Monthly Archives: July 2011

Uruguay to edge unlikely Copa final

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Uruguay and Paraguay go head-to-head in an unlikely Copa America final in Buenos Aires on Sunday in what looks like being a bridge too far for underdogs Paraguay (Uruguay 4/11, Paraguay 2/1 – Outright winner).

Gerardo Martino’s side have actually yet to win a game in the whole tournament – having advanced through their group by drawing all three games before winning on penalties in both the quarter and semi-finals following goalless draws.

So, with that stat in mind, it is no surprise Uruguay, who have been the stand-out team in Argentina, are the hot favourites to lift the 42nd Copa America.

This has been an unpredictable competition though and Oscar Tabarez’s men will do well not to underestimate their opponents, who have built on last summer’s impressive showing at the World Cup and caught plenty of countries by surprise.

Built on a solid defence, which helped them past both Brazil and Venezuela in the knock-out stage, they know how to stifle more talented opposition.

The critics would say Paraguay also know how to stifle the game in general after successive 0-0 draws, but playing for penalties against a formidable Uruguay outfit could cost them dearly on Sunday.

They will certainly be hard to break down and Martino, who is forced to watch the game from the stands after being suspended following an on-field fracas in the aftermath of the semi-final win, will set them up with the emphasis firmly being on defence.

However, in Luis Suarez, Uruguay have a player who, on his day, can be unplayable and the Liverpool striker will be desperate for a goal to pick up the golden boot award as he sits tied with Sergio Aguero on three goals going into the final.

His strike-partner Diego Forlan has failed to hit the heights in Argentina so far, but he remains a top-quality striker and will be eager to show his true form in one of the biggest games in world football. Therefore, a punt on the Atletico Madrid man to score anytime at 11/8 is well worth a bet.

Paraguay may fancy their chances of keeping Uruguay at bay and taking the game to extra time when anything can happen but a narrow 1-0 win for Uruguay at 18/5 looks like a wise wager.

As has been the case with much of the tournament, don’t expect a cracker although, considering what’s at stake, neither of these two will be too concerned about that.

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Hearts to be broken in SPL opener

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While most of us haven’t even been on our summer holidays yet the Scottish Premier League returns this weekend, just over two months after the last campaign reached its conclusion.

For the football fanatics it will be a welcome relief from the tedium of pre-season friendly matches, although the players might not agree with any excitement over an early start.

Saturday’s curtain raiser should be a belter between defending champions Rangers and Hearts. Can the Gers pick up from where they left off or can the Jambos make a statement of intent at Ibrox?

Rangers v Hearts (12:30pm)

Saturday represents the beginning of a new era in the blue half of Glasgow as Ally McCoist takes charge of his first competitive game since becoming Rangers boss. The former Scotland and Gers striker has some big shoes to fill after watching Walter Smith guide the Light Blues to three consecutive SPL titles.

McCoist’s first game in charge is likely to be a decent test as they take on a Hearts side, who finished third last season and have added some decent players to their ranks. Danny Grainger, Jamie Hamill, Mehdi Taouil and John Sutton have all made the switch from their respective clubs to Tynecastle and should provide manager Jim Jefferies with some good options.

While matters off the field have dominated their build-up to the season Hearts shouldn’t be overlooked by Rangers.

Having said that they do have a terrible record at Ibrox in recent years, losing 13 of their last 16 visits to Glasgow. Recent matches have been low scoring affairs so the bet to look out for is under 2.5 goals at 6/5.

With an earlier start time than usual both teams should be a little rusty but Rangers’ quality should shine through. Rangers are 4/11 to win, while Hearts are 17/2 and the draw is 7/2 in the match betting.

Aberdeen v St Johnstone (3pm)

Two teams who struggled last season clash at Pittodrie in the first of two 3pm kick-offs, with Craig Brown looking to carry on the good work he has been doing with the Dons.

Aberdeen have had another tough summer, losing a number of key players including Chris Maguire, Derek Young and Zander Diamond.

Brown did some great work to make sure the Dons weren’t in a relegation battle last season but another bottom half finish looks as though it is calling to the men from the Granite City.

As for St Johnstone they are 9/2 to finish bottom this season and they could find themselves slipping that way if they don’t find a consistent source of goals after managing just 23 in 38 games last season.

The Dons will need to be strong at home and are 21/20 to get the campaign off with a victory in the match betting, the Saints 11/4 and the draw 23/10.

Motherwell v Inverness

Not much separated these two teams at the end of last season, with Inverness ending up with more points than the Steelmen but finishing below them due to being stuck in the bottom half of the table when the league was divided.

Caley will be looking to make sure they finish in the top six this season, despite the loss of Adam Rooney. The promising young striker has gone to Birmingham City and means, like Motherwell, Inverness are without their main source of goals from last season.

The Steelmen lost John Sutton during the summer and will do well to replace their main threat for the upcoming campaign. Last season Inverness took seven points off Motherwell and we fancy them to do the same again to kick start the campaign. The Highlanders are 5/2 for the away win, while Motherwell 11/10 and the draw is 23/10.

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Premier League value bets

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With pre-season well underway and the transfer market continuing to build towards an exciting crescendo it’s time to begin looking at the best bets for the Premier League season.

For all those putting their mortgage on Manchester United to win the title again, or Swansea to be relegated, it might be time to think outside the box for those bets  which offer better value for money.

Manchester City to be crowned champions

Three years ago, when it looked like City might go belly up after being left high and dry by Thaksin Shinawatra, it was impossible to imagine they might one day challenge for the Premier League title.

However, nearly a billion pounds later and City are in the Champions League and have ended their long wait for silverware by winning the FA Cup.

Sheikh Mansour’s vision for the blue half of Manchester is starting to materialise and in Roberto Mancini the club have a manager who might divide opinion but will normally get the job done.

In 2005 we watched the money Roman Abramovich had poured into Chelsea come good as they lifted the first of three Premier League crowns.

It stands to reason then that before too long the club with the most money will eventually buy the title.

City are 4/1 to do just that next season, a decent price for a team which continues to improve year-on-year.

Of course, local rivals United (7/4) will have a big say in the destination of the title but having brought in youth this summer it might be a season of transition for Sir Alex Ferguson’s men.

Could the blue moon finally rise for Mancini & co?

Javier Hernandez to secure the golden boot

This Mexican speedster caught us all by surprise last season when he burst on to the scene at Old Trafford, scoring 20 goals in 45 appearances for the Red Devils.

His ability to score when United needed it most earned him comparisons with Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, a man who knew a thing or two about goalscoring.

Hernandez’s performances look as though they have cemented him a place in the United team, alongside Wayne Rooney, and you’d expect him to be one of the first names on Sir Alex Ferguson’s team sheet next season.

Hernandez is 17/2 to be the top goalscorer in the Premier League next season, a very appealing price when you consider the amount of ammunition he is going to receive from the likes Ashley Young, Nani and Antonio Valencia.

Rooney and wantaway Carlos Tevez are the 8/1 favourites.

Sunderland to the league’s next best

A look at totesport’s Premier League market without the top six makes for some interesting reading for value hunters.

As most people will predict Manchester United, Manchester City, Arsenal, Chelsea, Tottenham and Liverpool will probably make up the top six we are looking for the next best team.

Sunderland are 6/1 to finish seventh effectively, a great price when you think Steve Bruce has kept the majority of his squad together from last season, while adding some quality in David Vaughan, Craig Gardner and Connor Wickham.

The Black Cats threatened to finish in a European spot last season before tailing off due to a crippling injury crisis. Having added some strength in depth Sunderland could get the better of the likes of Everton (13/8) and Aston Villa (7/2).

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Foxes face promotion pressure

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Eriksson McDermott

With just over two weeks to go until the start of the Championship season, punters will be eyeing a potential ‘good value bet‘ in a wide-open division. The likes of Swansea, Blackpool and Burnley have surprised many by gaining promotion to the top flight in recent years, could there be another surprise package this season?

Leicester (9/2jf Championship Outright) look like the team to beat this term after spending big during the summer transfer window.

Sven Goran Eriksson turned the Foxes from relegation candidates to play-off contenders last season and has spent money on strengthening his squad.

David Nugent, Matt Mills, Neil Danns, Sean St Ledger and Kasper Schmeichel are among the names arriving at Leicester and although they look like quality additions, the pressure will be on for Eriksson’s men to deliver the goods.

West Ham (6/4 to win promotion) are another team expected to go close this season, despite losing a number of first-team players since their relegation from the top flight.

Sam Allardyce has pulled off a real coup with the capture of Kevin Nolan, but a couple of other new faces will be needed if they are to stake a claim for an imminent return.

Birmingham and Blackpool are the other two clubs looking to go back up at the first time of asking, with the Tangerines looking a better bet at this stage.

Ian Holloway may have lost Charlie Adam and David Vaughan but in Kevin Phillips (33/1 Championship Leading Scorer) they have someone who can grab 20-plus goals this term.

Blues have lost four first-team regulars and Chris Hughton has some rebuilding to do to make them a force, although he knows how to win promotion having won the title with Newcastle.

After the appointment of Steve McClaren, much of the press will be keeping a close eye on Nottingham Forest (3/1 to win promotion) this season.

The ex-England boss has brought back Andy Reid to the City Ground and the capture of Jonathan Greening from Fulham looks like a useful addition. The play-offs will be the minimum target for McClaren.

Burnley finished last season strongly under Eddie Howe and have a lot of quality in their squad, but they will need a goalscoring replacement for Chris Iwelumo. The Clarets’ home form is likely to keep them in touch with the chasing pack, but they will need to improve on the road.

Reading (12/1 Championship Outright) will still be haunted by their play-off final defeat to Swansea and the loss of Mills will have a big impact on their hopes. Brian McDermott must keep Shane Long if the Royals are to challenge for promotion.

The Yorkshire challenge will come from Leeds and Hull, with the Tigers looking a more likely threat.

Nigel Pearson has made some shrewd additions, in particular Paul McKenna, and in Matt Fryatt (20/1 Top Goalscorer) has one of the best strikers in the division.

Leeds have struggled to make an impact in the transfer market and will be relying heavily on the intimidation factor of Elland Road.

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Old Firm primed for title fight

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The new Scottish Premier League campaign is only days away and, as always, the main question surrounds which Old Firm side will reign supreme in 2011-12?

Rangers defied the odds last season when they took advantage of a late slip from Neil Lennon’s Celtic at Inverness to keep their cool and add the SPL crown to their Co-op Insurance Cup success.

The Hoops, who had to settle for the Scottish Cup, are again title favourites with Totesport (4/5 Outright) and are in determined mood going into this new season as they have also bolstered their ranks with the arrivals of Kelvin Wilson, Adam Matthews and Victor Wanyama.

Lennon, who boosted the club by agreeing to stay on as manager despite several threats against his security throughout the course of last season, is also attempting to bring in a new goalkeeper to replace Fraser Forster, with Croatia internationalist Stipe Pletikosa aiming to win a contract.

South Africa striker Katlego Mphela is also expected for a trial next week which has left Kris Commons in a confident mood as they bid to take the league title to the green and white side of Glasgow.

Commons, who impressed greatly after joining the Hoops from Derby in January, said: “Competition for places has never been so strong, especially across then midfield and back four.

“It keeps us as hungry as possible and hopefully good things will happen this year.”

Lennon has stressed the importance of Celtic doing well in Europe this time around as he feels it is “important for my development as a coach and the players’ development”.

But he is making no secret of the fact that it is his ultimate goal to prevent rival Ally McCoist getting his hands on the SPL trophy in his first season as manager after taking over from Walter Smith at Ibrox.

“I really need to win the title this year – that’s the priority,” Lennon admitted ahead of Sunday’s opener at Hibernian (Hibs 13/2, Celtic 2/5, Draw 11/4 90 Minutes).

“We came very close last season but we have only ourselves to blame for not doing it. I’m hoping we can go one better this season.”

Ironically, there is slightly more pressure on McCoist to retain the SPL title for the Gers (Evens Outright) than there was on his predecessor Walter Smith as businessman Craig Whyte arrived late last season and is willing to plough some much-needed funds into the club for new faces.

But McCoist has found his team strengthening mission harder to push through than Lennon with Spaniard Juan Manuel Ortiz the only addition to the Ibrox squad so far.

The former Rangers forward is battling to bring striker Kenny Miller back to the club from Turkish side Bursaspor, while a deal which would see defender Carlos Cuellar return after a three-year spell away at Aston Villa has also not yet materialised.

Should those deals go-ahead before the SPL curtain-raiser against Hearts (Rangers 3/10, Hearts 7/1, Draw 7/2 90 Minutes) at Ibrox this weekend, then you would have to fancy the Gers to be a good shout for more SPL success.

But, as it stands, midfielder Steven Davis, who has just signed a new five-year deal at the club to follow team-mates Allan McGregor and Steven Whittaker in penning new contracts, feels they are still short of numbers.

He admitted: “We’ve got quite a settled team from last season and a lot of us are on long-term deals now which is important.

“It’s just a case of adding to our group now as it’s a wee bit thin at the moment and it will be nice to get some fresh faces on board.”

So, at the moment it looks like Celtic marginally have the upper hand going into the season, but a lot depends on Rangers’ transfer activity before the end-of-August deadline before a clearer picture will emerge in another intriguing Old Firm title scrap.

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Paraguay to end Venezuela dream

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The second Copa America semi-final in Mendoza on Wednesday evening sees the unlikely pairing of Paraguay and Venezuela going head-to-head for a place in the final on Sunday.

Pre-tournament predictions would have expected hosts Argentina and the mighty Brazil to be amongst the last-four countries looking to be crowned kings of South America.

But with new favourites Uruguay (4/5 Outright Winner) set to face Peru in Tuesday’s first semi-final, all eyes will then be on which of these unfancied teams will be on their way to Buenos Aires this weekend.

Venezuela (13/2 Outright Winner) have already made history by reaching the last-four stages for the first time in their history, while Paraguay (9/4) are in the strange position of making it this far without actually winning a game, having drawn all three group matches, before defeating Brazil on penalties at the weekend.

Therefore we are in for an intriguing encounter between two sides which went into the tournament expected to just make up the numbers in the presence of their more illustrious CONMEBOL members.

We only need to look back to last week for the two sides’ last head-to-head when they played out a thrilling 3-3 draw in the final Group B clash which ensured Venezuela qualified behind group winners Brazil, while Paraguay progressed as one of the best third-placed teams.

A repeat of that scoreline (50/1 Correct Score) would be a great advertisement for the Copa America, but it’s unlikely the game will be as open given that there is a lot more at stake on this occasion.

Venezuela were the only team to win in 90 minutes when they stunned Chile in the quarter-finals with Malaga striker Jose Salomon Rondon (5/2 Anytime Goalscorer) showing some good form and possibly the man coach Cesar Farias will look towards to fire La Vinotinto into the final.

Rondon scored his only goal of the tournament against Paraguay in the group game, while the side have shared the load around as Gabriel Cichero, Nicolas Fedor, Cesar Gonzalez, Grenddy Perozo and Oswaldo Vizcarrondo have also been on target.

Paraguay will be aiming to secure a first win of the Copa America in the match (20/21 To Win 90 Minutes), although their coach Gerado Martino will not mind if they reach the final on the back of another penalty shoot-out win.

The 1979 winners have not been this far since 1983 so a place in the final will mean just as much to La Albirroja as it will for Venezuela so they will be geared up for a huge match for their nation.

The likes of Manchester City hitman Roque Santa Cruz (6/1 First Goalscorer), Wigan defender Antolin Alcaraz, and Sunderland’s Christian Riveros are all known to Premier League fans and have all found the net for Paraguay in the tournament.

Nelson Valdes and Lucas Barrios have also been on target in the tournament as, like Venezuela, Paraguay have also got goals right through their team.

Paraguay also have veteran goalkeeper Justo Villar between the sticks still brimming with confidence following his man-of-the-match performance in ensuring a dominant Brazil could not find a way past him for the entire 120 minutes of their quarter-final clash and then even failed to convert a single penalty in the shoot-out.

If Villar is just as commanding against Venezuela then that will give the rest of his team a lift in their attempt to break down the opposition and I fancy Paraguay to just have the edge, but they might have to take the long route through once again.

Prediction: Draw 90 minutes @ 21/10
Value Bet: Rondon 1st Goal 1-1 Draw Scorecast @ 33/1.

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Tabarez to end Markarian’s dream

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The semi-final stages of an unpredictable Copa America will get underway on Tuesday evening when Argentina’s conquerors Uruguay will face a Peru side which defied the odds to see off Colombia in their last-eight showdown on Saturday night.

It all points towards a routine success for the Uruguayans (7/10 To Win 90 Minutes) as they go in search of a 15th Copa America title success, but in a tournament which has been littered with shocks as Brazil, Chile and the hosts Argentina have all been dismissed, it is becoming increasingly difficult to know exactly what will happen.

Add to the fact that these two sides met in the opening game of Group C and played out a 1-1 draw (5/1 1-1 Correct Score) and it highlights the possibility of a difficult evening ahead for Uruguay.

It is also a pupil-versus-master scenario in La Plata as Uruguay coach Oscar Tabarez will be up against his former Bella Vista coach Sergio Markarian, who has worked wonders with a Peru side which finished bottom of the Conmebol World Cup qualifying.

Key forwards Jefferson Farfan and Claudio Pizarro were ruled out of this tournament before a ball was even kicked, while Juan Vargas has needed to be wrapped in cotton wool between games due to a leg muscle problem which has blighted him throughout.

But it is the midfield form of Vargas and William Chiroque, who have supported lone forward Paolo Guerrero, and a solid defensive organisation which has been effective in helping the Peruvians reach the last-four.

Therefore it will be a blow for Markarian if Chiroque cannot shake off the hamstring injury which he picked up during the 2-0 win against Colombia (16/1 Peru To Win 2-0 Correct Score) at the weekend as he will want all hands on deck for another testing encounter.

Uruguay, who are looking for their first Copa America win since 1995, will recall their success on Argentinian soil back in 1987 – when they also defeated the hosts and then world champions along the way – as a possible lucky omen going into the Peru clash.

Tabarez set his stall out to try and nullify the impressive Argentinian attacking options, led by Lionel Messi in their penalty shoot-out win, and then went for goals on the break with Diego Forlan, Luis Suarez and Alvaro Pereira all capable of finding the net.

But with his side favourites he will have to be careful not fall victim to his own tactics which will no doubt be employed by Markarian as he will look for his Peruvian players to soak up what the Uruguayans can throw at them and try and pick up what they can at the other end of the field.

I am not expecting a goal-fest in this game as the previous meeting on July 4 was a draw, while both Uruguay and Peru have only scored four goals respectively in as many games so far.

However, basing my prediction on the superior attacking power of Uruguay and the possible loss of Chiroque from the Peruvian ranks, Tabarez will probably have just the edge over Markarian, but it could be another long night.

Prediction: Draw 90 Minutes @ 23/10
Value Bet: Peru/Draw HT/FT @ 14/1

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Who faces the basement battle?

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The fight to stay in the Premier League is often more nail-biting than the battle for the title and this season looks likely to be another tight tussle for survival. We take a look at the main contenders looking to avoid the dreaded drop from the top flight……..

The three promoted teams will always be mentioned among the favourites from relegation and the 2011-12 Premier League campaign will be no different, with QPR, Norwich and Swansea expected to struggle.

Swansea (8/15 to be relegated) are the team most people would expect to face an instant return to the Championship, following their play-off success. It will undoubtedly be tough for the Swans and, despite the capture of Danny Graham and their successful attempts to keep Neil Taylor, they look short of goals and too weak at the back to have an impact.

Norwich (11/4 to finish bottom) have at least been active in the transfer market, with the decent captures of James Vaughan, Steve Morison and Bradley Johnson. But Paul Lambert is relying on a lot of untried players at the top level and that is a big gamble which is unlikely to pay off.

QPR have been quiet in the transfer market to date, with just the two confirmed captures. If the R’s (4/9 to stay up) can keep Jay Bothroyd and Kieran Dyer fit then they can give themselves a chance, but defensive reinforcements will also be needed before the end of August.

Of the current crop of established teams, Blackburn (7/2 to be relegated) look to be in the most danger with a lack of transfer activity piling more pressure on rookie boss Steve Kean. Only a last day win at Wolves kept Rovers up last season and unless they find more firepower and fill the void left by Phil Jones’ departure, they will struggle again.

Wolves (9/1 to finish bottom) will be seen by many as relegation candidates, but Mick McCarthy has been shrewd with the captures he has made so far and they may be looking more towards mid-table than the bottom three this term. Roger Johnson is the type of centre-half they needed last season and he will sure up their flimsy back four.

At lot will depend on who Wigan (2/5 to stay up) keep this summer as to how well they will do this season, but Roberto Martinez had them playing good, effective football towards the end of last term and, although they are likely to face another relegation scrap, can survive again.

Under Roy Hodgson, West Brom (7/2 to be relegated) look to be heading in the right direction although the pressure will be on the Baggies boss to build on his current squad. He’s lost keeper Scott Carson and his signings, so far, this summer have been nothing to write home about.

Bolton (11/2 to be relegated) need some squad strengthening, especially with the threat of Gary Cahill leaving, but should have enough about them to be well clear of the relegation zone. While Fulham (1/20 to stay up), under the leadership of Martin Jol, have enough quality in their ranks not to be too concerned about the threat of relegation.

One side who could be dragged into the dogfight are Newcastle (6/1 to be relegated). They are yet to sign the big name the Toon fans expect following the recent high-profile departures of Andy Carroll and Kevin Nolan. Alan Pardew admits he needs at least a couple more players during the current window, in particular a 20-plus goal striker, and there is still the prospect of summer exits for the likes of Jose Enrique and Joey Barton.

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Paraguay poised for Brazil shock

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We now know two of the four teams who will contest the semi-finals of the Copa America, after Uruguay and Peru upset the odds in Saturday’s quarter-finals. Paraguay and Venezuela will be looking to do something similar when they take on Brazil and Chile respectively.

The Brazilians have been poor thus far and we feel there is a case to have a serious look at the Paraguayans ending any hopes the Samba Boys had of a third successive South American title.

Brazil v Paraguay (8pm)

Those who have seen much of the Copa America might have confused Brazil with Torquay United – the boys in yellow have been that bad, up until their 4-2 victory over Ecuador in the group stages. Coach Mano Menezes has so far failed to get anything like the best out of Brazil thus far in this tournament and they now face a team who came within minutes of beating the Selecao in the group stages. A late Fred equaliser saved the 7/4 favourites from an embarrassing defeat against a Paraguay team underrated by many.

Coach Gerado Martino has been in charge of Paraguay since 2006 and steered the South American nation to a quarter-final berth in the World Cup 12 months ago, eventually going out to Spain. While not the most attractive side left in the tournament, they are a tough nut to crack and have a physical side to them that many nations in the Copa America can’t call upon. They don’t score many and might have sneaked through the group stages but they are capable of an upset, as shown in 2004 when they beat Brazil in their last Copa meeting with the Samba Boys.

Brazil might have a list of star players as long as the Amazon River, but they look more like a collection of individuals than a team, unlike Paraguay. If La Albirroja can keep the likes of Neymar, Pato and Robinho quiet (easier said than done) there is no reason why they can’t upset the odds. Paraguay are 9/2 to win in 90 minutes but that is probably best left alone, with draw HT and draw FT at 21/5 the most likely outcome if Paraguay are to go through via extra time and maybe penalties.

Chile v Venezuela (11:15pm)

Much like Paraguay, Chile are another nation badly under rated and one who can’t be overlooked to go on and win the whole thing, based on how they have played so far. Arguably they looked the best team in the competition when navigating the group stages, beating Peru and Mexico, while drawing with Uruguay.

As demonstrated at the World Cup they have an attacking line to be feared, lead by Alexis Sanchez, and should have too much for Venezuela, who have a dreadful record against the Chileans. Venezuela have only ever beaten Chile once in 21 matches and have never reached the semi-finals of the Copa America. While we could have three upsets in the quarter-finalsm this is the one that should play out like everyone is expecting.

Chile are 8/13 to win inside 90 minutes, while you’d do well to consider Humberto Suazo at 6/5, Sanchez at 11/8 and Matias Fernandez at 7/4 to score at anytime for La Roja.

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Reds running to stand still

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Sunderland have been the busiest club in the transfer market so far this summer while Premier League champions Manchester United have not been shy to splash the cash either, but it is Liverpool’s dealing which are arguably providing the biggest talking points.

The Black Cats were beset by horrendous injury problems as the 2010/11 season wore on and it was only a late rally which saw them ease any outside chance of relegation to finish in a respectable mid-table position.

Stadium of Light chief Steve Bruce also lost star striker Darren Bent to Aston Villa in January – possibly the worst possible time – but he has responded by landing new players including the likes of Wes Brown, John O’Shea, Craig Gardner and Sebastian Larsson, among others.

Bruce maybe just needs a new striker and his work is done until the mid-season window, but his side is never going to overcome odds of 1000/1 to lift the Premier League trophy.

The fight for the title will be a five-horse race with the traditional big four of Manchester United (7/4), Chelsea (9/4), Arsenal (7/1) and Liverpool (10/1) joined by filth-rich Manchester City (4/1) in the shake-up.

The London pair have so far failed to add to their ranks – Gervinho’s switch to the Emirates from Lille is yet to be rubber-stamped – while City have been fairly low key by landing defenders Gael Clichy and Stefan Savic.

The Citizens are probably more pre-occupied with getting the best price for want-away captain Carlos Tevez although his touted replacement, Atletico Madrid’s Sergio Aguero, will not come cheap.

United and Liverpool, in contrast, have been pretty active so far, with the Reds of Merseyside continuing this summer where they left off in January following the big moves for Luis Suarez and Andy Carroll.

Many onlookers felt boss Kenny Dalglish paid well over the odds for Carroll, who at the time was not fully fit, and the same eyebrows were raised when the Scot raided Sunderland for Jordan Henderson, who reportedly cost in excess of £15m, and then added £20m-rated Stewart Downing to the squad from Aston Villa.

United have also thrown around bags of cash this summer on winger Ashley Young, defender Phil Jones and keeper David De Gea, with the latter two unproven at the highest level, like Carroll and Henderson.

However, the difference is that Liverpool are adding to their options from a position of weakness – they are on to their second manager since Rafa Benitez left just over 12 months while the ownership has also changed in the last year.

It remains to be seen whether or not their policy of recruiting players who promise much but have much to prove is successful.

But the fact is that United are arguably the most stable of the Premier League title challengers, have won the title four times out of the last five years and have appeared in three of the last four Champions League finals.

So Sir Alex Ferguson can afford to stir the pot, move players on and see who sinks and who swims.

And that underlines the fact that while Liverpool are making a lot of the running in the summer transfer market, they are ultimately running to stand still because not every move works out.

Just ask Alberto Aquilani.

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