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Betting Euro 2004: The Final Four The streets are silent. Heads are hanging low. The empire of ‘Roomania’ has fallen. Yes, England crashed out of a major tournament once again; but not without a bit of controversy. With only minutes to full time, a late header by Sol Campbell found the back of the Portuguese net. But the goal was disallowed on the grounds that the goalkeeper was impeded. Of course, England went on to lose in penalty kicks. Supporters across the country took a day off work to sit at home and ‘analyze’ the position of Campbell and John Terry in relation to the goalkeeper. As the country became engulfed by the scandal, few in England saw the ‘goal’ replayed less than 300 times. Terry clearly handled the goalkeeper, but it is questionable if that contact impeded the keeper in any way. Regardless of whether the contact was intentional or the goalkeeper was out of position, there was enough evidence for a referee to disallow the goal. In any case, the decision was far from a clear cut error; it could have gone either way. Several referees have weighed in on both sides. Not surprisingly, goalkeepers have largely endorsed the decision. Nonetheless, the English media have had a field day slamming the ref who ‘Made an Urs of himself.’ Urs Meier, a grocer from Switzerland, has received death threats for his decision. Newspapers have splashed his website address across their pages, encouraging England fans to send him ‘feedback.’ Hundreds of Romanian witches have cast a spell on Meier, united with England fans in their hatred for the official. Romania failed to qualify for Euro 2004 after Meier added five minutes of extra time in their match against Denmark. Needless to say, the Danes scored. Your correspondent even received an email from a major British sportsbook with Meier’s face on a stylized ‘Wanted’ poster. Of course, the media claim the turning point in the match was the injured Wayne Rooney leaving the field after 25 minutes. Intoxicated by the exploits of ‘Roonaldo’, few pundits were willing to accept the real reasons behind England’s failure. England conceded far too much ground to their opponents in this tournament. Against Portugal, England regularly had six to eight men in their own box. Even though opponents like France and Portugal struggled to break through all those bodies, it prevented England from effectively counterattacking. With only two men forward and a nonexistent midfield it became impossible for England to advance the ball and retain any meaningful possession. A virtual 8-0-2 formation forced England to play long balls up the field, a tactic the Portuguese stifled with ease. But the single biggest factor behind England’s demise was the strategy of coach Sven-Goran Eriksson. Against both France and Portugal, England tried to cling to a 1-0 lead, dropping back and defending for most of the match. On both occasions, the equalizer seemed inevitable. By giving their opponents chance after chance, it became only a matter of time before they scored. It’s even more remarkable England adopted such a strategy considering no team in the Premiership plays that way. Perhaps Eriksson spent too much time in Italy to realize he shouldn’t impose a style unsuited to English players. The story of this tournament, however, is not just England, but all the big countries crashing out. Coming into this tournament as favourites, the French were sent packing by minnows Greece. In fact, much of France’s success at Euro 2004 came down to luck rather than skill. They were losing for most of their match against England; they were gifted a goal to salvage a draw against Croatia; and it took France 75 minutes to score against Switzerland. Overconfidence and poor coaching that was unable or unwilling to control it meant this team’s luck would eventually run out. The Italians showed that building a team around a single player is a catastrophic strategy. Losing kingpin Francesco Totti to suspension after he spat on Christian Poulsen precipitated Italy’s collapse. The talk going into this tournament about Italy playing attacking soccer proved little more than hot air. A draw with Sweden cost them dearly, and despite continuing to attack for about 10 minutes after taking a 1-0 lead, the Italians could not help but drop back. Striker Christian Vieri’s awful performance didn’t help either; nearly a dozen of his headers missed the net. Spain choked once again, a result we expected. Instead of taking the game to Portugal, they played for a draw and were punished for it. Just like Italy and England, the Spaniards made the mistake of trying to hold a precarious lead, instead of continuing to attack. Germany was simply an awful team, possibly the worst at Euro 2004. They exhibited no offensive creativity whatsoever. The Germans severely lacked quality in several areas. But unlike Greece and Latvia, the Germans did not make up for it in coaching and team spirit. Only four teams are left standing: Czech Republic (+140): Superior coaching explains this team’s success. Karel Bruckner’s decision to field a reserve team against Germany was a brilliant move. If the Czech’s go on to win this tournament, it will be because of him. Portugal (+230): Despite being the last hurrah for the ‘Golden Generation’ of Rui Costa, Figo et al, the 19-year-old Cristiano Ronaldo has emerged as Portugal’s star at Euro 2004. Ronaldo’s determination seems to be rubbing off on his team-mates as Portugal have improved with each game at this tournament. Netherlands (+280): The Dutch won their first penalty shootout in a blue moon against Sweden. How? By specifically deciding not to practice penalties in training. Ruud Van Nistelrooy is in top form and has surprisingly settled his differences with Patrick Kluivert. Preventing dressing-room squabbles was always the difference between Holland’s success or failure at Euro 2004. Greece (+1000): ‘King Otto’ Rehhagel is Karel Bruckner’s only challenger for coach of the tournament. The German has instilled discipline and organization into this Greek team, taking them past Portugal, Spain and now France to the semi-finals. At 10:1, the Greeks remain the only team with any value on the outright market. But they face a tough game against the Czechs. |
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