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History with the French

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The knockout stages at Euro 2012 are now in full swing with the attention on Saturday turning to the defending champions as Spain take on France in Dontesk, Ukraine, with the kick off at 745pm.

Vicente del Bosque’s men have not quite hit the heights that many expected of them and that is reflected in the betting, as they have now slipped to second favouritism for the tournament outright, priced at 5/2 behind 2/1 market leaders Germany.

Despite their relative troubles against Italy and Croatia it is worth noting that La Roja still qualified as Group C winners, while France had to settle for a runners-up berth in Group D in what looked an easier task on paper.

Spain are not expected to slip up in Donetsk as they are priced as the 4/5 favourites in the match betting, with the draw on offer at 5/2 while Les Bleus can be backed at 4/1 to cause a shock.

Forgetting the Republic of Ireland clash, Del Bosque’s side struggled to a 1-1 draw in their opener against Italy, while Croatia missed two golden chances to open the scoring before Jesus Navas popped up with a late winner.

Laurent Blanc’s team had started the tournament in reasonable fashion, enjoying the better of a 1-1 draw against England before easing past co-hosts Ukraine 2-0.

However, their dismal failure against already-eliminated Sweden in the last group game has perhaps dampened the spirits, particularly given the news of a dressing-room spat which brought back memories of the problems suffered at the World Cup in 2010.

At 4/1 though, France cannot be ruled out of the reckoning – providing the players have put the fallout from the Sweden defeat behind them – as they have never lost to Spain in a competitive fixture.

Les Bleus triumphed in the final of the European Championships in 1984, won again in the quarter-finals in 2000, while they were the last team to eliminate Spain from a major tournament when they triumphed 3-1 in the first knockout stage at the 2006 World Cup.

La Roja have of course gone on to win Euro 2008 and the World Cup since that defeat and have lost just one game in the process – 1-0 against Switzerland in South Africa.

Spain have won 36 of 38 competitive games since that French loss and will undoubtedly be hard to beat, although there appears to be one or two question marks over the current team.

Del Bosque started the tournament with a ‘false nine’ in Cesc Fabregas against Italy and, although he has two goals to his name, Fernando Torres has started the last two games.

Right-back Alvaro Arbeloa has come in for some criticism from the Spanish media with calls for Juanfran to start against France, who have the dangerous Franck Ribery operating down the left-hand side.

Laurent Blanc has his own issues to sort out, with Karim Benzema a constant threat in La Liga last season but yet to hit the target at Euro 2012.

Philippe Mexes is definitely ruled out through suspension meaning the France boss has to alter his defensive plan, although he is boosted by the news Samir Nasri has been passed fit to play.

Spain have won three of the last four encounters between the two, albeit in friendlies, and may find a little more space against the French, who were critical of England’s defensive tactics against them in the opening round of fixtures.

By the same token, the French forwards may find a little more space themselves and can cause the champions’ back four problems, which certainly sets up an intriguing contest.

Added to the mix is the possibility of the teams’ trying to win a psychological edge ahead of the World Cup qualifiers as they have been drawn together in Group I.

Spain are understandable favourites but history is on the side of the French and they look the value at 4/1 to score a shock, in a game that looks to have a good potential for goals (Over 2.5 Goals – 6/4).

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No rescue fund from Germany

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Germany have never lost to Greece in eight previous encounters and Friday’s Euro 2012 quarter-final showdown in Gdansk should hold few fears for the 9/4 outright betting favourites.

Joachim Low has played a straight bat about his side’s hopes of avoiding a Greek tragedy but one suspects the 52-year-old will not lose too much sleep over the 2004 tournament winners.

Greece should be commended for a never-say-die attitude and willingness to dig deep in the trenches. What they lack in style, they make up for in substance and it is this stubbornness which led them to glory in Portugal, where they kept the most clean sheets (three).

This time around they will be missing captain and talisman Giorgios Karagounis, who serves a one-game ban after picking up his second yellow card of the tournament against Russia, and this has to blunt them as an attacking unit.

The game-plan will be to stifle the Germans in midfield and cut off the supply lines but this is knockout football now and therein lies the problem for the Greeks.

The Germans have taken the lead in all three matches at Euro 2012, plus each of their 10 qualifiers, going on to win all of those games. They have not fallen behind in a competitive game since the third-place play-off against Uruguay at the 2010 World Cup and have won their last 14 competitive games.

Low has so many options going forward he should not be concerned about the risk of attacks being cut off at source – nor falling behind against the Greeks, so often the stuff of nightmares against such a resilient bunch.

Mario Gomez has found the form which deserted him at the end of the season for Bayern Munich and has hit three already during Euro 2012, so it is a surprise to see him priced up at 3/1 (First and Last Goalscorer).

Germany have scored two goals or more in 14 of their last 16 games but it may be wise to err against any exotic scorelines at PGE Arena, Gdansk – an angle highlighted by the presence of Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor, whose tough austerity measures she has demanded in return for financial aid for the debt-laden Greeks make it unlikely she will be sunning herself on any of the country’s destination hot spots this summer.

Greece are short enough at 4/11 to book a place in the last four, with the draw priced up 4/1 and Greece out as big as 8/1 to complete an upset (90 minutes).

Expect the Germans to come away with a job-done outcome, with focal point Gomez 1-0 (16/1) and 2-0 (14/1) attractive in the Popular Scorecast Selections market.

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Czechs set to check-out

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The Czech Republic are one of the surprise teams to make the quarter-finals of Euro 2012 and they now meet Portugal in the last eight on Thursday, but can Michal Bilek’s side continue to exceed expectations and go further in the tournament?

The Czechs (9/2 – Match Odds) were long shots to qualify for the knockout stage after a comprehensive 4-1 defeat against Russia on the first day in Poland and Ukraine but, somehow, they recovered from that setback to top Group A.

However, they face tough opponents next and are likely to be heading home after the upcoming showdown in Warsaw.

The suggestion before the competition began was that the Czech Republic were an ageing side, short on quality, who were not expected to make much of an impact this summer.

They have proved some doubters wrong with two narrow wins after the Russia debacle and enter Thursday’s tie with nothing much to lose as everyone is expecting Cristiano Ronaldo (4/1 – Euro 2012 Top Goalscorer) to lead Portugal (8/11 – Match Odds) into the semis.

They proved they could cope in an intimidating final group clash against co-hosts Poland and came out 1-0 winners, with the influential Petr Jiracek on target, and they will need him at his best again if they are to hurt Portugal.

Unfortunately for Bilek’s men, key midfielder Tomas Rosicky is a major injury doubt for the quarter-final and was forced to return to Prague to seek treatment on an Achilles problem this week amid fears he will miss the rest of the tournament.

His replacement Daniel Kolar impressed against Poland but he may find it tough going against the likes of Raul Meireles, Joao Moutinho and Miguel Veloso on Thursday if he again has to stand in.

Indeed, the Czechs may find it tough going overall against a Portugal side who appear to be revving into gear and peaking at just the right time.

There was criticism of talisman Ronaldo in the first two group games as the Real Madrid ace missed several good chances in the 1-0 defeat to Germany and the dramatic 3-2 win over Denmark.

But the £80million-man put it all to bed with two goals and an all-round impressive match-winning display over Holland and now some are saying he could lead his country all the way to the final in Kiev on July 1.

Portugal boss Paulo Bento has fielded the same starting XI in all three games in the tournament so far and is expected to keep faith with his players once again in Warsaw, despite ongoing question marks over frontman Helder Postiga.

Nani, Pepe and Fabio Coentrao are all experienced campaigners performing consistently and Portugal remain lively outsiders for the overall crown at Euro 2012, with totesport currently offering odds of 13/2 on them triumphing.

Bento also has good options in reserve with talented players Silvestre Valera, Ricardo Quaresma and Nelson Oliviera, but the side that has served him so well so far is expected to get another chance to impress in the last eight.

It is a side that has plenty of admirers and one likely to have a bit too much for the Czech Republic who face a last-eight exit.

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Seleccao have sniff of last four

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Monday’s O Jogo lauded Portugal for a performance roughly translated as “This is Royal” against the Netherlands and expectations are now high for another regal performance when they attempt to reach the semi-finals of Euro 2012 at the expense of Czech Republic on Thursday.

All roads lead to Stadion Narodowy with the Portuguese priced up 8/11 (90 minutes) to turn in the same stellar performance which saw the Dutch end a demoralising stay in Poland and Ukraine on Sunday night in Kharkiv (Czech Republic 4/1 draw 12/5).

Headline-maker Cristiano Ronaldo (4/1 Euro 2012 Top Goalscorer) finally translated his Real Madrid form with a brace but the support cast of team-mates Miguel Veloso and Joao Moutinho should not be underestimated.

The Santiago Bernabeu favourite should be taken up at 3/1 (First and Last Goalscorer) to frank his form against a Czech Republic side which, despite finishing top of Group A, conceded more goals than scored.

Positive noises about the spirit of the squad at the Opalenica training camp were tangible and in stark contrast to Holland, viewed by many as a collection of square pegs in round holes.

Add to this confidence and momentum and suddenly Portugal look like dangerous opponents heading into the business end of the marquee tournament.

The Czechs never turned up against Russia but creditable wins against Greece and Poland is proof enough that Michal Bílek’s men should not be taken lightly, although a clean sheet against the co-hosts stopped a run of five games conceding in all competitions.

The Portuguese are by no means watertight so a high goals projection seems a fair suggestion but the attacking menace of Ronaldo, Nani, et al gives them the edge.

A Deco-inspired Portugal were comfortable 3-1 winners against Czech Republic in Euro 2008 in Austria and Switzerland, a game in which Ronaldo also found the net, and Seleccao fans will be hoping history repeats itself.

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England to upset their hosts

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England fans might have just recovered from the stress of Friday’s thrilling 3-2 win over Sweden in time for Tuesday’s crunch Group D encounter with co-hosts Ukraine (90 minutes). Roy Hodgson’s men need just a point to go through to the quarter-finals but England fans will know it may not be that simple. Will Roy’s boys make it through or crash and burn?

The permutations of England’s game in Donestk on Tuesday are fairly simple: avoid defeat and reach the quarter-finals, bettering the expectations of some supporters. Loss and come home early with your tails between your legs again.

While the two performances by the Three Lions to date have been far from convincing they have produced the necessary results and that is all that matters at this point.

Whether we will see a return to a cautious approach by England in the last group game is up for debate, Hodgson keeping his cards close to his chest when it comes to his plans for Ukraine. The England coach is more than likely going to restore Wayne Rooney to his starting XI for the game, meaning either Danny Welbeck or Andy Carroll will drop to the bench.

Both players performed well against Sweden and Hodgson will have to weigh up whether he wants the physical presence of Carroll or the pace and trickier of Welbeck. Either way, Rooney is likely to play just off whoever starts up front and should make the difference against the co-hosts.

No doubt it will be a hostile atmosphere in Donestk but England came through something similar on Friday when the Swedes outnumbered the English 3-to-1 in Kiev. The Three Lions have the edge in terms of history as well, winning three out of the four meetings. However, they did lose their most recent clash against Ukraine in 2010 in a World Cup qualifier.

The Ukraines are 5/2 to secure the three points they need to make it through to the next round, with a repeat of their 1-0 win over England two years ago priced at 9/1. Hodgsons team are 6/5 and the draw 9/4 (match betting).

The draw seems like the most likely outcome in this one, especially with Ukraine’s main threat Andriy Shevchenko a doubt for the game. Some critics may say England lack strength in depth but the fact the Ukrainians are still relying on 35-year-old Shevchenko to get the goals speaks volumes about the state of their team.

The former Chelsea man has scored all of his nation’s goals in the tournament thus far and without him you struggle to see Ukraine getting more than one, even with England’s issues with set pieces.

Rooney is bound to want to prove a point and as such you’d fancy him to pop up with a goal. The Manchester United striker is 13/8 to score anytime and 9/2 to break the deadlock first. It seems to be inevitable that game will be an ugly contest given the lack of skill both teams possess. However, Rooney could prove to be the one bit of quality England need to edge it.

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France wary of ‘hurt’ Swedes

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France take on Sweden in their final Group D match on Tuesday knowing that qualification to the Euro 2012 quarter-finals is very much in their own hands (Sweden 5/1, France 8/13, draw 9/4 – Match Prices).

Les Bleus have been tipped by many to go far this summer but will have to be watchful against a Sweden side looking to regain some pride after two defeats.

French optimism was replaced by general whinging after their opening draw against England, as anyone with an opinion blasted England’s defensive style, but they bounced back to take all three points against Ukraine with a solid 2-0 victory.

That success was all the more impressive given the circumstances surrounding the match, and they clearly coped with the storm delay better than the co-hosts.

They sit at the top of the standings, level with England on four points, and a draw on Tuesday night in Kiev’s Olympic Stadium will be enough to see them through to the last eight.

Defeat would by no means be a disaster, as a Ukraine victory over England could still see them qualify on goal difference depending on the severity of the French loss (Ukraine 5/2 – To Qualify).

But Les Bleus will not be thinking of losing and have the talent to take care of a Swedish outfit who, despite showing some promise, have ultimately disappointed to date in the competition.

They were beaten by a Ukraine side whose coach, Oleg Blokhin, had virtually conceded defeat before a ball had been kicked, before going down to an England side who had been tipped to struggle in Poland and Ukraine.

France showed their true colours against Ukraine last time out and their big players upped the level with the likes of Franck Ribery, Karim Benzema and Yohan Cabaye all excelling.

A repeat display should be god enough to at least come away with the draw they need but they will have to be wary of the threat of Zlatan Ibrahimovic.

Tipped to be a star of the tournament, the AC Milan striker has scored just one goal to date in a losing cause against the east Europeans and he will want to exit the competition on a high.

He was well marshalled by the England rearguard and the French back four will have taken note of that display.

France’s defence is not the strongest and so the Swedes are not without hope of at least bagging one goal to end their participation on a positive note, but they would love to conclude with a win to deflect some of the criticism that is certain to come their way on returning home.

The Scandinavians have led in both their matches to date but have been unable to get over the line and Ibrahimovic and a number of his team-mates made it clear after the England defeat that they thought they were the better side.

Whether or not that is true is open to debate but it is goals that count and the fact that they were unable to stop 35-year-old Andriy Shevchenko and could not deal with the pace of Theo Walcott when he was introduced by Roy Hodgson means they prop up the group and have nothing but pride to play for this week.

They are clearly taking this match seriously as reports claim the entire squad took part in training on Sunday despite the fact that it had been made voluntary by coach Erik Hamren, who remains upbeat about his squad despite their collective failure this time around.

France still have some bridge building to do with the French public after their behaviour at the 2010 World Cup and a decent victory over the Swedes to seal qualification would go a long way.

They are now unbeaten in 23 matches and if that becomes 24 on Tuesday then Laurent Blanc’s men will have achieved the first part of their aim this summer (France 7/1 – Tournament Outright).

Winning the group is vital for the long-term prospects of the side as it would probably mean avoiding Spain in the quarter-finals and so three points will be the target for the 2000 champions.

There have already been a few shocks this summer and Blanc will be keeping his fingers crossed that his men are not involved in another one.

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Croatia can cause Spain problems

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Croatia have been one of the surprise packages in Euro 2012 so far and at 25/1, still look good value to lift the trophy. But Slaven Bilic’s men will face their toughest test yet on Monday, when they face defending champions Spain in Gdansk.

Group C was expected by many to be a stroll to the quarter-finals for Spain and Italy, but Croatia have made people sit up and take notice, with four points from their opening two games.

A 3-1 win over the Republic of Ireland was impressive but equally so was the way they battled back from a goal down to Italy, to claim what looks like a valuable point. Bilic is one of the few coaches to play with two main strikers and that has paid dividends to date for Croatia (9/2 Group C Winner).

Mario Mandzukic is the joint top scorer in tournament, with three goals, and although he picked up a knock in the draw with the Azzurri, he is expected to start the final group game. Alongside Everton’s Nikica Jelavic, the Wolfsburg frontman (10/1 Euro 2012 Top Goalscorer) has been part of arguably the most threatening strike force in the tournament.

Luka Modric’s play-making performances in midfield have also been lorded, while Ivan Rakitic looks a real threat breaking from the middle of the park.

Those two will have to be at the top of their game though if they are to out perform the best midfield in the tournament. Spain’s Xavi, Xabi Alonso, Andreas Iniesta and David Silva are still the benchmark for opponents and they will again try to pull the strings in the middle of the park.

Despite firing in four goals in a comfortable win over the Irish, they still don’t convince everyone that they have the cutting edge to make history and collect a third major championship in a row.

It’s far too early to say Fernando Torres (11/8 To Score At Anytime) is back to his best and Vicente Del Bosque’s decision to play without a striker against Italy indicates he is not confident that he has a major weapon up front.

A big question from their second match remains – were Spain that good or were Ireland that bad? One plus for the world champions was that some of their squad players were given some experience of championship football and didn’t look out of place.

Croatia’s ability to keep possession, as well as pressurising the ball, will test Spain (Match Betting – Croatia 7/1, Draw 15/8, Spain 8/11) and give us a better idea of where both teams are and whether Croatia are a threat when making a shortlist of potential winners in what looks like a wide-open competition.

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Italy to continue Ireland blues

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Like all the other groups at Euro 2012, there is still plenty to play for in Group C and Italy will be desperate to claim all three points to ensure their qualification for the knockout stages when they face the already-eliminated Republic of Ireland on Monday (Italy 2/7, draw 9/2, Ireland 11/1).

So far, all four games in the pool have been absolute crackers but, after both Croatia and Spain beat the Boys in Green, the Azzurri will be expecting a comfortable win.

After a disappointing build-up to the tournament, Cesare Prandelli’s men have quietly impressed in Poland and Ukraine with two solid defensive displays, but will be looking to showcase their attacking prowess when they step out in Poznan.

Italy have often built their success on firm foundations but under Prandelli they have displayed much more offensive tendencies and contain a number of flair players within their ranks.

The most notable of these is perhaps Udinese captain Antonio Di Natale (7/2 first goalscorer) who looks set to start at the Municipal Stadium due to the lingering doubts over the fitness of the enigmatic Mario Balotelli.

Di Natale has been the top Italian striker in Serie A for the last few seasons and despite being relatively small, has the pace and trickery to trouble any defence.

The 34-year-old scored in the 1-1 draw with Spain and with this likely to be his last major championships, he will be desperate to make an impact.

The Irish have had a torrid time at Euro 2012 and, after being easily outclassed by both Croatia and Spain, know that it is now impossible for them to qualify for the quarter-finals.

However, despite their lack of talent, they’re certainly not short of determination and will not be overawed against their illustrious rivals, especially after they won 2-0 in the two sides’ last meeting.

For a number of Giovanni Trapattoni’s players this may well be their international swansong, as the young side that almost beat Spain at their last major tournament appearance in 2002 is starting to look weary and tired.

As usual, their chances of success will probably revolve around the performance of captain and talisman Robbie Keane (10/1 first goalscorer) who has so far remained coy on his plans for the future.

Although he may be past his best, Keane still has the talent to muster something out of nothing and will be desperate to prove he can cut it on the big stage.

However, despite Ireland’s best efforts, Italy should be more than strong enough to overcome them and, although it may be tight early on, fatigue could play a part in the latter stages, which may open the floodgates (Italy 7/1 to win 3-0).

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Germany to finish the job

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Germany take on Denmark in their final Euro 2012 Group B match on Sunday sitting pretty at the top of the table. But, due to the nature of the standings, defeat could still see them crash out of the competition and they will be looking for at least a point to guarantee qualification to the quarter-finals (Denmark 5/1, Germany 7/10. draw 5/2 Match Prices).

The Germans came into the competition with high hopes of going all the way and they have not disappointed to date, with two typically efficient performances to take maximum points.

But they need to finish the job on Sunday as a sequence of results, however unlikely, could end their participation in the summer’s showpiece event.

Defeat to the Danes, coupled with a 2-0 victory for Portugal over Holland would see Joachim Low’s side on the plane home, with thee teams on six points but with the Germans third on goal difference (Denmark 5/2 To Qualify).

While a Portuguese victory is by no means out of the question, Germany are strong favourites to beat Denmark and have already made it clear they will not just play for a point as their result will have a huge bearing on the other teams in the group.

Indeed Netherlands defender John Heitinga has revealed that some of Germany’s players have promised to help the Oranje by beating Denmark, as a 2-0 victory by the Netherlands over the Portuguese, coupled with a German triumph, would see the bottom nation rise to second and, remarkably, take their place in the quarter-finals.

It looks set to be a fascinating and dramatic finale to Group B this weekend with several twists and turns along the way but the one constant is that the Germans will go out and put on a professional display.

Mario Gomez’s brace proved decisive against the Dutch and Low would have loved to rest the Bayern Munich man for the final group encounter had Germany already secured their passage into the last eight but he will probably get the nod up front in a relatively unchanged starting XI.

A couple of early goals would settle the nerves and mean that the coach could rest some of his stars towards the latter stages of the match and it would surprise nobody to see the 1996 winners secure a comfortable win.

The worry for the Germans is if Denmark manage to score first as victory for Morten Olsen’s men will see them through to the last eight.

It is likely they will then park the proverbial bus to try and hang on to what they have and frustrate their illustrious opponents.

The Danes have punched about their weight in Euro 2012 to date and somehow managed to beat Holland despite conceding the majority of the possession.

They were the beneficiaries of some woeful Holland finishing but defeat to Portugal brought them back down to earth.

They are a solid side with few stars but Nicklas Bendtner’s brace almost gave them a point that would have put them in a much stronger position as regards qualification.

But having to rely on the 24-year-old for goals is never a good thing as he has hardly been prolific in his club career to date and chances will be few and far between against Sunday’s opponents.

The Danes are likely to have to score twice to win the match and it is open to question if they have it in them to do that.

Their defence was found wanting against Portugal with both full-backs given the run-around and they will need to tighten up this weekend otherwise it could be their final match this summer.

Despite the possible permutations for the final group standings, it is Germany who hold all the aces and it is almost unthinkable that they will not get the required result to continue their march towards the final.

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Damage done for dozy Dutch

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Sunday brings crunch time in Group B at Euro 2012 and all four nations in the so-called ‘Group of Death’ can still make it through to the quarter-finals stage, with Holland priced up 5/1 ‘To Qualify‘.

It has not been a tournament to remember for the Dutch so far this summer but they can still make it into the last eight although their fate is out of their hands following back-to-back defeats to Denmark and Germany.

Bert van Marwijk and his men know ahead of their clash with Portugal in Kharkiv that they must win the game by a two-goal margin while they also need Denmark to slip to defeat against Germany to get out of jail.

The downside is that Germany will top Group B even if they are held to a draw by the Danes which would then render Holland’s result meaningless.

The Dutch can only focus on their own game, however, and the simple fact is that they need goals in order to take advantage should the other result go their way (Holland 18/1 – To Win 3/1).

History, though, is not on Holland’s side as no side has ever made the knockout stage after losing their first two games, but surely if that statistic is to be overcome then the men in orange have as good a chance as any other side.

Van Marwijk knows he must throw caution to the wind and play an attack-minded side so there might not be a place for destroyer Nigel de Jong, with striker striker Klaas-Jan Huntelaar (9/1 – To Score Two Or More Goals) pushing for a deserved start.

Holland certainly have plenty of creativity on their bench in the shape of Rafael van der Vaart, however they have created chances and would not be in this mess had they been more clinical in front of goal.

The problem facing van Marwijk is that he must go for the jugular yet also be mindful of the likes of Cristiano Ronaldo, Nani, Raul Meireles and Joao Moutinho who will all be bearing down on a Dutch defence that is not the strongest in Poland and Ukraine (Portugal 9/5, draw 11/5, Holland 13/8 – 90 Minutes).

The Portuguese will go through with a win unless Denmark win by a one-goal margin – other than 2-1 and 1-0 – against the Germans who have again demonstrated their prowess at tournament football.

Head coach Paulo Bento may not be presiding over Portugal’s golden generation but this crop is not too shabby and the fact he is set to name the same XI for the fifth competitive game in a row – compared to van Marwijk’s desperate juggling act – means the men from the Iberian peninsula will ge the win and keep their fingers crossed over matters in Lviv.

Portugal are 4/9 to make it to the knockout stage for the fifth European Championships in a row.

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