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Graham Hunter: What David Moyes has done at Real Sociedad this week and my 11/2 tip to shock the champions

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Atlético Madrid v Málaga, Saturday 3pm

This is the definition of an intriguing wee fixture carrying far more history, and ‘sizzle’ than is immediately apparent.

The reigning champions against a side which has been brutally asset-stripped since Manuel Pellegrini left.

No-brainer, right?

Hold your horses. Since Málaga drew at home to Barcelona in late September (preventing Messi and Co from getting a single effort on target and making it seem like Javi Gracia’s mob had about 15 players on the pitch) they’ve played six times and won five. Fifteen points via five back-to-back victories – one short of the club’s all-time record. Interestingly, too, the Malagueños have only won away to Atlético three times in history – but two of them have been in the last five visits (since Jan 2010).

  • In fact, in those last five matches at the Calderón, Málaga have two single-goal defeats (2-1 each time), two wins (0-2, 0-3) and last season’s 1-1 draw.

On which point, that draw should make this a grudge match for Diego Simeone’s lads. On the penultimate day of the season Málaga had nothing to play for, bar pride, but led 1-0 until relatively late and battled like it was for their lives. Barça drew at Elche that weekend so a win for Atlético would have meant the title and an ability to rest key players (particularly the injured Diego Costa) at the Camp Nou and get them fit and fresh for the Champions League final against Madrid which they failed to win by a handful of seconds before collapsing, exhausted, in extra time. NB the Spanish for revenge is ‘revancha’.

Nordin Amrabat, Málaga’s leading scorer (three) is out injured and although he’s not prolific I like Samuel Garcia as an anytime goalscorer at 11/2. Scored a brilliant goal at Atlético in that 1-1 draw last May, and two crackers in Málaga’s last four wins. P.S. Málaga’s last two away wins have cost the opposition coaches their jobs – Albert ‘Chapi’ Ferrer at Córdoba and Jagoba Arrasate at Real Sociedad. But if Paddy offers you odds on Diego Simeone to complete the hat-trick – politely refuse to invest your money, okay?

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Eibar v Real Madrid, Saturday 5pm

Spanish football does many things well but has made a real botch-up of the Copa Del Rey. Cup ties (coming to a Sky Sports 5 midweek soon) are now home and away, ensuring that giant-killing is now as rare as finding a genuine, full-blooded, club-wielding, 15ft giant with a long beard and a stroppy attitude. So treasure this game. It’s as close to the magic of the FA Cup 3rd round as the Spanish game has.

The world’s best-known club, against one from a Basque town of 27,000 inhabitants. Played in a stadium which houses fewer than 6000 spectators, with several hundred watching from the terraces of tower blocks which surround the partially-open Ipurúa ground. This is Eibar’s first time in the top league in 74 years but they’ve played Madrid at home once before, in the Cup 10 years ago. A bonkers night which finished 1-1 but during which Iker Casillas had to excel.

The even better story, beyond the kitsch, is that Gaizka Garitano has got his side playing confidently, with great order and a dash of daring. The fact that Luka Modric is absent injured and Madrid’s central midfield needs re-jigging, will probably be better tested on bigger pitches than this. But elite coaches hate, just hate, that post International break threat of players having ‘relaxed’ and not yet being back in their club mindsets.

VULNERABILITY is the word which makes them lose sleep and snap irritably at the missus. Is this the moment to recommend that you back the total underdogs? I’m not certain Madrid (read Ronaldo) won’t cope. However if you wanted to favour Eibar then when they’ve had two weeks of planning, concentrated tactics and training, when Modric is out, when the game’s at Ipurúa and the referee has a record of Madrid only winning 17 of 31 games when he’s been in charge …. then there won’t be a better moment I’d venture.

If the improbable is to happen Eibar would need their ‘pichichi’ Mikel Arruabarrena to score but not only should Madrid bring home the bacon, I’m sure they’ll score no matter how the game goes. Thus to win the Basques, who play in ‘Barça’ colours, would need a special ‘jack-in-the-box- goal’. Who better than Catalan, ex Barça B Abraham who scores once in a blue moon but hit an absolute pearler at Atlético this season?

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Barcelona v Sevilla, Saturday 7pm

I suggested a couple of weeks ago that Celta might win at the Camp Nou, and they did. When Barça failed to score that day it was the first time that had happened since Sevilla drew 0-0 there in October 2011.

That day the now pretty-much-forgotten Javi Varas seemed to have a personal grudge against Messi capped by saving his 90th min penalty.

Now it’s Unai Emery’s Sevilla who visit the Camp Nou and, like Celta, they have the pace, the technique, the attitude and the counter attack to win. Particularly following an international fortnight which can leave elite players sloppy and sluggish in its aftermath.

Perhaps the best reason to suggest that won’t happen this time is, again, the Messi/Sevilla goalkeeper situation. Emery (who’s never beaten Barça as a coach) suddenly has doubts about the hero of last season, Beto, and the keeper has looked gaffe-prone. Messi keeps missing chances which he’d normally bury but he’s still getting goals and assists thus when he re-calibrates by a few millimetres and overtakes the all-time La Liga scoring record (two goals to overtake Zarra) then you’d guess a splurge of hitting the net will follow such a pressure release. More, Luis Suárez utterly changed Barcelona two weeks ago when they played poorly at Almeria but won. You’d take both teams to score, perhaps an M’Bia header for Sevilla but both Messi and Suárez to save some Catalan blushes.

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Deportivo v Real Sociedad, Saturday 9pm

Hail to the Scotia Nostra in Spain. Jack Harper, a talented young striker at Real Madrid, Ian Cathro, assistant coach at Valencia and now David Moyes in charge of Royalty. La Real have shown this season that when they play with pace and confidence they’ll give anyone a game. Fortunate beyond belief to squeeze past Aberdeen the effort absolutely knackered them and they’ve only managed to beat the Russian Cup finalists, the Spanish Champions and the European champions since.

All week Moyes has worked hardest on two things – winning the ball back aggressively and quickly when it’s lost and the strategy of set plays.

  • La Real go to a ground where they’ve won just six times in 36 visits, just twice in the last 10.

Depo, in the hands of a talented coach in Victor Fernández (do the names Nayim, David Seaman, Paris and 1995 help remind you who he is) are short of goals, short of talent, really, but they whipped Valencia 3-0 when Los Ché turned up lacking in intensity and concentration.

Can a foreign coach who has had to work through an interpreter and has only really been in charge for eight or so sessions impose his wishes, conquer La Real’s notoriously fragile confidence away from home and squeeze goals out of the under-performing Carlos Vela, Imanol Agirretxe or Alfred Finnbogason? Yes, by jove, yes he can! No worse than a score draw, Vela and Agirretxe to help out there and possibly even a 1-2 away beginning. Go on, Moysie.

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Graham Hunter: Isco inferno can set Bale on fire with this 3/1 Friday night cracker

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Almería v Real Madrid, Friday 19.45

We’d all like to know the truth. What the hell is the magic elixir that allows a group of players poor enough to get the previous coach sacked to suddenly produce a power-play in the first game under new management and perform like world-beaters?

It has happened throughout the history of football but the most recent example was the Real Sociedad shirkers getting Jagoba Arrasate the heave-ho and then going out and beating the Spanish champions within a couple of days under the temporary control of Asier Santana.

So, Almería have eschewed the normal logic of letting Fran Rodríguez take a doing in this match against the European champions and THEN sacking him so that the new guy has a less fearsome start. Miguel Rivera is Johnny Two-Jobs this weekend, running the first team’s attempt to knock Madrid off their stride tonight and then back in the saddle with Almería B on Saturday afternoon against Granada B.

“It’s like winning the lottery,” reckons Rivera, whose cup minnows, Ecija, drew with Real Madrid 1-1 back in 2006.

In his favour should be the fact that this lot very nearly took three points off Barcelona a couple of weeks ago and that while Almería have won just once in 10 attempts [all time] against Madrid, since 2008 there have been two draws and a home win between the clubs at this stadium.

Which is not to ignore the fact that unless Madrid have their mind on the impending flight to Morocco for the World Club Championship then they’ll win. By hook or crook.

The quality of their football has dipped from boiling to simmering over the last couple of games but the flood of goals has, largely continued.

El Blackoutico! Money-Back if there's a goal inside 15 minutes of Real Madrid v Barcelona

Ronaldo was niggly in midweek against Ludogorets, partly at Gareth Bale’s occasional choice to favour attempting to score ahead of feeding the team leader.

  • On that subject, IF you want to ignore Ronaldo’s goal chances in this extraordinarily prolific season of his [over 30 goals in all competitions by early December] then Bale scored home and away against Almería last season, as did Isco who added a clutch of goal assists too.
  • Karim Benzema interests – eight in 12 in La Liga, five in five in the Champions League. It might just be that if Bale and Ronaldo aren’t feeding each other goals with the same vigor, perhaps the Frenchman will be the beneficiary of their assists.

Madrid by two, Isco and Benzema good candidates, but first goal important and for those in-play keep a close eye on whether players who have an impending date with a world title perhaps hold a little back. (Under Match Specials: Madrid to win by exactly two goals is 3/1)

Ref Álvarez Izquierdo: 11 matches with Madrid, eight wins, one draw two defeats – away to Celta and Sevilla.

  • Dip into the latest Real Madrid match odds here >

Last weekend, Graham predicted the following on the Paddy Power Blog: Atletico -1.0 to beat Elche (won), a three-goal win for Real Madrid against Celta (won), Sevilla to beat Rayo (won), and Barca by three against Espanyol… which won. Decent.

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Graham Hunter: This 34/1 La Liga treble should draw a crowd while Alfie can make Moyes merry at 6/1

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If the world were spinning correctly on its axis then there’d be more cheers and fierce booing before this match than anything during it – no matter how many goals Messi scores, or if Cordoba happen to produce the shock of all shocks in Saturday’s 3pm clash with Barcelona.

The reasons come in the shape of the Cordoba coach and their President.

WDW& BTTS All matches

Miroslav Dukić was a no-nonsense central defender for Deportivo La Coruña back in 1993/4 – a time when Super-Depor had led La Liga for 23 straight weeks, right up to the final weekend of football.

Depor were at home to Valencia, Barcelona, their pursuers, at home to Sevilla. So long as Depor matched Barça’s result they were guaranteed champions.

Johan Cruyff’s Dream Team thrashed Sevilla 5-2 and until the 89th minute in the Riazor Depor were tied 0-0 against Gaizka Mendieta’s Valencia. Then, penalty Depor. Bebeto ducked responsibility, Dukić stepped up … the Camp Nou froze while transistor radios were pressed to thousands of ears – and the penalty was saved.

A fourth straight Spanish title for Cruyff’s Dream Team. Surely Dukić is owed the [ironic] honour of being applauded out on to the Camp Nou?

Barcelona-800

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What of Cordoba President Carlos González?

Well in the Dream Team that day, at right back, was one Albert Ferrer – Olympic Gold medallist, European Cup winner at Wembley and, thanks to Dukić, newly champion of Spain again.

Last summer he took Cordoba up to Spain’s Primera Division for the first time in 42 years, he was given about eight games to prove himself and then González, the coward, wouldn’t even face him when he sacked him, sending ‘Chapi’ Ferrer a text saying how ashamed he was of his actions that he couldn’t bear to see him. If that doesn’t deserve a hostile reception at Chapi’s spiritual home, I don’t know what does.

Neymar is fit again, and should start, while Luis Enrique expects ‘more of the same’. ”

We’ve prepared for a typical game – a rival who shuts up shop at the back and tries to cause problems on the counter. If there’s anything we are accustomed to – it’s that.

Most of Barça’s stars have had a week off, they average four goals every home game and there’s nothing to suggest that this should be hugely different.

David Moyes

Levante v Real Sociedad, Saturday, 5pm

David Moyes is learning as he goes in his new country and while he learned something nice this week, that Alfie Finnbogason CAN actually still score goals, there was something altogether less pleasant for him to assimilate when it came to surveying the Levante game on Saturday at 5pm..

La Real’s away form has been horrible for many, many months. They seem to lack the physical stamina, the concentration and worst of all the belief to consistently pick up good results on the road.

But Levante is a case apart. Not only have the Basques NEVER beaten little Levante in Spain’s top division, in five of their last seven meetings La Real have taken the lead only to go on and either draw or lose. Savage stuff.

Moyes the Merrier

It looks likely that Carlos Vela won’t make it because of a muscle strain and there are seven more of Moyes’ squad who are fitness doubts.

Perhaps there’s a blessing in disguise. He’s filtered a variety of ‘kids’ into his last few matches and to absolutely no ill-effect.

Finnbogason’s two goals in the Cup victory over Oviedo means he’s a striker with some confidence again and worth following (6/1 for first goalscorer) in that he has at least got himself into something like six or seven scoring positions in the last two matches.

Chory Castro should make the game and is in form, Iñigo Martínez [despite missing a sitter v Athletic] threatens from set-pieces while for Levante their burly Brazilian striker, Rafa Martins, who’s taken a Finnbogason-length of time to score, is now looking fit, quick and dangerous whether as a starter or sub.

Hard to have faith in La Real on the road but if they go one up this time, have a punt on them not losing this time.

Nuno Espirito Santo 840

Eibar v Valencia, Saturday, 7pm

One way in which this new, voracious Valencia give you a bit of joy is that only once in their last seven away matches have they failed to score. They are ‘in’ almost every game, combative, buzzing with menace and self-belief despite being newly constructed and brimful of youth.

Maybe that’s part of the explanation for their record of four red cards already this season. For that reason André Gomes [potentially their most impressive addition this season] will be missing from midfield in the Basque country in this tiny [literally] stadium which is directly in proportion with the tiny [27,000 inhabitants] town, whose inhabitants have never enjoyed Primera football before.

Sent off last week against Rayo, the last time Gomes missed a game it was, just to round the argument off nicely, the only time in the last seven away matches when Valencia failed to score. In fact that week they went from having thrashed Atlético at home to losing, limply, at Deportivo la Coruña. Gomes is on five bookings so he’ll miss the next match too while both Gayá and Javi Fuego are one yellow off suspension. Does or doesn’t that influence how forcefully they play? I always wonder.

Their ref here is Carlos Velasco Carballo who HATES a red card. Ninety eight of them in 191 Liga matches says to me an average of a sending off just about every second game.

Just one in eight matches this season so the law of averages is screaming at him right now. ‘Off, OFF. OFF!’ What to make of Eibar. Not only do they sit ninth, better than any other promoted side across all of Europe’s major leagues, they hit five goals in their last home game and are off the back of a superb away draw to Sevilla.

They ain’t to be taken lightly. Although Mikel Arruabarrena is top scorer with just four, Gaizka Garitano’s side have shared their 19 goals across eleven different scorers including Saúl Berjón who’s an emerging gem of a forward.

Neither Feghouli (9/1) nor Piatti (13/2) are prolific for Valencia but they give the width the pace and both are nice side-bets for an unexpected goal if you fancy moving away from the market-leaders like the Rodrigos or Negredo.

simeone_840

Athletic Bilbao v Atletico Madrid, Sunday, 8pm

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Athletic have a reliance on Aritz Aduriz akin to dolphins and water, human beings and oxygen or Piers Morgan and cheap publicity. Complete. So to see the striker return from injury for the Basque derby last weekend but then be used [instead of rested] for the last 13 minutes of Athletic’s squeaky-bum Cup tie against third division Alcoyano on Thursday night tells you a) how worried coach Valverde was about going out and b) how little he trusts Los Leones’ other striking alternatives. What little Alcoyano knew was that meanwhile Athletic find it harder to score than North Korea does to keep its nose out of other people’s business they had a right chance. Valverde admitted:

We were sluggish up front. To get through we had to grit our teeth and hang on to the single goal lead.

Not a great advert.

Athletic, once fearsome at the new San Mames, have lost at home three times this season already and needlessly dropped other points to draws. They’ll be without Iturraspe in midfield and Laporte at centre back against Atlético, both suspended.

This fixture has a wonderful rhythm to it. Going back years and years if one team wins it’s home game the other will reverse that next time they meet. Better still, if, say, Atleti win in Bilbao, Athletic will win in Madrid next time they meet and vice versa. The original tit for tat. Everyone wants to be tat.

Diego Simeone has some choices to make. Losing at home to Villarreal last week [much against my expectation] his team looked massively tired, with Diego Godin wading through concrete when the scorer, Vietto, gamboled by him.

Then they lost two goals at home to Hospitalet in the Cup. Something’s not right.

On balance the fact that Atleti score and Athletic struggle to do so suggests there’s a risk of an away win here. That’s something they achieved last season [1-2] despite Athletic leading. San Jose is a goal threat for Athletic at set pieces, Borja Viguera is beginning to find his feet. Antoine Griezmann must get his chance to start and if he does he needs to impress his boss with a goal. Atletico need to figure that they can’t give Real Madrid another present while the league leaders [try to] become world champions in Morocco.

Expect the Basque pride to rouse Athletic and the Spanish champions will need one heck of a better pace and intensity than they’ve been capable of recently in order to better a score draw.

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Graham Hunter: How a Barca comeback could bag you a 19/1 winner in this week’s La Liga preview

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Valencia v Real Madrid – Sunday 4pm

Although you have to be a bit careful with your pronunciation, it’s an inescapable truth that football loves a bit of rancour.

Games with an ‘edge’, ‘bad blood’. Grudges.

Even though the last three Valencia Priméra División titles were won by coaches who were Real Madrid ‘purebloods’ (Alfredo di Stéfano in 1970/71 plus Rafa Benítez in 2001/2 and 2003/4) the animosity felt by Los Che towards Los Blancos has pushed this clash into the bronze medal position behind the Madrid derby and El Clásico. In terms of rancour.

Mestalla Stadium

Aside from two big clubs locking antlers every rutting season the special spice actually stems from the contentious move of Predrag Mijatovic from the Mestalla to Madrid as far back as 1996.

Valencia’s player of the season with 28 goals, and within a few months of becoming runner-up in the Ballon D’Or, he bought himself out of his [1,250 million peseta] contract and moved to the Bernabéu. Title first year, winning goal in the Champions League final the following. Cue increasing Valencian bitterness.

And football fans nurture grudges, keep them warm, hand them down to following generations.

Which is partly why there’s been a big internal debate at Los Che as to whether Madrid should or shouldn’t be given a guard of honour as they run out at the Mestalla on Sunday evening having made themselves World Club champions with their last game of 2014.

Valencia have a code – if their opponents have won the title, the Copa Del Rey or the Champions League they get applauded on to the pitch by Valencia’s players. The temptation, given that the World Club cup isn’t mentioned, was to set a hostile, ‘We’re Valencia, who the hell are you…?’ tone to the match.

Enzo Perez

The home side just spent their equal highest transfer fee to finally buy Enzo Pérez from Benfica [greeted by 8000 fans] and he’ll replace Javi Fuego in midfield.

Just to add to the match’s ‘bite’ it was Valencia’s 2-2 draw at Madrid last May which significantly helped cost Carlo Ancelotti’s mob the title.

For those who treasure numbers more than words six of the last seven of these Liga meetings at the Mestalla have resulted in five or more goals – 35 of them in total. Significantly, the only game in that run which did NOT yield five or more was the last time Valencia beat Madrid at home, 3-0 in 2009 thanks to the impact of Juan Mata, David Silva and David Villa.

Gareth Bale

Ronaldo, of course, and Benzema enjoy scoring against Valencia but if you want to look elsewhere Gareth Bale notched the goal of his career to win the Cup here last season, Isco was trained-up as a kid at the Mestalla but has never scored a Liga goal there while Álvaro Negredo was trained at Madrid and has three wins and four goals in 12 meetings with them since. At stake is Madrid’s run of 22 competitive matches unbeaten plus Liga leadership. Only four, not five, goals this time – and shared too!

Hunter’s Punt:

Gareth Bale to score anytime – evens

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Real Sociedad v Barcelona – Sunday 8pm

So, imagine the scenario. Barça goes out for a right good bevvy with the lads on Hogmanay to celebrate the end of a damn awful 2014.

It’s good but wild and on New Year’s day heads are heavy, coffee is needed and there is talk of ‘hair of the dog’. Then Mrs Barça shrieks down the stairs ‘don’t forget you’ve got a game on Sunday’.

‘Who the bloody hell against?’ roars the hungover Barça from the sofa, ‘Just tell me it’s NOT Real Sociedad away … is it? ‘Please don’t let it be them …’

Think of this: across the decades Barcelona have been one of the world’s great clubs, consistently powerful. Yet only twice since the mid 1950’s have they won consecutive matches in San Sebastian.

Anoeta Stadium

No matter the gulf between the sides Real Sociedad somehow consistently come up with wins and draws. The last fifty years have seen only 12 away wins in 52 visits compared to twenty defeats and twenty draws. Indeed they’ve lost three and drawn the other in their last four Anoeta nightmares.

For those who’d like to think of another of those it may interest that neither Neymar nor Messi returned to training until Friday [with Luis Enrique’s permission] which would often be not soon enough to start. Perhaps the Barça coach views that subject totally differently. Equally, while La Real look beatable if Barcelona are on form it’s a stark fact that the Txuri-Urdin have beaten both Real Madrid and Atlético with high-octane performances already this season. The post-break training sessions have seen both Mikel González and Imanol Agirretxe back at work with the group but most attention will centre on whether Carlos Vela is fit to start [80/20].

David Moyes

This has the air of a Jack Spratt and his wife type of match. One of them could eat no fat, the other no lean. Barcelona consistently spend 45-60 minutes looking dull and sluggish in matches then [often] roar away with them or get late winners. On the other hand La Real don’t seem to have massive stamina and regularly start more brightly and then see opponents finishing with a flourish. Tempting to think of the match going lose-win for Barcelona in terms of half-time/full-time.

Hunter’s Punt:

Half-time/Full-time:: Real Sociedad/Barcelona – 19/1

A vital, vital match for the Blaugrana. Should they continue their recent habit of losing here and Madrid win at Valencia then Barça would probably be, at best, one more defeat away from kissing goodbye to the title. In January. Tempting to perm between Luis Suárez, Pedro, Messi [only three of his fifteen league goals away from home and no away goals since week 7 at Rayo], Alfie Finnbogason, Vela and Zurutuza for the goals. Over to ‘Mister’ Moyes.

Real Sociedad 7/1, Barcelona 1/3, Draw 9/2 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

Atlético v Levante – Saturday 3pm

Start the year by backing the champions to settle an old score.

Last May Levante kick-started the ‘just as well we’re wearing brown shorts anyway’ sequence of the La Liga run-in for Diego Simeone’s champions-elect with a 2-0 win – a sequence which saw Atleti squeak home despite only winning two of the last nine points on offer.

simeone_840

That defeat was in Valencia but even the equivalent of this match last season was only a well-contested 3-2 win for Los Colchoneros, causing Simeone to say on Friday:

“Levante are a tough bunch who know exactly how they want to try and play. “It’s a hard test for us and I expect a full, noisy stadium to try and inspire us.”

Stadium-noise and raucous support are usually to be taken for granted at the Calderón – there was a genuine ’12th man’ effect during the title win. But since the hooligan violence before the Depor match and efforts to squeeze the ‘Frente Atlético’ Ultras out there has been a seeping away of atmosphere, almost a divisive feel to the general mood. Perhaps New Year-old sentiments is what the manager most wants.

That, alongside the form they showed last time out in the second half away to Athletic when they hammered the Basques thanks to a Griezmann hat-trick [he’s zero for nine in matches against Levante in his career]. Mario Mandzukic and Koke both return from suspension but Miranda’s not fit and Fernando Torres doesn’t make this squad [paperwork]. Atleti keep on scoring from dead-ball situations so perhaps picking one of them for a first-goal isn’t a bad thought. “Atleti are intimidating at set-plays” admitted Levante coach Lucas Alcaraz before the match.

Gabi

As to the chances of a Gabi goal let’s just tell this straight as a die. Both he and Arda are at risk of missing next week’s huge match at the Camp Nou – a booking and they are suspended. Gabi is also one of 41 charged with fixing a match against Levante back in 2011, a match which saved his team, Zaragoza, from relegation thanks to Gabi’s two goals in a 1-2 win. Streetwise to leave him out for this one against Levante then? Perhaps … but would that be typical of the chin-out, ‘no-one pushes me around’ Cholo Simeone?

Perhaps it’s worth nothing that Levante have never won at the Calderón on league duty and they are third lowest scorers in La Liga, boasting the fine record of having failed to score in eight of their matches. David Navarro is suspended so 38 year-old Juanfran, sent off in this fixture last season, returns. Atleti lost their last home game of 2014. Unthinkable that they don’t put on a show and win by two clear here.

Hunter’s Punt:

Atletico Madrid -1 goal – 4/7

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Sevilla v Celta – Saturday 5pm

If you are perverse, if you hate the ‘obvious’ then this profiles as a guaranteed away win. Sevilla are Spain’s only team to get this far in the season unbeaten at home. The reigning Europa League champions haven’t lost at the Sanchez Pizjuan for sixteen matches. Celta, on the other hand, haven’t scored in the league for 575 minutes, losing all but one of their matches since the first day of November. Adding nicely to that stat is the fact that Nolito and Larrivey, authors of 12 of Celta’s 17 Liga goals thus far, are both suspended for this match.

Estadio Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan

So, there you have it. How can Celta possibly lose?

In fact since the Galicians returned to the Primera they’ve three wins and just one defeat to their higher-profile, more successful rivals.

To judge Sevilla’s readiness you’ll have to decide whether you’re a cup half-full/cup half-empty type of punter. Do they have the greatest chance of cobwebs given that they last played on December 14 because their match against Madrid was postponed? Or are they likely to be sharper, rested and fine-tuned, having been back in training since Boxing Day?

A special match for two diehard Celta fans in the Sevilla ranks, Denis Suárez and Iago Aspas, so football history suggests you back one of them for an ‘any-time’ goal. Back from injury, Charles should start up front for the visitors, Fabián Orellana gets the odd goal but for the romantics Borja Iglesias, prodigious in the youth team, debuts in the first team squad and if there’s to be a surprise it’d be kinda cool if he produced it. Form says home win though, perhaps 3-1.

Hunter’s Punt:

Sevilla to win 3-1 – 12/1

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Graham Hunter: How a swashbuckling Real Madrid could bag you a 10/3 winner, plus an 18/1 draw double in this weekend’s La Liga preview

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Real Madrid v Espanyol – Saturday, 3pm

Madrid are a bit like those of us who say: ‘I’m not a morning person’. Bleary, sluggish – but capable of erupting into a blitzkrieg of action after a wee coffee. The Serena Williams of the football world. Yeah?

At the beginning of the season they were a bit Rip Van Winkle in defeats to Atlético and Real Sociedad, looking short on turbo-power. Lacking a cutting edge. Carlo Ancelotti warned then that these effects were temporary, that his fitness work would click and that the players would impose their class. So it proved. They won five straight in the league hitting 25 goals.

Right now they are suffering similar effects to the early season torpor. The physical and mental demands of setting a record of 22 straight wins, the post Christmas-break sluggishness – these factors affected the last two defeats, 2-1 to Valencia and 2-0 to Atlético in La Copa.

The question is: will that spark return this afternoon?

Carlo Ancelotti

Twice since 2008 Espanyol have popped up with a 2-2 draw at the Bernabéu but generally they are punchbags in this fixture.

Their coach, Sergio González, was co-author of one of the biggest shocks at this stadium, when Deportivo La Coruña won the Copa Del Rey at the Bernabéu beating Real Madrid on the day of their 100th birthday back in 2002. In fact he scored. A repeat would be epic – but also an epic shock.

Sergio García is, by a distance, Espanyol’s best player – European Championship winner with Spain in 2008. Barça-trained as a kid and Catalan to the core he’d presumably fancy augmenting his record of only having scored twice against Los Blancos and not having won once in 15 attempts. Sergio Ramos is rested, Rafa Varane, an out-of-reach Manchester United target, will partner Pepe in defence while Álvaro Arbeloa will keep his place at right back as Carvajal is suspended.

El Blackoutico! Money-Back if there's a goal inside 15 minutes of Real Madrid v Barcelona

Perhaps the most tempting factor is that Cristiano Ronaldo is going to collect another Ballon D’Or trophy on Monday night and, showman that he is, you’d expect him to take personal responsibility for a win with the flurry of goals his game has been lacking for the last month. Madrid to win by a two goal margin (at 10/3), Ronaldo (2/1 to score first) and Varane (15/2 anytime) on the scoresheet. 

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Malaga v Villarreal – Saturday, 5pm

Two happy stories bump heads. Málaga thought they had won the lottery but it all went a bit Viv Nicholson for them as the money which Al Thani promised started to run dry, salaries weren’t paid and a Uefa ban came thumping down on them. The crash and burn effect of such run-ins with sudden wealth can be horrific but, somehow, the seaside club has not only taken the body blow in its stride … Málaga are damn impressive.

Their youth academy has produced them a clutch of terrific young talents, players who not only wear the shirt with extra pride but who have clear, mercurial talent with which the local fans passionately identify – hence the terrific attendances at the Rosaleda. [La Rosaleda holds 30,000 and the average crowd this season is over 25,000]

Samuel García, Samu Castilejo, Juanpi, Portillo Juanmi and Sergi Darder are all 24 or under and have all spent healthy amounts of time in Málaga’s own youth system. Roque Santa Cruz has moved on so now there’s an emphasis on Nordin Amrabat turning his marauding form into goals … and avoiding injury a bit more.

Villarreal’s verve has been such a refreshing presence in La Liga that their bouncebackability after one season demoted was mega-welcome. Last year was consolidation, this season Marcelino has them playing terrifically attractive football where Denis Cheryshev, Bruno and Luciano Vietto stand out.

  • The Yellow Submarine have scored in every single one of the 19 games they’ve played since losing 0-2 to Madrid in late September. They have scored in all but one of their 14 away matches this season and Villarreal have fifteen different scorers in all competitions. Málaga have scored in each of their last 14 matches so you might like a ‘both teams to score’ flutter at 4/5

Villarreal’s cavalier attitude cost them a win at Elche last week when from 2-0 up they drew 2-2 so perhaps their heavy programme [eight Europa League matches plus league and cup] is taking a toll. But back them to do no worse than a point in a score draw at 10/3, possibly an away win at 6/4.

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Celta v Valencia – Saturday, 7pm

‘Celta plays good football even though it hasn’t been going well for them over recent matches. ‘They are dynamic, they keep the ball well, they make chances – current results don’t reflect Celta’s real personality’.

Never truer words from Valencia coach Nuno Espirito Santo.

Celta were good enough to beat Real Madrid at the dog-end of last season, draw at Atlético in September then record their first away win against Barcelona as ‘recently’ as November. After which, you’d guess, their coach Eduardo ‘Toto’ Berizzo must have dropped a consignment of mirrors.

Injuries, errors, bad luck and total confusion amongst his players about what those posts and nets are actually for – that’s been Celta since the win at the Camp Nou.

  • They are 665 minutes without a league goal. Sixty seconds more and there might be a numerical clue about what’s going on.

Just to torture Toto a bit more Celta remembered how to score in the Copa del Rey, seven in the last thee matches, but completely forgot how to defend in the midweek Cup tie against Athletic Bilbao which they lost 4-2 at home.

Joaquin Larrivey, leading scorer, is still banned as a result of mistaken identity [ref hears insult, ref waves red card, striker suspended for four games despite being innocent party] but at least Nolito is back in the squad after injury.

Two defenders, Cabral and Planas are absent so, as such, Valencia have a chance of maintaining their push for glory with an away win.

But their personality is as changeable as Scottish weather. They thumped champions Atlético in October, then went and waved the white flag at struggling Deportivo in the next game, losing 3-0. They gave Barcelona a chasing one week then barely scrambled a draw at Granada next time out. And Los Che dismantled Rayo in the league on December 13, 3-0, but three days later only drew 4-4 at home against the same side.

Valencia lost in Vigo last season, Charles scoring twice and he is worth a look again having hit the net against Athletic in midweek (15/8 anytime). Álvaro Negredo (23/10 anytime) doesn’t mind a goal against Celta, three in two, and his two goals in twelves matches since signing for Valencia don’t fully reflect his effort, chances or form . Score draw at 16/5 anyone?

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Barcelona v Atletico – Sunday, 8pm

The key is Messi. No change there I hear you say. Fine, but consider this.

  • Leo Messi’s goal record against Atlético is 17 in 20 matches – not too shabby.

Now factor in the extra data.

  • It’s seven games since Messi scored against Los Rojiblancos, across two long years.

Do the arithmetic. He treated Atleti like rag-dolls before – scoring 17 times in 13 matches. Since Diego Simeone really got hold of his squad there’s been a total Messi drought.

Correspondingly, Barcelona are now six games without a win against the current Spanish champions – one defeat and five draws. Atleti have got their number and that number is 10. The one on Messi’s back.

Lionel Messi training Argentina

Barcelona are still, theoretically, competitive in this league because of their home form. Away from home they have become limper than a wet dish-rag. In the league at the Camp Nou they are averaging nearly four goals per game but here’s the key – Messi has scored 13 of his 15 Liga goals at the Camp Nou. If Atleti manage to clamp him with their defensive congestion charge then they’ve a chance of a draw or better.

If Messi, as electric and ‘involved’ as at any time this season when orchestrating the 5-0 Copa win over Elche on Thursday, wriggles free then Barça should win and strike a huge blow against the tidal wave of ‘crisis’ headlines which have engulfed them.

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Little vignettes proliferate across this game. Luis Suárez against his international team-mate Diego Godín should be herculean. Mario Mandzukic’s last visit to the Camp Nou didn’t yield a goal but did give a 3-0 win for his Bayern side – the Croat versus Gerard Piqué will be worth admission money. Ivan Rakitic has three goals in ten matches against Atleti which doesn’t make him prolific but it’s as many as he’s scored against any opposition in his career and it was against Simeone’s team he incurred one of only two red cards in his career. Xavi’s absence may mean the Croat playmaker joins Busquets and Iniesta in the midfield three. Finally, Antoine Griezmann. Again. Opened his account against Levante last week, netting twice having never scored against them previously. He has two goals in his last two meetings with Barça but hasn’t ever scored at the Camp Nou. Take your pick. But the win/lose equation centres on Messi.

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What did we learn this weekend?

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This time of the year is always a good one for sports lovers with a wide variety of action to choose from. Along with all of the regular action we also have the luxury of the Paralympics to enjoy as well. We look at what the punters can take from Saturday and Sunday’s smorgasbord of sport.

1.Liverpool have big problems

If this wasn’t clear already then Sunday’s game with Arsenal certainly highlighted how much work Brendan Rodgers has to do before Liverpool can even think about challenging for the top four again. Up against one of their supposed rivals for Champions League qualification, the Reds looked toothless up front and open at the back as the Gunners controlled proceedings. Rodgers admitted afterwards that it was a mistake to let Andy Carroll leave but he will no doubt be feeling let down by the club’s failure to bring in a replacement.

At this point in time only a lunatic would back Liverpool to finish in the top four at 10/3 and, if they carry on as they are doing, then they won’t even make the top 10. On the other hand, Arsenal look a fairly sure bet to finish in the top four at 8/13 having finally ended their so-called crisis with victory at Anfield.

2.  Robson has a bright future

What a summer it has been for 18-year-old Laura Robson. The British star followed up her Olympic silver medal in the mixed doubles with a fantastic run at the US Open. Robson eliminated former Grand Slam champions Li Na and Kim Clijsters to reach the fourth round of the US Open. While the power of Sam Stosur proved too much in the end there are certainly a lot of positives for the former junior Wimbledon champion to take away with her.

Robson still has a lot to work on, in particular her serve, but it could be that Great Britain finally has a female who can compete at the Grand Slam events.

3.  Wigan are the comeback kings of Super League

If Manchester United fans were impressed with their comeback at Southampton on Sunday, then they should have been at Craven Park to witness a remarkable turnaround by the Wigan Warriors. Trailing 26-0 at one point, Shaun Wane’s men managed to record a 42-36 win, in the process securing top spot in Super League.

The Warriors are 6/5 to come through the play-offs and win the Grand Final this year, a task which looks easily achievable after Sunday’s turnaround. Warrington and Leeds, who are 5/4 and 10/1 respectively, might have something to say about that but, after this weekend, you can’t look past Wigan.

4. London Welsh set for struggle

The new boys in the Aviva Premiership often don’t survive their first year in the top flight of rugby union, just look at Leeds Carnegie and their regular yo-yoing between divisions. London Welsh were given a baptism of fire on their Premiership debut at the weekend after being paired with Leicester Tigers.

While the Exiles team was largely unknown, especially after Gavin Henson broke a cheekbone in a friendly, the Tigers team had plenty of internationals, with the likes of Manu Tuilagi, Toby Flood and Ben Youngs in their starting XV.

The 13-38 victory for Tigers probably tells you what you already knew in that Leicester could be worth backing to be regular season winners at 2/1, while the Welsh have their work cut out to avoid relegation.

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Can Ronaldo fire this summer?

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Portugal head into Euro 2012 still firmly in the shadow of Iberian neighbours Spain, though they boast within their ranks one of the world’s finest attacking players.

Whether or not Real Madrid star Cristiano Ronaldo can carry his domestic form into this month’s tournament will be crucial to the team’s chances of success

Ronaldo has emerged as a genuine contender to snatch Lionel Messi’s Ballon d’Or crown from his grasp, and the player has already stated publicly that he is desperate to perform in Ukraine and Poland this summer and boost his chances of scooping football’s most prestigious individual honour.

Ronaldo is 12/1 to finish as the tournament’s top scorer and an attractive 16/1 to be named the best player of Euro 2012.

But, much like Portugal’s chances of success depend largely on the form of the world-beating Madeira native, Ronaldo’s hopes of earning either accolade depend on his side’s fortunes at the tournament.

Portugal have been drawn in what has been christened by many observers as the ‘group of death’ and must finish ahead of two of three former European Championship winners to advance to the quarter-finals.

Holland, Germany and Denmark will undoubtedly provide tough opposition for Paulo Bento’s men, who are priced at 4/1 to win the group.

Awaiting the qualifiers from Group B at the quarter-final stage are Czech Republic, Greece, Poland or Russia, which suggests that qualification for the last four of the competition could be a much simpler proposition than securing a passage from the group stage.

Portugal are 11/4 to make the semi-finals and that price will narrow if they make it to the last eight, so those who fancy Os Navegadores to progress past the group stage would be well-advised not to sit on their hands and get in on the semi-final market at its present price.

In simple terms, if Portugal can get out of their group then they have a great chance of making the semis. But can they go even further?

Big guns Spain and Italy have been placed at the opposite side of the draw, which means Portugal could face another almighty hurdle on the path to a potential Euro 2012 Final appearance.

Bento’s men are 7/1 to make the final, which sounds rather generous, but the team will have to pull out all the stops to reach the tournament showpiece for the second time in eight years.

Portugual are priced at 20/1 to go one better than they did in 2004, when they were shocked by Greece in the final, and lift the trophy for the first time in the nation’s history, but a cursory glance at their potential path to glory suggests that 2012 may not be there year either.

But even if this may not be their tournament, there are several other attractive markets which factor in the performances of the Iberian underdogs.

Manchester United playmaker Nani is an incredible 40/1 to finish as the tournament’s top scorer, as is Besiktas marksman Hugo Almeida.

Many anticipate that all roads will lead to Ronaldo whenever Portugal take to the field, but both Nani and Almeida have proven prowess in front of goal, and a small amount wagered on both players in the tournament top scorer market has the potential to reap great rewards, particular if the team advances beyond the group stages.

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Things we learned this weekend

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There won’t be many more managers in the Premier League who will have endured a more difficult weekend than Arsenal (20/1 Champions League outright) boss Arsene Wenger.

The Gunners are yet to win a game in the top flight this season, or even score a goal, after a disappointing goalless draw against Newcastle United last weekend was followed up by a 2-0 defeat to Liverpool at the Emirates on Saturday.

When you are down on your luck it looks like things are going against you and Liverpool’s opener had nothing to do with the Reds as Arsenal defender Ignasi Miquel slammed the ball at team-mate Aaron Ramsey to then see it find its way in the goal.

That followed the sending off of Emmanuel Frimpong, who showed his inexperience at this level and exposed the lack of strength in depth in the Gunners squad. Now the pressure is building on Wenger, who has also had to deal with the loss of his skipper Cesc Fabregas, who completed his protracted move to Barcelona earlier in the week.

With Samir Nasri set to leave the Emirates before the end of the month, the Gunners boss will have to splash the cash to appease the club’s fans if he still wants to be in charge at the Emirates next season.

Another man who finds himself under pressure is Ireland rugby coach Declan Kidney, who saw his side suffer their third straight defeat ahead of the World Cup next month.

The Irish went down 22-26 to the French on Saturday to leave Kidney’s side with their confidence  on the floor ahead of the major tournament, following another defeat to Les Bleus last weekend and a loss to Scotland in Edinburgh.

Things won’t get much easier for Kidney, as his side get set to host Six Nations champions England next weekend and questions have now been raised over Ireland’s preparations ahead of the World Cup.

Only a win will do against the English after this weekend’s latest defeat has placed unwanted pressure on Kidney and the Ireland (20/1 World Cup outright) squad.

In the 13-man form of the game, Wigan Warriors once again showed they are the side to beat in the Super League this season as they hope to defend their title. The Lancashire outfit thrashed the Bradford Bulls on Friday night with a superb second-half performance at the DW Stadium.

Sam Tomkins bagged himself another brace as the Warriors ran in 12 tries to put themselves in a strong position at the top of the table.

Wigan (1/4 Challenge Cup outright) are perfectly placed to do the double this season, as they continue to look strong in the Super League and have booked their place in the final of the Challenge Cup, where they will face Leeds Rhinos at Wembley.

Looking at the way they took apart the Bulls, it’s hard to see any side stopping the Warriors securing a famous double this term.

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What we learnt this weekend

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Another weekend of top-class sport has come and gone and it is time to take stock and reflect on what we have learnt from the various contests that have taken place.

1. Roy Hodgson is still a decent manager

The 63-year-old has managed all over the world including spells at Inter Milan, FC Copenhagen and with the Switzerland national side (West Brom 5/2 to be relegated).

But, after taking Fulham to the final of the Europa League last season, he opted to make an ill-fated move to Liverpool following Rafael Benitez’s departure.

Despite having an excellent CV and plenty of experience, his time at Anfield seemed doomed from the start with the fans never really warming to him and with the legendary Kenny Dalglish seemingly waiting in the wings.

After his departure from Liverpool, West Brom wasted little time in bringing him in to replace Roberto Di Matteo and he has already tightened up the side, who are now unbeaten in six Premier League games.

The stage was set with the visit of Liverpool to the Hawthorns on Saturday and the Baggies’ 2-1 victory will have given Hodgson plenty to smile about on Saturday evening.

2. Manchester United will win the title

United’s season was encapsulated in the second 45 minutes of the match against West Ham United on Saturday.

Down 2-0 at half time and seemingly out of sorts, they roared back to win 4-2, with Wayne Rooney scoring a hat-trick to ensure that they are in pole position to claim the title this term (United 1/5 to win Premier League).

The Red Devils have never really been at their best this season but have found ways to win and remained unbeaten in the top-flight until losing 2-1 to Wolves back in early February.

It seemed incredible that it had taken so long for them to lose in the Premier League, as they were outplayed on several occasions only to secure a winner or equaliser at the death to maintain their title challenge.

They have now lost three times this season but, with teams below then faltering, another second-half comeback has given them breathing space from which they will surely go on to win the title.

3. Spurs are struggling without Gareth Bale

Bale has rightly been lauded for his exploits this season and his two performances against Inter Milan in the group stage of the Champions League will live long in the memory.

But injury has robbed Harry Redknapp of his star winger for the past few games and the north Londoners look a shadow of the side who seemed on course for another tilt at the Champions League next term.

Since beating Sunderland on February 12 they have taken just three points from four top-flight games and have scored only four goals, drawing a black in their last two Premier League outings.

Bale’s return to fitness cannot come soon enough and he may get a run-out against Real Madrid in the Champions League on Tuesday, but the Wales international star is needed in the Premier League too to ensure that Spurs will be playing at least Europa League football next season.

4. Phil Mickelson is far from a spent force

The Californian won the Masters last year and looked set to challenge Tiger Woods for the coveted number one world ranking but, despite Woods’ on and off-course woes, he could not shift him from the top spot and failed to win another tournament all year.

The left-hander was diagnosed with an arthritic condition mid-way through the year and confessed that he had been playing through pain at certain tournaments.

But he looked right back to his best with victory in the Houston Open on Sunday with a final-round 65 giving him a three-shot victory in Texas.

The 40-year-old has won three Green Jackets to date but a dip in form and the fact that he is not getting any younger made many question whether or not he would ever win another major.

Sunday’s result proves that he is still more than capable and made the rest of the golf world take note with the Masters set to begin on Thursday (Mickelson 13/2 to win Masters).

5. One-day cricket is alive and kicking

India’s superb victory over Sri Lanka  in the World Cup final ended a tournament that has provided thrills and spills and reinvigorated the 50-over game.

The emergence of Twenty20 cricket threatened to kill off the one-day game and it is true that the middle overs of an ODI can be a bit predictable, with batsmen prepared to knock the ball around and wait for the final few overs to attack.

But both India and Sri Lanka proved that it can be an exciting format of the game, with the outcome of the match in doubt until the last few overs.

The 2007 World Cup was a bit of a damp squib and did little to enhance the 50-over game’s reputation with empty stands commonplace, but the Asian crowds got behind the 2011 tournament and it was a real festival of cricket, with the best two teams contesting the final.

T20 cricket may be exciting but just ask the billion or so Indian fans whether there is still a place for 50-over cricket.

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5 things learnt this weekend

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It was an action-packed weekend of football, Six Nations rugby, one-day cricket and golf, with quite a few surprises along the way. Betting punters were given some big clues as to potential future bets and here’s what we found out over the last 72 hours…

1 – City can still win the Premier League title

Manchester City were the only team in the top four to gain a victory this weekend and Roberto Mancini’s side have renewed title hope…mainly due to their rivals form. United were beaten at Wolves and their away form will still be a big concern to Sir Alex Ferguson, while Arsenal and Chelsea look all over the place at the back.

Hat-trick hero Carlos Tevez is currently the best striker in the league and can lead City (12/1 Premier League Outright) to top spot, but he has prove his worth in next weekend’s Manchester derby.

2 – The letter ‘W’ is cursed!

All of the bottom four teams in the Premier League begin with the letter ‘W’ and three of West Ham (8/13 to be relegated), Wigan (4/7), Wolves (8/11) and West Brom (6/4) look set to go down. Wigan and Wolves gave themselves hope with massive home wins, but the inconsistent Hammers lost again at home and the managerless Baggies need some inspiration from somewhere after 13 defeats in 18 games.

If you are not convinced about this season’s curse check out the League One table, where Walsall also sit in the drop zone! Wycombe fans may disagree, as they are currently second in League Two.

3 – Six Nations is a two-horse race

England (11/10 Outright Winners) and France (13/8) showed they are the two teams to beat in the Six Nations this year, while Italy may not be propping up the rest come mid-March. Martin Johnson’s men should have beaten a confidence-shot Wales by more, while France didn’t need to be at their best to rack up four tries against Scotland.

Ireland’s last-gasp win in Rome highlighted how Declan Kidney’s side have gone backwards, with their title hopes looking slim despite a first-game victory. A much improved Scotland could have a say on where the title goes, which must be either Twickenham or the Stade de France.

4 – England can’t win the World Cup

After a brilliant Ashes success Down Under, confidence in England’s one-day squad looks shot after a 6-1 series defeat to Australia. Injuries have also plagued Andrew Strauss’ squad and with two weeks until the tournament starts, the selectors have no idea who will be in the squad as they await medical reports.

Arguably their two most important 50-over stars, Graeme Swann and Eoin Morgan, are among those rated doubtful and without them, the best England (6/1 Outright Winner) can hope for is qualification from Group B.

5 – Veteran star can win the Masters

This weekend’s golf has shown that the veterans can still pose a threat in the Majors, after a timely return to form for two stars. Thomas Bjorn was in inspired form to take the Qatar Masters title by four shots, with the Dane proving the doubters, who thought his Tour career was finished at 39 years of age, wrong.

Meanwhile, Vijay Singh (80/1 to win 2011 Masters) has enjoyed a renaissance on the US Tour with the 47-year-old carding four sub-70 rounds at the Phoenix Open. The Fijian is a former winner at Augusta and a three-time Major Champion.

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