International Soccer Friendlies: How to Cash In
(Originally posted 5 June 2004) This weekend sees a full
slate of international soccer matches. Although they
give teams an excellent chance to warm up ahead of Euro 2004,
these games are utterly
meaningless. Nothing is at stake. Not trophies, not qualification,
in many cases not even pride. The conventional wisdom is
to avoid betting these types of
games because they’re totally unpredictable.
But a savvy handicapper knows how to navigate around the
uncertainties of international
friendly games. Here are a few things to look
out for:
Home advantage: Countries
like Albania, Moldova and Azerbaijan aren’t the most
pleasant places to visit. Road teams have to endure strange
customs, intimidating
stadiums and questionable food. So is it really surprising
that, say, the Italian national team would be less
concerned about winning or even playing the game
than they are about getting the heck out of that miserable
country?
Motivation: Because these
games are often totally meaningless, it’s hard to
expect much inspiration from the players. For the most part,
that’s an accurate
assessment of international friendlies. But sometimes pride
and the desire to restore
national dignity are the biggest motivators. If a country
is thrashed 5-0 in front of their home crowd you can bet they’ll
be out for revenge next time
out.
Rosters: A key factor to
remember in international friendlies is the best players
often don’t play. These are not the same faces you’ll see
at a World Cup game.
Instead we’re often treated to a match featuring a rag-tag bunch
of second stringers. As a rule, clubs are reluctant to release
their star players for
international duty. Why risk picking up an injury in
a match of dubious value? To avoid injury, players won’t
exert themselves.
Instead, you’ll see them jogging carefully around the pitch,
avoiding tackles and
confrontations.
Coaching: Managers will
frequently use these games to experiment with new strategies
and formations. A team comfortable playing 4-4-2 might try
5-3-2, 4-3-2-1 or other
formations. Players will be put in different positions.
The coach might try a left midfielder on the right side. He
might ask an offensive
midfielder to play a defensive role. A naturally attacking
team might practice counterattack or another strategy unsuited
to their natural style.
Public teams: Most punters
are only familiar with a few national teams. If
they don’t know about a team, they’ll assume it must be a
lousy one. “Sweden is
much better than Latvia. It’s a no brainer” is a typical
thought process. Of course, that
mind-set creates enormous value in unfancied teams, particularly home
underdogs. And since many of these games end in draws, the smart
handicapper will take the points
– usually a half-goal advantage – and turn
a draw into a winning bet.
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