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Arsenal the losers in RVP fiasco

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News of Robin van Persie’s decision not to extend his current deal at Arsenal will have come as a hammer blow to all connected to the club. The north Londoners have relied heavily on the Netherlands striker for their goals in recent seasons and if he leaves this summer, it will severely dent their chances of a top-four finish (Arsenal 4/9 Top 4 Finish).

Despite expressing his love for both the club and London throughout last season, it always seemed likely that van Persie’s days at the Emirates were numbered and now he has confirmed that he will not be penning a new deal at the club.

The main reason for his desire to move on, whether it is this summer or next, appears to be a disagreement “on the way Arsenal FC should move forward”.

Roughly translated, that means the Holland international wants to win trophies and, with Arsenal’s lack of success over the past six years, he feels his ambitions would be better served elsewhere.

That is fair enough as it is every player’s right to switch clubs when out of contract but, with only 12 months of his current deal to run, his transfer value will have fallen and the Gunners will no longer be able to demand mega bucks for their star striker.

Both management and player kept stating that there would be no negotiations until the end of the season but, given Wednesday’s announcement, that seems to have been an odd decision.

Had the 28-year-old made his feelings clearer last season, he could have been sold for a large fee in January, given that he was in the form of his life, and it may well be that Arsene Wenger decides to keep him in north London for next season to see if they can win a trophy before letting him leave for nothing.

Whatever happens, the club is the loser and it is open to debate as to whether the situation could have been handled in a better way.

It is true that Arsenal have underachieved in the past six years, with the Gunners’ faithful crying out for the Frenchman to spend some money, and Wenger has now begun to open the cheque book with the capture of Lukas Podolski and Olivier Giroud.

The two new recruits looked set to shoulder some of the burden for van Persie and may well have operated in a three-pronged attack.

With Theo Walcott and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain providing pace and width on the flanks, it appeared as though Wenger was putting together an exciting side that may even have challenged for the title – until Wednesday’s bombshell (Arsenal 10/1 Premier League Outright).

It is unclear how exactly van Persie wants the club to move forward, as that appears to be exactly what is happening.

Arsenal have never spent vast sums of money on transfer fees and it is unlikely, given their current policy, that they will ever land a true world star of the game.

But that is not the way that the French tactician operates as he chooses to sign young players, many of them French or north African, and develop them.

The problem has been holding onto his stars once they have made a name for themselves and a succession of top players have left the club in the past few years.

Last summer’s loss of Cesc Fabregas and Samir Nasri was a huge blow and talk at the time centred on how important it would be that van Persie did not follow suit.

But a lack of urgency to get him to pen a new deal has left the famous club with a dilemma on their hands.

There will doubtless be a number of suitors of the former Feyenoord man, with Juventus said to have already tabled an £8millon bid.

Whether or not that is true is unknown but surely a player of his standing is worth three times that amount – or would have been last season.

If he is sold during the summer transfer window then Wenger will need to plan again for next season with Podolski and Giroud’s roles changing ahead of the new campaign.

The veteran coach will have planned his tactics around having the Dutchman up front and he may now look to bring in another front man if RVP heads through the exit door.

The sight of their hero scoring goals for either of the Manchester clubs would certainly leave a bitter taste in the Arsenal fans’ mouths and, if rumours are to be believed, he would probably favour a move overseas.

The Rotterdam-born star has been linked with Barcelona and that would make for a scary attacking force at the Nou Camp with Lionel Messi still pulling the strings and scoring for fun.

There will doubtless be rumours and reported sightings of van Persie buying a house here, there and everywhere over the next few weeks, but the smart money is on him seeing out his contract with Arsenal and, in combination with the new stars, finally getting some silverware in the Emirates trophy cabinet (Arsenal 8/1 FA Cup Outright).

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Reasons to oppose Samba Stars

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The pressure of winning a World Cup on home soil and the lack of a genuine superstar are reasons enough to oppose home nation Brazil at 7/2 (tournament outright) winning the 2014 World Cup.

Add to this the statistic that of the 13 stagings of the showpiece event, only five host nations have won it on home soil, and punters are right to look away from Mano Menezes leading the current crop of Samba Stars to world domination.

Brazil can point to fellow South American nations Uruguay (1930) and Argentina (1974) winning the World Cup in their own back yard and it is true that friendly form offers few clues when it comes to the business end of tournaments.

Punters have to cast their minds back almost 12 months ago for the most recent and telling lines of form about the Brazilians.

A poor Copa America campaign yielded just one win from a group containing Venezuela, Paraguay and Ecuador. Defeat in the quarter-finals by the eventual finalists Paraguay and the silence back on the Copacabana Beach was deafening.

A friendly defeat by Germany followed before an impressive run of form which produced a 10-game unbeaten run, although job-done wins against the likes of Ghana and Gabon are devilishly difficult to decipher.

It is curious that in that run the Brazilians only ever managed to score over two goals twice, while they did manage to keep six clean sheets, suggesting substance over style has become the new mandate for success.

Only last month A Selecao lost two friendlies – to South American neighbours Mexico and a Lionel Messi-inspired Argentina – to suggest Menezes has his work cut out between now and the staging of the tournament.

In mitigation this is a Brazil side which has yet to peak – at 28 goalkeeper Jefferson is the oldest member of the current squad – and with age comes experience.

The Brazil sides of yesteryear have had household superstars to carry the weight of expectation, but the current squad lacks that box office attraction.

Santos favourite Neymar could light up the tournament and possesses moments of magnetism, while Alexandre Pato and Hulk also have age on their side.

Thiago Silva is now in his peak years for AC Milan and left-back Marcelo offers an excellent out-ball, but a lack of experience at international level in midfield could cost Brazil.

By contrast, Spain (4/1 – 2014 World Cup outright) have just won a third successive major international tournament to consign their also-rans tag to the dustbin and look the more complete package, while the climate is unlikely to trouble them.

Germany’s exciting crop of emerging talent will benefit from a painful Euro 2012 exit (8/1 Germany – 2014 World Cup outright), while other South American nations, subject to qualifying, such as Uruguay (20/1 – 2014 World Cup outright), the top side for the region at the 2010 World Cup, will feel they too can steal Brazil’s thunder.

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Spain to smash hoodoo

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Spain’s impressive Euro 2012 final demolition job on Italy in Kiev on Sunday helped them create football history in major tournaments and has already got lovers of the game wondering if they can now overcome the challenge of being victorious on South American soil (World Cup 2014 outright).

The Spanish sides imperious performance in the 4-0 win against the Azzurri ensured they became the first nation to win three major tournaments in a row.

And, as the door to one tournament closes, then another one opens as all eyes are now firmly fixed on the 2012 World Cup finals in Brazil in two years’ time and the fresh challenge on the table not only for Spain, but all of Europe’s other top footballing nations.

In the history of World Cup tournaments since 1930 no team from Europe has managed to win the trophy on the American continent in seven attempts.

However, we feel there will be no better time for that hoodoo to come to an end in 2014 with Spain (4/1 World Cup 2014 Outright) leading the charge to put the record straight.

The Spanish have dragged European football on in leaps and bounds in the 18-years since the last World Cup finals across the Atlantic when Brazil defeated Italy in the final in the United States.

Spain’s tactics have become a huge talking point as their tiki-taka style of play, which involves slow build-up passages of play involving intricate passing, similar to the great Brazil sides of the past, which ultimately leads to fast attacking forays as their players exploit any gaps in the opposition’s defence.

The style had attracted some critics, who described it as boring throughout the championship in Poland and Ukraine, but the Spanish answered them with the perfect response when tearing Italy to shreds at times on Sunday evening.

Looking at the current Spain squad and this is not a collection of players that are approaching their sell-by date.

Current coach Vicente Del Bosque should be able to call upon the vast majority of the squad which triumphed in Euro 2012 and the 2010 World Cup with only possible doubts surrounding the likes of Carles Puyol, Carlos Marchena and Joan Capdevilla.

Xavi, at the age of 34, will no doubt still be able to command a place in the side, but the majority of the current midfield and forward line will be in what is regarded as a footballer’s prime years.

Throw into the mix the likes of strike duo Fernando Llorente and Roberto Soldado, who did not kick a ball at Euro 2012, and Spain have quality options to step in for any ageing players such as David Villa, who will only be 32.

It would be wrong to pin Europe’s hopes on just Spain as Germany (8/1 Outright) and Italy (20/1) were also technically strong and impressed throughout Euro 2012.

Therefore the signs are good that Europe’s flourishing nations can finally go and test South American big boys such as the hosts Brazil (7/2), Argentina (11/2) and Uruguay (20/1) – arguably the best side in the continent at the time of writing having lifted the Copa America last summer following a fourth-placed World Cup finish in 2010 – in their own back yard.

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Italy growing in stature at Euros

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The climax of the Euro 2012 jamboree is now upon us and it is not the ‘dream final‘ that many had predicted, with Italy proving too good for Germany – yet again – to set up a showdown with defending champions Spain in Kiev.

Many expected La Roja to be there again having started the tournament as the favourites on the back of their success in 2008, coupled with a World Cup triumph in South Africa two years ago.

Despite the squad being criticised for their ‘boring’ style of play, manager Vicente del Bosque’s apparent dislike of strikers and the fact they have perhaps not been at their best in Poland and Ukraine, Spain have made it through to the third successive major final having conceded just one goal in five games to date.

Nobody gave Italy much of a chance before the tournament got under way, having suffered defeats in all three of their warm-up games as well as the scandal back home which deprived Cesare Prandelli of a number of players earmarked for his squad.

The lack of a truly big name – such as Alessandro del Piero or Francesco Totti – left some wondering who could be the game-changer if things weren’t going according to plan – but they have improved as the tournament has gone on and were mightily impressive in their knockout victories over England (on penalties) and Germany in the semi-finals.

Spain have been installed as the 6/5 favourites in the match betting, with the Azzurri priced at 13/5 to upset their treble bid and the draw after 90 minutes on offer at 11/5.

Del Bosque’s men are expected to lift the trophy – one or another – as they are 8/15 in the outright betting, with Italy priced at 6/4 for ultimate glory.

These two sides have met in the tournament already as they shared a 1-1 draw in their opening game in Group C which suggests the Italians are far from out of it, and they perhaps are the value bet given the way they dispatched tournament fancies Germany in the last four.

Prandelli now has a striker in form with Mario Balotelli banging in both goals against the Germans to take his tournament tally to three – and he is the 11/8 favourite to go on and be named the Euro 2012 Top Goalscorer.

The Manchester City hitman wasted a great chance to score against the Spanish in the group stages but should now be full of confidence and can be backed at 7/1 to score the first/last goal on Sunday and at 10/1 to score 2 or more.

Fernando Torres, with two tournament goals to his name, still has a chance of topping the goal charts and can be backed at 10/1 to do so but punters will be taking a chance on him opening the scoring as a 5/1 favourite as he has not started three of five games in the tournament, and did not even come off the bench against Portugal.

Following his disappointing display in the semis, Alvaro Negredo is unlikely to be given the nod again, which could open the way for Cesc Fabregas to be reinstated in the ‘false nine’ position that Del Bosque appears to favour.

Like Torres, the Barcelona man has two goals to his name and did score in the earlier draw with Italy after Antonio di Natale had put the Azzurri ahead – with that goal still the only one conceded by Spain in the tournament to date.

However, Spain have traditionally found it hard going against Sunday’s opponents in tournament football and have not beaten Italy in 90 minutes in competitive games since 1920, needing penalties to get past the Azzurri in the quarter-finals in 2008.

If Spain manage to gel then it could be a long evening for Italy but they have shown little sign of dominating any match so far – with the exception of the Republic of Ireland cakewalk, while Del Bosque appears unclear as how best to utilise his squad.

Italy, though, have really got it together and having sent a Germany side that many thought were better than Spain packing, they offer the value to cause another shock and put their recent troubles behind them – as they did in 2006.

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Germany to end Azzurri hoodoo

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Surprisingly Germany have not beaten Italy in their last seven competitive meetings but Die Mannschaft are in prime position to end that disappointing run in their Euro 2012 semi-final showdown on Thursday (Germany 10/11, draw 12/5, Italy 7/2 – Match Betting).

The Germans remain one of the favourites to win Euro 2012, having played better football than defending champions Spain, who have failed to get out of second gear in the tournament so far.

Head coach Joachim Low decided to field a relatively weakened attacking line-up in their 4-2 victory over Greece in the quarter-finals and that decision could prove to be a great move from the tactician.

Mario Gomez (4/1 – First Goalscorer), Lukas Podolski and Thomas Muller were are rested for the win over the Greeks and the trio look set to make a return to the side with fresh legs to face an Italian team who will be weary.

The Germans will have watched in the comfort of their hotel as the Azzurri slogged to a penalty shoot-out victory over England in Kiev.

Having battled for 120 minutes and gone through the drama of the 4-2 shoot-out win over the Three Lions, the match will have taken a lot out of the side who were considered dark horses before the competition.

The big question over the Italians has been where the goals will come from and Manchester City striker Mario Balotelli will be under serious pressure for his starting role after a disappointing showing against England.

Balotelli (7/1 – First Goalscorer) seemed off the pace and most of his shots found their way into the stadium car park rather than anywhere near the goal.

Manager Cesare Prandelli has been pretty loyal to the controversial figure but his patience will have been tested by the player’s below par quarter-final display.

Italy do have other options in attack, with the likes of Antonio Di Natale and Alessandro Diamanti pushing for a starting role to line up alongside Antonio Cassano.

The key man for the Azzurri will once again be their midfield general Andrea Pirlo, who was imperious against the English, who were guilty of giving the Juventus playmaker time and space on the ball.

It’s not the best kept secret in football that if you stop Pirlo you pretty much stop the Italians, so expect Low to have done his homework and have someone like Sami Khedira tracking him throughout the game.

Considering the extra time Germany have had to prepare for this game and the fact they saw off the Greeks in 90 minutes, the odds are really stacked up against the Azzurri (7/4 – To Qualify).

Italy will have to be at their best if they are to come close to beating one of the tournament favourites and it’s hard to see them edging the Germans in normal time, but anything can happen in extra-time and penalties.

However, with the returning firepower of Gomez, Muller and Podolski, Germany (13/8 – Euro 2012 Outright) should manage to book their place in yet another final of a major tournament.

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Germany believe time has come

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The sleepy eyes did not hide the determination behind the stare when Mesut Ozil suggested Euro 2012 would be a failure were Germany to return empty-handed (Germany 13/8 joint favourites – Euro 2012 outright).

Die Mannschaft must first plot a way to beat semi-final opponents Italy for the first time in eight attempts at a major tournament if they are to be crowned European champions for a fourth time (Germany 2/5 – To Qualify).

Key to their chances will be Real Madrid playmaker Ozil, who has rightly been lauded for a number of eye-catching performances and is a generous 9/1 in the First and Last Goalscorer markets.

Victory at the Olympic Stadium in Kiev on Sunday will also be the culmination of a master-plan which was underpinned by the promotion of youth.

Not content with being the only nation with a 100 per cent record left in the tournament, Ozil said Germany would not be satisfied unless they realised their dream.

“We knew before the tournament that we had a strong team,” said the 23-year-old. “We believe in ourselves and the goal is to return to Germany with the title. That’s why we are here and I’m convinced we can do it.”

“No one can stop us now” is the view of newspaper Bild, while Germany captain Philipp Lahm reiterated the side’s mission statement.

He said: “So far we have rewarded ourselves for our hard work in the last few years and weeks. But we have always maintained that we want to play the final on Sunday. We want to win it and want to stay here until the very end.”

Germany no longer enjoy the space they were afforded at the 2010 World Cup, nor are they untouchable (Italy 7/4 – To Qualify).

A 5-3 defeat by Switzerland before the Poland and Ukraine showpiece highlighted flaws in defence, still evident given that Germany have conceded in their three games since keeping a clean sheet against Portugal in their Group B opener.

But with experience comes maturity and this is a Germany side packed with pace and power, complemented by the excellent midfield general Sami Khedira.

The Real Madrid enforcer provides the platform in a tried and trusted 4-2-3-1 formation for the likes of Bastian Schweinsteiger, Ozil, et al to unlock a door.

“He has become a real leader; he is very good, very dynamic, very present,” said coach Joachim Loew. “It is good for the others that he’s there.”

Loew, who rested heavyweights Mario Gomez, Lukas Podolski and Thomas Muller against Greece, has said Germany do not intend to sit back against the Azzurri and will look to dictate.

No doubt with Ozil at the forefront.

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Ronaldo v Spain

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Real Madrid superstar Cristiano Ronaldo has worked wonders to carry Portugal to the semi-finals of Euro 2012 but he faces his biggest challenge when his side meet defending champions Spain on Wednesday night (Portugal 7/2, draw 12/5, Spain 10/11 Match Betting).

It’s not often at this level of football that you will see such a game resolve purely around the performance of one individual, but the chance of a scalp for the Portuguese does rest on Ronaldo (5/1 first goalscorer) and whether he is on the top of the game at the Donbass Arena in Donetsk.

The former Manchester United forward notched up 46 goals in La Liga this term, so he has no qualms in facing Spanish opposition, but the national side will prove a completely different prospect all together.

Ronaldo (2/1 Euro 2012 top goalscorer) has bagged himself three goals in the European Championships so far and could have had plenty more, having hit the woodwork on a host of occasions.

The 27-year-old’s ability to score goals from 30 yards, three yards, with his head, or either feet, mean he is a nightmare to defend against – especially when you add to that his blistering pace.

His Real team-mate Alvaro Arbeloa is the man who has been given the unenviable task to keep Ronaldo quiet on Wednesday night and the defender will be hoping that Spain’s ability to keep hold of the ball will give him some respite from the striker’s attacks.

Portugal do have some other stars who must play a strong supporting role if they are to reach the final, to face either Germany or Italy, with United winger Nani set to add another attacking string to the Portuguese bow.

The former Sporting Lisbon player has not been at the peak of his powers in the tournament so far but on his night he can cause defenders serious problems, as he has shown in the Premier League.

Midfielder Raul Meireles must play a disciplined role in the middle of the park, whilst Joao Moutinho is set to add another creative spark in behind Ronaldo.

But Spain are European and world champions for a reason and their ability to work just has hard off the ball as they do with it makes them such a difficult opponent.

The Spanish have not reached top gear in the competition so far, but they have not really had to at this stage, and the fact they have seemed to have got this far without starting a recognised striker in some of their outings has shown the quality of their personnel.

Goals can come from all over the pitch with Spain – which makes choosing a first goalscorer for the defending champions difficult.

Chelsea’s Fernando Torres (11/8 anytime goalscorer) will be determined to play a role but it’s uncertain whether head coach Vicente del Bosque will select the Blues striker.

If Spain (13/8 Euro 2012 outright) can keep tabs on Ronaldo and frustrate the world-class front man, then they could win this game by a couple of goals and they should be able to string enough attacks of their own, to book their place in the final on July 1.

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Can Pirlo guide Italy to glory?

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Italy (11/2 – Euro 2012 Outright) may not have been among many people’s predictions to make even the semi-finals in Poland and Ukraine but now, with midfield genius Andrea Pirlo in such scintillating form, can the Azzurri dare to dream of winning the tournament?

Certainly, before the action got underway this month, very few people were suggesting Cesare Prandelli’s side could make it to the last four but, following their quarter-final win over England on penalties on Sunday, they are in with a chance of glory and prepare to take on Germany on Thursday as lively underdogs.

Italy began the competition with a deserved 1-1 draw against Spain and could yet meet them again in Sunday’s final if they overcome an impressive German outfit first. They followed the first game up with another 1-1 draw – this time against Croatia – before seeing off Ireland 2-0 in their final group game.

It is fair to say they were effective and solid in those games rather than being sparkling but, at times against England, Italy had the look of potential tournament winners with man-of-the-match Pirlo dominating the game and stealing the show.

The veteran star has, like the team in general, grown into the tournament and his display in Kiev was almost perfect. Pirlo picked off passes left, right and centre with the craft and subtlety of a master artist and England’s tiring pair of Steven Gerrard and Scott Parker simply couldn’t get near him as the game progressed.

If he can find a similarly-domineering performance against Germany then, you never know, Italy might just be able to pull off a shock and get to the final (Italy 7/2, Germany 5/6, draw 9/4 – 90 minute prices).

Taking on, and getting the better of, Bastian Schweinsteiger, Thomas Muller and Mesut Ozil, is a tough task, however, as they are all experienced, top international players but Pirlo, aided by the busy Riccardo Montolivo, should not be underestimated.

The Germans are unlikely to do that now after being impressed by the manner of the win over England and another tight semi-final is in prospect.

Italy say they fear no-one left in the tournament and, if they can get past Germany, do not be surprised to see them going on to triumph next Sunday.

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Golden Boot for Gomez?

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Despite sitting out the best part of Germany’s quarter-final victory over Greece, Mario Gomez (15/8 Top Goalscorer) is still well placed to claim the Euro 2012 Golden Boot.

German coach Joachim Loew surprised many with his decision to rest his first-choice strike trio of Gomez, Thomas Mueller and Lukas Podolski for the last-eight clash in Gdansk.

However, his decision was vindicated as young replacements Marco Reus and Andre Schurrle produced eye-catching performances, while Miroslav Klose continued his excellent goalscoring record at international level. The 4-2 scoreline flattered a poor Greece outfit and there was a sense Germany had plenty left in reserve.

Gomez should return in Thursday’s semi-final against either Italy or England and have the opportunity to pull clear in the race for the Golden Boot.

Portugal’s Cristiano Ronaldo (2/1 Top Goalscorer) moved level with Gomez on three goals with the only goal of the game against the Czech Republic to set up a semi-final clash with holders Spain.

The Real Madrid star was disappointing in the opening two games of the tournament but came alive in the crucial final Group B match against the Netherlands and carried that form into the game in Warsaw.

The former Manchester United winger hit the post in each half before finally breaking the deadlock with a powerful header in the 80th minute as Portugal held on comfortably to dump the Czechs out of the competition.

Ronaldo would arguably be the favourite to top the goalscoring chart, but for the presence of Spain in Portugal’s half of the draw. Barring a major surprise, he will have only one more game to press his case for the accolade.

Spain have three men in the frame to claim the Golden Boot. Cesc Fabregas and Fernando Torres have scored twice, despite limited game time, while Xabi Alonso bagged a surprise brace in Spain’s comfortable 2-0 victory over France on Saturday.

Spain coach Vicente del Bosque again decided against playing a recognised striker in Donetsk, replacing Torres with midfielder Fabregas. It is difficult to know which way the boss will go in Wednesday’s semi-final.

In that respect, Alonso (25/1 Top Goalscorer) could represent Spain’s best hope for top scorer. The former Liverpool man is not one of his country’s most forward-thinking players but has an eye for a goal and possesses an excellent long-range shot. He represents a good outside bet.

Should Gomez and Ronaldo fail to find the net again in the championship, they would share the Golden Boot with Alan Dzagoev and Mario Mandzukic, whose countries failed to reach the knockout stage.

Players from England and Italy could yet threaten the current leaders, with Wayne Rooney (25/1 Top Goalscorer) and Mario Balotelli among those on one goal with potentially three games to play.

However, it would take a big effort to overtake Gomez and Ronaldo at this stage of the competition. Gomez has the edge given his goalscoring record and Germany’s impressive form, but you can never rule Ronaldo out.

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England eye historic win

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England are bidding to reach the semi-final of a major tournament for the first time in 16 years when they take on Italy in the big Euro 2012 quarter-final on Sunday (England 9/5 draw 2/1 Italy 9/5 – 90 minutes match prices) But can they do it?

In stark contrast to major tournaments in previous years, England travelled to Poland and the Ukraine with low expectations among players, management and supporters.

Thanks to the ‘golden generation’ being on the wane, a raft of injuries decimating the squad, Wayne Rooney’s two-match suspension and boss Roy Hodgson’s late appointment, the Three Lions were considered one of the outsiders for the competition, with qualifying from the group seen as an achievement.

However, England have not only managed to make it to the knock-out stages, but they did so as group winners, avoiding world and European champions Spain in the quarter-finals as a result.

The triumph in Group D was based on defensive solidity and organisation, with their 1-1 opening game draw against France giving them the perfect platform.

But it hasn’t all been about defending; they also showed tremendous spirit to come from behind against Sweden, while their victory over Ukraine was laced with a sprinkling of good luck – all factors required to be successful in a major tournament. It is little wonder, then, that England fans are dreaming again.

Their outright odds have gone in to 8/1 as a result, with many believing the squad is at its most unified in years.

However, to be within a chance of competing for a first European crown England must first do what they haven’t done for 14 years – beat Italy.

Indeed, before we all get too excited it needs to be noted that England have never beaten a major footballing nation in a knock-out game on foreign soil. So Cesare Prandelli’s side – World champions just five years ago – represent a significant challenge.

Their build-up to the tournament was once again tainted by allegations of match-fixing in the domestic game, with police even raiding the team’s training camp.

The last time such scandal engulfed Italian football, the national team went all the way to World Cup glory. There appears to be a similar determination to improve the image of the Italian game among the players this time around (Italy 8/1 Euro 2012 outright).

They were placed in a tough-looking Group C alongside Spain, Croatia and Ireland. A credible 1-1 draw with Spain was followed up with the same scoreline against Croatia before a comfortable 2-0 win against Ireland sealed their progress as group runners-up.

Like England their game is based on being tight defensively, so it is not surprising therefore that the odds for under 2.5 goals is a popular choice at 1/2 while 1 goals or less is temptingly priced at 17/10.

It is believed Hodgson will stick with the same starting XI that began against Ukraine on Tuesday, meaning Wayne Rooney and Danny Welbeck will start up front.

Rooney made a goalscoring entrance to the competition with the only goal of the game against the co-hosts – his first at a major tournament since 2004 – and he is unsurprisingly 5/1 favourite to score first for England on Sunday.

Skipper Steven Gerrard, who may also be the team’s primary penalty taker (though Rooney may have something to say about that), is also worth considering at 9/1.

For Italy, much of the pre-match hype has surrounded the enigmatic Mario Balotelli. The Manchester City forward can produce the sublime or the ridiculous so he has to be considered at 13/2 to score first.

However, he isn’t guaranteed to start, with Udinese forward Antonio Di Natalie – a less controversial striking option – in contention. The 34-year-old is 6/1 to open the scoring.

The magnificent Andrea Pirlo acts as Italy’s heartbeat in midfield and will need to be watched closely by the England backline. He scored a wonderful free-kick against Croatia in the group stages and is certain to be a danger from set-pieces again – you can get odds of 12/1 on the Juventus man netting first.

With such a huge prize on offer the key to this game could be who manages to hold their nerve. With both sides priding themselves on keeping things tight at the back, goals should be hard to come by here.

If England are to progress, 1-0 priced at 6/1 would be a wise choice, although with talk of a penalty shoot-out, a goalless draw after 90 minutes is also worth considering at 11/2.

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