Graham Hunter’s La Liga Preview: Barca bounce back to form, Real run riot and a 12/1 shot

Posted on January 18, 2015 by SoccerCapper

Almería v Barcelona, Saturday 3pm

When Almería manager Fran Rico woke up on Thursday morning he got just about the best news possible.

No, not that Valencia and Sevilla were loaning them back Álvaro Negredo and Aleix Vidal so that the two ex-Almería strikers could get scoring practice against Barça but that the Catalan expedition had been stranded in Amsterdam over night thanks to a broken down plane.

Unlike the board, fans, journalists and players’ families, the team didn’t have to sleep in Schipol airport – being shipped off to a friendly hotel at about 2.20 am.

FRAN-TASTIC NEWS: The Almeria boss will have welcomed Barca’s midweek travel woes

But given the well-known post-Champions League malaise [big team plays midweek, slumps the next weekend] old Frankie Rich [Señor Rico] would have been rubbing his hands in glee.

Iniesta out, two Liga defeats on the trot, Mathieu struggling for fitness, ditto Luis Suárez re match-sharpness – now a broken plane and broken night’s sleep.

But well might he pray.

Barcelona’s functional hotel in down-town Almería is a business and convention centre [the glamour!] and that’s just what they’ll want at the Estadio Juegos Mediterráneos – taking care of business and sticking to convention.

Almería have never beaten Barcelona home or away – that’s the convention.

VERZA OUT OF TUNE: Almeria will need Verza to find his scoring touch to beat Barca

Last season the Andaluz team produced shocks – defeating Atlético, Valencia and Real Sociedad. But here’s the rub. Verza scored four goals across those three big scalp removals but he’s got just one this season.

Of Almería’s three other leading scorers last season, Rodri, Vidal and Oscar Díaz they are now scattered across 1860 Munich, Sevilla and Valladolid.

Defender Oscar Trujillo [Born Madrid 1987] promised to make the game: “Ugly and long” for Barcelona and Almería have been heavily practising corners [from which two of their eight goals have come this season] and free kicks as their main weapons on Saturday afternoon.

An early game after a tiring European trip against a team scrapping for survival and promising to make the game a bit Quasimodo might give you a hunch for Almería upsetting the odds.

But Barcelona showed a new attitude in Amsterdam, worked brutally hard and looked like a side which knew precisely where they’d gone wrong in the previous two matches.

Particularly the moving of Suárez to centre-forward, from right wing, made Barça look potent again. Messi’s movement and form was, suddenly, joyous. I think Luis Enrique’s side might tuck this one away – back Messi [a double], Rakitic and Suárez even if he gets one coming off the bench.

Almeria 14/1, Barcelona 1/5, Draw 11/2 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

Liverpool v Chelsea MBS

Real Madrid v Rayo Vallecano, Saturday 7pm

This is where you have to feel a bit of sympathy for Paco Jémez. A year and a week ago these two clubs met, at the Vallecas, and it was a fabulous contest – 3-2 to Los Blancos. Carlo Ancelotti was so impressed with how Jemez’s team played – tactics, possession, attacking verve, pressing – that he got in touch with the former Spain centre-back and asked if he could come watch Rayo train one day. What an astonishing compliment. Spin it as you like but within a month Madrid were playing 4-3-3, thrilling with their intensity and en route to winning two trophies.

“We’ve got to applaud a team with such an enjoyable playing style” Ancelotti said Friday. “Rayo are a great example of what Spanish football stands for. “Despite fighting against relegation they play well and they play attackingly. “It’s a great thing, very, very positive”.

A RAYO OF INSPIRATION: Madrid’s minnows inspired Ancelotti last season

From that day to this Jemez has had to cope with losing 19 players, signing another 19 [they released or sold 13 in summer 2013 and signed 18 making it a gross turnaround of 71 players in two summers] yet still produce attractive, winning, tactically daring and technically admirable football. That he’ll one day be given charge of one of La Liga’s ‘grand’ clubs must now be a given.

For the moment, how does he cope with the world’s most in-form side?

Madrid-trained Alberto Bueno has a record of a goal every five games in La Primera and hasn’t scored for five so he might be worth a fiver anytime. Leo Baptistao is not only Rayo’s best player but suddenly in touch with the swagger and confidence he lost at parent club Atlético.

But when Los Blanco’s biggest test is how to re-incorporate the fit-again Gareth Bale then you can take it that a] this’ll be a cracker to watch and b] Madrid will hit three +

Rayo haven’t won at city neighbours Madrid since 1996 [their only away win in this fixture] and their scoring at the Bernabéu is a numerical palindrome – scored 15, conceded 51.

Bale will score, count on it, and backing Ronaldo may only be for dummies now given his mildly acceptable 17 goals in 9 league matches but, just for info, he’s got eight in six matches against Rayo.

Real Madrid 1/14, Rayo Vallecano 25/1, Draw 11/1 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

Valencia v Athletic Bilbao, Sunday 6pm

You’d forgive the Athletic players if they take garlic, lucky white heather, silver bullets, wooden stakes, kryptonite, rabbits feet and a bundle of three-leaved clovers [clovii?] to Valencia with them. It’s not that their away record to Los Che is utterly atrocious – just that the Mestalla has been a killing field for their dreams. They’d not been to any cup final for quarter of a century before the Copa Del Rey pitted them with Guardiola’s Barcelona at the Mestalla in 2009. One nil up became 4-1 down – heartbreak for the heart-bustingly proud and noisy Basque support.

VAL-HELLA: Bilbao have endured their fair share of heartbreak at the Mestalla

Aready massively disadvantaged by the loss of ex-Valencia star Aritz Aduriz, Athletic are in search of a lucky break. Aduriz has seven in all comps, without him Athletic have three goals in La Liga. Then when they were fighting for their Champions League lives in midweek a mole popped its head above ground just in time to nod the ball over keeper Gorka’s boot so that Yacine Brahimi could score into an open goal.

As for Valencia they’ve racked up the A-Z of wins. Total domination, wins from a 15 minute power play, wins when they are on the ropes… the sign of a happy, fit, well coached, well stocked team.

Their last three wins have all been by 3-1 [back that correct score again here at 12/1] with Pablo Piatti serving up six goals for team mates in those matches. Valencia have [including an Elche own goal] scored from six set plays in those three games. Shkodran Mustafi [a new German centre half] can’t stop scoring so if Mr Power is dozing this weekend, odds-wise, the stopper is worth a little tickle again at 25/1 as is Sofiane Feghouli who’s back in form. Time for a Paco Alcácer [in the Spain squad] goal too.

Valencia 8/13, Athletic Bilbao 9/2, Draw 14/5 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

Real Sociedad v Atlético, Sunday 8pm

It’s not grim oop north as far as Atleti are concerned. They’ve scored eleven times while winning their last four visits to the Anoeta.

But, this time, it’s got to be an Antoine Griezmann story. Picked up as a hopeful French kid by Real Sociedad when he was nowt but a lad [13] he became far and away their most exciting, most prolific player of recent seasons bagging over a half century of goals … before Atleti came calling. It’s funny, he’d got goals against all La Real’s other major rivals – Athletic, Real Madrid, Barcelona, Sevilla, Valencia. Just not Atlético. But they put a €24m bet on him and although Diego Simeone’s latest comment on him was that he needed to become a ‘more complete’ striker the kid is learning. Four goals in total, two last week in the win over Cordoba – he’d got to be a storybook banker to score on his return ‘home’. “I won’t celebrate if I do..”

TAKE A-NOETA: Real Sociedad’s one home win this season was against Real Madrd

Warning to the Spanish champions? La Real’s only home league win was against … the European champions and they gave them a two goal start.

As for the Basques, they’d like this to be the game before David Moyes takes over. They have a back up plan [Pepe Mel] but it’s the Scot they are determined to persuade. “That Jagoba Arrasate has been sacked is a disaster of our [the players’] making” commented captain Xabi Prieto. Presumably of the football director’s making too – selling Griezmann [sixteen goals last season] and buying Alfred Finnbogason [eight appearances and not a single goal yet]

Griezmann, Koke, Prieto and Raúl Garcia might feature on the ‘goal anytime’ menu for many this weekend.

Real Sociedad , Atlético Madrid, Draw – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

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Graham Hunter: How a Barca comeback could bag you a 19/1 winner in this week’s La Liga preview

Posted on January 18, 2015 by SoccerCapper

Valencia v Real Madrid – Sunday 4pm

Although you have to be a bit careful with your pronunciation, it’s an inescapable truth that football loves a bit of rancour.

Games with an ‘edge’, ‘bad blood’. Grudges.

Even though the last three Valencia Priméra División titles were won by coaches who were Real Madrid ‘purebloods’ (Alfredo di Stéfano in 1970/71 plus Rafa Benítez in 2001/2 and 2003/4) the animosity felt by Los Che towards Los Blancos has pushed this clash into the bronze medal position behind the Madrid derby and El Clásico. In terms of rancour.

Mestalla Stadium

Aside from two big clubs locking antlers every rutting season the special spice actually stems from the contentious move of Predrag Mijatovic from the Mestalla to Madrid as far back as 1996.

Valencia’s player of the season with 28 goals, and within a few months of becoming runner-up in the Ballon D’Or, he bought himself out of his [1,250 million peseta] contract and moved to the Bernabéu. Title first year, winning goal in the Champions League final the following. Cue increasing Valencian bitterness.

And football fans nurture grudges, keep them warm, hand them down to following generations.

Which is partly why there’s been a big internal debate at Los Che as to whether Madrid should or shouldn’t be given a guard of honour as they run out at the Mestalla on Sunday evening having made themselves World Club champions with their last game of 2014.

Valencia have a code – if their opponents have won the title, the Copa Del Rey or the Champions League they get applauded on to the pitch by Valencia’s players. The temptation, given that the World Club cup isn’t mentioned, was to set a hostile, ‘We’re Valencia, who the hell are you…?’ tone to the match.

Enzo Perez

The home side just spent their equal highest transfer fee to finally buy Enzo Pérez from Benfica [greeted by 8000 fans] and he’ll replace Javi Fuego in midfield.

Just to add to the match’s ‘bite’ it was Valencia’s 2-2 draw at Madrid last May which significantly helped cost Carlo Ancelotti’s mob the title.

For those who treasure numbers more than words six of the last seven of these Liga meetings at the Mestalla have resulted in five or more goals – 35 of them in total. Significantly, the only game in that run which did NOT yield five or more was the last time Valencia beat Madrid at home, 3-0 in 2009 thanks to the impact of Juan Mata, David Silva and David Villa.

Gareth Bale

Ronaldo, of course, and Benzema enjoy scoring against Valencia but if you want to look elsewhere Gareth Bale notched the goal of his career to win the Cup here last season, Isco was trained-up as a kid at the Mestalla but has never scored a Liga goal there while Álvaro Negredo was trained at Madrid and has three wins and four goals in 12 meetings with them since. At stake is Madrid’s run of 22 competitive matches unbeaten plus Liga leadership. Only four, not five, goals this time – and shared too!

Hunter’s Punt:

Gareth Bale to score anytime – evens

Valencia 5/1, Real Madrid 8/15, Draw 3/1 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

Real Sociedad v Barcelona – Sunday 8pm

So, imagine the scenario. Barça goes out for a right good bevvy with the lads on Hogmanay to celebrate the end of a damn awful 2014.

It’s good but wild and on New Year’s day heads are heavy, coffee is needed and there is talk of ‘hair of the dog’. Then Mrs Barça shrieks down the stairs ‘don’t forget you’ve got a game on Sunday’.

‘Who the bloody hell against?’ roars the hungover Barça from the sofa, ‘Just tell me it’s NOT Real Sociedad away … is it? ‘Please don’t let it be them …’

Think of this: across the decades Barcelona have been one of the world’s great clubs, consistently powerful. Yet only twice since the mid 1950’s have they won consecutive matches in San Sebastian.

Anoeta Stadium

No matter the gulf between the sides Real Sociedad somehow consistently come up with wins and draws. The last fifty years have seen only 12 away wins in 52 visits compared to twenty defeats and twenty draws. Indeed they’ve lost three and drawn the other in their last four Anoeta nightmares.

For those who’d like to think of another of those it may interest that neither Neymar nor Messi returned to training until Friday [with Luis Enrique’s permission] which would often be not soon enough to start. Perhaps the Barça coach views that subject totally differently. Equally, while La Real look beatable if Barcelona are on form it’s a stark fact that the Txuri-Urdin have beaten both Real Madrid and Atlético with high-octane performances already this season. The post-break training sessions have seen both Mikel González and Imanol Agirretxe back at work with the group but most attention will centre on whether Carlos Vela is fit to start [80/20].

David Moyes

This has the air of a Jack Spratt and his wife type of match. One of them could eat no fat, the other no lean. Barcelona consistently spend 45-60 minutes looking dull and sluggish in matches then [often] roar away with them or get late winners. On the other hand La Real don’t seem to have massive stamina and regularly start more brightly and then see opponents finishing with a flourish. Tempting to think of the match going lose-win for Barcelona in terms of half-time/full-time.

Hunter’s Punt:

Half-time/Full-time:: Real Sociedad/Barcelona – 19/1

A vital, vital match for the Blaugrana. Should they continue their recent habit of losing here and Madrid win at Valencia then Barça would probably be, at best, one more defeat away from kissing goodbye to the title. In January. Tempting to perm between Luis Suárez, Pedro, Messi [only three of his fifteen league goals away from home and no away goals since week 7 at Rayo], Alfie Finnbogason, Vela and Zurutuza for the goals. Over to ‘Mister’ Moyes.

Real Sociedad 7/1, Barcelona 1/3, Draw 9/2 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

Atlético v Levante – Saturday 3pm

Start the year by backing the champions to settle an old score.

Last May Levante kick-started the ‘just as well we’re wearing brown shorts anyway’ sequence of the La Liga run-in for Diego Simeone’s champions-elect with a 2-0 win – a sequence which saw Atleti squeak home despite only winning two of the last nine points on offer.

simeone_840

That defeat was in Valencia but even the equivalent of this match last season was only a well-contested 3-2 win for Los Colchoneros, causing Simeone to say on Friday:

“Levante are a tough bunch who know exactly how they want to try and play. “It’s a hard test for us and I expect a full, noisy stadium to try and inspire us.”

Stadium-noise and raucous support are usually to be taken for granted at the Calderón – there was a genuine ’12th man’ effect during the title win. But since the hooligan violence before the Depor match and efforts to squeeze the ‘Frente Atlético’ Ultras out there has been a seeping away of atmosphere, almost a divisive feel to the general mood. Perhaps New Year-old sentiments is what the manager most wants.

That, alongside the form they showed last time out in the second half away to Athletic when they hammered the Basques thanks to a Griezmann hat-trick [he’s zero for nine in matches against Levante in his career]. Mario Mandzukic and Koke both return from suspension but Miranda’s not fit and Fernando Torres doesn’t make this squad [paperwork]. Atleti keep on scoring from dead-ball situations so perhaps picking one of them for a first-goal isn’t a bad thought. “Atleti are intimidating at set-plays” admitted Levante coach Lucas Alcaraz before the match.

Gabi

As to the chances of a Gabi goal let’s just tell this straight as a die. Both he and Arda are at risk of missing next week’s huge match at the Camp Nou – a booking and they are suspended. Gabi is also one of 41 charged with fixing a match against Levante back in 2011, a match which saved his team, Zaragoza, from relegation thanks to Gabi’s two goals in a 1-2 win. Streetwise to leave him out for this one against Levante then? Perhaps … but would that be typical of the chin-out, ‘no-one pushes me around’ Cholo Simeone?

Perhaps it’s worth nothing that Levante have never won at the Calderón on league duty and they are third lowest scorers in La Liga, boasting the fine record of having failed to score in eight of their matches. David Navarro is suspended so 38 year-old Juanfran, sent off in this fixture last season, returns. Atleti lost their last home game of 2014. Unthinkable that they don’t put on a show and win by two clear here.

Hunter’s Punt:

Atletico Madrid -1 goal – 4/7

Atletico 1/5, Levante 12/1, Draw 11/2 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

Sevilla v Celta – Saturday 5pm

If you are perverse, if you hate the ‘obvious’ then this profiles as a guaranteed away win. Sevilla are Spain’s only team to get this far in the season unbeaten at home. The reigning Europa League champions haven’t lost at the Sanchez Pizjuan for sixteen matches. Celta, on the other hand, haven’t scored in the league for 575 minutes, losing all but one of their matches since the first day of November. Adding nicely to that stat is the fact that Nolito and Larrivey, authors of 12 of Celta’s 17 Liga goals thus far, are both suspended for this match.

Estadio Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan

So, there you have it. How can Celta possibly lose?

In fact since the Galicians returned to the Primera they’ve three wins and just one defeat to their higher-profile, more successful rivals.

To judge Sevilla’s readiness you’ll have to decide whether you’re a cup half-full/cup half-empty type of punter. Do they have the greatest chance of cobwebs given that they last played on December 14 because their match against Madrid was postponed? Or are they likely to be sharper, rested and fine-tuned, having been back in training since Boxing Day?

A special match for two diehard Celta fans in the Sevilla ranks, Denis Suárez and Iago Aspas, so football history suggests you back one of them for an ‘any-time’ goal. Back from injury, Charles should start up front for the visitors, Fabián Orellana gets the odd goal but for the romantics Borja Iglesias, prodigious in the youth team, debuts in the first team squad and if there’s to be a surprise it’d be kinda cool if he produced it. Form says home win though, perhaps 3-1.

Hunter’s Punt:

Sevilla to win 3-1 – 12/1

Sevilla 4/6, Celta Vigo 4/1, Draw 11/4 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

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Graham Hunter: What Arsenal fans should know about Alexis Sánchez and what Luis Suarez brings to Barca

Posted on July 11, 2014 by SoccerCapper

It all comes down to choices in the end.

Alexis Sánchez admitted to me the last time I interviewed him that his decision making when on the ball was still the part of his game which he most needed to improve.

Luis Suárez needs to choose to stop biting people. Or abusing them racially.

If each can fine-tune the synapses which have led them down the wrong road in the past then spectacular new chapters await them.

I’ve nailed my colours to the mast about each man in the past but, for those who have renewed interest because Alexis is now a Gooner and Suárez (above) with Barça.

Here goes…

There has been a tidal wave of appreciation for the Chilean since he scored that howitzer of a goal on the last day of the Spanish season – one which both looked improbable and, briefly, like it would Barcelona the title.

Alexis had a powerful World Cup, one which has naturally raised appreciation and expectation, but via performances which aren’t archetypical of his time at Barcelona.

What links him and Suárez, one of few things I think, is his infernal work attitude.

Playing against him can be a nightmare. In terms of his determination to press and win back possession you could compare him to an energetic puppy chasing a tennis ball. Non-stop, determined, agile, rapid – often successful in his task.

Even though he’s wealthy now (he funnels a lot of money back into helping the Tocopilla community in which he grew up) Sanchez (above) admitted to me there were times when the family had to choose between buying food or either boots or a football for him.

Times were hard and he’s never lost that drive to succeed. He’d tell his mum that he was going to be a world-famous footballer and that he’d earn enough money for her to never have to work again and she’d laugh. And indulge him. And now look at him.

That same abundance of pace and energy lets him ‘show’ for run after run which will allow the passers in Arsenal’s midfield, Ramsey, Wilshire and Özil in particular, many more options about what to dow the ball in the two or three seconds after they receive it.

Some of his goals, notably that one against Atlético Madrid or the winner in last season’s Camp Nou Clásico, when he chipped Diego López after running from midfield, indicate that he’s got some truly spectacular finishes in his locker.

Yet while I’ve no wish to pour cold water on the bubbling excitement of Arsenal fans who presumably feel that Alexis could be a key element in finally winning the Premier League again, this is an incomplete player.

The Alexis who scored at Wembley to defeat England, who led Chile’s fightback against Brazil at the World Cup – this is not the identical forward who’s been at the Camp Nou for the last three years.

For Chile he was a leader…

When he arrived he was daunted by the big club atmosphere, by playing with Messi, by the insane media attention which Barcelona generates.

His play showed it. He’d score unfeasibly difficult goals and miss unfeasible numbers of run-of-the-mill chances.

He’d have a game where his understanding with Cesc would look like some form of footballing E.S.P and many more when he’d make wrong choices, go down blind alleys – allow energy to get the better of intelligence.

For Chile he’s a leader up front – his decisions take precedence over those around him, his runs are fed with passes, he’s the lone wolf. That suits him.

For Barcelona, less so…

At Barcelona Alexis constantly wrestled with the concept of whether he was supposed to be a lead actor pushing for the Oscar or simply the ‘best supporting’ guy. In each of his seasons he could, and should, have had nine or ten more goals and I have always believed that with the rise in importance of Alexis at Barcelona their absolute cutting edge in the biggest of games (Stamford Bridge in 2012 would be an example) has decreased.

My hope is that this World Cup, increasing personal and football maturity, plus the range of terrific passers around him paves the way for Arsenal fans to enjoy Alexis more than I’ve enjoyed him while playing in La Liga.

Suarez is a different beast…

Suárez is obviously different. His ruthlessness is patently a stand-out characteristic – constantly battling with his technique and football intelligence for pre-eminence in that strangely-wired brain of his.

His footballing fit at Barcelona is, you’d say, still clearer than that of Alexis at Arsenal.

Suárez brings precisely the intensity, the will-to-win which Pep Guardiola saw waning as far back as spring 2012 when he chose to leave.

The Uruguayan’s goal record doesn’t stand comparison with that of Messi, he’s no more skilled than Messi, Iniesta, Xavi or Neymar for example – but he brings a ferocity, an all-out dedication to winning every ball, ever match, every trophy which seems unabated.

Carlo Ancelotti840

Carlo deals with talent ‘overload’

Over the last three years he’s won two trophies, the League Cup and the Copa America, and this isn’t commensurate either with his ability or with the lava-hot moment of form which he’s in.

This is, principally, what Barcelona have bought. Right now the Catalan media is toeing the party lines.

They are whipping up support for the idea that Suárez’s ban is unfair, they are playing on the fact that Barcelona fans love to see players who will sweat blood for the jersey – there’s next to no questioning about whether this man’s behaviour over the last few years merits this club investing so much money in him.

Coincidentally, it’s probably Real Madrid who have done most to show that the problem of fitting an ‘overload’ of talent into an already star-laden team can be dealt with.

Carlo Ancelotti didn’t have a voice in the signing of Gareth Bale and tinkered with formations for weeks and weeks before finally moving Ángel Di Maria back to midfield and using Bale, Benzema and Cristiano Ronaldo in a front three for much of the rest of the season while Madrid won the Copa Del Rey and Champions League.

It won’t necessarily be simple to fit Leo Messi, Neymar and Suárez together – but there are ways. Messi, for example, could easily play at no10 in a 4-2-3-1 which, hypothetically, could look like Bravo: Alves, Piqué, Bartra, Alba; Mascherano, Busquets; Iniesta, Messi, Neymar; Suárez.

How will Barcelona play with Suarez?

Perhaps Luis Enrique will simply ask Messi and Neymar to play wide right and left with Suárez down the middle – he’s got the cojones to front up to his super-star players and tell them the ‘way it’s going to be’.

But enforcing it and making it succeed are two different things.

Quite how Barcelona have gone from a club trying to breath real life into its motto ‘Més que un Club’ and fielding teams which were largely home grown, unified in ethos and exemplified by the behaviour of Carles Puyol when he insisted that his cancer-surviving team mate Eric Abidal raise the Champions League trophy in his place to hiring a serial biter is a little depressing.

But once Suárez serves his ban it’s time for a new leaf and a new start.

Then, in light of the decisions Alexis and Suárez begin to make on and off the pitch, it’ll be clearer where the winners and losers in these deals, from Barcelona, Liverpool, Arsenal, La Liga and the Premier League may be.

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Graham Hunter: Sit back and soak it up – how the Premier League’s attempt at Barça Mk II can hurt Martino’s vulnerable team

Posted on March 3, 2014 by SoccerCapper

Manchester City v Barcelona, Etihad Stadium, Tuesday 19.45

The north west of England is a place of beginnings and endings for FC Barcelona and some of their players. Pep Guardiola’s last, inglorious, European game as a player for the team he’d supported all his life and let to European Cup glory at Wembley in 1992 came at Anfield.

Gerrard

There’s this utterly superb picture of a young, exuberant Steven Gerrard (above) chasing over to Guardiola to roar triumphantly as the Catalan trooped, dejectedly off the pitch back in 2001. Out of the Uefa Cup, out of the club six weeks later.

Guardiola’s time as coach was ushered in by another ‘ending’ this time at Old Trafford when Paul Scholes (fan footage below) crashed that semi-final winning goal past Victor Valdés in United’s Champions League winning season of 2007/8.

That truly was that for Frank Rijkaard, Ronaldinho and Deco their reign as European Champions already having been rudely stripped away from them by Liverpool in 2007, just a few short months after victory over Arsenal in Paris hinted that Barcelona, with Ronaldinho the best player in the world, might be starting a golden era. Not the case.

And Andres Iniesta freely admits his brilliant volleyed goal for Spain against England at Old Trafford in 2007 was an exponential leap forward in confidence and robust self belief because, until then, La Roja viewed the hard-running, aggressive English as one of their most threatening and intimidating rivals.

Match betting: Can the ‘new Barca’ beat the ‘old Barca?

Yes, it could now be the end of an era

If Tuesday night’s game against Manchester City is a defeat, and one which is the gateway to elimination in three weeks, then it will be a categorical ‘end’ to the current golden era.

Not the end for Leo Messi, Pedro, Cesc, Busquets, Iniesta and Alba as Barcelona players but a punctuation point at the end of an era which has seen the bulk of this group reach 13 knockout finals (Champions League, Copa del Rey, European SuperCup or World Club Cup) in the last ten years (more than Manchester United and Real Madrid combined).

If this group were to follow their 7-0 humiliation by Bayern Munich last season with their first elimination at this stage since 2007 it will be time for the kind of ‘re-start’ which began in summer 2008 with Guardiola’s arrival, the sale of Ronaldinho and the promotion of a clutch of young bucks.

What do the Spanish champions require to do to avoid all that happening?

One of the biggest compliments to that era of Camp Nou dominance is that a great deal of what City (and Bayern) do is simply a re-branding of Barcelona’s 2008-2012 football but with younger, bigger and more athletic players than the Catalans currently have in their squad.

Barça reboot? Barça Mark II. Call it what you will.

The lads were unreal and the fans were class! Over the moon right now! Tottenham 1 – 5 @MCFC ! #MCFC pic.twitter.com/UOsNEphbCZ

— Vincent Kompany (@VincentKompany) January 29, 2014

Barca vulnerable from corners

It obviously means that Tata Martino’s team will be vulnerable from corners, free kicks and open play if Vincent Kompany (above), Yaya Touré, Álvaro Negredo, Fernandinho and their ilk are allowed to compete for headers on goal.

The Johan Cruyff diktat, which was copied by Guardiola when he became coach, was:

‘Do NOT give away corners or free kicks anywhere near our own penalty area’

Can this team become that disciplined again? Switch back on the good habits which have been switched off for a couple of seasons?

The fundamental cornerstone of the ‘great’ Barcelona eras was always to create numerical superiority in midfield. Via the full backs pushing forward, via the centre half wandering as far forward with the ball as he dared, using the ‘third-man’ move, via the wingers dropping back into midfield if necessary.

Father Time waits for no man

Now, because of a drop in the efficacy of Barcelona’s pressing high up the pitch, because Father Time and his debilitating effects wait for no man.

Often the shakiness which has become apparent in Barça’s defending (the goals against stats are clear in Europe but almost unchanged domestically from Guardiola’s time) has its root in the midfield either being over-run or not adequately chasing back when possession is lost.

Martino is going to try to ‘flood’ the midfield in Manchester. Often Barcelona’s shape will look like 3-5-2 – two central defenders and one full back with one full back pushed into a middle line already staffed by Busquets, Xavi (above for Spain), Iniesta and Cesc.

“Whover has the least possession is going to suffer,” was Martino’s ominous prediction.

City deserve to be favourites

City’s left hand side, probably Samir Nasri (above), will have fun. Xavi finds it hard to press and harrass as effectively as he once did and Dani Alves loves to go for a wander upfield. The return journey is often conducted via a guilty trot while others attempt to put out the fires.

City, it seems to me, deserve to be favourites (15/8) to win this leg of the tie particularly given that since losing 1-0 to Wisla Kraków (UCL third qualifying round second leg) back in 2008 Barça have played 15 further away knockout ties in the competition proper – only winning three.

The other results comprise seven draws and six defeats. But there are distinct plus-points for Barcelona.

Martino pledged, from day one, that his training and squad rotation would be aimed at having his players fighting fit for the business end of the season. That starts now.

Fancy Graham’s tips? Dive into the latest Manchester City v Barcelona odds here

My tips for this game

Fabregas has never been more prolific for goals and assists, Leo Messi (above) has 10 goals and seven assists in eleven games this year and, above all, Andres Iniesta is playing with livewire fizz and energy right now.

If Barcelona take your eye then perhaps Iniesta or Jordi Alba are succulent outside bets for a goal. Another would be to look at Javier Mascherano’s tendency to be caught the wrong side, to have to lunge in… a penalty for City isn’t a remote probability (10/3 with Paddy Power).

Overall, Europe is lucky that so many club and national sides now want to emulate the brand of football which the Blaugrana exhibited so exceptionally over the last six years.

Shame if it were to end now. But at least they face the Premier League’s attempt at Barça Mk II. Sit back and soak it up.

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Graham Hunter: The glaring problems Barca have ignored — or worsehttp://paddypowerblog.wordpress.com/wp-admin/post-new.php?post_type=post — not yet identified

Posted on May 7, 2013 by SoccerCapper

Graham Hunter byline

Spanish football expert and author of Barca, Graham Hunter, addresses the big questions for the Paddy Power Blog after Barcelona’s big defeat to Bayern Munich.

The two questions I’ve most-often been asked since the Champions League semi-final demolition of Spain’s representatives by the physique and technique of the Bundesliga are:

“Is this a total power-shift in European football?”
“What the hell do Bayern need Pep Guardiola for? I bet he wishes the season hadn’t gone like this.”

The latter idea shows how short some memories are or, at least, how some people simply judge on what they last saw rather than delving deeper into a subject.

Nobody of sane mind would ignore the brutal way in which Barcelona’s current deficiencies were exposed by the Bavarians, nor can there be anything other than admiration for the relentless way in which Jupp Heynckes’ team has pursued what may, surprisingly, become the first treble in their remarkable history.

With all due respect to Dortmund, who will traipse in second to Bayern in the Bundesliga and who gave up their German Cup defence to the same team, it is the AllianzArena club which is world number one.

No question so, having made that clear let’s not forget that it’s only 12 short months since Bayern felt exactly like Barcelona do right now.

Just 12 months since a Bavarian disaster

They lost the German title to Dortmund by 11 points, calamitously failed to put Chelsea to bed in the Champions League final and blew the German Cup final 5-2 to Jurgen Klopp’s side, despite Martio Gotze not playing and Roman Weidenfeller needing to be substituted after half an hour.

That night Bayern used Neuer, Lahm, Alaba, Boateng, Schweinsteiger, Ribéry, Robben, Gómez, Thomas Muller plus the currently injured Toni Kroos and Holger Badstuber. Most of the troops who just trod all over Barcelona.

In Bavaria the season was seen as something approaching a disaster, certainly deeply humiliating. Just 12 months ago. Meanwhile, Dortmund had played like dumplings in Europe. Bottom of their group, five points behind third-placed Olympiakos, they’d been beaten home and away by Marseille, mustering only four points and conceding 12 goals in a group Arsenal won.

I’d wager that nobody of any vision or sense condemned either of the Bundesliga’s big two as “finished”, or believed that those events signalled an end to the general rise and rise of German football.

PUZZLING TIMES: Do Barca need Neymar? Losing Gotze is a huge Dortmund blow. Pep was hired for repeated success at Bayern. Barca have suffered badly without the likes of ironman Carles Puyol

Four points for the dim-of-wit…

Thus it’s time, despite the brutality of the results for Barcelona and Real Madrid, to make sure that any conclusions drawn about Barcelona this week are reliable rather than rabid.

It’s at least relevant contextually that in Carles Puyol, Javier Mascherano, (Jordi Alba) and Eric Abidal, Barcelona were missing four world-class defensive footballers who, if fit, would at minimum added power, experience, pace and aggression to the woeful work which brought them a seven-goal aggregate defeat.
The world’s greatest footballer was as good as absent from all 180 minutes of the matches.
Sergio Busquets may not be to everyone’s tastes but when he plays well, Barcelona rock. Like Messi, also because of injury, he was as good as absent from the tie.
Tito Vilanova, a first-year rookie who has just returned from a near three-month battle against cancer made a number of downright weird decisions which analysis of the cataclysmically bad defeat begs for more information.

Now, wait, I know that the short-of-attention and the dim-of-wit will already be misinterpreting all this and getting ready to tweet in rage. So let’s recap.
Bayern were superb. Bayern are currently much more powerful, quick and competitive than the Spanish champions-elect.

The seven-goal margin didn’t flatter them. But if people want to rip Barça’s current squad and their likely future to shreds then a touch of restraint, context and caution are needed.

I know what you bought last summer

Bayern bought Dante, Mandzukic and Javi Martinez last summer and radically strengthened themselves. This route is available to Barcelona. With a proper centre-half added, with height introduced to one of the full-back positions, an aggressive, hard-working, top-class centre forward and the majority of the current squad fully fit Barcelona will be, at least, competitive again and contenders to not only give Bayern or Dortmund a decent game but to win the Champions League next May.

However, here are the trends which are more persuasive, more influential. Bayern’s strategy and intelligence, to me, are very reminiscent of the brilliant building of Barcelona from 2003 onwards when the Joan Laporta era, even with the odd blip, returned flair, power, success and thrills to the Camp Nou. There is a philosophy, there is ambition, there is consistency and both transfer records and wage structures are being broken.

They have seriously damaged Dortmund by snaffling Gotze and if they add Robert Lewandowski too it’s a huge double whammy. Pep Guardiola was hired not to have a decent season in 2013/14 or to fight off Dortmund. No, the Catalan has been put on the staff in order to try to increase the chances that Bayern repeatedly win the Champions League and become Europe’s dominant force for a handful of years. The fact that he’s inheriting a powerful side is unquestionably in his favour — not an obstacle.

Have Barca not spotted their problems?

At Barcelona you get a strong impression that notable problems: player fatigue, the absence of height, power and pace and the absolute glaring requirement for one, perhaps two aerially excellent defenders, are being ignored. Or worse, is it feasible they haven’t been identified?

Moreover the determination to prioritise the purchase of Neymar appears blind to the fact that however good the Brazilian may be he’s far from anything like the most important kind of signing Barca need to make right now.

Also, it’s a signing which has the hallmarks of something which could undermine Leo Messi’s sense of well-being at the Camp Nou.

Barcelona took a right hook to the jaw this week. It landed because they’ve dropped their guard and been leading with their chin. But so long as the decision-making process at the Catalan club now starts to match the quality of thinking in Bavaria it’s only a knockdown, not a knockout.

Read football insight with real passion — more from Graham Hunter on the Paddy Power Blog
Mischief makers: Have you read Guido Fawkes, Not Big Sam, FourFourTom, Joey Barton and Paul Galvin yet?

Who’s your money on for the Champions League Final then? >Get the latest odds right here<

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Graham Hunter: The glaring problems Barca have ignored — or worse — not yet identified

Posted on May 2, 2013 by SoccerCapper

Graham Hunter byline

Spanish football expert and author of Barca, Graham Hunter, addresses the big questions for the Paddy Power Blog after Barcelona’s big defeat to Bayern Munich.

The two questions I’ve most-often been asked since the Champions League semi-final demolition of Spain’s representatives by the physique and technique of the Bundesliga are:

“Is this a total power-shift in European football?”
“What the hell do Bayern need Pep Guardiola for? I bet he wishes the season hadn’t gone like this.”

The latter idea shows how short some memories are or, at least, how some people simply judge on what they last saw rather than delving deeper into a subject.

No question so, having made that clear let’s not forget that it’s only 12 short months since Bayern felt exactly like Barcelona do right now.

Just 12 months since a Bavarian disaster

PUZZLING TIMES: Do Barca need Neymar? Losing Gotze is a huge Dortmund blow. Pep was hired for repeated success at Bayern. Barca have suffered badly without the likes of ironman Carles Puyol

Four points for the dim-of-wit…

Thus it’s time, despite the brutality of the results for Barcelona and Real Madrid, to make sure that any conclusions drawn about Barcelona this week are reliable rather than rabid.

It’s at least relevant contextually that in Carles Puyol, Javier Mascherano, (Jordi Alba) and Eric Abidal, Barcelona were missing four world-class defensive footballers who, if fit, would at minimum added power, experience, pace and aggression to the woeful work which brought them a seven-goal aggregate defeat.
The world’s greatest footballer was as good as absent from all 180 minutes of the matches.
Sergio Busquets may not be to everyone’s tastes but when he plays well, Barcelona rock. Like Messi, also because of injury, he was as good as absent from the tie.
Tito Vilanova, a first-year rookie who has just returned from a near three-month battle against cancer made a number of downright weird decisions which analysis of the cataclysmically bad defeat begs for more information.

The seven-goal margin didn’t flatter them. But if people want to rip Barça’s current squad and their likely future to shreds then a touch of restraint, context and caution are needed.

I know what you bought last summer

Have Barca not spotted their problems?

Also, it’s a signing which has the hallmarks of something which could undermine Leo Messi’s sense of well-being at the Camp Nou.

Read football insight with real passion — more from Graham Hunter on the Paddy Power Blog
Mischief makers: Have you read Guido Fawkes, Not Big Sam, FourFourTom, Joey Barton and Paul Galvin yet?

Who’s your money on for the Champions League Final then? >Get the latest odds right here<

Want £200 Free? Click here to visit Bet365 and claim your free money.

El Clasico betting preview: I’m tipping Ronaldo to score but Barca won’t lose

Posted on April 6, 2013 by SoccerCapper

Graham Hunter byline

If any of the maths teachers I inadvertently tortured at Cults Academy are either still alive or not in the padded cell of a warm, caring asylum, driven there in foaming rage by my inability to assimilate basic numeric rules, they’ll be shocked rigid that this week’s column centres on numbers. Or at least statistics. Make of them what you will.

There are human stories aplenty ahead of the 83rd La Liga ‘Clasico’ at the Camp Nou when Barcelona entertain Real Madrid this Sunday night.

Sergio Ramos is sticking long, sharp knitting needles in a wax effigy of Jose Mourinho while the Special One is affecting nonchalance.
Carles ‘Robocop’ Puyol has suffered his third major injury of the season (fractured cheek, knee ligaments and now dislocated elbow)
Gerard Pique’s ankle is (at the time of writing) making him look as stable as Bambi on ice skates.

This means Barca will take to the field at the Camp Nou with a pair of central defenders who are as quick on the turn as a ‘Thatcher at a Party Political Conference‘ (it’s a technical football term).

Good luck Javi Mascherano and Alex Song. Win, lose or draw, have two aspirins and a wee brandy waiting for you in the dressing room at full time.

Carles Puyol in hospital after his freak injury in the Champions League

IRON MAN: But Puyol misses El Clasico after his freak Champions League injury

We’ve had two classic Clasicos already

Already this term we’ve savoured two classic Clasicos. I defy anyone to argue that the explosive cocktail of brilliant football, errors, passion, noise, red cards and bookings wasn’t utterly seductive during Madrid’s 4-4 away-goals trophy win back in August.

Now, here we are again.

This first Clasico is weeks earlier than normal (more than two months earlier than last season) to allow the second league meeting to take place before the crucial moment in April. Then, both clubs want to be competing in the UEFA Champions League semi-finals but don’t want to be left looking like the cast of Dad’s Army (something which cost each of them dearly against Chelsea and Bayern Munich six months ago).

That, in itself, tells you something about the degree to which the vast economic attraction of success in Europe is beginning to edge ahead of the absolute need for domestic supremacy.

So it’s even more surprising that we hit this ‘early bird’ Clasico with Barcelona already enjoying an eight-point cushion over their rivals. Just 26 times in the 83 Liga Clasicos at Camp Nou have Barcelona kicked off with any points advantage at all over Madrid.

MANE MAN: Cristiano Ronaldo has a formidable record against Barcelona

Barcelona on top in recent derbies

Of the last 17 Clasicos (2008-now), at either stadium, Barcelona have won 10 and only lost three. That’s a remarkable statistic which might point to pundits and punters alike backing the home side on Sunday – particularly given that a victory would put Barça a massive 11 points clear of, traditionally, their most dedicated rival for the Spanish title.

Whether establishing that double-figure gap as early as October could feasibly rule Madrid out of repeating their Liga win of last season (I’d say ‘yes’) remains to be seen. However, the only precedent for Barcelona taking an exact eight-point advantage into the first Clasico is from 1990/91. Then, the Catalans won 2-1 and did indeed go on to lift the title.

Nevertheless, what that positive win-ratio for Barça over the last 17 meetings hides is the equally remarkable fact that Los Blaugrana have regularly tied their hands behind their back before, often, going on to inflict damage on Los Blancos.

For example, on nine of those occasions Madrid have scored first. If you add the missed penalty by Samuel Eto’o in Pep Guardiola’s first ‘derbi’ against Madrid as Barcelona coach when the score was 0-0, it’s evidence that Barca like to do things the hard way.

Obviously there was a long spell when that didn’t matter. It became as if Barça either chose to, or needed to handicap themselves before kicking into action. Now things have changed. Even across the first few meetings when Jose Mourinho was in charge, Madrid mostly played Barcelona without any clear conviction that they were going to win… nor even to compete to win. That has been shrugged off, particularly at Camp Nou where there is no impetus for Real Madrid to make the play, where they can inflict their rapid transitions from either defence when a Barca attack breaks down or when they rob the ball in midfield, Madrid are once again clear in what they need to do and confident in their ability to do it.

HE’S COME A LONG WAY: Iniesta (pictured in 2003) has yet to lose a Clasico in which he’s scored

If Los Blancos are allowed a lead these days, they are likely to convert it. Just at this moment they are patently only beginning to approach their very best. There has been a gradual return towards pace, precision, focus, aggression and efficacy but the champions spent some weeks a distance off their ‘A’ game.

For Barcelona Leo Messi is playing frustratingly deep and doesn’t look as crisp as usual. Messi has still produced 10 goals this season and has conjured his team’s last four assists. He’s different gravy. Equally, Andrés Iniesta, who is still to lose any match for Spain or Barcelona where he has scored, is only just back after injury – can he be a determining factor?

The balance of probabilities is that the pattern of the last five Camp Nou Clasicos offers a good guide.

Results of the last five Camp Nou games between Barcelona and Real Madrid

1-1 (Champions League)
3-2 (Supercopa)
2-2 (Copa)
1-2 (Liga)
3-2 (Supercopa)

Tight games, single goal winning margins. This game isn’t only called El Clasico, it’s also known as ‘El Derbi‘ and, like all great derby matches, totally remarkable things can happen.

But having said that, Ronaldo now has four goals in his last four Camp Nou visits. He also has two consecutive hat-tracks – against Deportivo La Coruna and Ajax. Ronaldo is beginning to re-establish the partnership he most enjoys at Real Madrid, with Karim Benzema.

I’d pick CR7 to score again, for there to be at least one red card, Barcelona not to lose and the league to go to them if they win. There, that’s that sorted. Now all you need to do is stock up on the beer, the chorizo nibbles, get your punt sorted, then relax and watch all of that come true word for word.

Hasta Domingo!

El Clasico

More Graham Hunter columns

Graham Hunter is a Barcelona-based, British soccer writer whose passionate insight on La Liga can regularly be seen and heard on TV and radio. He also writes for the Paddy Power Blog on Spanish football. Follow Graham on twitter here.

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Why Celtic must beware of bare-knuckle fighters Barca

Posted on April 6, 2013 by SoccerCapper

Graham Hunter byline

Spanish football expert Graham Hunter previews the Champions League game between Celtic and Barcelona at Parkhead on November 7

The scouts and coaches who prepare to play FC Barcelona usually tear their hair out with tactical questions. To attack, to press, to hold a high line, to defend if they grab a lead, to play one up front, to use wingers to crowd out Barca’s marauding full backs, to double-mark Lionel Messi – it’s a never-ending list.

This time, however, there are two over-riding messages which Neil Lennon will need his troops to assimilate, understand and apply.

Don’t give the ball away
Keep your guard up late in the match

Why? Well, allow me to explain.

When Tito Vilanova’s side won 3-1 at home to Celta Vigo at the weekend they registered what is, statistically at least, their best-ever start to a Liga season. That’s one hell of a stat.

But, honestly, they are performing at about 80% of capacity – conceding quite a high number of home goals, having to fight back from a deficit five times in all competitions and only occasionally flaring into their luminous, brilliant best.

Barca v Celtic first game at Nou Camp 2012

However, what is blindingly obvious that is that even when their form is being dragged down by constant injuries (Piqué, Puyol, Alves, Adriano, Alexis and Iniesta are all examples this season) the winning mentality this season is that of a bare-knuckle boxer.

So far this term Barca have scored 47 times in all competitions – of those, a remarkable 18 have been scored in the last 20 minutes of matches, whether they are losing, drawing or winning. That’s 38% of all goals this season notched when other teams are easing down mentally and physically.

Better still, 12 of those goals have come in the last 10 minutes – the late, late show when Jordi Alba dashed the hopes of Neil Lennon’s team at the Camp Nou wasn’t a fluke. And to those of us who watch them regularly it wasn’t a particular surprise either.

Chew on this: on the last two Barca visits to Parkhead Barca have scored three times in each game and of the six goals, three have come in the last quarter of an hour.

Wanyama highlights Barca danger

Most people are of the old cliche — glass half-full, glass half-empty life view. So some will ask if it’s a failing of Barca’s to need so many late goals and, perhaps, when you ally the tendency to the fact that the world champions have trailed this season to Celtic, Spartak, Osasuna, Sevilla and Real Madrid before coming back to win each of those games it’s true that they aren’t defending brilliantly.

However, if you accept that what it stems from is an unquenchable thirst to be scoring goals irrespective of how the match stands and accept that it’s an indication of Barca’s mental and physical toughness then, net, this tendancy is a positive.

So is their capacity to sieze upon mistakes. I spent last Monday talking at great length with Celtic’s midfielder Victor Wanyama. He’s only 21 and, with his brother, only the second Kenyan to play in the Champions League. He’s already in the top three Celtic players this season and has an increased chance of wreaking havoc given that the organiser of Barca’s midfield, Sergio Busquets, is absent.

What did Wanyama learn about playing Barca two weeks ago before he swapped shirts with Andres Iniesta?

The fact is that we have to give the ball away much less than we did. Great teams are just waiting for one error, one gift of possession and then they take advantage.

Barca boosted by Pique return

Whether Neil Lennon chooses to replicate two of the great Champions League performances under Gordon Strachan (beating Milan 2-1 and Manchester United 1-0) by playing cautiously and then converting clinically when the slightest chance emerges or chooses to try to run Barca off their feet it’s crucial Celtic are almost flawless when they have the ball, not just when they are defending.

For the visitors it’s clearly a boost Gerard Piqué is back, altough I know he feels he’ll be touch-and-go for this match after nearly one month out.

Equally the fact that the kick on the knee which Leo Messi took late in the Celta victory hasn’t ruled him out is a major factor in betting that Barca will impose themselves and win.

Are they invulnerable? No way. But do they bring a bagful of tricks and a habit of pulling off final flourishes under pressure? Yes, definitely.
Stand by for a big match and don’t, whatever you do, blink when the clock is ticking towards the 90th minute.

Betting: Celtic vs Barcelona
More from Graham Hunter

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King Pep is back — here’s what it means for Chelsea, Bayern, Barca, Mourinho, you and me

Posted on April 6, 2013 by SoccerCapper

Graham Hunter reveals the ripple effects caused by Pep Guardiola’s move to Bayern Munich

I don’t know of anyone who can prove Sir Isaac Newton was a Bayern Munich fan but I’m nearly sure the 18th century physicist had something like Pep Guardiola’s sudden decision to sign for the Bavarians in mind when he came up with this third law of motion; that for each and every action there will be an equal and opposite reaction.

Joy, bratwurst sandwiches, steins of strong lager and plans to dominate the Champions League forever in most of Bavaria.

Bitter tears, recriminations, thousand-yard stares and loud ‘why oh, oh, whys’ in Russian and Arabic haunting the Premier League.

That sort of thing.

So if Pep Guardiola (41) is the pebble which breaks the water’s surface and sends ripples spreading out in all directions — who all gets their feet wet?

BOO, HISS: Abramovich has been left with Rafa Benitez at Chelsea, but not for long

#1. What happens now at Chelesa with Rafa Benitez and will Abramovich leave?

You have to wonder whether comrade Abramovich bent a few solid gold teaspoons in impotent rage yesterday, pushed away the side plate of beluga caviar and kicked the cat?

The Russian’s desire to import Barça-style football to Stamford Bridge is well established and having failed to persuade Guardiola last May the door was left firmly open for the Catalan to step in, and earn wealth beyond any normal man’s dreams, from this summer onwards.

Rafa Benitez’s interim appointment until the end of this season spoke volumes about the Chelsea owner’s confidence that by buying diminutive, technically gifted players like Oscar, Hazard, Mata and, I hear, Isco in the next transfer market he could sway Guardiola.

Txiki Begiristain, now in charge of Manchester City’s football direction but once Guardiola’s boss at Barça also said “no” to Abramovich. That’s not a good indication of how much these smart, successful football philosophers trust Chelsea’s strategy and consistency under Abramovich’s rule.

Nor did Benitez pick a particularly good night for his team to draw 2-2 with relegation strugglers Southampton. Booed off the pitch after a performance which means the European Champions have now won just one of their seven home Premier League matches under the Spaniard can only have served to implant another thorn in Abramovich’s side.

If either the Russian wants shot of Benitez by the end of the season or if the former Real Madrid youth team coach gets the call to return to the Bernabéu then what is the Chelsea owner left with?

Carlo Ancelotti’s title win wasn’t sufficient to appease him, Roberto Di Matteo’s remarkable Champions League odyssey had a five month feel-good factor and now Guardiola has chosen a walk near the Black Forest ahead of walking down the King’s Road. (With apologies to all fans of Horst Jankowski and the mod band Squire)

Where does Abramovich turn? Is it feasible that with the fans booing the club for its treatment of Frank Lampard, for the sacking of Di Matteo, for the run of sterile home performances and now with the rejection of Guardiola stinging worse than a paper-cut the Russian billionaire might, just, start to feel his comittment to the club ebbing away?

CONTRACT TIME: Sergio Busquets could fancy a move north. And bring his pepper with him

#2. Who will be the first Barcelona player to move to Bayern?

Obviously, there were always going to be repercussions at Guardiola’s Alma Mater.

The first came for poor old Tito Vilanova on Wednesday night, after Barça’s 2-2 draw against 10-man Málaga, when his press conference was pretty much hijacked by Spanish, Catalan, Italian and German journalists. All wanted to ask him about his friend and former boss signing for the Bavarians more than about the surprise home draw in the Copa del Rey quarter final.

There wasn’t any doubting Vilanova’s sincerity when, in order, he stated that a) he hadn’t known anything about it despite having met Guardiola in New York last week b) he was utterly delighted that a force for good in football was returning to the top level of the European game and c) that Bayern appeared a smart choice for Pep given that it was one of the all-time great football clubs.

But it didn’t take long for him to look a little piqued that the tantalising cup quarter final was being relegated to second place … or that Guardiola’s every move at Bayern looms as being a subject for every fourth or fifth question of each damn press conference next season.

More seriously, of course, there is the question about whether any key men at the Camp Nou — technical staff or stellar playing talents — might migrate and fly north in the summer?

Victor Valdés is in the throes of contract re-negotiations as is Sergio Busquets. The Barça Academy is full of glowing young tyro-talents — prime for plucking by Pep.

Normally Barça treat all that as an occupational hazard of forming exceptional young players and haggle for big fees which are then pumped back into youth development.

But it was only 48 hours ago that FCB President Sandro Rosell alleged Manchester City had been attempting to wave petrodollars in the direction of some Barça talent. Whether his attempt to boom out a ‘hands-off’ message was convincing remains to be seen.

If I were either the agent of Valdés, Busquets or anyone in line for an imminent contract renewal I’d be dancing a feverish jig of joy right now to the tune of ‘We’re in the money, we’re in the money…”

SPECIAL ONE: Difficult times for Jose Mourinho at Real and Bayern are a huge foe

#3. Will Jose move to Germany just to get piss Pep off?

Now the Special One has always had a devilish sense of humour and, equally, he’s always boasted about being the only man capable of picking off major trophies in Portugal, England, Italy and Spain. So perhaps next season he’ll head-hunt Bochum or SpVgg Greuther Fürth, demand the manager’s job and storm into the Bundesliga title fight just to get under Pep’s skin again. Don’t pretend you weren’t already thinking about him doing something like that.

As for the ripples in the pond reaching President Pérez’s toes, it might not be a bad thing. Bayern are already Madrid’s most redoutable European foe.

And not just because of Los Blancos’ elimination at the hands of FCB in the Champions League semi final last April. Of Madrid’s twenty Champions’ Cup meetings with Bayern they’ve only won seven and the goals scored are 33-26 in the Bavarian’s favour.

So for them to add the arch anti-Madridista in Guardiola, with the guarantee that Bayern’s attention to detail and ruthlessness when it comes to winning trophies will increase, it must seem a trifle ominous to the President of the Spanish champions.

Moreover Bayern, like Barça, have a guiding football and business philosophy which is starkly different to Madrid’s and the Bundesliga leaders also put enormous faith in their own youth development policies. Time for Florentino to look and learn?

And finally…

THINGS CAN ONLY GET BETTER: Pep can get the best out of Javi Martinez

#4. The situation for the Bayern squad, Javi Martinez and Spain

It’s simple to explain why Bayern is a natural fit for Guardiola. Ambitious, well-run, attentive to detail, a club with a Bavarian identity rather than German just as Barça feels itself firstly as a Catalan institution rather than a Spanish outfit. It’s also pretty clear what Guardiola brings to the party.

Basically this is all, ‘winning machine gets Formula One petrol in its engine — GO! GO! GO!’ as Murray Walker used to screech.

But there will be some stalled engines. Guardiola is maniacal about detail, quite right too. His demands are high and they are incessant. Without question he will encounter one or two at Bayern who either think, or worse still say: “Es tut mir leid, aber das ist nicht, wie wir die Dinge hier tun.”

Which, roughly, means: “That’s all very well pal but that’s not the way we do things around here you know.”

A deadline missed, a little bit of larking around during training, a stretching exercise only 95% completed, a late night ahead of a match… too many appearances in sponsors’ adverts.

If anyone at Bayern Munich’s Säbener Straße training centre doubts what kind of tightening of the leash is coming they need only phone Samuel Eto’o, Zlatan Ibrahimovic or Yaya Touré.

As for Javi Martínez, I suspect good times lie ahead. His €40m price tag has occasionally chafed this season. Hands up anyone who is totally shocked?

Okay, please leave the classroom.

But he now fulfills the right side of the two-man midfield, with Bastian Schweinsteiger, in retiring manager Jupp Heynckes’ regular 4-2-3-1 formation.

However, there could be no better ex-midfielder to become maestro to the talented, athletic Basque who can look closely at Xabi Alonso and Sergio Busquets now and believe: “I’m capable of making them fight much harder for their places in the world champions’ starting XI.”

I’m certain their shared language, ability, outlook and professionalism will unite Guardiola and Martínez, to the great benefit of the latter.

Then, dear reader, there is you and I…

RETURN OF THE KING: Whatever way you look at it, Pep Guardiola’s comeback is good for football

Neutral or partisan, German, Spanish, Catalan, Bavarian, Scottish, English, Irish or Welsh we should all be thrilled to the core that the beautiful game has one of his most attractive participants back again.

Viel Glück Herr Guardiola.

Graham Hunter on La Liga for the Paddy Power Blog
Betting: Bundesliga
Betting: La Liga

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Graham Hunter exclusive: Barca believe they can beat AC Milan

Posted on April 6, 2013 by SoccerCapper

Champions League: Barcelona v AC Milan

The cynics, perhaps let’s dub them the realists, will argue it’s all case of ‘too little too late’ for FC Barcelona with regard to putting AC Milan out of the Champions League.

For precisely the last two months there has been a drop in the intensity of Barça’s play, not just defensively with only a couple of clean sheets in that time, but the way in which they can put the pedal to the floor and tear even the best teams apart.

Last week, without a match, interim coach Jordi Roura mixed a little bit of time off with a double stint on Wednesday and pretty high-intensity work during the other training sessions.

This is the moment of the season when, since the beginning of the Guardiola era, the Blaugrana’s form begins to peak for the second time. There is a high priority put on having the turbo-chargers available in November and December, then again in March and April.

However this season the dip in late January, and particularly February, has seemed more pronounced and perhaps the surge will come too late for this tie – particularly taking into account the current scoreline.

Yet the players believe.

MBSBarcelonavMilan

Around the training ground over the last five or six days there has been no slumped shoulders, plenty of positive words and two meetings when the coach, but particularly the senior players, confronted problems, solutions, tactics and general ideas of how to eliminate Milan.

But can Barça really shift from a low gear to the type of Formula 1 performance which can make Milan “fearful” as their legendary coach Arrigo Sacchi says must be the case if the home side is to have any chance?

At this stage over the last four seasons Barça have beaten Bayer Leverkusen 7-1, Arsenal 3-1, Stuttgart 4-0 and Lyon 5-2. If that level of performance is about to arrive then, added to the fact that they have distinctly the better XI, then the Catalans will progress. Anything less and the weight of history, no side with a two-goal deficit and no away goal has gone through, will bear down on them too heavily.

If Andres Iniesta scores any time in this match, Paddy Power will refund all losing First Goalscorer, Last Goalscorer, Correct Score & Scorecast singles on the match.

Betting: Barcelona v AC Milan
Graham Hunter on the Paddy Power Blog

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