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Carling Cup Prediction: Second Round Preview England’s Carling Cup is the poor relation of cup competitions. It gets little respect from the better clubs, and ranks a distant fifth in popularity behind the Premiership title, the Champions League, UEFA Cup and FA Cup. But it gives smaller clubs a chance to compete with the big boys and provides a financial windfall for those who participate. It also gives mid-table Premiership sides the chance of taking home some silverware, as Middlesbrough did last year. Though it may lack the glamour of other tournaments, the Carling Cup presents plenty of opportunities for a handicapper. As a general rule, avoid Premiership sides facing lower division opponents. This is especially true when the top flight club is playing away from home. A coach will often field a second string team, or experiment with tactics and player positions. Even when the best players suit up they tend to avoid confrontation, lest they risk an injury. Weak home underdogs have a financial incentive to play well, and are therefore risky to oppose. Several home dogs are either unbeaten in their home grounds or boast an excellent home record. That makes it extremely difficult for visiting teams to steal a victory, even Premiership teams. Several examples from this week’s matches support this. Portsmouth, who are winless on the road this season, travel to Tranmere, who are 4-1-0 at home. On Saturday, Fulham visit Boston United -- another unbeaten home side. Both Tranmere and Boston are worth backing at +0.5 because away wins seem unlikely. Sometimes, however, you can find a top flight team with an ounce or two of motivation. For a handicapper, that’s a powerful piece of information. Some of this week’s matches illustrate the concept. Tonight Manchester City face Barnsley, a bottom table League One side. City’s manager, Kevin Keegan, is on the ropes once again and will be fighting to keep his job. Anything less than a blow-out and Keegan’s head will be on the block. Under the circumstances, it’s hard to see Man City not winning this one, and they’re worth a punt even at -300. Motivation is also above average for the Premiership’s bottom dwellers and relegation favourites: Crystal Palace, Norwich and West Brom. Lacking the snobbery of the top flight’s elite, these minnows are hungry to make a name for themselves. All are winless so far this season, so a victory against first or second division opposition would be a huge boost. Resting players is not really an option, and would make little difference anyway. Applying the preceding logic reveals three good value Carling Cup plays: Crystal Palace (-220) over Hartlepool, Norwich (-300) over Bristol Rovers and West Brom (-105) over Colchester. |
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