Graham Hunter: Get Real with his 10/1 correct score punt on Madrid plus an 8/1 treble involving Barca, Valencia and Fernando Torres

Córdoba-Real Madrid Saturday 3pm

The kind of match to watch out for. Córdoba spent months looking like they weren’t cut out for la Primera and their cowardly President sacked Albert Ferrer by emissary, and then text, rather than be brave enough to tell him to his face.

A pox on him I say.

When the Andaluz side lost heavily at the Camp Nou in December, the players got the mother and father and next door neighbour of all rollickings from their flint-hard aggressive coach, Miroslav Djukic who then told the world in general that his lads lacked ‘cojones’ and had simply turned up to swap shirts with the Barcelona stars.

At that stage they’d won just once and were in free-fall. Since the tongue-lashing they’ve picked up seven of the available nine points.

The European champions have had a week of dedicated training and preparation thanks to being out of la Copa – but these games, I guess, are the kind of David v Goliath moments when a small side desperate to stave off relegation sometimes somehow catches the big-guy complacent and dozy.

El Blackoutico! Money-Back if there's a goal inside 15 minutes of Real Madrid v Barcelona

If, and I stress IF, that’s your considered view on this test for Carlo Ancelotti’s mob then try this.

Nabil Ghilas is the striker Algeria left behind when they went to the Cup of Nations and he’s got a bee in his bonnet about it.

I’d have loved to have defend my country’s colours but since I moved to Spain they’ve ignored me and now I’m set on scoring against Madrid and winning to show them what I can do. I’ve shed six kilos since the start of the season and right now I’d not say that it’s a dream to score against Iker Casillas because when I’m on the pitch and in form I always believe I can beat anyone.

He’s top scorer with five – one of which won Córdoba their first victory away at Athletic Bilbao for 42 years.

But the two who stand out, quality-wise, are the pair who combined for last week’s 10-second goal against Eibar. Fede Cartabia, a flamboyant Argentinian winger on loan from Valencia, made it for Florin Andone – a 21 year old Romanian brought up near Barcelona. Ferrer loved the kid’s attitude and emerging ability but injury hampered his development.

Now he’s got three goals in five games and although the impoverished club charges him €50 he can barely afford [he’s on youth team wages] for each match shirt he keeps – he’s going to swap this one with a Madrid star come hell or high water. Preferably having beaten them.

Ronaldo, (above) despite knee pain, should start, Pepe is still injured so Rafa Varane plays and you’d imagine that Sami Khedira should deputise for Isco, also injured [and a loss].

Usually you can stand on Honest Carlo’s words and the Italian reckons his team benefitted from a dedicated week, are ready to perform and, thus, it’s probably time to back Goliath to duck the slingshot. 1-3. NB, a promising 24 year old Portuguese striker, name of Bebé is in the Córdoba squad. They say United are interested….

Graham’s bet: Real Madrid to win 1-3 @ 10/1 

Luis-Enrique 840

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Elche-Barcelona Saturday 5pm

Keith Moon dies, Charlie Chaplin’s coffin is stolen and then recovered, Jamie Carragher, Gigi Buffon and Emile Heskey are all born, Dallas [JR, Sue Ellen and the Poison Dwarf] airs its first episode and Garfield is created.

  1. The last time Elche scored against Barcelona.

Nine games across those Buffon-Carragher-Heskey years, an aggregate of 30-0 in favour of the Blaugrana during those 810 minutes.

Three of those matches have come this season with a 3-0 league win on the opening day complemented by an aggregate 9-0 thumping in the Cup where Fran Escribá’s side was clinically dismantled.

It doesn’t take a genius to work out that if, again I stress that word really heavily, you see something to set your little gambler’s heart going pitter patter in the way Elche play then it must be because of Jonathas.

The Brazilian striker is reminiscent of Diego Costa, albeit in 2009/10 with Valladolid, when he’d remorselessly harass defenders when he didn’t have the ball and wage war on them when he did.

Jonathas, already 25, won’t turn into a world class finisher like Costa did but he has power, height, aggression and reasonable technique.

As for Barcelona – will they be the group which drew 0-0 at Getafe and Málaga and surrendered 1-0 at Real Sociedad? Or will they repeat the urgency, unity and dazzling skill of last week’s 4-0 win at Deportivo la Coruña?

Lionel Messi 2013

Despite a monumental challenge in Madrid this Wednesday against Atlético in the second leg of the Cup quarter final, Luis Enrique’s named a strong squad, not resting a single key player.

So, for those who like to bet in-play the things to look for would be a) does Luis Enrique’s team press and mob the opposition … or give off a ‘can’t be bothered’ Kevin the Teenager approach to that blue collar work? The other thing, which for purely alphabetical reasons we’ll call b) is: how fast is the ball moving between players.

Recently Messi (above) and Co. have made the football fizz and zip between them and opposition [Elche, Atlético and Depor] simply haven’t been able to cope.

It’s not a time to back against Messi, he’s hotter than Johnny Torch, but there’s value in looking at Alba and Pedro. Alba simply knows where the goal is and pops up every so often at longer odds while Pedro might get more game time than normal in order to assure one of the ‘big’ three up front is particularly fresh for the midweek tie at Atleti.

Maybe we’ll get memories of ’78 – ticker-tape, the Argentinian World Cup, the debuts of 3-2-1 and Grange Hill plus that last Elche goal against Barcelona [though this lot have only put two shots on target against the Blaugrana in 180 minutes this season].

But even though Escribá and gang organized a 0-0 nil in this fixture against a knackered Barça last May it’s tough to see them doing anything other than shipping two or more goals this time.

Graham’s bet: Barcelona (-2 on the handicap) @7/5

Fernando Torres 800

Atlético-Rayo Vallecano, Saturday 7pm

This, for the uninitiated, is a Madrid derby. For the initiated, it’s a game without the crackle of excitement it would usually merit because Rayo’s boisterous, noisy, loyal and generally admirable fans are boycotting the game.

Pity. Paco Jémez’s team made life objectionably difficult for the Spanish champions on the first match weekend of the season

But it’d be remiss of me not to remind you that the last time Rayo beat their neighbours they were coached by Juande Ramos, Kasey Keller was in goal and Jimmy ‘Pichichi’ Hasselbaink was up front for Los Colchoneros.

In fact let’s stick with Jémez for a minute. Utterly dedicated to the Pep Guardiola school of football his team are more ‘front-foot’ than the forward half of a pantomime horse.

There are hints that a) he’s well enough thought of at Atleti that he might be next in the door whenever Cholo Simeone leaves but also b) that whether or not the Atleti job is on offer this summer Jémez, who’s asking for a bigger contract raise in order to renew than Rayo want to pay, may hit the road anyway.

Suffice to say that he’ll ensure his team try to put on a show today. Future employers may be watching. [A nice little vignette is that Jesus Muñoz, Jémez’s assistant, was room-mate to Atleti legend Fernando Torres when El Niño first broke into the Atleti team. Wouldn’t you just bet on Torres repaying the friendship with a goal to break Rayo hearts?]

Anyway, not to repeat an earlier point, Simeone’s champions have a testing mid-week match with Barcelona and you’d bet he’ll shuffle the pack in terms of a starting XI.

Raul Garcia should start, might score, both Koke and Arda need to prove fitness. Diego Godín is suspended so Manucho might just get a chance to add to his headed goal at Real Sociedad last week.

But Rayo really want to get Leo Baptistao fit enough to play, and score, against his former team.

Graham’s bet: Fernando Torres to score anytime @ 5/6

Nuno Espirito Santo 840

Valencia v Sevilla, Sunday 8pm

A downright corker.

Two sides, both economically challenged, locked in mortal battle for the fourth place in La Liga which can win you anywhere from €10m to €50m of Champions League revenue.

You want more!

Two sides who fought to a standstill in the semi final of the Europa League last season, until Stéphane Mbia popped up with one of those ‘where the hell did that come from?’ second-leg-94th-minute-away-goal winners.

More? Mas? As they say here in Spain.

Both sides have recently been thumped by Espanyol in the Cup – Valencia 2-0, Sevilla 3-1.

And, finally, you still want even more? Okay. Unai Emery, currently the coach of Sevilla, Europa League holder and sitting cosily in fourth position, did terrific work in charge of Valencia, helped them make huge profits on footballers who thrived under him and kept on getting Los Che champions league qualification. But he was perpetually undervalued – by the club, by the media, by the fans. He’ll be given a sometimes frosty, sometimes hostile welcome back at the Mestalla on Sunday night.

Two wins apiece in the last four of this Liga fixture in Valencia and Mbia’s on international duty so not able to repeat his feat.

Bacca often repays a backer, Gameiro’s form is on the rise and Valencia have been conceding headed goals of late so you may like to look at Pareja or Carriço.

As for the home side, Negredo played for Sevilla long enough to know their weaknesses and score against them, Álcacer is long overdue reward for his good movement and Andre ‘I shoot on sight’ Gomes deserves to hit the net more often for his quality of movement and work rate. Draw looks good, but Sevilla look a tad tired. Valencia to win by one goal.

Graham’s bet: Valencia to win @ 6/5 or Valencia to win by exactly one goal @ 11/4

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Graham Hunter: Why Real Madrid have a little in common with Chicken Licken this season

Deportivo la Coruña v Real Madrid

Real Madrid’s opponents this weekend, Deportivo La Coruña, once represented perhaps the healthiest years in La Liga history.

They’d scout brilliantly, play superb football, regularly meet and beat teams like Manchester United, Arsenal and Milan. They were a force.

One of their most emblematic traits was that, at the Riazor in La Coruña (3pm, Saturday), Madrid just couldn’t beat them. For 18 long years there was the odd draw but also a regular flow of three, four and five-goal wins for Depo – often coached by an Atlético legend in Jabo Irureta, just to rub salt in the wound.

To put that kind of hex in context this was across a spell when Madrid reached and won three Champions League finals.

Biggest club competition? No problem.

Three points up in Galicia? Forget it.

Zidane v Keane

Roberto Carlos, Beckham, Figo, Zidane (above), Ronaldo never won at the Riazor while they were Galacticos.

The run from 1991/2 to 2009/2010 finally ended thanks to a 3-1 win inspired by two Karim Benzema goals, one of which is now infamous for a sublime Guti backheel into the Frenchman’s path when Guti seemed free to score himself.

Now Depo represent just about all that ails Spanish league football. Held together by player loans and bank debt there have been times in recent months while the team yo-yoed back and forward from the Second Division, when the club was a candidate to go out of business.

The last formal statement was last year when the total was €153m and they recently admitted owing €63m to the Spanish Revenue as part of that.

What has not changed since that January 2010 win for Manuel Pellegrini’s Madrid broke the jinx, however, is that the Riazor remains a place where Los Blancos need to sweat.

Since then there’ve been two whoppings at the Bernabéu, 11-2 aggregate, but a 0-0 draw and 1-2 away win courtesy of an 88th minute second goal for Jose Mourinho’s Madrid.

A cautionary tale about Real’s weaknesses

This weekend attention turns to Albert Lopo (above) if he starts. The big central defender has played all three league fixtures for Victor Fernandez, but the coach, who often put out winning Celta Vigo and Real Zaragoza teams against Madrid in his day, has been rotating the team significantly.

Why Lopo? He’s scored for both Espanyol and Depo against Los Blancos, the last a headed winner against a back five which sported Casillas, Ramos, Pepe and Marcelo.

Madrid fear the ball in the air more than Chicken Licken feared the sky falling on his head. More? Booked in all three of this season’s matches, Lopo hates a card. Just hates one.

Sent off 13 times in his career and booked 136 times he’s not the quickest and referee Pedro Pérez Montero sports a record of 18 reds in 55 Liga matches. One every three games.

Madrid to win, however. In both of their horror defeats, away to La Real and home to Atlético, they made oodles and oodles of good scoring chances but only put three of them away.

The way in which they hammered Basel in midweek and the relief, for Benzema, James and Bale to get on the scoresheet should de-stress their finishing. Worth noting, however, that their second half performance, just as against La Real and Atlético declined.

Ronaldo will be extra motivated to score at one of only two La Liga grounds this season where he’s not celebrated with a goal. Pepe is injured and Rafa Verane will start in his place.

IF Madrid were to lose then a sniff in the direction of next Liga coach to lose his job might be a forward investment.

Lionel Messi stat La Liga

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Levante v Barcelona

Munir made his Spain debut here a couple of weeks ago, Busquets and Pedro scored then too, against Macedonia, and the great majority of this squad has twice celebrated clinching the title on this ground in Valencia.

Happy hunting ground? Not necessarily so. Of Barcelona’s last seven Liga visits to the Ciutat De Valencia (8pm, Sunday) there have been four 1-1 draws. What I think makes that all the more significant is that the results have come under four different managers using significantly different XIs.

There’s something about this fierce, proud little community and the tight pitch, which was muddy and sluggish down the middle when Spain beat Macedonia back at the beginning of September, which forces Barcelona to be at their sharpest and most aggressive if they want three points.

Something which hasn’t, yet, been the case under the Luis Enrique revolution. Thus far Leo Messi has contributed four assists and scored two goals. Take them away [for the sake of argument] and Barcelona would have registered just one win, scored just one goal and would be under extreme pressure.

Levante don’t like scoring

No question, under ‘Lucho’ Barcelona are working harder, beginning to look more fluent and neither keeper, Claudio Bravo nor Marc-Andre ter Stegen, has had to make more than one significant save.

The pressing all over the pitch has helped see to that. But backstage after the 1-0 win over APOEL numerous players and staff used the word ‘espeso’ to describe their performance.

It’s the word you’d use if the sink pipe was blocked – i.e. not particularly fluid. Luis Enrique has used 22 of his 26 man squad, too many changes in too short a time, frankly.

Neymar hobbled out of the stadium on Wednesday and it’d be a surprise if he started. Time for Munir and Pedro again? NB it’s now 369 minutes since Levante scored a league goal… on that form you’d kinda fancy Barcelona to see out a good win, if they got the first goal.

diego simeone, atletico madrid manager

Atlético v Celta Vigo

Cholo v Toto. No, it’s not code. It’s how this battle will be seen by many. Diego Simeone v Eduardo Berizzo. Two aggressive Argentinian street-fighters, with half a lifetime in common, doing battle for the first time as opposing coaches.

They played each other as kids for Newells Old Boys and Velez, they took lumps out of each other for Celta and Atlético as players, shared the national shirt of Argentina to good effect and both, in their fledgling years, coached at Estudiantes.

And perhaps, just perhaps, Toto has picked a good time to head back to Kansas.

Atlético lost only one game and conceded just five goals en route to last season’s Champions League final yet in Athens in midweek they lost to Olympiakos, conceded three times and looked as stretched as they’ve done in Europe for several years.

Mario Mandzukic is out for at least a fortnight after a reparative nose operation and you’d bet that Miguel Ángel Moyà will replace Jan Oblak in goal.

Tiredness was a word which Simeone didn’t allow to feature in Atlético’s dictionary last season… but might there be a trace of it this weekend at Vicente Calderon (7pm, Saturday).

Long journey to Athens, beaten in a sweaty, aggressive cauldron, long journey home – still no Simeone on the bench this weekend.

Heads you win

Celta like to play 4-3-3 in possession, 4-1-4-1 without the ball and, like Atleti are taught to press the opposition high up the pitch and to work like hungry dogs.

Atleti, without Mandzukic, will probably use Raul Jiménez and Antoine Griezmann up front leading to more breakaway counter attacks and a return to the ball played quickly over the top or into channel-runs as last season for Diego Costa.

Celta’s best player, Nolito, is fit again but might not start given that Celta host the Galician derby [v Depo] this week… but with Toto you never know.

Between them, the two sides have scored five headed goals already this season so a look at that for first goal, with perhaps Joaquín Larrivey [two goals already this season and a headed goal for Rayo against Atlético last season] or Diego Godín in mind might reward.

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Graham Hunter’s La Liga preview: Real Madrid should sink The Submarine and don’t be surprised to see red when Atletico meet Sevilla

Villarreal [7th] v Real Madrid [5th] – Saturday 3pm

  • Villarreal 15/4, Real Madrid 4/6, Draw 3/1 – Bet here: Desktop | Mobile

Villarreal wins over Real Madrid come along about as often as a Scottish Independence referendum so it’s very tempting just to vote ‘No!’ here without listening to the debate.
The last time that fabled event took place Manchester City wasn’t even a gleam in Manuel Pellegrini’s eye and Real Madrid still heaped faith and optimism in Lassana Diarra and Royston Drenthe – whatever happened…… Never mind.

It was May 2009, just the second such triumph in their history and only three players from that night, Casillas, Bruno and Cani, can repeat this weekend. Each of them holds the potential to be a major participant.

Carlo Ancelotti (below), right now, is forcing all of us who pay attention to Spanish football to mimic him, in raising our left eyebrows like caterpillars ascending Alpe D’Huez for the Geometrid King of the Mountain’s title. Just over a week ago this most affable of Italian football godfathers began to snap and snarl at people who asked him about the goalkeeping situation. ‘No debate, I’m not getting into all that – Iker is the first team keeper and we won’t be rotating like last season’. Two games later he rotate the keepers.

Or… did he?

Carlo Ancelotti840

With Madrid’s home fans split down the middle over whether to chant in support of San Iker [Saint Iker] or whistle and jeer him, Casillas was left out against Elche. Rotated? Dropped? Keylor came in, did fine but basically had no work. Now Ancelotti says that he will not be playing one keeper in the Bernabeu and another in away matches but will not, either, confirm which of the two will be in the starting XI against Villarreal. [Iker I reckon]

So, what the hell is he up to?

As for Bruno he’s one of the most hard-working, agile and smart midfielders without a high profile in Spanish football. A local boy, he’s someone who could take advantage of the fact that while Toni Kroos is now the ‘organising midfielder’ he does have a tendency to go walkabout.

Then there’s Cani. Rested for Villarreal’s last game, 1-1 at Eibar, he has the aggression, height, know-how and ambition to produce something special on the big occasion, just as he did a year ago on Gareth Bale’s debut, here, in a 2-2 result which ultimately helped cost Madrid the title.

But, don’t ignore the obvious. Ronaldo (below) loves scoring at Villarreal – five in his last four visits – and he’s also hit seven in his last two Liga matches (4/9 to score anytime). The Submarine have three draws a defeat and a comeback win having trailed 0-2 at home to struggling Rayo to show for the weeks after shining in the Europa League qualifying. Imposing themselves and winning is costing them the world at the moment.

Gio Dos Santos is near to return, 20 year old ‘Lucky’ Luciano Vietto scored twice last week to open his account and Uche is working like a dog to supercede his injuries….. but it’ll take a strange twist of events if Madrid don’t add to their wee run of victories, even if at a reduced margin. Ronaldo (4/9 anytime) and Bale (10/11 anytime) to score and see them through.

Ronaldo celebrates

Barcelona [1st] v Granada [8th] – Saturday 5pm

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Football is rock n roll, football grabs the senses, puts them in a high rev spin and returns them to you at the end of 90 minutes – football is a Ryder Cup-high every weekend. Football is king of sports. So let me make your adrenalin soar and your pulse rate rip through the Stock Aitken and Waterman hi-energy beats per minute.

Barcelona and Granada had 67% and 59% of possession in their midweek games … and neither team even managed one paltry effort on target. ‘Football, bloody hell’ [© SAF] Barcelona regularly struggle to beat Granada by more than a single goal and they lost to them last season [1-0] in a match where they bombarded the penalty area but could have been there until August without scoring.

More, Barça’s Messi-dependency has grown over the last year and a bit.

Lionel Messi 2013

If he’s on form, either as an assist-giver or scorer, Barcelona will beat most sides and become trophy contenders. If not, and he once again looked sluggish and tired in midweek even before Malága defender Weligton proved that not only can his parents not spell, he can’t read the rules of football [Clue: it’s NOT WWF] they huff and puff.

Does this paint as a possible banana-skin game for the home side?

Granada don’t concede much, they beat the Catalans last season, they’ve a healthy eight point total already and their coach, Joaquín Caparrós is one savvy dude with a wealth of La Liga know-how. Luis Enrique says: ‘I expect a complicated rival. ‘They are very strong defensively. ‘They work hard, they are smart at set pieces and they counter-attack well. ‘This’ll be the same as almost all our games this season’

Mebbe so. I’ve got a slightly different view. Granada not only were beaten at home in midweek [Levante] they were battered the previous game when winning in Bilbao on a day when they could and should have conceded about five. Barcelona were strangled all over the pitch by a super-industrious Malága midweek – it was one of those which looked like 14 men playing 11.

But the first thing which Caparrós targeted in criticising his team’s midweek slump was their intensity. Their work rate, their concentration but above all their intensity.

Iniesta-Spain-v-Ireland

If they repeat that and fail to learn from Malága’s excellence – they’ll be beaten. In Jhon Córdoba (5/1 anytime) and El Arabi (9/2 anytime), Granada have two big, quick strikers capable of running beyond Barcelona’s extremely high defensive line – can Bravo keep his goal secure [none conceded in the league thus far] and head towards a record? He’s 8/13 to keep a clean sheet.

Andrés Iniesta (above) hasn’t shone yet and needs to – this is just the type of game in which he might open his account (2/1 anytime) but Ivan Rakitic, who’ll take some of the free kicks and who’s not scared of a shot from distance, might add to the one he scored last week at Levante (2/1 anytime).

Sandro (10/11 anytime), if he gets more game time, looks a little sharper in front of goal than Munir (4/5 anytime) right now which is worth noting.

Atlético [3rd] v Sevilla [1st] – Saturday 7pm

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Recently this has been a game where the Spanish league has, politely, asked all participants and management to check their holsters, knuckle-dusters, coshes and tasers in with the security guards at a desk outside each dressing room. To merely brand it ill-tempered would be like saying that the Clanton and Earp brothers didn’t turn out to be socially compatible and that the Campbell’s weren’t great neighbours to Clan MacDonald.

The last six games between the sides have been Football at the OK Corral. They’ve produced 37 bookings, nine red cards [six of which have been straight reds] and five penalties. Very nearly a card of one colour or other every eleven minutes. All bar one of the games have been under the control of Diego Simeone (below) and Unai Emery.

simeone_840

But a couple of the game’s bad boys have moved on – Medel, Diego Costa, Filipe Luis for example. More, when this weekend’s ref, Snr Gonzalez Gonzalez was last in charge of the fixture it was like the Peace Games and white doves were released over the stadium at the end.Right in the middle of this run of undisguised ill-feeling he managed to see the 90 minutes through with only six bookings – ie no reds, no penalties. Can this ref keep things calm again?

Rumours that he put bromide in the players’ tea pre-match are quite unconfirmed.

So, this weekend. Sevilla are joint top, two points ahead of Los Colchoneros and Simeone’s side have looked irregular in draws with Celta and Rayo plus that Champions League defeat in Athens. But beware. Over these six back-alley skirmishes there have been 18 goals only five of which were scored by Sevilla who’ve managed no better than two draws and four defeats.

Raul-Garcia-Atletico

Carlos Bacca has been Sevilla’s touchstone for big goals this season [and last] but he didn’t score in either meeting with Atleti last term and was subbed off both times. Is he ready for this intensity this time? Is the slight slackness which Atletico are showing [they went behind against Celta at home last week and then gifted a really stupid penalty for the equalizer] the sniff of an opportunity which the Colombian requires? He’s 12/5 to score anytime if so.

Atletico are still scoring almost all their goals from set plays [six out of seven in the league], the majority headers, so it’s still worth thinking about Raul Garcia (above, 9/4 anytime), Miranda (9/1 anytime) and Diego Godín (8/1 anytime) while for Sevilla, Stephane Mbia (11/1 anytime) just loves a big goal when he arrives late in the box.

Two significant returns. Diego Simeone’s back on the touchline after his ban … will that quieten down the feud or ratchet it up? and Mario ‘Don’t call me the Phantom of the Opera’ Mandzukic is available again thanks to his 65 gram carbon fibre mask to protect his badly fractured nose.

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Graham Hunter: No matter how ‘Liverpool-ised’ Madrid have become since 2009 they don’t like a good old fashioned English football aerial bombardment

The last time Madrid left Anfield they’d been run over so badly that every last man jack had Looney-tunes tyre-tracks up the front of their body and all over their faces.

As opposed to the previous time these two behemoths of European football had met, in a European final which was one of the dullest, achingly-slow elite matches you could wish to suffer, that 2009 Champions League tie was jam-packed full of daring, energy, power and unfettered attacking.

The 1984 European Cup final was one of the ultimate lessons in the means justifying the end.

Vicente del Bosque as a Real Madrid player

Mixing the velvet glove with the iron fist

When I was writing my book about the ‘Inside Story of La Roja’s Historic Treble’ I phoned Graeme Souness to talk about the role and skills of Madrid’s talented, creative central midfielder that day in Paris: one Vicente del Bosque.

He told me: “I looked back at that final a couple of months ago because Jamie Redknapp rang me to tell me it was on television. I realised, watching it after such a long time, that for players like del Bosque in Madrid’s midfield Liverpool must have been a nightmare to play against because we were already putting into practice many of the things which are in vogue now: pressing all over the pitch, full-backs pushed high up their touchline so that I stayed sitting in front of the two centre-backs protecting them. I see much of that as central to the success of Barcelona and Spain nowadays.”

At the time Graeme didn’t mention the modern Madrid, but he could have done.

In 1981 the club didn’t learn from Liverpool’s brand of football, didn’t understand that mixing the velvet glove with the iron fist was something which would still function as well in 2014 as it did when Bucksfizz were winning the Eurovision Song Contest.

In 2009 they did learn.

If you recall the Anfield ambush, Madrid were not only hammered 4-0, they couldn’t compete.

They couldn’t keep up mentally or physically: with each passing quarter of an hour the self-belief and stamina diminished to the point that the Reds, inspired and led by one of the great Stevie Gerrard performances, were shooting fish in a barrel.

If you are able to go back and luxuriate in the images, or if, as a Koppite, they are still seared on the brain, then just call up the bewildered looks on the faces of Raul, Heinze and Gago as they thought only about ‘what just happened?’, ‘how soon can this be over?’

Steven Gerrard v Real Madrid 2009

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Stevie wonder

I’ve spoken to Liverpool players from that night and their verdict is unanimous. They knew, in advance, that they’d be able to out-sprint, out-last, out-jump and out-muscle Madrid – the out-playing would follow as a natural consequence.

They already knew that Raul was no longer a real threat when the contest was hi-energy, that he epitomized the ‘faded greatness’ of the Madrid era.

The great difference in the ‘lessons’ which were nearly three decades apart is that Madrid assimilated and applied the latter one.
A strategy was adopted.

They wanted Jose Mourinho even then – Florentino Perez wanted to Liverpool-ise, or better still, to Chelsea-ise Madrid.

They wanted to modernize. To blend technique with intensity, power with pace, creativity with coruscating energy.

The coach that night was Juande Ramos who’d achieved just those things with Sevilla, who’d regularly put Madrid through the wringer using players like Luis Fabiano, Freddie Kanouté, Seydou Keita, Ivica Dragutinovic, Julio Baptista, and the late Antonio Puerta. Their 3-5 win at the Bernabéu in the Supercopa was the template. Power, height but oodles of technique.

Juande Ramos didn’t work out at Madrid but Sevilla, Chelsea and now Liverpool had shown the men in grey suits that they were gonna have to use some grey matter. To catch up.

Heinze and Cannavaro out. Raúl directly after.

Sequentially: Alonso, Arbeloa (both alumni of the Anfield ambush), Cristiano Ronaldo, Benzema, Garay, Angel di Maria in.

Ronaldo celebrates

Strength in numbers

You see the pattern? You see the influence? Height, power, grit, Premier League experience, intensity – all of them tick some or all of those boxes.

Then, one year later, Mourinho. Now Bale.

Height, power, stamina, aggression but, in due course, more weights in training, more gym work, faster paced, more direct football. The Spanish title, three straight Champions League semi finals and then, in Lisbon, La Decima.

There’s a line of cultural change which can be traced from Anfield in 2009 until now.

Painful and humiliating though the experience was.

A brand of thinking at the Bernabeu, particularly around their Valdebebas training centre, that the powerful mix of Spanish craft, technique and strategy when blended with the power, height, pace, commitment, stamina and directness of the Premier League was not only the way forward generally but a means of waging football ‘war’ on the prettier, possession based football at Barcelona.

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‘Madrid have it all’

Without pre-judging the result, the master-pupil roles have been reversed from 2009 until now.

Liverpool are patently in the process of trying to reestablish some of the Spanish football credo which they had in their very best years – brilliant, quick passing above all.

But Brendan Rodgers unsurprisingly told Guillem Balaque for AS newspaper this week: “Right now Madrid is a team which can perform at a high level the like of which I’ve not seen in years. They have it all. Great players, speed, technique, fantastic team spirit, experience and a marvellous coach. They play well in tight spaces and if you leave them big spaces on the pitch there’s no team in the world better at exploiting them. My view is that when you mix the technique of the Spanish and or Dutch with the British spirit then it’s very very hard to beat.”

But, to business. To play the first of the two games at Anfield is an advantage. To play Madrid when Bale is out, Ramos is out, Benzema and Varane are both just back from illness and Casillas is searching for confidence and match sharpness – all of this is helpful.

So is the fact that the Clásico is on the horizon.

Form, talent and impetus still suggests that between Ronaldo, James Rodríguez, Luka Modric and Toni Kroos the European Champions can score and return home without losing, quite likely win.

Raheem-Sterling

Sterling: the jewel in Liverpool’s crown

However, Martin Skrtel recently organised Slovakia to shock and humiliate Spain, his and Balotelli’s aerial ability directly correlate with the weakest point in Madrid’s armoury.

And then there’s Raheem Sterling.

The jewel in Liverpool’s crown.

I will put a wager of a nice bottle of wine that within a season or two Real Madrid will, literally, not be able to resist his particular charms.

He has everything that the Spanish club adore… and more. And, for the moment, the best thing he can do is torment Marcelo and get that ball into the middle.

No matter how anglified, no matter how Liverpool-ised Madrid have become since 2009 they don’t like a good old fashioned English football aerial bombardment. Tin hats on, everyone.

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Graham Hunter La Liga Preview: A potential 10/1 Real Madrid blank and goals all round between Barcelona and Valencia

Málaga v Real Madrid. Saturday 7pm

I’m sure that there are many who have a punt based on superstition, hunches – call it what you will. If you are one of that relentlessly intuitive band of gamblers then you’ll have a cheeky wee fiver on Real Madrid not scoring at Málaga on Saturday at 10/1.

Reason? Carlo Ancelotti’s team has won fifteen straight matches in La Liga, the Champions and Copa del Rey and in doing so they’ve equalled the all-time record throughout Real Madrid’s history.

It’s only happened twice before – under the great Miguel Muñoz in 1960/61 during the Di Stefano, Puskas, Gento era when Los Blancos won five straight European Cups, and under Jose Mourinho in 2011/12.

The Muñoz team had just been knocked out of ‘their’ European Cup by Barcelona and took it out on Liga opponents. Fifteen straight wins. Fifty seven goals in the process.

The Mourinho team ended their run via a 1-3 home defeat to Barça but prior to that won five Champions League matches and ten Liga matches on the trot. Hold on…. fifty seven goals in the process.

Carlo Ancelotti

THAT’s YOUR LOTTI: Will Real Madrid’s 15 game winning streak come to an end this Saturday? (pic: Inpho)

No, you’ll never believe it. Ancelotti’s fifteen wins on the bounce have yielded … go on, guess. Yes, fifty seven goals.

So if you believe in momentum and the power of a tremendously confident squad led by the irrepressible Cristiano Ronaldo then it’s money on Madrid to win at the Rosaleda and make all-time history.

But if you’re hung-up on signs and numerical patterns then Madrid have won their fifteen games, scored their 57 goals and .. that’s their lot.

A little more help you say? Málaga are sixth, close enough to the pack that if they’d won at Atlético at the weekend they’d have gone fourth equal. Madrid looked laboured for the first time in weeks while winning 1-0 at Basel midweek. Toni Kroos admits: “I’m tired” This should be their first firm test of playing without the injured Luka Modric against a team which knows how to stretch their midfield if they aren’t positionally shrewd. However perhaps the most persuasive factor is that Málaga can’t really afford to have one, never mind three, influential players missing. Amrabat and Juanmi [goals disappearing out the window] are both out injured while in midfield their natty little organiser, Camacho, is suspended.

Last week’s red for Samuel García has been rescinded … but is that really enough to balance out the losses? No, probably
not. Perm from Bale, Ronaldo and Isco, returning to his home ground, to see Madrid through.

PS, for anyone who hasn’t lumped on the league title yet each of the previous 15 game winning runs ended with Madrid winning the title. Hint, hint.

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Atlético v Deportivo La Coruña. Sunday 11am

These midday kick-offs are a relative novelty in Spain – a football nation just waking up to the fact that there may, just may, be a reason why the Premier League, with less skill and flair, is economically dominant around the world. Now, key markets [Asia, the Gulf] will watch this game in their afternoon rather than [via Spain’s horrible 9pm Sunday kick-off] in the middle of the night.

There’s a knack to playing these early matches and that’s for Atlético that’s to eat Depo for breakfast.

The champions haven’t lost at home for 26 games [twenty wins, six draws] and it’s over a decade since Depo last took a point at the Calderón on a day when Diego Simeone was on the bench, but as a 75th minute sub rather than as boss.

Toché

Also on the same bench that day was Toché – now 31, now playing for Depo and currently their equal top scorer with two. Which tells you just about all that’s needed. Depo have four goals on the road [six games] and twelve all season. Meanwhile during Atlético’s last seven home games they’ve won the lot, scored 23 times and looked increasingly powerful. During that run Mandzukic has five, Griezmann four, Raúl García three, Koke two and Godín two. Cholo Simeone’s reign has been defined by his team winning games like this when Madrid and Barcelona are away from home and there’s just the sniff of an opportunity to close the gap at the top. Take your pick [Griezmann], but back the champs.

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Valencia v Barcelona. Sunday 8pm

There’s no getting around the fact that, traditionally, this is Apache territory for Barça. Across their decorated history they’ve lost to Valencia at the Mestalla in: the 1961 Inter City Fairs Cup final first leg 6-2; the 1980 Cup Winners Cup quarter final first leg 4-3; the 1999 Spanish Supercup second leg 1-0; the 2000 Champions League Semi Final first leg 4-1, the 2008 Copa Del Rey semi final 3-2. Major defeats. But it was nearly as seismic last season at the Camp Nou when Valencia won 3-2 – three points which if Barcelona had taken, it now transpires, they’d have won the title.

The deduction is that despite Barcelona’s nine goals in their last two games and Valencia’s derby defeat to Levante last week there’s no way that an away win is a ‘gimme’.

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Luis Enrique’s team appear to have found their best form of the season, or at least their most clinical finishing. Turgid in the first half against Sevilla last week they erupted via Leo Messi’s record-breaking second half and then trampled all over APOEL in Cyprus. But their manager has a disturbing unwillingness to play the same XI consistently, often changing the midfield and back four.

For Barça two key figures are Gerard Piqué and Messi. The latter has two hat tricks in two matches and appears both electric-quick and happy in his football. The former has put together three games, for Spain v Germany, and the last two club wins, where he’s played with confidence, form and passed the ball superbly.

Perhaps for Valencia it’s Diego Alves and Álvaro ‘the Beast’ Negredo. The keeper reserves his very best form for Barça – I’ve seen him make umpteen indescribably good saves in games where he stands between the Catalans and a humiliation for his side. Negredo scored his last goal in Spanish football against Barcelona [2-0 ahead, 3-2 defeat with Sevilla] and knocked the Blaugrana out of the cup with a goal and an assist for the Andalucians in 2010.

The most intriguing game of the weekend, both teams will score, Negredo will get off the mark, Messi will get another couple, Valencia have the capacity to win but Barcelona’s extraordinary goal power suggests they’ll do no worse than a score draw and quite possibly win 3-2.

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Sevilla v Granada. Sunday 4pm

The theme here is: ‘define crisis?’. After their defeat in Holland to Feyenoord on Thursday Sevilla, by their demanding standards, feel like they are in free-fall. They’ve won just once in five matches, tumbling from top equal with Barcelona on Matchday 9, to fifth and seven points off leaders Madrid today. In the Europa League if they lose their last group game [at home] to HNK Rijeka the holders will be eliminated.

At which point Granada can assume their Monty Python ‘Four Yorkshiremen’ personality and sneer: ‘That’s nothing! You’ve got it easy … we’d lick the sweat off a tramp’s socks to have it that good’.

Joaquín Caparrós’ team has scored just twice since September and, in fact, seven la Liga players have scored more than Granada’s entire squad this season. No, not just Messi and Ronaldo but guys like Celta’s Larrivey and Sunday afternoon’s threat – Carlos Bacca.

Estadio Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan

To add to the woes both Riki and Rochina are out injured, further damaging Caparrós’ ability to return to the club he did so much to ‘grow’, and register a needed win. Sevilla have to marshall energy quickly after their defeat in Rotterdam.

Granada’s main problem is their striker El-Arabi who hit twenty goals over the previous two seasons but just one this. Perhaps it’s his moment? For Sevilla Kevin Gameiro’s return isn’t yet yielding the goals he’s due so the responsibility falls squarely on Bacca.

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Graham Hunter: How a swashbuckling Real Madrid could bag you a 10/3 winner, plus an 18/1 draw double in this weekend’s La Liga preview

Real Madrid v Espanyol – Saturday, 3pm

Madrid are a bit like those of us who say: ‘I’m not a morning person’. Bleary, sluggish – but capable of erupting into a blitzkrieg of action after a wee coffee. The Serena Williams of the football world. Yeah?

At the beginning of the season they were a bit Rip Van Winkle in defeats to Atlético and Real Sociedad, looking short on turbo-power. Lacking a cutting edge. Carlo Ancelotti warned then that these effects were temporary, that his fitness work would click and that the players would impose their class. So it proved. They won five straight in the league hitting 25 goals.

Right now they are suffering similar effects to the early season torpor. The physical and mental demands of setting a record of 22 straight wins, the post Christmas-break sluggishness – these factors affected the last two defeats, 2-1 to Valencia and 2-0 to Atlético in La Copa.

The question is: will that spark return this afternoon?

Carlo Ancelotti

Twice since 2008 Espanyol have popped up with a 2-2 draw at the Bernabéu but generally they are punchbags in this fixture.

Their coach, Sergio González, was co-author of one of the biggest shocks at this stadium, when Deportivo La Coruña won the Copa Del Rey at the Bernabéu beating Real Madrid on the day of their 100th birthday back in 2002. In fact he scored. A repeat would be epic – but also an epic shock.

Sergio García is, by a distance, Espanyol’s best player – European Championship winner with Spain in 2008. Barça-trained as a kid and Catalan to the core he’d presumably fancy augmenting his record of only having scored twice against Los Blancos and not having won once in 15 attempts. Sergio Ramos is rested, Rafa Varane, an out-of-reach Manchester United target, will partner Pepe in defence while Álvaro Arbeloa will keep his place at right back as Carvajal is suspended.

El Blackoutico! Money-Back if there's a goal inside 15 minutes of Real Madrid v Barcelona

Perhaps the most tempting factor is that Cristiano Ronaldo is going to collect another Ballon D’Or trophy on Monday night and, showman that he is, you’d expect him to take personal responsibility for a win with the flurry of goals his game has been lacking for the last month. Madrid to win by a two goal margin (at 10/3), Ronaldo (2/1 to score first) and Varane (15/2 anytime) on the scoresheet. 

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Malaga v Villarreal – Saturday, 5pm

Two happy stories bump heads. Málaga thought they had won the lottery but it all went a bit Viv Nicholson for them as the money which Al Thani promised started to run dry, salaries weren’t paid and a Uefa ban came thumping down on them. The crash and burn effect of such run-ins with sudden wealth can be horrific but, somehow, the seaside club has not only taken the body blow in its stride … Málaga are damn impressive.

Their youth academy has produced them a clutch of terrific young talents, players who not only wear the shirt with extra pride but who have clear, mercurial talent with which the local fans passionately identify – hence the terrific attendances at the Rosaleda. [La Rosaleda holds 30,000 and the average crowd this season is over 25,000]

Samuel García, Samu Castilejo, Juanpi, Portillo Juanmi and Sergi Darder are all 24 or under and have all spent healthy amounts of time in Málaga’s own youth system. Roque Santa Cruz has moved on so now there’s an emphasis on Nordin Amrabat turning his marauding form into goals … and avoiding injury a bit more.

Villarreal’s verve has been such a refreshing presence in La Liga that their bouncebackability after one season demoted was mega-welcome. Last year was consolidation, this season Marcelino has them playing terrifically attractive football where Denis Cheryshev, Bruno and Luciano Vietto stand out.

  • The Yellow Submarine have scored in every single one of the 19 games they’ve played since losing 0-2 to Madrid in late September. They have scored in all but one of their 14 away matches this season and Villarreal have fifteen different scorers in all competitions. Málaga have scored in each of their last 14 matches so you might like a ‘both teams to score’ flutter at 4/5

Villarreal’s cavalier attitude cost them a win at Elche last week when from 2-0 up they drew 2-2 so perhaps their heavy programme [eight Europa League matches plus league and cup] is taking a toll. But back them to do no worse than a point in a score draw at 10/3, possibly an away win at 6/4.

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Celta v Valencia – Saturday, 7pm

Celta plays good football even though it hasn’t been going well for them over recent matches. ‘They are dynamic, they keep the ball well, they make chances – current results don’t reflect Celta’s real personality’.

Never truer words from Valencia coach Nuno Espirito Santo.

Celta were good enough to beat Real Madrid at the dog-end of last season, draw at Atlético in September then record their first away win against Barcelona as ‘recently’ as November. After which, you’d guess, their coach Eduardo ‘Toto’ Berizzo must have dropped a consignment of mirrors.

Injuries, errors, bad luck and total confusion amongst his players about what those posts and nets are actually for – that’s been Celta since the win at the Camp Nou.

  • They are 665 minutes without a league goal. Sixty seconds more and there might be a numerical clue about what’s going on.

Just to torture Toto a bit more Celta remembered how to score in the Copa del Rey, seven in the last thee matches, but completely forgot how to defend in the midweek Cup tie against Athletic Bilbao which they lost 4-2 at home.

Joaquin Larrivey, leading scorer, is still banned as a result of mistaken identity [ref hears insult, ref waves red card, striker suspended for four games despite being innocent party] but at least Nolito is back in the squad after injury.

Two defenders, Cabral and Planas are absent so, as such, Valencia have a chance of maintaining their push for glory with an away win.

But their personality is as changeable as Scottish weather. They thumped champions Atlético in October, then went and waved the white flag at struggling Deportivo in the next game, losing 3-0. They gave Barcelona a chasing one week then barely scrambled a draw at Granada next time out. And Los Che dismantled Rayo in the league on December 13, 3-0, but three days later only drew 4-4 at home against the same side.

Valencia lost in Vigo last season, Charles scoring twice and he is worth a look again having hit the net against Athletic in midweek (15/8 anytime). Álvaro Negredo (23/10 anytime) doesn’t mind a goal against Celta, three in two, and his two goals in twelves matches since signing for Valencia don’t fully reflect his effort, chances or form . Score draw at 16/5 anyone?

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Barcelona v Atletico – Sunday, 8pm

The key is Messi. No change there I hear you say. Fine, but consider this.

  • Leo Messi’s goal record against Atlético is 17 in 20 matches – not too shabby.

Now factor in the extra data.

  • It’s seven games since Messi scored against Los Rojiblancos, across two long years.

Do the arithmetic. He treated Atleti like rag-dolls before – scoring 17 times in 13 matches. Since Diego Simeone really got hold of his squad there’s been a total Messi drought.

Correspondingly, Barcelona are now six games without a win against the current Spanish champions – one defeat and five draws. Atleti have got their number and that number is 10. The one on Messi’s back.

Lionel Messi training Argentina

Barcelona are still, theoretically, competitive in this league because of their home form. Away from home they have become limper than a wet dish-rag. In the league at the Camp Nou they are averaging nearly four goals per game but here’s the key – Messi has scored 13 of his 15 Liga goals at the Camp Nou. If Atleti manage to clamp him with their defensive congestion charge then they’ve a chance of a draw or better.

If Messi, as electric and ‘involved’ as at any time this season when orchestrating the 5-0 Copa win over Elche on Thursday, wriggles free then Barça should win and strike a huge blow against the tidal wave of ‘crisis’ headlines which have engulfed them.

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Little vignettes proliferate across this game. Luis Suárez against his international team-mate Diego Godín should be herculean. Mario Mandzukic’s last visit to the Camp Nou didn’t yield a goal but did give a 3-0 win for his Bayern side – the Croat versus Gerard Piqué will be worth admission money. Ivan Rakitic has three goals in ten matches against Atleti which doesn’t make him prolific but it’s as many as he’s scored against any opposition in his career and it was against Simeone’s team he incurred one of only two red cards in his career. Xavi’s absence may mean the Croat playmaker joins Busquets and Iniesta in the midfield three. Finally, Antoine Griezmann. Again. Opened his account against Levante last week, netting twice having never scored against them previously. He has two goals in his last two meetings with Barça but hasn’t ever scored at the Camp Nou. Take your pick. But the win/lose equation centres on Messi.

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Graham Hunter: Here’s how Diego Simeone has transformed Atletico Madrid from whipping boys to sadists

There was a time when this would have been a Fifty Shades Of Grey fixture.

Barça v Atlético, home or away, began to get a bit sado-masochistic.

The Catalans, generally, imposing the pain, the Madrileños accepting the humilation. Both kept turning up for more.

While Barça didn’t ALWAYS win, Atlético’s ten matches with the Blaugrana prior to Diego Simeone taking over saw them concede 36 times.

An appalling figure, more pertinent to primary school football.

Then, get this, when the now guru-figure of Simeone did take over the first three results were all defeats and cost another eight goals.

Thirteen games, three wins, 44 conceded.

Since Barcelona last won this fixture there have been five meetings between the sides and Los Colchoneros have conceded just twice in that time.

From allowing nearly 3.4 goals per game to 0.4 a match. That ain’t bad.

Filter out the games at the Calderón and it was much, much more embarrassing. Prior to this season, Atlético lost 26 goals in six visits to the Camp Nou, the very stadium in which the league leaders require either a draw or a win to give them their first Spanish championship for 18 years.

They were shipping in four a game. Crazy

Eto for Barca v Atletico

The thing which helps establish beyond any doubt who is the most important man at Atletico, is the lineup from Los Colchoneros’ last defeat at the Camp Nou. In December 2012 Atleti took the lead against Barcelona. The XI which needed to defend that 0-1 lead for 59 minutes was: Courtois, Juanfran, Miranda, Godín, Filipe Lluis: Turan, Mario Súarez, Gabi, Koke: Falcao, Diego Costa.

It’s perfectly feasible that ten of those men take the pitch in Simeone’s starting XI on Saturday evening … and, dammit, you’d say that the presence of goal-matchine Falcao probably makes that a stronger side than the coach has at this disposal this weekend.

Fifty nine minutes later, however, they’d been trounced 4-1.

The previous Barça v Atleti result was 5-0. On that night the visitors fielded Courtois, Godín, Miranda, Mario Súarez, Tiago, Gabi and Diego – on the bench were Filipe Luis, Juanfran, Adrián and Arda.

Again, eleven players who might all be under the microscope as Spain’s Liga has it’s most high profile, most tense finale in history.

Simeone has taken all the same guys, added very little in terms of new talent, and completely transformed them from masochists to sadists.

Obviously, all this partly indicates how much Barcelona’s intensity, cutting edge, speed of play and individual brilliance has declined over the last ten months.

Leo Messi used to find scoring goals against Atlético, even when they had a knockout keeper like Courtois, easier than shooting goldfish in a barrel.

He’s now six meetings, and counting, without a goal or an assist against Los Rojiblancos.

Lionel Messi training Argentina

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Above all, those previous stats tell most about Simeone.

Yes, he’s working the team harder week in week out in training. Those who aren’t inspired by him are intimidated by him.

He demands that everyone train with at least as much, if not more, passion and appetite than they actually play with.

In that sense, if not in the philosophy of how games should be play, he’s Pep Guardiola’s brother from another mother.

But to take a group of men who were habitually used to being thrashed within an inch of their life (none of whom were ex public schoolboys) and to turn them into a stubborn, feisty, streetwise Dirty Dozen, as used to thwarting Barcelona as they were once beaten before the first whistle, is one hell of an achievement.

He’s succeeded in that most difficult of tasks – changing the psychology of an entire group. Unifying levels of hunger and confidence. Improving them

The ‘Cup Final’ mentality…

Twice in the last two seasons Simeone, evidently a terrific svengali figure for whom players will give ‘extra’ when they think they are empty and ready to punch the clock, has brought a winning ‘cup final’ end of term performance out of his troops.

Let’s call the Uefa Europa league final of 2012 and the Copa del Rey final of 2013 the direct equivalent of this ‘Cup Final’ which awaits Atleti on Saturday in Barcelona.

In 2012 Atleti weren’t quite supposed to be meat and drink for Athletic Club but the Basques’ performances that season, particularly in hammering Manchester United, indicated that they should have been properly threatening in the all-Spanish final.

Instead, Simeone’s Atleti were better from start to finish and in every possible department. They were fitter, they enjoyed the occasion more, they worked harder, they were cleverer and more effective – they completely bossed it.

A year later, again in a last-game-of-the-season-showdown, Atleti showed an utterly different characteristic. They fought and clawed to stay level with Real Madrid in the Copa Final and were grateful to Courtois for quite heroically keeping them in the contest.

They spent most of the night on the ropes but, via Miranda, they were still gutsy enough to produce the KO punch the instant that the opportunity presented itself.

Diego Simeone wiki edit

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Simeone has taught them many things, he’s added some tactical finesse – but his greatest achievement has been psychological.

From a squad happy enough to coast along in third or fourth position and happy enough not to wave a guillotine blade at Spain’s ancien regime of Real Madrid and Barcelona, the Argentine has turned them into a bunch of bloodthirsty Robespierres.

Nerves at the finish line?

So, from my perspective, the big question to be asked before Saturday evening’s kick off is how much psychological damage has been done by Atleti losing five of the last six points at what should have been a ‘Vive La Revolution!’ moment of the season?

The loss at Levante was understandable enough. Having won at Chelsea and suffered the emotional tsunami of that experience the City of Valencia stadium was a horrible place to have to go and carve out a result.

But there was a general expectation that the champions-elect would swamp Málaga and there was a backwash of disappointment and deflation to discover, post that 1-1 draw last weekend that a single goal would have won them the title given Barcelona’s stalemate at Elche.

I watched the sagging shoulders, the dull, ‘dammit!!’ faces, and the suddenly weary bodies at the end of that Málaga draw, players, Simeone, technical staff and fans – and I thought that there’d been a major over-reaction

For a club so in charge of its emotions and psychology all season I thought that there was a glimpse of self doubt and a lack of ‘know-now’ in terms of that last push to get over the line.

From a bunch of guys who reckoned that a) the title would be won before going to the Camp Nou or b) that if they had to go and win they would and could, it felt as if Atleti had allowed self-doubt to corrode their previously robust confidence.

This should be treatable. A good, thorough working week on the Majadahonda training ground, individual tuition, perhaps a wee night out – there has been sufficient time since the Málaga draw to iron out and psychological kinks. You’d think, at least.

A further question is whether, improbable though it seems, Simeone has having a few flutters. Warrior, yes. Successful, yes. Invincible – no.

It’s vital that, should Atleti go one nil down (Barcelona haven’t taken the lead against these rivals for seven matches, since February 2012) they don’t suddenly get those ‘novice’ nerves which so often prevent ‘underdogs’ from fulfilling their vaunted potential.

Advantage Atletico?

Other than the body language last week, the omens are red and white. Not only do two of the three possible results win Atleti the title they’ve had significantly the better of things this season.

Atleti have the only win of the five games between the sides this term, Atleti have produced three different scorers and two different assist-givers against Barcelona since August.

Barcelona’s only scorer v Simeone’s mob this season, Neymar, won’t start and, realistically, shouldn’t even play at this stage of his injury rehab.

Atleti, at a time when Barcelona continue to look awfully ragged at the back without Piqué, Puyol or Valdés, keep on producing some lovely set plays – and scoring from them. Simeone’s guys at the masters of transferring hard work and planning from the training ground to the battlefield.

Then there’s the final point in terms of psychology. You’d have to forgive the boys in red and white IF they, consciously or otherwise, felt that their final against Real Madrid a week on Saturday is more important.

You’d forgive them if they decided to play speculatively (for a draw) at the Camp Nou and then, having reserved something, go ‘all-out’ in Lisbon against Real Madrid.

You wold forgive them, but would Barça? Tata Martino’s side has been patchy and unreliable due to oscillating form this season – but they’ve shown, to the cost of Madrid, Man City, Ajax, Milan and Villarreal, that when they really want to .. they can.

Mateu Lahoz, easily Spain’s best and most diligent ref, will be in charge. He MAY have a style which allows a Simeone-esque side more liberty with physical play but that’s because he likes the game to flow, not because he promotes brutality.

Barcelona used to be the perfect side to profit from Lahoz – quicker and brighter in how they reacted when an incident looked like a foul but the ref waved play-on.

He gives a premium to those who are quick, talented, who concentrate and love the ‘advantage’ rule.

Even though they’ve been too sluggish in every respect, recently, to draw benefit from his style, Barcelona have nonetheless never lost with Lahoz in charge

One more thought about Barça. They have the psychological impact of all these ‘farewells’ at the Camp Nou. From Tito’s unfair, untimely death through to Victor Valdés slinking away after a private goodbye to this team mates and Carles Puyol retreating with all guns blazing.

Full military honours there.

Valdes and Puyol with European Cup

Do intangibles exist? Can Barcelona, slightly patched together where players’ form, fitness and energy levels are concerned, draw some sort of invincible emotional energy from the facts that Puyol and Valdés are going and Tito has gone forever?

More questions than answers. But a clear cut promise. IF Simeone has done his restorative psychology well, (as well as he’s managed with his squad all season) then Atleti will get their draw and their title.

If he hasn’t, then I suspect that this might prove to be a more vulnerable Atlético than Barcelona have faced in the previous handful of matches this season.

Game on.

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Graham Hunter: Why Real Madrid may lose the battle but win the war with Bayern Munich

Real Madrid’s record in Germany is just so atrocious that you’d forgive the hoteliers, bar owners and resterauteurs in Lisbon for getting ahead of the game and laying in stocks of Deutsche phrase-books, lagoons of lager and a herd of sausage meat.

Big spending, bouncy, brash, hungry and thirsty Bavarians are coming to town. Right?

But dispensing with the lies and damn lies and heading straight for statistics there’s at least some data to suggest that the reigning European champions have a chunky task on their hands tonight (7.45pm).

While Los Blancos have lost five and drawn only one of their last six visits to Munich every single one of those last six results (a quintet of 2-1′s and a 1-1 draw) would serve to qualify Madrid for the final if it were reproduced this evening.

The last time Madrid failed to score in Bavaria one of the main protagonists of the war of words around last week’s tie, Franz Beckenbauer, was wearing short trousers and boots and Los Blancos’ midfield play was being run by a certain tall, skinny Vicente Del Bosque. (April, 1976, if you feel the need to know).

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Franz Beckenbaeur 840

More heat than light

The heat generated over the first leg had a lot to do with tactics, philosophy, internal warring, possession and ‘sterility’.

Within Spain, certainly within the Santiago Bernabéu there was no frothing at the mouth about the fact that the nine time European champions decided, in advance, not to compete for possession and chose a strategy of counter-attack football.

Some of the Bayern players, Thomas Müller in particular, scoffed a little at the tactic – amazed that it flew so brazenly in the face of Madrid’s history, and in the knowledge that it would be unforgiveable at Bayern.

The ‘row’ factor centred on just that Bavarian philosophy. They are, by nature, a ‘sturm und drang‘ club – conflict, desire, antagonism, stress, hunger, pressure.

They play intelligent football, talented football – but not percentage football.

If they were a driver they’d be Ayrton Senna, if they were a flavour they’d be tabasco. If they were music they’d be AC/DC.

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Pep Guardiola840

On the (counter) attack

Guardiola was criticised (again) by Beckenbauer. L’Equipe splashed it’s next edition with the headline ‘Real Politik’ stating that Bayern had been taught a lesson in ‘real’ life and efficacy.

Guardiola’s possession football was mocked.

I thought that there was a dreadful, ill informed reaction to how Bayern played to the exclusion of proper analysis of what actually happened in the first leg – ie how close the German champions were to doing something special.

However, I think there has also been some confusion emanating from the first leg about Real Madrid and what brand of football they espouse.

Three of the Champions League semi-final teams last week played on the counter attack. But I’d argue that there was a clear difference between what Real Madrid chose to do and Chelsea’s (understandable) parking of the bus at the Calderon.

Madrid don’t revoke possession – it’s just that they are extremely effective with what they have.

ronaldo_freekick

You’re very Possessive

Take their Champions League record this season as proof.

Away to Copenhagen they won 2-0 (with 59% possession). A home to Galatasaray they won 4-1 (50%). A way to Juve they drew 2-2 (52%). At home to Juve they won 2-1 (52%). At home to Copenhagen they won 4-0 (58%). Away to Galatasaray they won 6-1 (50%).

In the first knock-out round they beat Schalke 6-1 away (57%) and at home 3-1 (55%). Then they beat Dortmund in the first quarter final 3-0 (58%) and lost to them away 2-0 (49%).

They compete for the ball, they don’t sit and speculate, waiting on the Mourinho doctrine that the more the other side has possession the more likely it is they’ll make a mistake.

But Madrid are quite confident that if they have somewhere near a fair share of the ball then they’ll outscore the opposition – sometimes heavily.

They are startlingly effective as evidenced by their 12 goals away to Galatasaray and Schalke on an average 53.5% possession shows.

It’s part of the reason that Guardiola, in the build up to this second leg, has been emphasising that he expects to require three goals from his men in order to go through.

The case for the defence

Instinct tells me that it’s worth looking at Madrid’s two central defenders.

During the three previous semi finals which Los Blancos have reached consecutively Pepe, for all his football ability, has been a ‘sleeper’.

Sent off in the first (home) leg against Barcelona – Leo Messi’s two goals followed instantly.

Two years ago against Bayern he foolishly and needlessly gave away the penalty from which Arjen Robben squared the tie at 3-3 in the second leg.

Last season he was, utterly ruthlessly, exposed by Marko Reus and Robert Lewandowski. The striker gave Pepe a lesson in clinical penalty box football and should have sent him a bouquet of flowers and an apology for humiliation when the dust settled.

Can he amend that besmirched record tonight?

Then there’s Ramos.

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Ramos 840

Wounded pride

Two seasons ago he was mocked, mercilessly, for his crucial penalty miss, skied over the bar, at the decisive moment in the shoot-out to reach the final at the Allianz Arena.

He was so furious, this Errol Flynn footballer, at the cruelty of the reception to that moment (people portrayed his shot hitting Felix Baumgartner’s head as he was preparing to jump out of Red Bull Stratos and the video went viral) that he decided to even the score by ‘Panenka-chipping’ the Portugal keeper in the European Championship semi final during 2012.

On Saturday, he was rampaging forward and tried to get on the end of two Ronaldo crosses against Osasuna before finally heading home on the hour.

He’s on the verge of missing the final, should they qualify, given that he’s on a booking. But his attitude and actions were those of a man (in my knowledge of him) who’s still got a thorn in his side.

Weakness or strength – the rampaging, Boys-Own, ‘I can do anything if I try’ attitude which makes Ramos such an attractive footballer to watch? (Albeit with Real Madrid’s record red card total)

You decide. All I know is that I’ll be riveted to the game.

Off the fence

The odds and the sane, calm part of my brain says: Bayern, at home, only one goal to overcome – they HAVE to do it.

The Sergio Ramos, hot-blooded, Celtic part of my brain (the 95% part) says … it’s Madrid to go through on a 2-2 aggregate scoreline.

La Decima beckons?

  • For Madrid to go through on aggregate 2-2 means they get beaten 2-1 tonight by Munich @ 7/1.
  • Ramos is 25/1 to score the first goal or 8/1 to score at anytime over the 90 minutes tonight.

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Graham Hunter: Real Madrid + Bayern Munich = Goals. Guaranteed!!

If the meeting of the irresistible force and the immoveable object in Madrid last night proved too much for your taste and you crave some adrenalin then the second Champions League semi final on consecutive nights in the Spanish capital may prove much less resistable.

Not only is Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich one of the world’s great grudge match, the two clubs have generally disliked and envied each other for generations, the 20 previous meetings between the Spanish and Bavarian royalty have produced 59 goals

There has never yet been a 0-0 and you’ll be damn lucky, watching this type of contest, if there’s no red card, a fan punching the referee or a player attacking an opposition number sufficiently wantonly to earn a 5 year band from European football.

All of which is readily discoverable if you look back at the knuckle-duster bust-ups in which the two clubs have indulged since Bayern first tipped Vicente del Bosque, Gunter Netzer and Paul Breitner out of the European Cup semi final (Ps Amancio was red carded) back in 1976.

A Long Bern-ing Rivalry

It was the club’s first meeting and since then Bayern have noticeably had the upper hand.

They’ve won 11 of the twenty matches, they’ve eliminated Los Blancos five out of the six times they’ve met at this semi final stage – the last time via penalties, back in 2012 with the contest tied at 3-3.

This is a roller coaster for which you’ll need a seat-belt.

Guardiola_Ancelotti_stats

Then there’s the two managers – each a debutant in this fixture, but neither man in any way inexperienced in terms of their rivals tonight.

Though Pep Guardiola has never coached a team against Real Madrid apart from his native FC Barcelona his record at the Bernabéu makes remarkable reading – 5 wins and 2 draws. No defeats.

In fact the last time Madrid lost at home in the Champions League it was to Guardiola’s Barcelona back in April 2011 – a week after winning the Copa del Rey final against Barcelona at the Mestalla. Spooky?

As for the longer-in-the-tooth Carlo Ancelotti he’s never lost to Bayern – four wins and two draws while he was coach of AC Milan.

So, what gives tonight?

Well, while Pep Guardiola has been making ‘this tie comes at the wrong time for us when we’ve lost a bit of cutting edge’ noises and generally playing possum the fact appears to be that he thinks his team is more athletic and can ‘hassle’ Madrid into mistakes.

To Xab’ And To Hold

Having taken a little longer than expected to fully recover from the groin surgery he underwent last summer because of a subsequent metatarsal injury, Xabi Alonso’s return to Ancelotti’s team has been fundamental.

It has given balance and order to midfield, it has protected the back four and it has allowed the Italian to deploy a 4-3-3 formation – which has been an enormous success.

Lately, however, it has felt as though the 32 year old packing in 36 games since late October has been a demanding schedule.

xabialonso

His reading of the game is as good as ever, his use of the ball exemplary but there’s been the feeling that he’s positioning himself a few metres deeper than usual as if to anticipate that opponents may try to produce driving runs away from him and he’s compensating just by remaining a little deep.

From Guardiola’s training session on Monday (remember Guardiola played that very position throughout his career) there could be heard the shouts to his players: “Don’t leave Alonso or Ronaldo alone for a minute – get on them all the time”

Pep-er Casillas Early On

The Catalan was also insistent that his players, particularly Kroos, Martinez, Ribery, Müller and Robben, break the normal team orders (which are to favour passing to a better-placed team mate over shooting) and strike at goal early and regularly.

casillas_robben

It isn’t a great deductive leap that he is questioning whether Iker Casillas, who has only been playing the Cup competitions and not the League campaign, might be a little rusty if he’s repeatedly asked to save testing shots swerving at him from distance?

While Madrid have won the last four home matches against Bayern they’ve only historically been able to eliminate their bête noir IF they don’t concede at home.
Other than that their record in Germany is, literally, appalling and they’ve lost four of the five semi finals of this competition they’ve competed against the Bavarians.

For the home side everything hinges not only on whether Ronaldo and Bale start, the former nearly recovered from hamstring problems the latter suffering badly from flu this week, but on whether they can perform at peak.

With them Madrid have tremendous speed on the counter, the power of two quite different free kick takers, danger from long range shots, real aerial threat and the importance of a tremendous partnership which is developing between the two players.

ronaldo_freekick

Two years ago Madrid showed, albeit in an aggregate defeat, that they are capable of playing at a tempo which the Germans rarely face and which, until Pepe gave away a needless penalty, looked like sending them through to the final.

Tonight the keys for Ancelotti’s side are: can he give the BBC (Bale, Benzema Cristiano) license to be creative; can his team keep a clean sheet and can they produce that roaring tempo which, every so often, makes the Bernabéu a daunting place for any opponent?

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Graham Hunter on how Atletico Madrid are like Chelsea of old, but why Jose Mourinho can take advantage of small margins

Atlético Madrid vs Chelsea, Champions League semi-final (Tuesday, April 22, 19.45)

The neatest way to summarize what Jose Mourinho and Co face in Madrid tonight is that Chelsea are about to endure the most unsettling prospect of facing ‘themselves’.

Atletico are Chelsea of April 2005. Thibaut Courtois is Petr Cech, Diego Costa is Didier Drogba and above all Diego Simeone is Mourinho at his very best.

Little wonder under-pressure Jose wants to repatriate Courtois next season and is well on his way to signing Diego Costa.

diego simeone, atletico madrid manager

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Similarities with Chelsea 2005

Back in 2005 the Blues were horribly difficult to defeat and reached this semi-final stage by defeating both Porto and FC Barcelona – just as Atleti have done this season. But the greater similarities are in attitude, system, work ethic, all-for-one-and-one-for-all spirit.

Simeone is a street-tough man who isn’t afraid to admit he relies on his understanding of the Zodiac and horoscopes as part of his man-management techniques

‘Sanitarians need a lot of affection, but if you’re born under Scorpio you respond better to a bit of tough love. My star sign is Taurus – we can be a bit difficult to deal with. We’ll give you our heart and soul but only if you treat us well. If you try to force us to do something against our will, watch out.’

Tease him if you dare

Just like Mourinho used to have the ultimate capacity to achieve, Simeone has brought all his players, reserves too, to the boil at the same time – and kept them simmering all season. It’s one hell of a trick.

Champions League semi finals, Chelsea v Atletico via Graphic News

Simeone’s promise to his president

You could compare him to both Pep Guardiola and Mourinho for his absolute intensity – every minute of every working day. And in his spare time. He’ll often go to the cinema, catch the first 15 minutes but then become utterly overtaken by some new thought on training, or a rival, or the last match and need to walk out so that he can make notes.

Friends and family have tired of asking him whether he enjoyed a television programme, a movie or a concert. Usually he’ll have taken in about five per cent of what they have – because his restless football mind won’t let him alone.

Three trophies ago he took over with Atletico sliding down the table and able to peer over their shoulder at the relegation zone. He told his new president:

‘I’m going to make it unpleasant to play us, teams are going to suffer’.

He did. And they have

To this day his motto is: ‘If your car isn’t quite top notch then you have to find a way to puncture the other guy’s tyres so that you can keep up with him.’

John Terry and Frank Lampard 14/5/2006 00179078

What Terry and Lampard think…

When I spoke to John Terry and Frank Lampard (above in 2006) at Cobham last week and asked them about this tie each man pointed out that the general impression of Chelsea having had an extremely favourable draw in avoiding Real Madrid and Bayern didn’t tally with their views of the Spanish league leaders.

Each of them watches Spanish football and while each is respectful of the team it’s also Diego Simeone’s electric buzz of energy, animation and activity on the touchline which has impressed them.

My words, not theirs, but I think they see a version of Mourinho – just younger and as hungry as the Portuguese was back then.

For those who are trying to size up this match it’s important to point out that often Atletico’s margins are the smallest. Lots of 1-0 and 2-1 wins. An indication of rigour, but also an indication that if Chelsea can ‘do a job’ on them then taking a draw or a one-goal win back to London isn’t utterly impossible.

Diego Costa

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More to Atleti than Costa

However, there’s a great deal to say that’s pro-Atletico. In all 23 Liga and Champions League games at the Calderon this season they’ve conceded just 10 times.

Notwithstanding the eye-catching nature of Courtois’ and Costa’s work this is a team – genuinely a terrific blend of youth, experience, pace, positional play, mental toughness. Will to win.

  • For example, although the headline figure is that Costa (above), potentially Spain’s starting World Cup No9, has 35 goals this season it’s important to note than in Atletico’s last 12 games (since their last defeat) there have been nine different scorers – Costa, Villa, Koke, Raúl Garcia, Gabi, Diego, Godín, Arda Turan and Miranda.
  • In those same games there have been nine individual goal-assist producers – Villa, Filipe Luis, Juanfran, Gabi, Raúl Garcia, Diego Arda, Adrian and Miranda.

Try picking a first goalscorer out of that lot. Atletico have Spain’s best set-play record offensively – they practice remorselessly and very often get it right.

That, allied to the fact that Atleti are noticeably good in the air in both attacking and defensive situations would suggest that conceding free kicks in the last third must be ‘verboten’ for Chelsea.

A little note for those who like in-play, should Atleti get a penalty and Costa is on the field he is likely to continue taking them – despite the fact that he’s missed four of eight this season.

Little details like that could well decide the whole tie and progress to Lisbon.

It’s old Chelsea against new Chelsea. May the better Chelsea win.

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