Tag Archives: Hunter

Graham Hunter: Adopting the Groucho Marx position and how Ireland stole Scotland’s lovable losers crown

Posted on by
Reply

On behalf of Scottish football, just in case anyone in Ireland has thought about it, I reserve the Groucho Marx position.

Our marker is down, from now until the end of the qualification campaign in 2015 it’s ours. You can’t have it.

Which Groucho position? This one.

Groucho Marx

  • Who’ll make their Marx at Celtic Park? Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

“I sent my club a wire stating, ‘Please accept my resignation – I don’t want to belong to any club that will accept me as a member’ – Groucho.

Euro 2016 is the tournament that it’s ‘impossible’ not to qualify for, right?

No dress code, no age restrictions, never mind whether the bouncer has you on the guest list, not just for the in-crowd – if you’re not at this party it’s a guaranteed eternity of embarrassment.

Particularly, for Scotland, if elimination is at the hands of Ireland. Again.

And the most stylish way of pretending we never actually cared that much would be the Groucho position. ‘Better things to do in summer 2016′, grass to cut, handicap needs trimming – wouldn’t want to be part of a devalued Euro anyway..’

‘Twenty six teams? Ridiculous’
Aiden McGeady MBS

It left a Mark

What’s that I hear you asking? Why particularly embarrassing to exit to the Irish?

Well with all due respect, on behalf of my nation, we hold a grudge. A really big, nasty, festering, Friday night on Sauchiehall street after a good few bevvies one.

Never mind any gilding of the lily, Irish football really barely registered as a blip on anyone’s horizon before 1987. I’m nearly sure of that.

Mark Lawrenson playing for Ireland in 1987

LAWR CHANGER: Lawrenson’s winner against Scotland changed both country’s sporting fortunes (pic: Inpho)

It all started with THAT win at Hampden Park. Firstly, the free kick from which ‘Lawro’ scored should never have been taken – half our defence was still lying prostrate on the turf, the ball was played about a kilometre from where the foul had been given. The ball was never stationary. The dopey Dutch referee dropped a clanger the size of County Clare.

Secondly, you boys in green have never, ever admitted that qualification for Euro ’88 was solely down to us. Well, to Gary Mackay, actually.

His gorgeous goal away to Bulgaria [27 years ago this week] PLUS those two points (of which we were robbed by big Jack’s smash and grab merchants at Hampden would have put us through to Germany ’88) put Stoichkov and co out. Ray Houghton, Lawro, Stapo and big Paul McGrath through.

Any thanks? Any acknowledgement? Any sheepish acceptance that Hampden was daylight robbery.

Not a dicky bird.

Not So Bravehearted

Moreover, I can’t be the only Scot whose friends in Ireland have been gleefully ‘roasting’ him over the last few months.

Yeah, yeah. Seb Coe and co would say that ‘sport and politics don’t mix – should never mix’. But they do.

I’m quite certain that many in Scotland shared my Independence Referendum experience – admirably malicious texts, phone calls and emails from Irish pals in the build-up demanding to know whether the Scots would have the ‘cojones’ to seize their chance for freedom from the yolk of Westminster as Ireland once did.

Then, with equally gleeful malevolence, mocking our failure to put the ball in the net when the goal was gapingly open after Scotland narrowly voted ‘no’ in September.

And even though there’s a heat about this game because ‘it’s about the points, stupid!’ [to coin a phrase stolen from George Bush], a heat because two extremely self-confident and brutally confident ex-Celtic managers do battle – I think there’s a cultural-sporting context for it which vastly heightens the importance.

During Scotland’s slide into sporting mediocrity, independent-Ireland have not only neatly stolen our identity as the world’s favourite cheeky Celtic nation – the boys in green have become a better Scotland than we ever were.

From that moment in spring 1987 when Tiger Economy Ireland clawed Scotland at Hampden they’ve shown us how we should have done it when we were the top Celtic-cats

Billy Bremner misses against Scotland (1974)

  • Defeat could mean missing out on qualification. Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

Once it was Scotland’s birthright to beat Sir Alf Ramsey’s England at Wembley in 1967 and declare ourselves world champions. To scare the bejaysus out of reigning world champions Brazil in the 1974 world cup and only let them escape with a 0-0 draw because Billy Bremner missed an open goal. To draw with Iran but then beat Holland [four years on from being finalists in 1974 and a fortnight away from reaching the final again in 1978]

Ireland took all that and topped it. That’s sore to admit.

The Green Eyed Monster

Qualifying when we can’t. Beating England at Euro ’88. Absolutely rocking Italia ’90, beating Italy at USA 94, shame-free spot-kick losers to Spain in the Japan-Korea knockout stages. Recipients of the ‘we love you, you plucky victim’ award from the entire world outside France when Thierry Henry mistook football for basketball in that World Cup playoff.

That’s our gallant loser trophy you’ve stolen, that’s OUR ‘best fans in the world’ title you’ve shamelessly robbed. Identity theft is a serious issue.

And when we look around for solace – we can’t look at rugby or cricket any more either.

From just a couple of weeks after ‘Operation Lawro’ at Hampden in ’87 and for the next twelve years Scotland met Ireland at Murrayfield and Landsdowne road fourteen times losing only once.

Proper domination.

But of the next eighteen Ireland have won twelve. Torture. Six Nations titles, a bloody Grand Slam [and, yes, even we cheered when Ronan O’Gara dropped-kicked Ireland into an emerald heaven].

With bat and ball against the Irish Scotland’s ODI record is lost eleven of fifteen and in Twenty20 it’s an embarrassing played three lost three.

Ireland beating Scotland in cricket

ANOTHER BATTERING: Ireland are even dominating Scotland on the cricket field (pic: Inpho)

How the combined Shinty/Hurling contest is going I daren’t even look.

I don’t want to rope poor old Gordon Strachan into this rant of mine, he’s enough on his hands coping with street-smart Martin and the bragging-rights battle which [I have no doubt] is also at stake between the two former Celtic managers under whose swords, both as player and manager, the mighty have fallen.

But Gordon was in that team at Hampden in ’87 – watched his former Cup Winners Cup winning team mate Jim Leighton beaten by the ‘Lawro-goal’ which should never have stood.

He’ll want to put the world to rights. To put the cocky Celtic imposter back in it’s box. Then to send them a gilt-embossed card with the Groucho position beautifully printed on it so that, late next year, it’s the FAI who can post it on to Uefa and Michel Platini saying: ‘We never wanted to come to your party anyway’. Yours – The Boys In Green.

All together now: ‘You’ll never beat the Scottish’.

  • Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

Want £200 Free? Click here to visit Bet365 and claim your free money.

Graham Hunter: What David Moyes has done at Real Sociedad this week and my 11/2 tip to shock the champions

Posted on by
Reply

Atlético Madrid v Málaga, Saturday 3pm

This is the definition of an intriguing wee fixture carrying far more history, and ‘sizzle’ than is immediately apparent.

The reigning champions against a side which has been brutally asset-stripped since Manuel Pellegrini left.

No-brainer, right?

Hold your horses. Since Málaga drew at home to Barcelona in late September (preventing Messi and Co from getting a single effort on target and making it seem like Javi Gracia’s mob had about 15 players on the pitch) they’ve played six times and won five. Fifteen points via five back-to-back victories – one short of the club’s all-time record. Interestingly, too, the Malagueños have only won away to Atlético three times in history – but two of them have been in the last five visits (since Jan 2010).

  • In fact, in those last five matches at the Calderón, Málaga have two single-goal defeats (2-1 each time), two wins (0-2, 0-3) and last season’s 1-1 draw.

On which point, that draw should make this a grudge match for Diego Simeone’s lads. On the penultimate day of the season Málaga had nothing to play for, bar pride, but led 1-0 until relatively late and battled like it was for their lives. Barça drew at Elche that weekend so a win for Atlético would have meant the title and an ability to rest key players (particularly the injured Diego Costa) at the Camp Nou and get them fit and fresh for the Champions League final against Madrid which they failed to win by a handful of seconds before collapsing, exhausted, in extra time. NB the Spanish for revenge is ‘revancha’.

Nordin Amrabat, Málaga’s leading scorer (three) is out injured and although he’s not prolific I like Samuel Garcia as an anytime goalscorer at 11/2. Scored a brilliant goal at Atlético in that 1-1 draw last May, and two crackers in Málaga’s last four wins. P.S. Málaga’s last two away wins have cost the opposition coaches their jobs – Albert ‘Chapi’ Ferrer at Córdoba and Jagoba Arrasate at Real Sociedad. But if Paddy offers you odds on Diego Simeone to complete the hat-trick – politely refuse to invest your money, okay?

  • Latest match odds >

Eibar v Real Madrid, Saturday 5pm

Spanish football does many things well but has made a real botch-up of the Copa Del Rey. Cup ties (coming to a Sky Sports 5 midweek soon) are now home and away, ensuring that giant-killing is now as rare as finding a genuine, full-blooded, club-wielding, 15ft giant with a long beard and a stroppy attitude. So treasure this game. It’s as close to the magic of the FA Cup 3rd round as the Spanish game has.

The world’s best-known club, against one from a Basque town of 27,000 inhabitants. Played in a stadium which houses fewer than 6000 spectators, with several hundred watching from the terraces of tower blocks which surround the partially-open Ipurúa ground. This is Eibar’s first time in the top league in 74 years but they’ve played Madrid at home once before, in the Cup 10 years ago. A bonkers night which finished 1-1 but during which Iker Casillas had to excel.

The even better story, beyond the kitsch, is that Gaizka Garitano has got his side playing confidently, with great order and a dash of daring. The fact that Luka Modric is absent injured and Madrid’s central midfield needs re-jigging, will probably be better tested on bigger pitches than this. But elite coaches hate, just hate, that post International break threat of players having ‘relaxed’ and not yet being back in their club mindsets.

VULNERABILITY is the word which makes them lose sleep and snap irritably at the missus. Is this the moment to recommend that you back the total underdogs? I’m not certain Madrid (read Ronaldo) won’t cope. However if you wanted to favour Eibar then when they’ve had two weeks of planning, concentrated tactics and training, when Modric is out, when the game’s at Ipurúa and the referee has a record of Madrid only winning 17 of 31 games when he’s been in charge …. then there won’t be a better moment I’d venture.

If the improbable is to happen Eibar would need their ‘pichichi’ Mikel Arruabarrena to score but not only should Madrid bring home the bacon, I’m sure they’ll score no matter how the game goes. Thus to win the Basques, who play in ‘Barça’ colours, would need a special ‘jack-in-the-box- goal’. Who better than Catalan, ex Barça B Abraham who scores once in a blue moon but hit an absolute pearler at Atlético this season?

  • Latest match odds >

Barcelona v Sevilla, Saturday 7pm

I suggested a couple of weeks ago that Celta might win at the Camp Nou, and they did. When Barça failed to score that day it was the first time that had happened since Sevilla drew 0-0 there in October 2011.

That day the now pretty-much-forgotten Javi Varas seemed to have a personal grudge against Messi capped by saving his 90th min penalty.

Now it’s Unai Emery’s Sevilla who visit the Camp Nou and, like Celta, they have the pace, the technique, the attitude and the counter attack to win. Particularly following an international fortnight which can leave elite players sloppy and sluggish in its aftermath.

Perhaps the best reason to suggest that won’t happen this time is, again, the Messi/Sevilla goalkeeper situation. Emery (who’s never beaten Barça as a coach) suddenly has doubts about the hero of last season, Beto, and the keeper has looked gaffe-prone. Messi keeps missing chances which he’d normally bury but he’s still getting goals and assists thus when he re-calibrates by a few millimetres and overtakes the all-time La Liga scoring record (two goals to overtake Zarra) then you’d guess a splurge of hitting the net will follow such a pressure release. More, Luis Suárez utterly changed Barcelona two weeks ago when they played poorly at Almeria but won. You’d take both teams to score, perhaps an M’Bia header for Sevilla but both Messi and Suárez to save some Catalan blushes.

  • Latest match odds >

Deportivo v Real Sociedad, Saturday 9pm

Hail to the Scotia Nostra in Spain. Jack Harper, a talented young striker at Real Madrid, Ian Cathro, assistant coach at Valencia and now David Moyes in charge of Royalty. La Real have shown this season that when they play with pace and confidence they’ll give anyone a game. Fortunate beyond belief to squeeze past Aberdeen the effort absolutely knackered them and they’ve only managed to beat the Russian Cup finalists, the Spanish Champions and the European champions since.

All week Moyes has worked hardest on two things – winning the ball back aggressively and quickly when it’s lost and the strategy of set plays.

  • La Real go to a ground where they’ve won just six times in 36 visits, just twice in the last 10.

Depo, in the hands of a talented coach in Victor Fernández (do the names Nayim, David Seaman, Paris and 1995 help remind you who he is) are short of goals, short of talent, really, but they whipped Valencia 3-0 when Los Ché turned up lacking in intensity and concentration.

Can a foreign coach who has had to work through an interpreter and has only really been in charge for eight or so sessions impose his wishes, conquer La Real’s notoriously fragile confidence away from home and squeeze goals out of the under-performing Carlos Vela, Imanol Agirretxe or Alfred Finnbogason? Yes, by jove, yes he can! No worse than a score draw, Vela and Agirretxe to help out there and possibly even a 1-2 away beginning. Go on, Moysie.

  • Latest match odds >
  • Leg it over to Paddy Power’s La Liga coupon >

Want £200 Free? Click here to visit Bet365 and claim your free money.

Graham Hunter La Liga Preview: A potential 10/1 Real Madrid blank and goals all round between Barcelona and Valencia

Posted on by
Reply

Málaga v Real Madrid. Saturday 7pm

I’m sure that there are many who have a punt based on superstition, hunches – call it what you will. If you are one of that relentlessly intuitive band of gamblers then you’ll have a cheeky wee fiver on Real Madrid not scoring at Málaga on Saturday at 10/1.

Reason? Carlo Ancelotti’s team has won fifteen straight matches in La Liga, the Champions and Copa del Rey and in doing so they’ve equalled the all-time record throughout Real Madrid’s history.

It’s only happened twice before – under the great Miguel Muñoz in 1960/61 during the Di Stefano, Puskas, Gento era when Los Blancos won five straight European Cups, and under Jose Mourinho in 2011/12.

The Muñoz team had just been knocked out of ‘their’ European Cup by Barcelona and took it out on Liga opponents. Fifteen straight wins. Fifty seven goals in the process.

The Mourinho team ended their run via a 1-3 home defeat to Barça but prior to that won five Champions League matches and ten Liga matches on the trot. Hold on…. fifty seven goals in the process.

Carlo Ancelotti

THAT’s YOUR LOTTI: Will Real Madrid’s 15 game winning streak come to an end this Saturday? (pic: Inpho)

No, you’ll never believe it. Ancelotti’s fifteen wins on the bounce have yielded … go on, guess. Yes, fifty seven goals.

So if you believe in momentum and the power of a tremendously confident squad led by the irrepressible Cristiano Ronaldo then it’s money on Madrid to win at the Rosaleda and make all-time history.

But if you’re hung-up on signs and numerical patterns then Madrid have won their fifteen games, scored their 57 goals and .. that’s their lot.

A little more help you say? Málaga are sixth, close enough to the pack that if they’d won at Atlético at the weekend they’d have gone fourth equal. Madrid looked laboured for the first time in weeks while winning 1-0 at Basel midweek. Toni Kroos admits: “I’m tired” This should be their first firm test of playing without the injured Luka Modric against a team which knows how to stretch their midfield if they aren’t positionally shrewd. However perhaps the most persuasive factor is that Málaga can’t really afford to have one, never mind three, influential players missing. Amrabat and Juanmi [goals disappearing out the window] are both out injured while in midfield their natty little organiser, Camacho, is suspended.

Last week’s red for Samuel García has been rescinded … but is that really enough to balance out the losses? No, probably
not. Perm from Bale, Ronaldo and Isco, returning to his home ground, to see Madrid through.

PS, for anyone who hasn’t lumped on the league title yet each of the previous 15 game winning runs ended with Madrid winning the title. Hint, hint.

  • Malaga 8/1, Draw 4/1, Real Madrid 1/3 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

Atlético v Deportivo La Coruña. Sunday 11am

These midday kick-offs are a relative novelty in Spain – a football nation just waking up to the fact that there may, just may, be a reason why the Premier League, with less skill and flair, is economically dominant around the world. Now, key markets [Asia, the Gulf] will watch this game in their afternoon rather than [via Spain’s horrible 9pm Sunday kick-off] in the middle of the night.

There’s a knack to playing these early matches and that’s for Atlético that’s to eat Depo for breakfast.

The champions haven’t lost at home for 26 games [twenty wins, six draws] and it’s over a decade since Depo last took a point at the Calderón on a day when Diego Simeone was on the bench, but as a 75th minute sub rather than as boss.

Toché

Also on the same bench that day was Toché – now 31, now playing for Depo and currently their equal top scorer with two. Which tells you just about all that’s needed. Depo have four goals on the road [six games] and twelve all season. Meanwhile during Atlético’s last seven home games they’ve won the lot, scored 23 times and looked increasingly powerful. During that run Mandzukic has five, Griezmann four, Raúl García three, Koke two and Godín two. Cholo Simeone’s reign has been defined by his team winning games like this when Madrid and Barcelona are away from home and there’s just the sniff of an opportunity to close the gap at the top. Take your pick [Griezmann], but back the champs.

  • Atlético 1/6, Draw 6/1, Deportivo 16/1 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

Valencia v Barcelona. Sunday 8pm

There’s no getting around the fact that, traditionally, this is Apache territory for Barça. Across their decorated history they’ve lost to Valencia at the Mestalla in: the 1961 Inter City Fairs Cup final first leg 6-2; the 1980 Cup Winners Cup quarter final first leg 4-3; the 1999 Spanish Supercup second leg 1-0; the 2000 Champions League Semi Final first leg 4-1, the 2008 Copa Del Rey semi final 3-2. Major defeats. But it was nearly as seismic last season at the Camp Nou when Valencia won 3-2 – three points which if Barcelona had taken, it now transpires, they’d have won the title.

The deduction is that despite Barcelona’s nine goals in their last two games and Valencia’s derby defeat to Levante last week there’s no way that an away win is a ‘gimme’.

Luis-Enrique 840

Luis Enrique’s team appear to have found their best form of the season, or at least their most clinical finishing. Turgid in the first half against Sevilla last week they erupted via Leo Messi’s record-breaking second half and then trampled all over APOEL in Cyprus. But their manager has a disturbing unwillingness to play the same XI consistently, often changing the midfield and back four.

For Barça two key figures are Gerard Piqué and Messi. The latter has two hat tricks in two matches and appears both electric-quick and happy in his football. The former has put together three games, for Spain v Germany, and the last two club wins, where he’s played with confidence, form and passed the ball superbly.

Perhaps for Valencia it’s Diego Alves and Álvaro ‘the Beast’ Negredo. The keeper reserves his very best form for Barça – I’ve seen him make umpteen indescribably good saves in games where he stands between the Catalans and a humiliation for his side. Negredo scored his last goal in Spanish football against Barcelona [2-0 ahead, 3-2 defeat with Sevilla] and knocked the Blaugrana out of the cup with a goal and an assist for the Andalucians in 2010.

The most intriguing game of the weekend, both teams will score, Negredo will get off the mark, Messi will get another couple, Valencia have the capacity to win but Barcelona’s extraordinary goal power suggests they’ll do no worse than a score draw and quite possibly win 3-2.

  • Valencia 9/2, Draw 16/5, Barcelona 4/7 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

Sevilla v Granada. Sunday 4pm

The theme here is: ‘define crisis?’. After their defeat in Holland to Feyenoord on Thursday Sevilla, by their demanding standards, feel like they are in free-fall. They’ve won just once in five matches, tumbling from top equal with Barcelona on Matchday 9, to fifth and seven points off leaders Madrid today. In the Europa League if they lose their last group game [at home] to HNK Rijeka the holders will be eliminated.

At which point Granada can assume their Monty Python ‘Four Yorkshiremen’ personality and sneer: ‘That’s nothing! You’ve got it easy … we’d lick the sweat off a tramp’s socks to have it that good’.

Joaquín Caparrós’ team has scored just twice since September and, in fact, seven la Liga players have scored more than Granada’s entire squad this season. No, not just Messi and Ronaldo but guys like Celta’s Larrivey and Sunday afternoon’s threat – Carlos Bacca.

Estadio Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan

To add to the woes both Riki and Rochina are out injured, further damaging Caparrós’ ability to return to the club he did so much to ‘grow’, and register a needed win. Sevilla have to marshall energy quickly after their defeat in Rotterdam.

Granada’s main problem is their striker El-Arabi who hit twenty goals over the previous two seasons but just one this. Perhaps it’s his moment? For Sevilla Kevin Gameiro’s return isn’t yet yielding the goals he’s due so the responsibility falls squarely on Bacca.

  • Sevilla 4/9, Draw 10/3, Granada 13/2 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

Want £200 Free? Click here to visit Bet365 and claim your free money.

Graham Hunter: What Manchester United fans should know about David de Gea, his character, and his future at the club

Posted on by
1

That little notebook into which Louis van Gaal constantly scribbles while he’s on the bench during a match has become infamous – iconic of the irascible, eccentric but successful Dutchman.

Because we’re amongst friends, and this’ll remain hush-hush and strictly off the record, I’ll share with you what he was frantically jotting down on Tuesday night at about 9.35pm just after Manchester United scraped past Stoke.

(NB: Just like the very best method actors van Gaal insists on getting ‘into character’ so he writes in English now)

It went like this: Memo to Self

Tomorrow Morning: Phone José de Gea and thank him for travelling 100km per day to and from Atlético’s training ground when his kid was living in Illascas south of Madrid without which David would never have made it as a professional.

Next: Phone Martin Ferguson and praise him for spotting de Gea, with the Spanish youth set up as well as Atletico’s reserves, and identifying above all that this guy would become ‘a world class shot-stopper’.

Then: Fish out Eric Steele’s number and tell him he’s a ‘shtand-up fellow’ for insisting that despite de Gea’s lack of excellence [and physical power] in dealing with crosses – even in Spain, not just in Premier League terms – that ‘it’ll be fine, we can improve that aspect no problem. Tell the manager to sign him’.

Also: Have a quiet word with Giggshy who’s the guy that has ‘most surprised’ and deeply impressed de Gea since he arrived and who he still calls ‘the Number One!’ Get him to tell the boy we want more of the same.

Finally – FIX MEETING WITH ED WOODWARD. Subject: DE GEA NEW CONTRACT.

There you have it. It’s not always about Zonal Marking.

Louis van Gaal

Van Gaal then donned his ‘stone-face’ in the press room and trotted out some stuff about ‘De CHHHHHHEaaa’ not doing too badly. But that didn’t cover the debt he and United owe the Spaniard.

De Gea is now, in relative terms, almost precisely where he was with Atletico Madrid in mid 2011. Glitteringly good, a stand-out amongst the club’s assets, immensely popular with the paying punters and fellow players – but also in need of being challenged by ‘the next step’.

Which does not mean, automatically, that his next step in this phase of his career either requires to be, or is going to be, departing for a new challenge. Not at all.

Back in 2011 de Gea was part of an Atlético which was on the rise. Europa League and Uefa Supercup winners but surrounded by a third of a team which would survive and thrive, and another two thirds which would be moved on.

A bright future for Diego Godín, Diego Costa, Koke, Raúl García and Juanfran but lights out for Tomas Ujfalusi, Jorge Pulido, José Antonio Reyes, Antonio López, Quique Sanchez Flores, Elias, Paulo Assunção and Juan Valera.

United-watchers can choose whether Rafael, Antonio Valencia, Jonny Evans, Anders Lindegaard, Anderson, Ashley Young, Marouane Fellaini, Phil Jones, and Radamel Falcao fit into the ‘bright future/lights out’ categories.

But de Gea is right up there with the current United equivalent versions of Diego Costa, Koke and Diego Godín in 2011.

Just as they were then, United’s Spanish keeper is on the brink of a handful of very special years. Already a trophy-winner, already of proven quality, he nevertheless has what van Gaal calls ‘room for improvement’ but is also on the verge of stepping up and dominating completely.

De Gea’s soft underbelly when he arrived – concentration, upper body strength, speed of English-learning, diet, cutting-edge attitude – is well enough known and understood not to need re-hashing here.

José De Gea admits: “We had no idea of the size and grandeur of United. “Everyone tells you it’s ‘not just any club’ but until you arrive and see how they work, how they manage their football, you’ve got no real idea of the scale of it.”

Suffice to say, you can choose your iconic moment which best signifies his son’s subsequent excellence.

Freeze frame of the save from Mame Diouf against Stoke?

Marcos Rojo lunging into his arms to embrace him for saving those points?

De Gea ecstatically lifting the 2013 Premier League trophy? [His dad, Joel, still calls it ‘winning La Barclays]

Or him being handed trophies for being in the Premier League best XI and after being awarded the United player of the season vote?

Twitter chose mocked-up images of de Gea from the Matrix, de Gea as Superman, de Gea as the son of god after the Stoke game. They get excited on Twitter.

If Ed Woodward were to allow fans and sponsors an ‘open day’ at his office they’d probably come to an understanding that while de Gea’s new deal hasn’t been ‘put off’ [he’s out of contract in summer 2016] such has been the flurry of buying, selling and sacking at the club, the Spaniard has moved into a holding pattern.

If once Sir Alex Ferguson was seriously mulling over a bid to either challenge, or replace, De Gea with Asmir Begovic, then United are totally clear that they are now not seeking a new No1 keeper. A right back, a central defender and a winger, yes.

Carlo Ancelotti840

Along with what’s on offer to de Gea financially if he renews [which I believe he will do] is the promise from United’s most important figures – board, executives, coaching staff – that next summer’s push will be to put them on a par, quality-wise, in terms of squad depth and in terms of trophy aspirations, with Real Madrid and Carlo Ancelotti (above).

That would signify the equivalent surge forward which de Gea is now ready to take in personal, physical, psychological and professional terms. Just turned 24, for all his quite-evident excellence de Gea remains a footballer who thrives best under pressure.

The pressure of being prodded, cajoled and bullied [in a good sense] into adopting new standards by ex keeper coach Eric Steele. The pressure of impressing and winning the trust of Ferguson, particularly while being rotated with Lindegaard. The pressure of having lots of work to do during games. Perhaps even the pressure of having Victor Valdés around the training ground too.

It wouldn’t surprise me if the Catalan’s training/rehab spell at Carrington may have both troubled his international team mate – and driven him on to still greater effort.

De Gea always admired Edwin van der Sar, Iker Casillas and Peter Schmeichel but was most inspired, most influenced by Valdés, his football skills, his ferocity of attitude and his ability to deal with a defence playing as much as 30 metres higher up the pitch than him.

That the former Barça man is free, looking for a place to thrive in the Premier League and developed under van Gaal at the Camp Nou must have been unsettling. Typically, de Gea’s form has, if anything, improved.

Some keepers, like Valdés, thrive equally if they are making constant saves and interventions or if they have huge periods of inactivity then two or three crucial saves.

De Gea is beginning to emerge into that category – but United are not, yet, the team to take him there.

During this turbulent Van-Gaalization of the team and while the defending remains extremely raw the Spaniard will remain consistently occupied during matches.

But as/if the Woodward/Van Gaal revolution bears fruit United will once again dominate matches and de Gea will benefit from having his concentration tested differently.

The Spaniard is, if not timid, a quiet, home-loving, intensely serious and intense young man. He’s been fundamental in making sure that Ander Herrera settles in and is happy at United – the two of them and Juan Mata live within a stone’s throw of each other and they are the central core of the Spanish-society at United.

His sister and parents often come to stay with him in England, bringing Spanish food with them, and if anyone tells you that de Gea is in love with the climate of North Western England then challenge them on that assertion. The strategic question for de Gea and his representatives is whether United as a club, and as a squad, are in step with him – both now and over the next four years? Are they about to move up and become dominant?

The word on the training ground is that de Gea feels aware that ‘something is beginning to happen’ at the club. That the quality of signings is rising, that van Gaal is demanding in a way which will benefit those who wish to play and train as de Gea does.

Would Real Madrid love to have him? Yes.

Iker Casillas

With Iker Casillas on a mind-blowingly good contract for several more years and no more keen to hand over to de Gea at club than at Spain level would this coming summer be the time to succumb to that temptation rather than continue to develop, thrive and earn experience in the Premier League? No, probably not. Euro 2016 is at least a winnable tournament for Spain.

If de Gea wishes to be Vicente Del Bosque’s first-choice then better to be at a club where he is [while on form] guaranteed number one rather than take the huge risk of coping with the ire from fans of the club he supports [Atletico] and locking horns with Casillas at Madrid.

In order of priority Ed Woodward needs to convince de Gea that he’s at the right club, at the right time and renew his deal. Then de Gea must emerge into the category of Manuel Neuer and Thibault Courtois and Gigi Buffon – superb keepers but team leaders, intimidating rather than being simply impressive and must become a founding stone in the successful re-building of United.

Finally, if he has not already unseated him, he must be fully ready to take over from Iker Casillas in 18 months time as Spain’s number one.

Simples.

Graham Hunter is the author of ‘Spain: The Inside Story of La Roja’s Historic Treble’ and ‘Barca’. You can follow him on Twitter here

Top four… or more? Can Dave save Manchester United’s season >

Want £200 Free? Click here to visit Bet365 and claim your free money.

Graham Hunter: A 40/1 La Liga accumulator that could fund your 12 pubs of Christmas

Posted on by
Reply

Elche v Atlético Saturday 3pm

Like the seasick passenger on a cruise liner who has accidentally swallowed too many laxatives, Elche are in trouble at both ends.

Their 27 goals conceded make them the second most defensively incontinent side in La Liga – and they’ve only scored 12 times in 13 matches.

At the Martínez Valero, where they are La Liga’s ninth best supported club with an average of over 22,000 fans turning up to back them, it’s been torture – in six home matches this season they’ve only led once.

But there’s a stand-out. Up front they have the physically imposing, terrifically quick Jonathas.

He’ll be 26 in March and perhaps at this age he’s not going to be absolutely top, top class. But the Brazilian is a handful and to score six in 12 in this team [three in his last two home games] is no small achievement.

Coach Fran Escribá doesn’t need the added problem of one of his other stand-out players, David Lombán, suffering family problems which have prevented him training this week and hint that he might not play against the champions. A full-on competitor at centre-half he’s also author of a couple of Elche’s other goals.

Tipped Griezmann to get us a goal last weekend but he saved it until the midweek Copa win over Hospitalet – merci pour rien mon brave!

That said, his form is good and his only Liga hat-trick so far was for Real Sociedad against Elche last season. A pair of 2-0 wins for Atleti against this mob while winning the title, a couple of penalties awarded to them in those games – a win, a two-goal margin and, in all likelihood, another successful set-piece for Cholo Simeone’s team this weekend (Atleti -1.0 at 17/10).

  • Match betting >

Toni Kroos

Real Madrid v Celta Saturday 7pm

Perhaps this is where we get another hint about who’ll win the title. The Galicians have taken a draw and a win away from visits to Atlético and Barcelona already this season – but profile as much, much longer odds to escape without a doing here.

Okay, before I get bullish here’s the cautionary note. Of Celta’s last seven league visits to the daunting Bernabéu [admittedly dating back to 2001] they’ve only lost three. The other results include 1-2 and 2-3 wins plus a pair of 1-1 draws. Moreover, coached by Luis Enrique,

Celta beat los Blancos 2-0 up at the Balaidos last season in a result which confirmed that Madrid couldn’t win the title, thus robbing them of the first treble in their history. Put all of those factors together and no way Celta look like mugs here. But they are in the middle of a vertigo attack, poor dears.

Having won 1-0 at the Camp Nou on the first day of November they’ve not scored a league goal since, they’ve taken a single point, against lowly Granada, losing to Rayo and Eibar. It was Toto Berizzo’s front three which was separating Celta from the pack – at least while they were scoring. Nolito hasn’t got one since mid October, Joaquin Larrivey hasn’t scored since that Camp Nou goal and Fabián Orellana is the most culpable.

No net-bulging since mid September. Albeit using an experimental XI, that run of form hit its logical conclusion in the cup this week with a poor defeat away to second division leaders Las Palmas.

  • The front-of-house picture for Madrid is that they have just made history with 16 straight wins, everyone’s teeth are white and shiny like a US chat-show host and if you ask them nicely they’ll probably lend you a fiver till next weekend.

Away from the surface-glare the play has shaded just a touch.

Toni Kroos (above, for Germany) was rested for the cup game and won’t play midweek against Ludogorets because his systems are on overload [aka knackered] – Luka Modric is gonna be missed.

But it’s very hard to see beyond a three goal win for Madrid (-3.0 at around 6/4), more booty for James and Ronaldo and perhaps a little something for Chicharito (5/1 first goalscorer) whose game time is limited but whose form is sparkling.

Madrid have appealed Isco’s second yellow at Málaga last weekend. If rescinded he starts in a James-Kroos-Isco midfield. If not it’ll read James-Illarramendi-Kroos

NB: Ref Undiano has sent Ramos off three times in his career.

  • Match betting >

Win Draw Win Both Teams to Score

Rayo v Sevilla Sunday 12pm

That Sevilla don’t particularly like the Vallecas visit and might lose here is established – five defeats, two draws and just two wins since 1993.

However things have slightly fallen into their laps in terms of the build-up to what could be a stand-out game for attractive football.

Unai Emery’s side have Bob Beamon-ed their way out of a mini crisis with 10 goals in their last two wins.

Ahead of this testing trip to Madrid their last league game was over 24 hours earlier than Rayo’s [Sunday afternoon compared to Monday night] and at home to Granada rather than away in Almeria.

Then their Copa del Rey win over Sabadell was Wednesday, not

Thursday unlike Rayo who lost at home, 1-2, to Valencia.

It all meant that from Sunday evening onwards key figures like Carlos Bacca, Beto, Stéphene M’Bia, Dani Carriço, Nico Pareja, Éver Banega, Aleix Vidal and Vitolo could mix time-off with recuperative training and miss the 5-1 win over Sabadell.

How much faith do you put in that?

Don’t forget that because of the Uefa Supercup and Europa League guys like Carriço, Bacca and Pareja have 1700, 1400 and 1300 minutes game-time respectively this season.

Throw in the travel time involved in Europe and that’s a significant difference to Rayo’s most used player, Tito, with 1142 Liga minutes, star strikers Baptistão (above) or Bueno with 944 and 966 respectively.

Sevilla have scored the same number of goals as Rayo have conceded, 24 and in the 26 Liga matches the sides have played this season there’ve only been four draws. In theory it should favour Sevilla. It’s 14 games since they drew an away match – all wins or defeats.

Emery likes counter-attack, his team is confident and in-form and unless they leave their cojones behind them, and wilt, there’s the chance of a rare there points here for them. Even if they have to win it late on, should Rayo wilt.

  • Match betting >

Barcelona v Espanyol Sunday 4pm

Even if you pay intermittent attention to Spanish football you’ll know of Luis ‘Lucho’ Enrique. He crossed the divide from Madrid to Barça, played for Bobby Robson, won copious amounts of trophies and matured into a Camp Nou great. But Sergio González?

I’d wager you might struggle with the Espanyol coach. Until I remind you that with Super-Depor he won at Arsenal, scored in a win at Old Trafford, beat Bayern Munich home and away, beat Juventus, thrashed European Champions AC Milan 4-0 and scored in the 2002 Copa Del Rey final defeat of Real Madrid. At the Bernabéu. On the 100th anniversary of Madrid’s foundation.

As a side note, he scored, too, on his Espanyol-Barcelona derby debut back in April 1998 when [as on many occasions] he was up against Luis Enrique.

Does any of that influence who’ll win on Sunday? No, but allow a man to set the scene.

Lucho and Sergio represent precisely what this Derby-lite lacks.

The city doesn’t shudder to a stop as in Madrid, Milan, Manchester, Liverpool.

At the Camp Nou there will be a mere trickle of away fans. Next to no noise – even should they win.

But, regularly, there’s intensity bordering on nastiness on the pitch, and the two coaches represent ‘this is my club’ spirit – the types for whom there’s a significant ‘edge’ to a game like this. If the fans felt the same way about it we’d have a spectacle on our hands.

Right now Barcelona are Jekyll and Hyde. Stormingly good in much of their attacking play at Ajax and Apoel, dozy in the first half against Sevilla then devastating thereafter. Then dopy and slower than sludge for 80 minutes last week against Valencia only to grimly keep plugging away until they hit an added time winner.

  • It’s worth paying attention to the fact that not since Mauricio Pochettino took last-placed Espanyol to the Camp Nou during Pep Guardiola’s treble-season and won 1-2 in February 2009 have Los Periquitos even scored on a visit to Barça.

The plain fact is that Sergio doesn’t have a single player, with the possible exception of the excellent Sergio Garcia, of his class and sustained excellence.

It’s hard not to back Leo Messi, six goals and an assist in his last three games, and hard to explain why Luis Suárez’s form went backwards last weekend after he’d broken his duck in Cyprus.

Those who admire the Uruguayan will bet on him making Espanyol pay. Andrés Iniesta is back, looking in decent form, which isn’t necessarily a hint he’ll score but definitely a supply of better ammunition for Neymar, Messi and co. Barcelona by three (at about 7/4).

  • Match betting >
  • Atletico -1.0 (17/10)
  • Barcelona -3.0 (7/4)
  • Sevilla to win (6/5)
  • Real Madrid -3.0 (6/4)
  • La Liga betting coupon >

Want £200 Free? Click here to visit Bet365 and claim your free money.

Graham Hunter: Isco inferno can set Bale on fire with this 3/1 Friday night cracker

Posted on by
Reply

Almería v Real Madrid, Friday 19.45

We’d all like to know the truth. What the hell is the magic elixir that allows a group of players poor enough to get the previous coach sacked to suddenly produce a power-play in the first game under new management and perform like world-beaters?

It has happened throughout the history of football but the most recent example was the Real Sociedad shirkers getting Jagoba Arrasate the heave-ho and then going out and beating the Spanish champions within a couple of days under the temporary control of Asier Santana.

So, Almería have eschewed the normal logic of letting Fran Rodríguez take a doing in this match against the European champions and THEN sacking him so that the new guy has a less fearsome start. Miguel Rivera is Johnny Two-Jobs this weekend, running the first team’s attempt to knock Madrid off their stride tonight and then back in the saddle with Almería B on Saturday afternoon against Granada B.

“It’s like winning the lottery,” reckons Rivera, whose cup minnows, Ecija, drew with Real Madrid 1-1 back in 2006.

In his favour should be the fact that this lot very nearly took three points off Barcelona a couple of weeks ago and that while Almería have won just once in 10 attempts [all time] against Madrid, since 2008 there have been two draws and a home win between the clubs at this stadium.

Which is not to ignore the fact that unless Madrid have their mind on the impending flight to Morocco for the World Club Championship then they’ll win. By hook or crook.

The quality of their football has dipped from boiling to simmering over the last couple of games but the flood of goals has, largely continued.

El Blackoutico! Money-Back if there's a goal inside 15 minutes of Real Madrid v Barcelona

Ronaldo was niggly in midweek against Ludogorets, partly at Gareth Bale’s occasional choice to favour attempting to score ahead of feeding the team leader.

  • On that subject, IF you want to ignore Ronaldo’s goal chances in this extraordinarily prolific season of his [over 30 goals in all competitions by early December] then Bale scored home and away against Almería last season, as did Isco who added a clutch of goal assists too.
  • Karim Benzema interests – eight in 12 in La Liga, five in five in the Champions League. It might just be that if Bale and Ronaldo aren’t feeding each other goals with the same vigor, perhaps the Frenchman will be the beneficiary of their assists.

Madrid by two, Isco and Benzema good candidates, but first goal important and for those in-play keep a close eye on whether players who have an impending date with a world title perhaps hold a little back. (Under Match Specials: Madrid to win by exactly two goals is 3/1)

Ref Álvarez Izquierdo: 11 matches with Madrid, eight wins, one draw two defeats – away to Celta and Sevilla.

  • Dip into the latest Real Madrid match odds here >

Last weekend, Graham predicted the following on the Paddy Power Blog: Atletico -1.0 to beat Elche (won), a three-goal win for Real Madrid against Celta (won), Sevilla to beat Rayo (won), and Barca by three against Espanyol… which won. Decent.

Want £200 Free? Click here to visit Bet365 and claim your free money.

Graham Hunter: A cheeky 9/1 punt in Barcelona’s trip to Getafe, while David Moyes may settle for a derby day draw

Posted on by
Reply

Last weekend, Graham predicted the following on the Paddy Power Blog: Atletico (-1) to beat Elche (won), a three-goal win for Real Madrid against Celta (won), Sevilla to beat Rayo (won), and Barca by three against Espanyol… which won. Decent.

Getafe v Barcelona, Saturday 3.00pm

He’s not often praised for it because it raises uncomfortable themes but Gerard Piqué once expressed this phenomenon most honestly and accurately. Without quoting Getafe in particular the Barcelona centre half admitted, at the height of his powers around 2011, that there were times when a match, for club or country, held little appeal. His point was that elite footballers can get so used to the ‘champagne’ moments of testing away matches in Milan or Munich, or to Cup semi finals and finals or to games via which the league title is going to be decided that if it’s a cold midweek evening in a little stadium with very few fans, the pitch is lumpy and it’s a commonplace rival with nothing exotic about them then motivation can be hard to dig out.

The general pattern of Getafe games over the last few seasons has established just that pattern for Barça. If they are concentrating, motivated and determined to win then they’ll score four, five or even six against this unloved suburban Madrid team.

Gerard-Pique-Barcelona

But if the Catalans aren’t quite ‘on it’ then they can easily lose or draw. Evidence is at hand in that Getafe drew 2-2 at the Camp Nou last May, a game which cost the title, and won at home as recently as 2011.

Cosmin Contra [what a fearsome flying wing back he was in his day] has made his team hard to beat but goals are their problem. Abdoul Yoda is their main source of goals but has no previous goal record to speak of across his peripatetic career prior to Getafe. Pablo Sarabia does tend to trouble Barça’s defence. Luis Enrique’s equivalents, Leo Messi, Neymar and Luis Suárez, finally all scored in the same game in midweek – something you’d imagine we are about to see happen more regularly. Messi has ten goals and an assist in his last five matches and feels unstoppable.

In terms of the pattern of the game Barcelona have a bad habit of starting slowly, often conceding first, and needing what’s called the ‘remontada’ in Spanish football – a comeback win. It’s not beyond imagination that if Getafe were to take the lead they might damage Barcelona with a draw. But you’d need a creative imagination all the same. Barça to win 3-1 (a 9/1 shot) - Messi, Pedro and Suárez to find the onion bag.

Ref watch: Vicandi Garrido – one match, one defeat with Barcelona [Celta at home]

  • Get stuck into the latest odds on the Barca game here: Desktop | Mobile

Atletico v Villarreal, Sunday 6.00pm

This should be fun. Given Villarreal’s relatively recent emergence as a Spanish power there have only been 26 meetings between the sides but they average over three goals per game in that time.

The Yellow Submarine don’t mind torpedoing the Mattress Makers [Colchoneros] in Madrid every now and then – but they don’t insist on it. Polite. And where the crux of this meeting rests is which of the two sides can best cope with intense midweek football better – a factor which has to favour the Spanish champions.

Atleti may only have drawn 0-0 in the Champions League but it was with Juventus and secured group leadership. Villarreal had the long travel to and from Nicosia, their game was on Thursday night rather than Tuesday and Marcelino chose to use a relatively strong lineup.

That said, Villarreal have rattled in twelve goals in their last five games via seven different scorers – Vietto, Gerard, Uche, Moi Gomez, Cheryshev, Bruno Soriano and Nahuel.

Vital for Atlético to win this one however. Through in Europe, Spanish Supercup holders and the last side to beat Madrid it’s still the case that there’s been a big dip since last season – mostly due to the loss of talent sold in the summer. At this stage a year ago Atleti had won twelve, drawn and lost once each, scored 38 and conceded nine for a goal difference of 29 and 37 points. Now it’s won ten, lost and drawn two each, scored only 27, conceded 12 for a difference of 15 and thirty two points. If that drift continues across the season then the title is out of reach.

Miranda (above) should return and gets the odd set piece goal, Raúl García is due a goal and Antoine Griezmann was rested against Juve so should get significant minutes in this one. 2-1 Atleti for me at 7/1.

Ref watch: Pérez Montero – Eight matches with Atleti, one defeat. Reffed these two sides a couple of seasons ago in a 1-1 draw. Horrible news for Villarreal that it’s Pérez Montero – seven matches and not one win under him. Four defeats, three draws.

  • Dive into all the latest La Liga odds right this way: Desktop | Mobile 

Real Sociedad v Athletic Bilbao, Sunday, 8.00pm

The last time an ex Everton manager was in charge of one of these teams in the Basque derby it was all so different. Howard Kendall coached Athletic Bilbao – now it’s David Moyes with Real Sociedad.

Daid-Moyes

Just to add to the Mersey theme the biggest thorn in Kendall’s side back then was former Liverpool striker John Toshack. In charge of Real Sociedad in those late eighties seasons he constantly found a way to beat Kendall’s Athletic in the derby, home or away.

One famous example was in October 1987 when Toshack’s La Real won 4-1 at Kendall’s Athletic with Manchester City Director of Football Txiki Begiristain and Real Sociedad Director of Football Loren both scoring. But another person Toshack tormented as a predecessor to Moyes at La Real was current Athletic coach Ernesto Valverde. When Toshack returned to run things at the Anoeta for the second [but not last] time he won the first Basque derby after his return, in November 1991.

In that Athletic team was a winger who to this day doesn’t know what it feels like to win at the Anoeta – Valverde. As a player he has three draws and three defeats while as a coach with Valencia, Espanyol or Athletic Bilbao three defeats and two draws [including one for Athletic  where his club were two nil up and still lost 3-2]

Result-wise Aritz Aduriz (below, somewhere) is crucial for Athletic. They’ve only scored twice in the 600 minutes they’ve had to play without him this season.

He should start – but how fit is he? Scattered across both squads there are players who’ve scored in this fixture – Muniain, San José, Toquero, Prieto, Vela, Susaeta, Pardo and Iñigo Martínez. But not one with a big track record of rising to the occasion. Agirretxe is out for La Real, as is Mikel and Zaldúa and they fell apart defensively a week ago in Villarreal.

Winning his derby debut would be like winning the Christmas lottery for the Scot – but a point, rather than the jackpot, looks a better prospect and the draw is 11/5.

Ref watch: Fernández Borbalán – twenty six matches with Athletic, eight wins [two of which in the Basque derby], twelve defeats and five red cards. With La Real 20 matches, only four wins – one of which the 3-1 defeat of Barcelona last season.

  • Derby day delight for Dave? Get stuck into the latest betting here: Desktop | Mobile

Want £200 Free? Click here to visit Bet365 and claim your free money.

Graham Hunter: This 34/1 La Liga treble should draw a crowd while Alfie can make Moyes merry at 6/1

Posted on by
Reply

If the world were spinning correctly on its axis then there’d be more cheers and fierce booing before this match than anything during it – no matter how many goals Messi scores, or if Cordoba happen to produce the shock of all shocks in Saturday’s 3pm clash with Barcelona.

The reasons come in the shape of the Cordoba coach and their President.

WDW& BTTS All matches

Miroslav Dukić was a no-nonsense central defender for Deportivo La Coruña back in 1993/4 – a time when Super-Depor had led La Liga for 23 straight weeks, right up to the final weekend of football.

Depor were at home to Valencia, Barcelona, their pursuers, at home to Sevilla. So long as Depor matched Barça’s result they were guaranteed champions.

Johan Cruyff’s Dream Team thrashed Sevilla 5-2 and until the 89th minute in the Riazor Depor were tied 0-0 against Gaizka Mendieta’s Valencia. Then, penalty Depor. Bebeto ducked responsibility, Dukić stepped up … the Camp Nou froze while transistor radios were pressed to thousands of ears – and the penalty was saved.

A fourth straight Spanish title for Cruyff’s Dream Team. Surely Dukić is owed the [ironic] honour of being applauded out on to the Camp Nou?

Barcelona-800

  • Shoot over to all the latest La Liga betting now on desktop | mobile 

What of Cordoba President Carlos González?

Well in the Dream Team that day, at right back, was one Albert Ferrer – Olympic Gold medallist, European Cup winner at Wembley and, thanks to Dukić, newly champion of Spain again.

Last summer he took Cordoba up to Spain’s Primera Division for the first time in 42 years, he was given about eight games to prove himself and then González, the coward, wouldn’t even face him when he sacked him, sending ‘Chapi’ Ferrer a text saying how ashamed he was of his actions that he couldn’t bear to see him. If that doesn’t deserve a hostile reception at Chapi’s spiritual home, I don’t know what does.

Neymar is fit again, and should start, while Luis Enrique expects ‘more of the same’. ”

We’ve prepared for a typical game – a rival who shuts up shop at the back and tries to cause problems on the counter. If there’s anything we are accustomed to – it’s that.

Most of Barça’s stars have had a week off, they average four goals every home game and there’s nothing to suggest that this should be hugely different.

David Moyes

Levante v Real Sociedad, Saturday, 5pm

David Moyes is learning as he goes in his new country and while he learned something nice this week, that Alfie Finnbogason CAN actually still score goals, there was something altogether less pleasant for him to assimilate when it came to surveying the Levante game on Saturday at 5pm..

La Real’s away form has been horrible for many, many months. They seem to lack the physical stamina, the concentration and worst of all the belief to consistently pick up good results on the road.

But Levante is a case apart. Not only have the Basques NEVER beaten little Levante in Spain’s top division, in five of their last seven meetings La Real have taken the lead only to go on and either draw or lose. Savage stuff.

Moyes the Merrier

It looks likely that Carlos Vela won’t make it because of a muscle strain and there are seven more of Moyes’ squad who are fitness doubts.

Perhaps there’s a blessing in disguise. He’s filtered a variety of ‘kids’ into his last few matches and to absolutely no ill-effect.

Finnbogason’s two goals in the Cup victory over Oviedo means he’s a striker with some confidence again and worth following (6/1 for first goalscorer) in that he has at least got himself into something like six or seven scoring positions in the last two matches.

Chory Castro should make the game and is in form, Iñigo Martínez [despite missing a sitter v Athletic] threatens from set-pieces while for Levante their burly Brazilian striker, Rafa Martins, who’s taken a Finnbogason-length of time to score, is now looking fit, quick and dangerous whether as a starter or sub.

Hard to have faith in La Real on the road but if they go one up this time, have a punt on them not losing this time.

Nuno Espirito Santo 840

Eibar v Valencia, Saturday, 7pm

One way in which this new, voracious Valencia give you a bit of joy is that only once in their last seven away matches have they failed to score. They are ‘in’ almost every game, combative, buzzing with menace and self-belief despite being newly constructed and brimful of youth.

Maybe that’s part of the explanation for their record of four red cards already this season. For that reason André Gomes [potentially their most impressive addition this season] will be missing from midfield in the Basque country in this tiny [literally] stadium which is directly in proportion with the tiny [27,000 inhabitants] town, whose inhabitants have never enjoyed Primera football before.

Sent off last week against Rayo, the last time Gomes missed a game it was, just to round the argument off nicely, the only time in the last seven away matches when Valencia failed to score. In fact that week they went from having thrashed Atlético at home to losing, limply, at Deportivo la Coruña. Gomes is on five bookings so he’ll miss the next match too while both Gayá and Javi Fuego are one yellow off suspension. Does or doesn’t that influence how forcefully they play? I always wonder.

Their ref here is Carlos Velasco Carballo who HATES a red card. Ninety eight of them in 191 Liga matches says to me an average of a sending off just about every second game.

Just one in eight matches this season so the law of averages is screaming at him right now. ‘Off, OFF. OFF!’ What to make of Eibar. Not only do they sit ninth, better than any other promoted side across all of Europe’s major leagues, they hit five goals in their last home game and are off the back of a superb away draw to Sevilla.

They ain’t to be taken lightly. Although Mikel Arruabarrena is top scorer with just four, Gaizka Garitano’s side have shared their 19 goals across eleven different scorers including Saúl Berjón who’s an emerging gem of a forward.

Neither Feghouli (9/1) nor Piatti (13/2) are prolific for Valencia but they give the width the pace and both are nice side-bets for an unexpected goal if you fancy moving away from the market-leaders like the Rodrigos or Negredo.

simeone_840

Athletic Bilbao v Atletico Madrid, Sunday, 8pm

    • Shoot over to all the latest La Liga betting now on desktop | mobile 

 

Athletic have a reliance on Aritz Aduriz akin to dolphins and water, human beings and oxygen or Piers Morgan and cheap publicity. Complete. So to see the striker return from injury for the Basque derby last weekend but then be used [instead of rested] for the last 13 minutes of Athletic’s squeaky-bum Cup tie against third division Alcoyano on Thursday night tells you a) how worried coach Valverde was about going out and b) how little he trusts Los Leones’ other striking alternatives. What little Alcoyano knew was that meanwhile Athletic find it harder to score than North Korea does to keep its nose out of other people’s business they had a right chance. Valverde admitted:

We were sluggish up front. To get through we had to grit our teeth and hang on to the single goal lead.

Not a great advert.

Athletic, once fearsome at the new San Mames, have lost at home three times this season already and needlessly dropped other points to draws. They’ll be without Iturraspe in midfield and Laporte at centre back against Atlético, both suspended.

This fixture has a wonderful rhythm to it. Going back years and years if one team wins it’s home game the other will reverse that next time they meet. Better still, if, say, Atleti win in Bilbao, Athletic will win in Madrid next time they meet and vice versa. The original tit for tat. Everyone wants to be tat.

Diego Simeone has some choices to make. Losing at home to Villarreal last week [much against my expectation] his team looked massively tired, with Diego Godin wading through concrete when the scorer, Vietto, gamboled by him.

Then they lost two goals at home to Hospitalet in the Cup. Something’s not right.

On balance the fact that Atleti score and Athletic struggle to do so suggests there’s a risk of an away win here. That’s something they achieved last season [1-2] despite Athletic leading. San Jose is a goal threat for Athletic at set pieces, Borja Viguera is beginning to find his feet. Antoine Griezmann must get his chance to start and if he does he needs to impress his boss with a goal. Atletico need to figure that they can’t give Real Madrid another present while the league leaders [try to] become world champions in Morocco.

Expect the Basque pride to rouse Athletic and the Spanish champions will need one heck of a better pace and intensity than they’ve been capable of recently in order to better a score draw.

Acca Bonus

Want £200 Free? Click here to visit Bet365 and claim your free money.

Graham Hunter: How a Barca comeback could bag you a 19/1 winner in this week’s La Liga preview

Posted on by
Reply

Valencia v Real Madrid – Sunday 4pm

Although you have to be a bit careful with your pronunciation, it’s an inescapable truth that football loves a bit of rancour.

Games with an ‘edge’, ‘bad blood’. Grudges.

Even though the last three Valencia Priméra División titles were won by coaches who were Real Madrid ‘purebloods’ (Alfredo di Stéfano in 1970/71 plus Rafa Benítez in 2001/2 and 2003/4) the animosity felt by Los Che towards Los Blancos has pushed this clash into the bronze medal position behind the Madrid derby and El Clásico. In terms of rancour.

Mestalla Stadium

Aside from two big clubs locking antlers every rutting season the special spice actually stems from the contentious move of Predrag Mijatovic from the Mestalla to Madrid as far back as 1996.

Valencia’s player of the season with 28 goals, and within a few months of becoming runner-up in the Ballon D’Or, he bought himself out of his [1,250 million peseta] contract and moved to the Bernabéu. Title first year, winning goal in the Champions League final the following. Cue increasing Valencian bitterness.

And football fans nurture grudges, keep them warm, hand them down to following generations.

Which is partly why there’s been a big internal debate at Los Che as to whether Madrid should or shouldn’t be given a guard of honour as they run out at the Mestalla on Sunday evening having made themselves World Club champions with their last game of 2014.

Valencia have a code – if their opponents have won the title, the Copa Del Rey or the Champions League they get applauded on to the pitch by Valencia’s players. The temptation, given that the World Club cup isn’t mentioned, was to set a hostile, ‘We’re Valencia, who the hell are you…?’ tone to the match.

Enzo Perez

The home side just spent their equal highest transfer fee to finally buy Enzo Pérez from Benfica [greeted by 8000 fans] and he’ll replace Javi Fuego in midfield.

Just to add to the match’s ‘bite’ it was Valencia’s 2-2 draw at Madrid last May which significantly helped cost Carlo Ancelotti’s mob the title.

For those who treasure numbers more than words six of the last seven of these Liga meetings at the Mestalla have resulted in five or more goals – 35 of them in total. Significantly, the only game in that run which did NOT yield five or more was the last time Valencia beat Madrid at home, 3-0 in 2009 thanks to the impact of Juan Mata, David Silva and David Villa.

Gareth Bale

Ronaldo, of course, and Benzema enjoy scoring against Valencia but if you want to look elsewhere Gareth Bale notched the goal of his career to win the Cup here last season, Isco was trained-up as a kid at the Mestalla but has never scored a Liga goal there while Álvaro Negredo was trained at Madrid and has three wins and four goals in 12 meetings with them since. At stake is Madrid’s run of 22 competitive matches unbeaten plus Liga leadership. Only four, not five, goals this time – and shared too!

Hunter’s Punt:

Gareth Bale to score anytime – evens

  • Valencia 5/1, Real Madrid 8/15, Draw 3/1 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

Real Sociedad v Barcelona – Sunday 8pm

So, imagine the scenario. Barça goes out for a right good bevvy with the lads on Hogmanay to celebrate the end of a damn awful 2014.

It’s good but wild and on New Year’s day heads are heavy, coffee is needed and there is talk of ‘hair of the dog’. Then Mrs Barça shrieks down the stairs ‘don’t forget you’ve got a game on Sunday’.

‘Who the bloody hell against?’ roars the hungover Barça from the sofa, ‘Just tell me it’s NOT Real Sociedad away … is it? ‘Please don’t let it be them …’

Think of this: across the decades Barcelona have been one of the world’s great clubs, consistently powerful. Yet only twice since the mid 1950’s have they won consecutive matches in San Sebastian.

Anoeta Stadium

No matter the gulf between the sides Real Sociedad somehow consistently come up with wins and draws. The last fifty years have seen only 12 away wins in 52 visits compared to twenty defeats and twenty draws. Indeed they’ve lost three and drawn the other in their last four Anoeta nightmares.

For those who’d like to think of another of those it may interest that neither Neymar nor Messi returned to training until Friday [with Luis Enrique’s permission] which would often be not soon enough to start. Perhaps the Barça coach views that subject totally differently. Equally, while La Real look beatable if Barcelona are on form it’s a stark fact that the Txuri-Urdin have beaten both Real Madrid and Atlético with high-octane performances already this season. The post-break training sessions have seen both Mikel González and Imanol Agirretxe back at work with the group but most attention will centre on whether Carlos Vela is fit to start [80/20].

David Moyes

This has the air of a Jack Spratt and his wife type of match. One of them could eat no fat, the other no lean. Barcelona consistently spend 45-60 minutes looking dull and sluggish in matches then [often] roar away with them or get late winners. On the other hand La Real don’t seem to have massive stamina and regularly start more brightly and then see opponents finishing with a flourish. Tempting to think of the match going lose-win for Barcelona in terms of half-time/full-time.

Hunter’s Punt:

Half-time/Full-time:: Real Sociedad/Barcelona – 19/1

A vital, vital match for the Blaugrana. Should they continue their recent habit of losing here and Madrid win at Valencia then Barça would probably be, at best, one more defeat away from kissing goodbye to the title. In January. Tempting to perm between Luis Suárez, Pedro, Messi [only three of his fifteen league goals away from home and no away goals since week 7 at Rayo], Alfie Finnbogason, Vela and Zurutuza for the goals. Over to ‘Mister’ Moyes.

Real Sociedad 7/1, Barcelona 1/3, Draw 9/2 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

Atlético v Levante – Saturday 3pm

Start the year by backing the champions to settle an old score.

Last May Levante kick-started the ‘just as well we’re wearing brown shorts anyway’ sequence of the La Liga run-in for Diego Simeone’s champions-elect with a 2-0 win – a sequence which saw Atleti squeak home despite only winning two of the last nine points on offer.

simeone_840

That defeat was in Valencia but even the equivalent of this match last season was only a well-contested 3-2 win for Los Colchoneros, causing Simeone to say on Friday:

“Levante are a tough bunch who know exactly how they want to try and play. “It’s a hard test for us and I expect a full, noisy stadium to try and inspire us.”

Stadium-noise and raucous support are usually to be taken for granted at the Calderón – there was a genuine ’12th man’ effect during the title win. But since the hooligan violence before the Depor match and efforts to squeeze the ‘Frente Atlético’ Ultras out there has been a seeping away of atmosphere, almost a divisive feel to the general mood. Perhaps New Year-old sentiments is what the manager most wants.

That, alongside the form they showed last time out in the second half away to Athletic when they hammered the Basques thanks to a Griezmann hat-trick [he’s zero for nine in matches against Levante in his career]. Mario Mandzukic and Koke both return from suspension but Miranda’s not fit and Fernando Torres doesn’t make this squad [paperwork]. Atleti keep on scoring from dead-ball situations so perhaps picking one of them for a first-goal isn’t a bad thought. “Atleti are intimidating at set-plays” admitted Levante coach Lucas Alcaraz before the match.

Gabi

As to the chances of a Gabi goal let’s just tell this straight as a die. Both he and Arda are at risk of missing next week’s huge match at the Camp Nou – a booking and they are suspended. Gabi is also one of 41 charged with fixing a match against Levante back in 2011, a match which saved his team, Zaragoza, from relegation thanks to Gabi’s two goals in a 1-2 win. Streetwise to leave him out for this one against Levante then? Perhaps … but would that be typical of the chin-out, ‘no-one pushes me around’ Cholo Simeone?

Perhaps it’s worth nothing that Levante have never won at the Calderón on league duty and they are third lowest scorers in La Liga, boasting the fine record of having failed to score in eight of their matches. David Navarro is suspended so 38 year-old Juanfran, sent off in this fixture last season, returns. Atleti lost their last home game of 2014. Unthinkable that they don’t put on a show and win by two clear here.

Hunter’s Punt:

Atletico Madrid -1 goal – 4/7

  • Atletico 1/5, Levante 12/1, Draw 11/2 – Bet Now:  Desktop | Mobile

Sevilla v Celta – Saturday 5pm

If you are perverse, if you hate the ‘obvious’ then this profiles as a guaranteed away win. Sevilla are Spain’s only team to get this far in the season unbeaten at home. The reigning Europa League champions haven’t lost at the Sanchez Pizjuan for sixteen matches. Celta, on the other hand, haven’t scored in the league for 575 minutes, losing all but one of their matches since the first day of November. Adding nicely to that stat is the fact that Nolito and Larrivey, authors of 12 of Celta’s 17 Liga goals thus far, are both suspended for this match.

Estadio Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan

So, there you have it. How can Celta possibly lose?

In fact since the Galicians returned to the Primera they’ve three wins and just one defeat to their higher-profile, more successful rivals.

To judge Sevilla’s readiness you’ll have to decide whether you’re a cup half-full/cup half-empty type of punter. Do they have the greatest chance of cobwebs given that they last played on December 14 because their match against Madrid was postponed? Or are they likely to be sharper, rested and fine-tuned, having been back in training since Boxing Day?

A special match for two diehard Celta fans in the Sevilla ranks, Denis Suárez and Iago Aspas, so football history suggests you back one of them for an ‘any-time’ goal. Back from injury, Charles should start up front for the visitors, Fabián Orellana gets the odd goal but for the romantics Borja Iglesias, prodigious in the youth team, debuts in the first team squad and if there’s to be a surprise it’d be kinda cool if he produced it. Form says home win though, perhaps 3-1.

Hunter’s Punt:

Sevilla to win 3-1 – 12/1

  • Sevilla 4/6, Celta Vigo 4/1, Draw 11/4 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

Want £200 Free? Click here to visit Bet365 and claim your free money.

Graham Hunter: How a swashbuckling Real Madrid could bag you a 10/3 winner, plus an 18/1 draw double in this weekend’s La Liga preview

Posted on by
Reply

Real Madrid v Espanyol – Saturday, 3pm

Madrid are a bit like those of us who say: ‘I’m not a morning person’. Bleary, sluggish – but capable of erupting into a blitzkrieg of action after a wee coffee. The Serena Williams of the football world. Yeah?

At the beginning of the season they were a bit Rip Van Winkle in defeats to Atlético and Real Sociedad, looking short on turbo-power. Lacking a cutting edge. Carlo Ancelotti warned then that these effects were temporary, that his fitness work would click and that the players would impose their class. So it proved. They won five straight in the league hitting 25 goals.

Right now they are suffering similar effects to the early season torpor. The physical and mental demands of setting a record of 22 straight wins, the post Christmas-break sluggishness – these factors affected the last two defeats, 2-1 to Valencia and 2-0 to Atlético in La Copa.

The question is: will that spark return this afternoon?

Carlo Ancelotti

Twice since 2008 Espanyol have popped up with a 2-2 draw at the Bernabéu but generally they are punchbags in this fixture.

Their coach, Sergio González, was co-author of one of the biggest shocks at this stadium, when Deportivo La Coruña won the Copa Del Rey at the Bernabéu beating Real Madrid on the day of their 100th birthday back in 2002. In fact he scored. A repeat would be epic – but also an epic shock.

Sergio García is, by a distance, Espanyol’s best player – European Championship winner with Spain in 2008. Barça-trained as a kid and Catalan to the core he’d presumably fancy augmenting his record of only having scored twice against Los Blancos and not having won once in 15 attempts. Sergio Ramos is rested, Rafa Varane, an out-of-reach Manchester United target, will partner Pepe in defence while Álvaro Arbeloa will keep his place at right back as Carvajal is suspended.

El Blackoutico! Money-Back if there's a goal inside 15 minutes of Real Madrid v Barcelona

Perhaps the most tempting factor is that Cristiano Ronaldo is going to collect another Ballon D’Or trophy on Monday night and, showman that he is, you’d expect him to take personal responsibility for a win with the flurry of goals his game has been lacking for the last month. Madrid to win by a two goal margin (at 10/3), Ronaldo (2/1 to score first) and Varane (15/2 anytime) on the scoresheet. 

  • Get stuck into the latest odds here: Desktop | Mobile

Malaga v Villarreal – Saturday, 5pm

Two happy stories bump heads. Málaga thought they had won the lottery but it all went a bit Viv Nicholson for them as the money which Al Thani promised started to run dry, salaries weren’t paid and a Uefa ban came thumping down on them. The crash and burn effect of such run-ins with sudden wealth can be horrific but, somehow, the seaside club has not only taken the body blow in its stride … Málaga are damn impressive.

Their youth academy has produced them a clutch of terrific young talents, players who not only wear the shirt with extra pride but who have clear, mercurial talent with which the local fans passionately identify – hence the terrific attendances at the Rosaleda. [La Rosaleda holds 30,000 and the average crowd this season is over 25,000]

Samuel García, Samu Castilejo, Juanpi, Portillo Juanmi and Sergi Darder are all 24 or under and have all spent healthy amounts of time in Málaga’s own youth system. Roque Santa Cruz has moved on so now there’s an emphasis on Nordin Amrabat turning his marauding form into goals … and avoiding injury a bit more.

Villarreal’s verve has been such a refreshing presence in La Liga that their bouncebackability after one season demoted was mega-welcome. Last year was consolidation, this season Marcelino has them playing terrifically attractive football where Denis Cheryshev, Bruno and Luciano Vietto stand out.

  • The Yellow Submarine have scored in every single one of the 19 games they’ve played since losing 0-2 to Madrid in late September. They have scored in all but one of their 14 away matches this season and Villarreal have fifteen different scorers in all competitions. Málaga have scored in each of their last 14 matches so you might like a ‘both teams to score’ flutter at 4/5

Villarreal’s cavalier attitude cost them a win at Elche last week when from 2-0 up they drew 2-2 so perhaps their heavy programme [eight Europa League matches plus league and cup] is taking a toll. But back them to do no worse than a point in a score draw at 10/3, possibly an away win at 6/4.

  • All the latest La Liga odds are just a click away: Desktop |Mobile

Celta v Valencia – Saturday, 7pm

‘Celta plays good football even though it hasn’t been going well for them over recent matches. ‘They are dynamic, they keep the ball well, they make chances – current results don’t reflect Celta’s real personality’.

Never truer words from Valencia coach Nuno Espirito Santo.

Celta were good enough to beat Real Madrid at the dog-end of last season, draw at Atlético in September then record their first away win against Barcelona as ‘recently’ as November. After which, you’d guess, their coach Eduardo ‘Toto’ Berizzo must have dropped a consignment of mirrors.

Injuries, errors, bad luck and total confusion amongst his players about what those posts and nets are actually for – that’s been Celta since the win at the Camp Nou.

  • They are 665 minutes without a league goal. Sixty seconds more and there might be a numerical clue about what’s going on.

Just to torture Toto a bit more Celta remembered how to score in the Copa del Rey, seven in the last thee matches, but completely forgot how to defend in the midweek Cup tie against Athletic Bilbao which they lost 4-2 at home.

Joaquin Larrivey, leading scorer, is still banned as a result of mistaken identity [ref hears insult, ref waves red card, striker suspended for four games despite being innocent party] but at least Nolito is back in the squad after injury.

Two defenders, Cabral and Planas are absent so, as such, Valencia have a chance of maintaining their push for glory with an away win.

But their personality is as changeable as Scottish weather. They thumped champions Atlético in October, then went and waved the white flag at struggling Deportivo in the next game, losing 3-0. They gave Barcelona a chasing one week then barely scrambled a draw at Granada next time out. And Los Che dismantled Rayo in the league on December 13, 3-0, but three days later only drew 4-4 at home against the same side.

Valencia lost in Vigo last season, Charles scoring twice and he is worth a look again having hit the net against Athletic in midweek (15/8 anytime). Álvaro Negredo (23/10 anytime) doesn’t mind a goal against Celta, three in two, and his two goals in twelves matches since signing for Valencia don’t fully reflect his effort, chances or form . Score draw at 16/5 anyone?

  • Get stuck into the latest betting here: Desktop | Mobile

Barcelona v Atletico – Sunday, 8pm

The key is Messi. No change there I hear you say. Fine, but consider this.

  • Leo Messi’s goal record against Atlético is 17 in 20 matches – not too shabby.

Now factor in the extra data.

  • It’s seven games since Messi scored against Los Rojiblancos, across two long years.

Do the arithmetic. He treated Atleti like rag-dolls before – scoring 17 times in 13 matches. Since Diego Simeone really got hold of his squad there’s been a total Messi drought.

Correspondingly, Barcelona are now six games without a win against the current Spanish champions – one defeat and five draws. Atleti have got their number and that number is 10. The one on Messi’s back.

Lionel Messi training Argentina

Barcelona are still, theoretically, competitive in this league because of their home form. Away from home they have become limper than a wet dish-rag. In the league at the Camp Nou they are averaging nearly four goals per game but here’s the key – Messi has scored 13 of his 15 Liga goals at the Camp Nou. If Atleti manage to clamp him with their defensive congestion charge then they’ve a chance of a draw or better.

If Messi, as electric and ‘involved’ as at any time this season when orchestrating the 5-0 Copa win over Elche on Thursday, wriggles free then Barça should win and strike a huge blow against the tidal wave of ‘crisis’ headlines which have engulfed them.

681x94_cashout_accas

Little vignettes proliferate across this game. Luis Suárez against his international team-mate Diego Godín should be herculean. Mario Mandzukic’s last visit to the Camp Nou didn’t yield a goal but did give a 3-0 win for his Bayern side – the Croat versus Gerard Piqué will be worth admission money. Ivan Rakitic has three goals in ten matches against Atleti which doesn’t make him prolific but it’s as many as he’s scored against any opposition in his career and it was against Simeone’s team he incurred one of only two red cards in his career. Xavi’s absence may mean the Croat playmaker joins Busquets and Iniesta in the midfield three. Finally, Antoine Griezmann. Again. Opened his account against Levante last week, netting twice having never scored against them previously. He has two goals in his last two meetings with Barça but hasn’t ever scored at the Camp Nou. Take your pick. But the win/lose equation centres on Messi.

  • Who comes out on top? Get the latest betting right here: Desktop | Mobile

Want £200 Free? Click here to visit Bet365 and claim your free money.