Graham Hunter La Liga preview: Why Real should out-gun Sociedad but Barca are no gimmes at Villarreal

Posted on January 19, 2015 by SoccerCapper

It’s week two of La Liga and the big guns have very different test as Barca and Real hit the road hoping to match reigning champions Atletico win over Eibar at the Calderón.

Villarreal v Barcelona, Sunday 6pm

Once Villarreal found out how to beat Barcelona for the first time, in April 2003, it began a 14 match run during which Barça only won four times, there were four draws while, both home and away, Villarreal won six.

The golden years of Pep Guardiola saw the contest veer firmly back in favour of the Camp Nou side but the gap has been narrowing over the last three results – two single-goal victories for Barça and a 0-0 draw.

In fact for the good of La Liga and Spanish football in general it’s a terrific time for this test to come around for Luis ‘Lucho’ Enrique’s (below) re-designed Barcelona side.

Luis-Enrique 840

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Their work ethic, during pre-season and in training, is vastly different from the laissez faire days of Tata Martino, the investment in the squad may not have bought premium beef but it’s better than the spam which was often served up last season.

However it’s nice and early for this project to be given a test like the visit to the Madrigal. Uncomfortable even.

Villarreal work with great intensity whether or not they have the ball, they break at speed, they are on the back of two thrilling Europa League results and, importantly, Cani is once again fit and available to add his nous and attacking aggression to the midfield. (He scored against both Barça and Madrid last season but how they missed him in the middle of the campaign when he was out for 12 straight games.)

At the back Villarreal fought Spurs off for Mateo Musacchio, they’ve signed the previously on-loan Sergio Asenjo (who’s good enough to compete for a place in the Spain squad) and it’s just the type of tight pitch and fervent ‘little town’ support to make this the equivalent of a well balanced FA Cup third-round tie.

Luis Suarez Uruguay resize

Above all, Villarreal play football. They are smart, quick, protective of the ball and will attack Barcelona. Six months from now, perhaps even six weeks from now, with all the new signings bedded in, Luis Suárez (above) available, Luis Enrique in greater command of what’s at his disposal you’d feel confident of backing Barcelona.

Right now it’s one of those ‘you never know’ games about which the rest of Spain is crossing it’s fingers. And singing the verse to Yellow Submarine.

Real Sociedad v Real Madrid, Sunday 8pm

Carlo Ancelotti840

Once Real Madrid would confront a visit to the Basque Country, in fact anywhere north of Catalunya, with a shudder of horror.

Defeat would be on the cards and what would be absolutely certain would be a night of Basque hostility, intensity, a test of mental and physical muscles – no quarter given.

Right now, ahead of their trip to the Anoeta this weekend, I’d guess that Carlo Ancelotti (above) Paul Clement and Fernando Hierro are wearing happy little grins.

Rogered in Russia

While Madrid were in Geneva dominating the Uefa gala, basking in the golden glow of adoration and their 10th Champions Cup their opponents on Sunday, Real Sociedad, were being rogered in Russia.

Five hour trip there, big new summer-signing Alfred Finnbogason missing injured, three-goal defeat, out of Europe, newly signed keeper Geronimo Rulli injured and likely out for two months, five-agonising-hour journey home. Welcome to the big(ish) time.

So La Real v Real shapes up as the perfect opportunity for Madrid to add to their ‘racha’ (run) of good results against the blue-and-whites.

It’s a decade since La Real beat Real and in their last six Liga meettings the capital club have pumped 26 goals past their rivals.

Right now the crowd are out of love with La Real, Jagoba Arrasate’s job is under threat, goals are terrifically hard to come by and the Txuri-urdin have lost a key man when they sold Chile’s World Cup keeper, Claudio Bravo to Barcelona.

ronaldo_freekick

Despite Madrid looking a bit slow, lacking in crisp, decisive passing and finishing last weekend there are positives. Ronaldo is nearer to fitness, the fact that Benzema broke his scoring drought against Cordoba and the fact that La Real have had a brutal week directs us towards an away win.

If it’s single-handed resistance you are looking for then think Xabi Prieto: he’s scored five times against Madrid in two recent matches – a 4-3 defeat and a 3-3 draw. And if you go ALL the way back to La Real’s last victory over Los Blancos, in May 2004, who scored two of the goals in the 4-1 away win?

Señor Prieto, that’s right.

You can follow Graham Hunter on Twitter @BumperGraham

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Graham Hunter’s La Liga preview: Real Madrid should sink The Submarine and don’t be surprised to see red when Atletico meet Sevilla

Posted on January 19, 2015 by SoccerCapper

Villarreal [7th] v Real Madrid [5th] – Saturday 3pm

Villarreal 15/4, Real Madrid 4/6, Draw 3/1 – Bet here: Desktop | Mobile

Villarreal wins over Real Madrid come along about as often as a Scottish Independence referendum so it’s very tempting just to vote ‘No!’ here without listening to the debate.
The last time that fabled event took place Manchester City wasn’t even a gleam in Manuel Pellegrini’s eye and Real Madrid still heaped faith and optimism in Lassana Diarra and Royston Drenthe – whatever happened…… Never mind.

It was May 2009, just the second such triumph in their history and only three players from that night, Casillas, Bruno and Cani, can repeat this weekend. Each of them holds the potential to be a major participant.

Carlo Ancelotti (below), right now, is forcing all of us who pay attention to Spanish football to mimic him, in raising our left eyebrows like caterpillars ascending Alpe D’Huez for the Geometrid King of the Mountain’s title. Just over a week ago this most affable of Italian football godfathers began to snap and snarl at people who asked him about the goalkeeping situation. ‘No debate, I’m not getting into all that – Iker is the first team keeper and we won’t be rotating like last season’. Two games later he rotate the keepers.

Or… did he?

Carlo Ancelotti840

With Madrid’s home fans split down the middle over whether to chant in support of San Iker [Saint Iker] or whistle and jeer him, Casillas was left out against Elche. Rotated? Dropped? Keylor came in, did fine but basically had no work. Now Ancelotti says that he will not be playing one keeper in the Bernabeu and another in away matches but will not, either, confirm which of the two will be in the starting XI against Villarreal. [Iker I reckon]

So, what the hell is he up to?

As for Bruno he’s one of the most hard-working, agile and smart midfielders without a high profile in Spanish football. A local boy, he’s someone who could take advantage of the fact that while Toni Kroos is now the ‘organising midfielder’ he does have a tendency to go walkabout.

Then there’s Cani. Rested for Villarreal’s last game, 1-1 at Eibar, he has the aggression, height, know-how and ambition to produce something special on the big occasion, just as he did a year ago on Gareth Bale’s debut, here, in a 2-2 result which ultimately helped cost Madrid the title.

But, don’t ignore the obvious. Ronaldo (below) loves scoring at Villarreal – five in his last four visits – and he’s also hit seven in his last two Liga matches (4/9 to score anytime). The Submarine have three draws a defeat and a comeback win having trailed 0-2 at home to struggling Rayo to show for the weeks after shining in the Europa League qualifying. Imposing themselves and winning is costing them the world at the moment.

Gio Dos Santos is near to return, 20 year old ‘Lucky’ Luciano Vietto scored twice last week to open his account and Uche is working like a dog to supercede his injuries….. but it’ll take a strange twist of events if Madrid don’t add to their wee run of victories, even if at a reduced margin. Ronaldo (4/9 anytime) and Bale (10/11 anytime) to score and see them through.

Ronaldo celebrates

Barcelona [1st] v Granada [8th] – Saturday 5pm

Barcelona 1/8, Granada 20/1, Draw 7/1 – Bet here: Desktop | Mobile

Football is rock n roll, football grabs the senses, puts them in a high rev spin and returns them to you at the end of 90 minutes – football is a Ryder Cup-high every weekend. Football is king of sports. So let me make your adrenalin soar and your pulse rate rip through the Stock Aitken and Waterman hi-energy beats per minute.

Barcelona and Granada had 67% and 59% of possession in their midweek games … and neither team even managed one paltry effort on target. ‘Football, bloody hell’ [© SAF] Barcelona regularly struggle to beat Granada by more than a single goal and they lost to them last season [1-0] in a match where they bombarded the penalty area but could have been there until August without scoring.

More, Barça’s Messi-dependency has grown over the last year and a bit.

Lionel Messi 2013

If he’s on form, either as an assist-giver or scorer, Barcelona will beat most sides and become trophy contenders. If not, and he once again looked sluggish and tired in midweek even before Malága defender Weligton proved that not only can his parents not spell, he can’t read the rules of football [Clue: it’s NOT WWF] they huff and puff.

Does this paint as a possible banana-skin game for the home side?

Granada don’t concede much, they beat the Catalans last season, they’ve a healthy eight point total already and their coach, Joaquín Caparrós is one savvy dude with a wealth of La Liga know-how. Luis Enrique says: ‘I expect a complicated rival. ‘They are very strong defensively. ‘They work hard, they are smart at set pieces and they counter-attack well. ‘This’ll be the same as almost all our games this season’

Mebbe so. I’ve got a slightly different view. Granada not only were beaten at home in midweek [Levante] they were battered the previous game when winning in Bilbao on a day when they could and should have conceded about five. Barcelona were strangled all over the pitch by a super-industrious Malága midweek – it was one of those which looked like 14 men playing 11.

But the first thing which Caparrós targeted in criticising his team’s midweek slump was their intensity. Their work rate, their concentration but above all their intensity.

Iniesta-Spain-v-Ireland

If they repeat that and fail to learn from Malága’s excellence – they’ll be beaten. In Jhon Córdoba (5/1 anytime) and El Arabi (9/2 anytime), Granada have two big, quick strikers capable of running beyond Barcelona’s extremely high defensive line – can Bravo keep his goal secure [none conceded in the league thus far] and head towards a record? He’s 8/13 to keep a clean sheet.

Andrés Iniesta (above) hasn’t shone yet and needs to – this is just the type of game in which he might open his account (2/1 anytime) but Ivan Rakitic, who’ll take some of the free kicks and who’s not scared of a shot from distance, might add to the one he scored last week at Levante (2/1 anytime).

Sandro (10/11 anytime), if he gets more game time, looks a little sharper in front of goal than Munir (4/5 anytime) right now which is worth noting.

Atlético [3rd] v Sevilla [1st] – Saturday 7pm

Atletico 8/11, Sevilla 15/4, Draw 11/4 – Bet here: Desktop | Mobile

Recently this has been a game where the Spanish league has, politely, asked all participants and management to check their holsters, knuckle-dusters, coshes and tasers in with the security guards at a desk outside each dressing room. To merely brand it ill-tempered would be like saying that the Clanton and Earp brothers didn’t turn out to be socially compatible and that the Campbell’s weren’t great neighbours to Clan MacDonald.

The last six games between the sides have been Football at the OK Corral. They’ve produced 37 bookings, nine red cards [six of which have been straight reds] and five penalties. Very nearly a card of one colour or other every eleven minutes. All bar one of the games have been under the control of Diego Simeone (below) and Unai Emery.

simeone_840

But a couple of the game’s bad boys have moved on – Medel, Diego Costa, Filipe Luis for example. More, when this weekend’s ref, Snr Gonzalez Gonzalez was last in charge of the fixture it was like the Peace Games and white doves were released over the stadium at the end.Right in the middle of this run of undisguised ill-feeling he managed to see the 90 minutes through with only six bookings – ie no reds, no penalties. Can this ref keep things calm again?

Rumours that he put bromide in the players’ tea pre-match are quite unconfirmed.

So, this weekend. Sevilla are joint top, two points ahead of Los Colchoneros and Simeone’s side have looked irregular in draws with Celta and Rayo plus that Champions League defeat in Athens. But beware. Over these six back-alley skirmishes there have been 18 goals only five of which were scored by Sevilla who’ve managed no better than two draws and four defeats.

Raul-Garcia-Atletico

Carlos Bacca has been Sevilla’s touchstone for big goals this season [and last] but he didn’t score in either meeting with Atleti last term and was subbed off both times. Is he ready for this intensity this time? Is the slight slackness which Atletico are showing [they went behind against Celta at home last week and then gifted a really stupid penalty for the equalizer] the sniff of an opportunity which the Colombian requires? He’s 12/5 to score anytime if so.

Atletico are still scoring almost all their goals from set plays [six out of seven in the league], the majority headers, so it’s still worth thinking about Raul Garcia (above, 9/4 anytime), Miranda (9/1 anytime) and Diego Godín (8/1 anytime) while for Sevilla, Stephane Mbia (11/1 anytime) just loves a big goal when he arrives late in the box.

Two significant returns. Diego Simeone’s back on the touchline after his ban … will that quieten down the feud or ratchet it up? and Mario ‘Don’t call me the Phantom of the Opera’ Mandzukic is available again thanks to his 65 gram carbon fibre mask to protect his badly fractured nose.

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Graham Hunter’s La Liga Preview: Pop quizzes, Godfather references and a break down of the three biggest games

Posted on January 19, 2015 by SoccerCapper

Valencia (2nd) v Atlético Madrid (3rd) – Saturday 3pm

Win this and Atlético’s last few days will have been like the climactic end-game in the Godfather when Michael Corleone hacks down every single one of his would be rivals.

Both Valencia and Sevilla legitimately have their eye on clawing points from the big three and, who knows, possibly testing Atlético’s chin with a few hooks and jabs across the season. Probe for weaknesses.

But Diego ‘El Cholo’ Simeone was back from his ban last weekend. The man in black walked the line again. Or prowled. Result? Sevilla were ripped to shreds – 4-0.

simeone_840

Midweek Atlético went toe-to-toe with the runaway Italian champions in the Champions League and cut Juve down to size too.
The Tattaglias and Barzinis down. Just Moe Greene left.

Valencia. They shouldn’t be credible for third place but if Peter Lim’s takeover is confirmed and if Jorge Mendes keeps putting his formidable transfer market power at Valencia’s disposal then you never know.

Paco Alcácer has four goals and a goal assist in his last five games while Rodrigo, a Real Madrid youth product, would love to send one into Atlético’s ribs.

They’ll face Miguel Ángel Moyà who’s time as Valencia’s keeper was plagued by both injuries and doubts about his top level mentality – will he fluff his return lines or steal the show?

Atlético continue to produce set-play gems and, importantly, to win the second ball around the box. Both centre backs, Mandzukic, Raúl García and the wonderful Arda all look like scoring value in, potentially, a 2-2 draw.

Valencia 17/10, Atletico Madrid 13/8, Draw 11/5 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

Rayo Vallecano (11th) v Barcelona (1st) – Saturday 5pm

A match between two clubs in a race to see which one can be first to resemble Pep Guardiola’s Barcelona.

The Catalans spent well over €100m in the summer.
Paco Jémez has had to cope with incorporating 17 new players, swapped, borrowed or found down the back of the sofa. You’d think that the visitors might get there first.

But it’s Rayo’s desire to reproduce the best of the Guardiola ideal at Vallecas which tells you this should be a corker of a game.

So successful is Jémez that in 2013 Rayo ended Barcelona’s 317 game run since 2008 when they had always dominated possession. But despite owning the ball for 54% of the time they still lost 4-0.

Rayo don’t have a Petrodollar billionaire owner like PSG but their scouts will have seen the Parisians showing, in winning 3-2 on Tuesday, that if you run at the Blaugrana full backs, if you get quality crosses into the box – fun things can result.

Leo Baptistão has not only scored four times [two off his right foot, one off his left and one header] in two consecutive wins over Athletic and Levante, but he’s precisely the quick footed, hard running striker who might cause danger.

LeoBaptistao

Worth a look for a goal as is Alberto Bueno [Bertie Good] who has four in six and who won the 2006 European U19 Championship with Juan Mata and Gerard Piqué for Spain against Scotland.

Jordi Alba, Andrés Iniesta and Pedro are all notably lacking form for Barcelona who are neither invulnerable nor as intimidating now as they once were.

But Rayo’s attacking, front foot, ‘un-park the bus and drive it through the opposition defence’ will also allow space for Leo Messi, Neymar, Munir and possibly even Xavi who looks fresh and with a free kick goal in him pretty soon.

There should be goals, entertainment and three points for the league leaders despite the whiff of a shock.

Rayo Vallecano 8/1, Barcelona 1/10, Draw 9/2 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

Real Madrid (5th) v Athletic Bilbao (16th) – Sunday 8pm

Okay – quick quiz question. What links multimillionaire Thomas Gravesen, celebrity PSG fan David Beckham and racehorse owner Michael ‘Go on my son’ Owen?

Answer – they all started for Real Madrid the last time Athletic Bilbao won at the Bernabéu.

Nearly a decade ago.

Not a good for anyone who’s tempted to oppose Madrid based on the fact that this is last season’s fourth-placed club meeting the side which finished just a place above them.

And, just like in real life, the news gets worse and worse.

During that decade Madrid [home and away] have scored three or more goals against Athletic on 13 occasions. Defences on top… etc.

Right now the Basque club: sit a point off the bottom three, have only beaten Levante in La Liga, who ARE in the bottom three, this season; was beaten on its last trip to Madrid, ten days ago against Rayo, and its chief goal threat, Aritz Aduriz, has only ever scored once against Los Blancos – four and a half years ago for Mallorca.

gravesen_bilbao

After Athletic lost 2-1 to BATE on Tuesday their coach, Ernesto ‘The Ant’ Valverde savaged them: “We were super-weak, lacking in intensity and virtually unrecognisable”

Madrid, after 15 goals in three league games, centre their concerns around the rampant Cristiano Ronaldo.

He left the Ludogorets midweek win with a sore Achilles, victim of a studding, and thus whether or how he plays is of extreme interest. Last time he was absent for Madrid… they lost.

There is one interesting glimmer for the Basques – that 0-2 win back in February 2005 was coached by Valverde during his first spell in charge.

What’s that? You want another straw to cling to?

Fine. Madrid conceded YET another set piece goal to a header against Ludogorets in midweek, Aduriz’s only goal against Madrid was a header and he’s one of Europe’s finest exponents of the nod to the net.

More? Referee Alex Hernández Hernández in his two seasons in Spain’s elite has been in charge of Madrid three times – and they’ve lost twice.

To Malága and Celta.

And he sent two of Athletic’s opponents off in his first term in the big time.

That aside it looks like Madrid should score three, that Karim Benzema’s on bouncy form and is worth an ‘anytime’ punt [as is Ibai Gomez for the visitors] and that one of Spain’s champions league representatives might even be in a relegation position come late Sunday night.

Real Madrid 1/5, Athletic Bilbao 13/1, Draw 11/2 – Bet Now: Deskop | Mobile

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Graham Hunter’s Sunday La Liga Preview: An angry Diego Simeone and a manager on the verge

Posted on January 19, 2015 by SoccerCapper

ATLÉTICO v ESPANYOL – Sunday, 11am

Three years ago Diego Simeone was roaring Espanyol on in this fixture. I mean ROARING. Glued to his television in Argentina he knew that Gregorio Manazano was on the verge of being sacked and the he was next in line. Espanyol gave Atlético a good rogering, Manzano’s team lost the next one limply and Simeone took over just in time for Christmas. A shedload of trophies, a Champions League final and consecutive wins at the Bernabú later Atlético fans have reason to be thankful [part three] to Espanyol.

However, today, Simeone is roaring AT his players.

It’s a Messianic micro-climate at Atleti. Players believe 110%, GIVE 110% or they can kiss his loyalty [and their place in the team goodbye]. Last time out they were pumped [for fifteen minutes] at Valencia but thereafter played well, might have drawn – but didn’t. In Messianic football environments – under Mourinho, under Guardiola, under Luis Enrique … under Simeone – international breaks are to be feared and hated. Not just for injury, nor tiredness/jet-lag. But because players relax. They see international team mates, they shrug off the harness of club responsibility and often it takes them a week or so to: ‘get in character’ again. [Copyright ® Jules Winfield, our man in Inglewood]

So when he didn’t like Atleti’s training intensity this week their volatile Argentinian leader ripped into them. “Your national teams matter **** all to me. “ANYONE I feel isn’t showing enough attitude and intensity will be dropped, no matter who it is!”

diego simeone, atletico madrid manager

Means it too. So here’s your dilemma. In picking a result which is more likely a) he’s hammered them as a precautionary measure based on the fifteen dozy minutes in Valencia and nearly two weeks away on international duty or b) there’s a serious problem and Espanyol have a serious shout of an upset?

Atleti keeper Miguel Angel Moyà admitted yesterday: “In the dressing room here they’ve warned me that Espanyol’s a team we traditionally find very hard to beat”.

I bet on a). Espanyol are beginning to show stamina and character, Kiko Casilla is in a sweet spot and Sergio Garcia always responds to big games like this. But the champions to edge it, possibly 2-1. Right time for Raúl Garcia and Arda to come to the party.

Atletico Madrid 1/3, Espanyol 10/1, Draw 7/2: Bet Now

DEPORTIVO v VALENCIA – Sunday, 4pm

And on the subject of times gone by….. In 1992 Nuno Espirito Santo met a disco manager in Porto. Name of Mendes, Jorge Mendes. Licensed to sell drinks then. Players now. Four years later Nuno become Mendes’ first client, Depo signed him … and after a decent career here Nuno is – still a client of the, now, most powerful agent in the world, coach of Valencia and about to inflict damage on poor old Depo.

Paco Alcácer can’t stop scoring or making, Valencia play with energy and fluency, Los Che haven’t lost here since 2003 – six wins and two draws making up that record. André Gomes trained apart over the last couple of days but should be fit to emphasize his importance in midfield again. Depo have a decent sized injury list, are rock bottom and defeat could, feasibly, mean ‘Adios’ for Victor Fernandez. If Valencia wish to fulfil their no1 aim of being in the Champions League next season this MUST be an automatic three points for Nuno’s boys. Rodrigo, Alcácer both look like banker scorers but Los Che have ten different players, defence, midfield and attack, who’ve scored in La Liga. Take your pick.

Deportivo 10/3, Valencia 5/6, Draw 5/2: Bet Now

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Graham Hunter’s La Liga Preview: The first El Clasico of the season heralds the return of Suarez and the best of the rest

Posted on January 19, 2015 by SoccerCapper

Real Madrid v Barcelona Saturday 5pm

Given that Barcelona won only 12 times in 74 years away to Real Madrid until 2003 it will come as a shock to the unwary, and the stuff of nightmares to Florentino Pérez, that Madrid have won only five of the last 17 Clásicos at the Bernabéu.

Without wishing to ignore Ronaldinho or Etoo, this is testimony to what the era of Xavi, Iniesta, Puyol, Victor Valdés Messi and Piqué has been like. Strong, talented, unquenchably hungry. But also, centrally, an era where Barcelona have largely dominated possession and Madrid, if their opponents are on form, become positionally ragged.

It’s not the end, yet, but it’s the beginning of the end. Valdés and Puyol are gone. A few weeks ago Xavi would have been an outsider to start based on Luis Enrique’s extremely sparing use of the midfielder. Piqué admitted to me this week that he’s facing the biggest challenge of his career right now. The challenge to keep his place.

Real Madrid lose at home to Barcelona - 2005

These last ten years have seen 33 Clasicos – in La Liga, La Copa, the Supercopa and the Chamipons League. At the Santiago Bernabeu, at the Camp Nou, at La Mestalla.

These behemoth matches have gifted us 112 goals – almost three and a half per game.

At which point I think it’s fair to look at the credentials of the two sides as they approach this particular Clásico. In theory it’s irresistable force v immoveable object.

Madrid [for which read Cristiano Ronaldo] are scoring at an unparalleled rate. Forty three times this season they’ve hit the net [all comps] while ‘immoveable’ Barça [for which read Claudio Bravo] have yet to concede a goal in La Liga.

Put it all together and the ten year, 112 goal stat tells you that more often it’s the force which is irresistible and the object which is moveable. There have only been ten clean sheets in the last 33 meetings between the sides [in fact only 7 scoreless draws since 1928, and there will NOT be one on Saturday]

Which somewhat puts the focus on one of the battles featuring a Clasico debutant this weekend. Claudio Bravo. Excellent so far this season he’s been only partly responsible for the zero goals conceded given that Barcelona have been pressing like Italian farmers during the olive harvest. But he’s produced several key saves.
Something which has been in short supply in his previous meetings with either Real Madrid or Ronaldo.

A Bravo Decision

Claudio Bravo's record versus Real Madrid

Since his debut in 2006 Bravo has:
Played Madrid ten times.
LOST nine
CONCEDED thirty
CONCEDED AWAY fourteen
CONCEDED TO CR7 ten goals in six meetings
WON never.

Doesn’t mean that the horrific run can’t end now that he’s with Barcelona .. but it’s a nasty, nagging thought to carry with you into enemy territory.
His tormentor, Ronaldo took eleven games to score two goals v Barça … and has eleven in thirteen thereafter.

Does Suárez start. Instinct says yes. Football’s conservatism tells you no. The Barcelona players all say he’s ripping it up in training. Luis Enrique seems enchanted with him. He scored two against England in his penultimate competitive match not long after having a surgeon hack about in his knee. He’s remarkable.

But for how long would he last, stamina-wise? Did Pedro do enough against Ajax to correct the impression that he’s been out of form this season.

For Madrid how much does Bale’s absence matter? It’s remarkable that the only Clásico they won last season, the Cup final, was without Ronaldo. That Bale gallop and goal will live long in the memory but won’t be repeated this weekend.

Lionel Messi beats Xabo Alonso

Messi ripped Madrid up again last season – scoring two penalties. An art at which he’s looked increasingly jittery since. Iniesta got the other goal in that stunning 3-4 Barcelona win – he, too, has had an underwhelming season until playing blisteringly well against Ajax.

Worth backing ‘anytime’ are Isco, in his best form at Madrid and very capable of scoring, Benzema who had two in this fixture last season, laid on the opening goal in the Cup final and rocketed a shot off the bar in the Camp Nou Clásico, and Neymar.

In the league last season, only he had as much influence as Messi in Clásicos scoring one, making two and winning a penalty. This season he’s been muscular, quick and much more focussed.

For the ‘over three goals’ mob, I agree. Final score 2-2, Neymar and Benzema, Messi and Isco to feature on the scoresheet.

Real Madrid 7/5, Barcelona 15/8, Draw 5/2: Bet Now

Valencia v Elche, Saturday 7pm

Right, quiz question. You are betting in play, Elche get a penalty against Valencia – what’s gonna happen?

First of all, so long as he’s not been injured or red carded Edu Albacar will take it. His career stat is thirteen out of thirteen converted. “I know there’s likely to be a day when I miss but I want to be able to retire with the boast that I scored every penalty I took”.

In this instance there’s a little bit more of the old ‘irresistable force, immoveable object’.

Diego Alves, recalled to the Brazil squad this week, is back for Valencia having missed the defeat in la Coruña with gastroenteritis. Alves has saved 16 of the 35 penalties he’s faced in Spanish football. Taking into account the couple which have also gone wide or hit the woodwork the stats say that if you face Alves it’s about 50/50 whether you score or not.

Alvaro Negredo is fit again but only makes the bench. Valencia missed their young Portuguese midfielder André Gomes dramatically in that loss to Depo and his return should be influential. Each team won the home version of this match last season – Valencia will do so again this.

Valencia 4/11, Elche 17/2, Draw 7/2: Bet Now

Sevilla v Villarreal, Sunday 6pm

Last time these two teams met here there was a bit of the ‘after you Claude’ feel to the match. Sevilla had the Europa League final in view and Villarreal just needed one point to clinch a return to Uefa competition in their first season after promotion back to La Liga. There was pretty football but few chances, almost no tackles and not a single booking – after the previous two encounters had yielded fifteen yellows and two reds.

Estadio Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan
Europe was on the agenda this week and it might give the narrowest edge to a strong Villarreal away performance. They were at home while thrashing Zurich 4-1 while Sevilla had to fight out a draining 0-0 draw at Standard Liege. The Yellow Submarine more rested as a result – it’s a narrow call. Both Mbia, who should start, and Kevin Gameiro, who’s still finding match tempo after five months out but who should come on in the second half [he has a goal and a shot off the post in his two comeback matches] look nice for a ‘goal anytime’. For Villarreal Gio Dos Santos is the obvious candidate for a goal against the club who helped him kickstart his career after his nightmare at Spurs. Bruno Soriano too, ‘who should definitely be playing for Spain’ according to his manager, Marcelino, is in fine form and might be worth a punt.

Sevilla 21/20, Villareal 5/2, Draw 5/2: Bet Now

Getafe v Atlético Madrid, Sunday 8pm

In theory this should be meat and drink to the Spanish champions. Off the back of potentially their best performance of the season, even including two wins over Madrid, and a short trundle across the Spanish capital to face a team which is neither their footballing nor their physical equal. But Geta’s aggressive Romanian coach Cosmin ‘Don’t You Dare Take A Bad Performance Back Into MY Dressing Rom’ Contra doesn’t agree with me.

“They are under the pressure of having to win all the time to fight to retain their title. “We just want to make it tough for the champions. “See if they have a bad day and we have a good one. “They played differently last season, they’ve brought in 12 new guys and they are still adapting. “They aren’t the same as they were last year”.

Which is just as well given that Getafe lost 9-0 on aggregate to Atleti last year.

For los Rojiblancos the fact that Griezmann finally got a goal having hit the bar, the post, defenders and some invisible forcefield for weeks when shooting at goal might release some of his anxiety and you’d not bet against him adding another. If after his two cracking goals in a minute for Geta to win at the Anoeta on Monday you fancy Abdoul Yoda to repeat the feat just remember that two is the magic number. The most he’s ever scored in a season for Servette Sion or Astra Giurgiu before moving to Madrid. In fact he has ten in all matches since July 2008. So good luck with that.

Getafe 6/1, Atletico Madrid 8/15, Draw 11/4: Bet Now

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Graham Hunter’s La Liga preview: A 4/1 shot that could make the Barcelona v Celta Vigo game more interesting this weekend

Posted on January 19, 2015 by SoccerCapper

Granada v Real Madrid, Saturday 3pm

Joaquin Caparrós is generally a manager who’ll keep a team in a league position above expectations, who isn’t shy about using youth team products and whose work methods are demanding enough that, often, the coaches who come after him at a given club can benefit greatly from a properly-run and motivated environment.

However, if he’s the guy you are looking for to regularly giant-kill Madrid or Barcelona then probably better look elsewhere.

Even at Sevilla and Athletic in eras when, arguably, they might have taken more scalps Madrid would regularly put four or give past his sides and only lose once in a blue moon.

It is sad to say but the impression has grown, over the seasons, that he lacks belief in his own (or his squad’s) capacity to knock over the big guys. Like he’s a little lost in admiration.

Not an impression diminished yesterday when he admitted: “The problem is that Madrid arrive at the top of their form and they are impressive. They’ve so many ways to beat you – via all-out attack, counter-attack, strategic tactics, set plays or individual brilliance. All I ask is that we don’t let them walk all over us.”

Madrid have 11 different scorers this season. Ronaldo’s scored more on his own than most decent teams have this term and the tale of the tape reads: Madrid – Scored 33, Granada – Scored 6.

El Blackoutico! Money-Back if there's a goal inside 15 minutes of Real Madrid v Barcelona

You do the arithmetic. Rested players like Ronaldo, Kroos, Modric Iker, Pepe and Sergio Ramos all return and there’s little to suggest they won’t return from Andalucia with three points and, likely, three more goals. With Liverpool on the horizon you can bet Ancelotti will use all three subs and Chicharito’s goals-to-minutes ratio is very good.

Granada 12/1, Real Madrid 2/9, Draw 5/1 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

Atlético Madrid v Córdoba – Saturday 5pm

Los de Córdoba got a point last week, the equaliser handled into the Real Sociedad net by Newcastle flop Xisco. The goal came with three minutes left and it marked new coach Miroslav Djukic’s debut in charge after succeeding the dreadfully treated Albert Ferrer.

You could cook up an idea that this was a breakthrough moment, if you really, really tried. But the moment will be broken this weekend.

Not only are Córdoba away to the Spanish champions, they catch Atleti in that ‘bear with sore paw’ mood. The Spanish league awards were announced about 12 hours before the Ballon D’Or long lists and los Colchoneros were not only badly ignored, they were treated humiliatingly. Thibaut Courtois, Diego Godin, Miranda, Filipe Luis, Koke, Gabi, Diego Costa – were all completely ignored in the domestic awards and only Courtois, Costa and Diego Simeone are on the FIFA long-lists.

Bet your bottom dollar the ‘we’ll show all of them’ mentality has been stoked up to ramming speed over the last couple of days.

Atleti are being branded ‘violent’ and the fact that 90% + of their goals come from set plays is being mocked and diminished as an achievement. That, too, will fuel their anger.

Djukic likes his team to defend as a block, he’s an intense coach in the very same style as Simeone. But Atleti are beginning to find their tempo, Antoine Griezmann has the monkey off his back via a goal last week, both Godin and Miranda remain good set-piece bets to score and the champions should put Cordoba firmly in place.

Atletico Madrid 1/5, Cordoba 12/1, Draw 11/2 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

Barcelona v Celta Vigo – Saturday 7pm

The last time Celta won away to Barcelona it was two months before the attack on Pearl Harbour, the US hadn’t entered World War II and the Camp Nou was 16 years away from hosting its first match.

Not all that encouraging if you are thinking of putting all your piggy bank savings on the Galicians to inflict only Barca’s second league defeat of the season.

But then there’s the ‘Football, bloody hell!’ factor (© Alex Ferguson)

Banana skins should be yellow-ish, not sky blue like the Celta jerseys – yet perhaps that’s precisely what Celta represent if there are any ‘we’re feeling sorry for ourselves’ feelings left over on the good ship Barcelona after the Clasico mauling.

For starters, this is the club Luis Enrique coached to 9th place last season before answering the calll ‘home’. How traditional it would be for Eduardo ‘Toto’ Berizzo to inspire his squad with: ‘HE thinks he’s too good for you all… YOUR work got him to the Camp Nou and a big fat salary. ‘And he didn’t take any of you with him!! ‘Well, we’ll show that git!!’

It’s the stuff of a thousand team talks. But occasionally it works.

For those who look for ‘signs’ before a shock Barcelona’s apocalyptic horseman in that scenario would be Nolito (4/1 anytime). Raised and trained at the Camp Nou, always promising but almost never given a chance, the striker has been one of those glorious late bloomers.

After joining Benfica he found his goal boots. Now at Celta it was under Luis Enrique that he kicked on again.

Nolito got 14 in 35 last season, he has five in nine this term and Spain’s assistant manager Toni Grande recently admitted that he and Vicente del Bosque are tempted to pick him for the national team when it faces World Champions Germany in Vigo in a couple of weeks’ time.

“We won’t change our style which is to pressure high up the pitch, to try to ‘own’ possession and to attack,” Berizzo promises. “Try to defend at the Camp Nou and the game can feel like it’s eternal.”

No Iniesta for Barcelona, injured, but perhaps the up-side is Luis Suárez’ Camp Nou competitive debut. His stats currently read: two goals, two goal assists in his three matches for his new club. What odds on him hitting the net just to spice up his already extraordinary story?

Meanwhile, Neymar (above) has 11 goals in 11 starts this season – no reason he shouldn’t continue that run. But a risky, nerve-testing match for Barcelona should they be at anything less than their best against Toto’s team.

Barcelona 1/8, Celta Vigo 20/1, Draw 7/1 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

Athletic Bilbao v Sevilla – Sunday 11am

Speaking of the Ballon D’Or … surely the least excusable omission from the managerial long list, particularly as Jose Mourinho is there after a fallow year, is Sevilla boss Unai Emery.

Not only did he coach his side to the Europa League title last season, often playing thrillingly and eliminating 10 opponents to do so, if you take the Spanish league from February until this weekend then Emery’s Sevilla have won the highest points total (54) and currently sit equal top of the league – jointly with Barcelona.

What’s intriguing is that one of Sevilla’s few set backs, as they surged up the league last Spring, as they fell just short of making it into the Champions League was at Athletic.

The Basques were cooking by gas then and rather trampled on a tired Sevilla 3-1 with goals from Susaeta, Iker Muniain and the Manchester United-bound Ander Herrera.

Here’s the rub.

Athletic have had a miserable term and their 1-0 win at Almeria last week was their first three-pointer since August. They’ve only scored six while in midweek Sevilla put out a second XI in the Copa and thrashed Sabadell 6-1 away.

Now Athletic are coached by Ernesto Valverde whose job should be well safe. But it’s an election year in Bilbao and president Urrutia was down watching training on Thursday. He needs to present a winning ticket to the voters in the summer. Unai Emery is a Basque. And successful. IF his Sevilla were to win at the new San Mames then the pressure Valverde is under will increase and the thoughts that Emery could be tempted to come back to the Basque country would too.

Bacca, Aduriz, Gameiro and Iturraspe shape up as worthwhile ‘anytime’ scorers.

Athletic Bilbao 11/8, Sevilla 2/1, Draw 23/10 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

Villarreal v Valencia – Sunday 4pm

Two sides who are huge fun to watch. For Villarreal, given that Castellón won’t come out to play (stuck in the 4th division) this is their local derby match. It’s also a meeting where there are goals – 40 in the last 12 times the Yellow Submarine have played Los Che.

Away wins are also rare, only two ever when Valencia travel the hour journey north, the last one seven years ago.
Valencia are buzzing. Takeover complete, Peter Lim finally in charge and Álvaro Negredo fully fit again. They scored all three goals from set plays last week, four of their last six came this way, and Pablo Piatti, their tiny Argentinian wide-boy, is on the form of his life. He’s created all four of them.

Perhaps given that Villarreal still are without their tremendous, powerful centre half, Mateo Musacchio, and Victor Ruiz won’t play becuase of the €300,000 clause which Valencia put in his contract when selling him to their neighbours, the set-play is something to have a tickle at.

Otamendi, Paco Alcàcer, Dani Parejo and Mustafi all have headed goals for Los Che this season.

Between them the two sides have 23 different scorers this season so one could fancy both teams to score and Valencia to take home no worse than a point.

Villareal 11/10, Valencia 12/5, Draw 12/5 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

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Graham Hunter’s La Liga Preview: Barca bounce back to form, Real run riot and a 12/1 shot

Posted on January 18, 2015 by SoccerCapper

Almería v Barcelona, Saturday 3pm

When Almería manager Fran Rico woke up on Thursday morning he got just about the best news possible.

No, not that Valencia and Sevilla were loaning them back Álvaro Negredo and Aleix Vidal so that the two ex-Almería strikers could get scoring practice against Barça but that the Catalan expedition had been stranded in Amsterdam over night thanks to a broken down plane.

Unlike the board, fans, journalists and players’ families, the team didn’t have to sleep in Schipol airport – being shipped off to a friendly hotel at about 2.20 am.

FRAN-TASTIC NEWS: The Almeria boss will have welcomed Barca’s midweek travel woes

But given the well-known post-Champions League malaise [big team plays midweek, slumps the next weekend] old Frankie Rich [Señor Rico] would have been rubbing his hands in glee.

Iniesta out, two Liga defeats on the trot, Mathieu struggling for fitness, ditto Luis Suárez re match-sharpness – now a broken plane and broken night’s sleep.

But well might he pray.

Barcelona’s functional hotel in down-town Almería is a business and convention centre [the glamour!] and that’s just what they’ll want at the Estadio Juegos Mediterráneos – taking care of business and sticking to convention.

Almería have never beaten Barcelona home or away – that’s the convention.

VERZA OUT OF TUNE: Almeria will need Verza to find his scoring touch to beat Barca

Last season the Andaluz team produced shocks – defeating Atlético, Valencia and Real Sociedad. But here’s the rub. Verza scored four goals across those three big scalp removals but he’s got just one this season.

Of Almería’s three other leading scorers last season, Rodri, Vidal and Oscar Díaz they are now scattered across 1860 Munich, Sevilla and Valladolid.

Defender Oscar Trujillo [Born Madrid 1987] promised to make the game: “Ugly and long” for Barcelona and Almería have been heavily practising corners [from which two of their eight goals have come this season] and free kicks as their main weapons on Saturday afternoon.

An early game after a tiring European trip against a team scrapping for survival and promising to make the game a bit Quasimodo might give you a hunch for Almería upsetting the odds.

But Barcelona showed a new attitude in Amsterdam, worked brutally hard and looked like a side which knew precisely where they’d gone wrong in the previous two matches.

Particularly the moving of Suárez to centre-forward, from right wing, made Barça look potent again. Messi’s movement and form was, suddenly, joyous. I think Luis Enrique’s side might tuck this one away – back Messi [a double], Rakitic and Suárez even if he gets one coming off the bench.

Almeria 14/1, Barcelona 1/5, Draw 11/2 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

Liverpool v Chelsea MBS

Real Madrid v Rayo Vallecano, Saturday 7pm

This is where you have to feel a bit of sympathy for Paco Jémez. A year and a week ago these two clubs met, at the Vallecas, and it was a fabulous contest – 3-2 to Los Blancos. Carlo Ancelotti was so impressed with how Jemez’s team played – tactics, possession, attacking verve, pressing – that he got in touch with the former Spain centre-back and asked if he could come watch Rayo train one day. What an astonishing compliment. Spin it as you like but within a month Madrid were playing 4-3-3, thrilling with their intensity and en route to winning two trophies.

“We’ve got to applaud a team with such an enjoyable playing style” Ancelotti said Friday. “Rayo are a great example of what Spanish football stands for. “Despite fighting against relegation they play well and they play attackingly. “It’s a great thing, very, very positive”.

A RAYO OF INSPIRATION: Madrid’s minnows inspired Ancelotti last season

From that day to this Jemez has had to cope with losing 19 players, signing another 19 [they released or sold 13 in summer 2013 and signed 18 making it a gross turnaround of 71 players in two summers] yet still produce attractive, winning, tactically daring and technically admirable football. That he’ll one day be given charge of one of La Liga’s ‘grand’ clubs must now be a given.

For the moment, how does he cope with the world’s most in-form side?

Madrid-trained Alberto Bueno has a record of a goal every five games in La Primera and hasn’t scored for five so he might be worth a fiver anytime. Leo Baptistao is not only Rayo’s best player but suddenly in touch with the swagger and confidence he lost at parent club Atlético.

But when Los Blanco’s biggest test is how to re-incorporate the fit-again Gareth Bale then you can take it that a] this’ll be a cracker to watch and b] Madrid will hit three +

Rayo haven’t won at city neighbours Madrid since 1996 [their only away win in this fixture] and their scoring at the Bernabéu is a numerical palindrome – scored 15, conceded 51.

Bale will score, count on it, and backing Ronaldo may only be for dummies now given his mildly acceptable 17 goals in 9 league matches but, just for info, he’s got eight in six matches against Rayo.

Real Madrid 1/14, Rayo Vallecano 25/1, Draw 11/1 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

Valencia v Athletic Bilbao, Sunday 6pm

You’d forgive the Athletic players if they take garlic, lucky white heather, silver bullets, wooden stakes, kryptonite, rabbits feet and a bundle of three-leaved clovers [clovii?] to Valencia with them. It’s not that their away record to Los Che is utterly atrocious – just that the Mestalla has been a killing field for their dreams. They’d not been to any cup final for quarter of a century before the Copa Del Rey pitted them with Guardiola’s Barcelona at the Mestalla in 2009. One nil up became 4-1 down – heartbreak for the heart-bustingly proud and noisy Basque support.

VAL-HELLA: Bilbao have endured their fair share of heartbreak at the Mestalla

Aready massively disadvantaged by the loss of ex-Valencia star Aritz Aduriz, Athletic are in search of a lucky break. Aduriz has seven in all comps, without him Athletic have three goals in La Liga. Then when they were fighting for their Champions League lives in midweek a mole popped its head above ground just in time to nod the ball over keeper Gorka’s boot so that Yacine Brahimi could score into an open goal.

As for Valencia they’ve racked up the A-Z of wins. Total domination, wins from a 15 minute power play, wins when they are on the ropes… the sign of a happy, fit, well coached, well stocked team.

Their last three wins have all been by 3-1 [back that correct score again here at 12/1] with Pablo Piatti serving up six goals for team mates in those matches. Valencia have [including an Elche own goal] scored from six set plays in those three games. Shkodran Mustafi [a new German centre half] can’t stop scoring so if Mr Power is dozing this weekend, odds-wise, the stopper is worth a little tickle again at 25/1 as is Sofiane Feghouli who’s back in form. Time for a Paco Alcácer [in the Spain squad] goal too.

Valencia 8/13, Athletic Bilbao 9/2, Draw 14/5 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

Real Sociedad v Atlético, Sunday 8pm

It’s not grim oop north as far as Atleti are concerned. They’ve scored eleven times while winning their last four visits to the Anoeta.

But, this time, it’s got to be an Antoine Griezmann story. Picked up as a hopeful French kid by Real Sociedad when he was nowt but a lad [13] he became far and away their most exciting, most prolific player of recent seasons bagging over a half century of goals … before Atleti came calling. It’s funny, he’d got goals against all La Real’s other major rivals – Athletic, Real Madrid, Barcelona, Sevilla, Valencia. Just not Atlético. But they put a €24m bet on him and although Diego Simeone’s latest comment on him was that he needed to become a ‘more complete’ striker the kid is learning. Four goals in total, two last week in the win over Cordoba – he’d got to be a storybook banker to score on his return ‘home’. “I won’t celebrate if I do..”

TAKE A-NOETA: Real Sociedad’s one home win this season was against Real Madrd

Warning to the Spanish champions? La Real’s only home league win was against … the European champions and they gave them a two goal start.

As for the Basques, they’d like this to be the game before David Moyes takes over. They have a back up plan [Pepe Mel] but it’s the Scot they are determined to persuade. “That Jagoba Arrasate has been sacked is a disaster of our [the players’] making” commented captain Xabi Prieto. Presumably of the football director’s making too – selling Griezmann [sixteen goals last season] and buying Alfred Finnbogason [eight appearances and not a single goal yet]

Griezmann, Koke, Prieto and Raúl Garcia might feature on the ‘goal anytime’ menu for many this weekend.

Real Sociedad , Atlético Madrid, Draw – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

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Graham Hunter La Liga Preview: A potential 10/1 Real Madrid blank and goals all round between Barcelona and Valencia

Posted on January 18, 2015 by SoccerCapper

Málaga v Real Madrid. Saturday 7pm

I’m sure that there are many who have a punt based on superstition, hunches – call it what you will. If you are one of that relentlessly intuitive band of gamblers then you’ll have a cheeky wee fiver on Real Madrid not scoring at Málaga on Saturday at 10/1.

Reason? Carlo Ancelotti’s team has won fifteen straight matches in La Liga, the Champions and Copa del Rey and in doing so they’ve equalled the all-time record throughout Real Madrid’s history.

It’s only happened twice before – under the great Miguel Muñoz in 1960/61 during the Di Stefano, Puskas, Gento era when Los Blancos won five straight European Cups, and under Jose Mourinho in 2011/12.

The Muñoz team had just been knocked out of ‘their’ European Cup by Barcelona and took it out on Liga opponents. Fifteen straight wins. Fifty seven goals in the process.

The Mourinho team ended their run via a 1-3 home defeat to Barça but prior to that won five Champions League matches and ten Liga matches on the trot. Hold on…. fifty seven goals in the process.

THAT’s YOUR LOTTI: Will Real Madrid’s 15 game winning streak come to an end this Saturday? (pic: Inpho)

No, you’ll never believe it. Ancelotti’s fifteen wins on the bounce have yielded … go on, guess. Yes, fifty seven goals.

So if you believe in momentum and the power of a tremendously confident squad led by the irrepressible Cristiano Ronaldo then it’s money on Madrid to win at the Rosaleda and make all-time history.

But if you’re hung-up on signs and numerical patterns then Madrid have won their fifteen games, scored their 57 goals and .. that’s their lot.

A little more help you say? Málaga are sixth, close enough to the pack that if they’d won at Atlético at the weekend they’d have gone fourth equal. Madrid looked laboured for the first time in weeks while winning 1-0 at Basel midweek. Toni Kroos admits: “I’m tired” This should be their first firm test of playing without the injured Luka Modric against a team which knows how to stretch their midfield if they aren’t positionally shrewd. However perhaps the most persuasive factor is that Málaga can’t really afford to have one, never mind three, influential players missing. Amrabat and Juanmi [goals disappearing out the window] are both out injured while in midfield their natty little organiser, Camacho, is suspended.

Last week’s red for Samuel García has been rescinded … but is that really enough to balance out the losses? No, probably
not. Perm from Bale, Ronaldo and Isco, returning to his home ground, to see Madrid through.

PS, for anyone who hasn’t lumped on the league title yet each of the previous 15 game winning runs ended with Madrid winning the title. Hint, hint.

Malaga 8/1, Draw 4/1, Real Madrid 1/3 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

Atlético v Deportivo La Coruña. Sunday 11am

These midday kick-offs are a relative novelty in Spain – a football nation just waking up to the fact that there may, just may, be a reason why the Premier League, with less skill and flair, is economically dominant around the world. Now, key markets [Asia, the Gulf] will watch this game in their afternoon rather than [via Spain’s horrible 9pm Sunday kick-off] in the middle of the night.

There’s a knack to playing these early matches and that’s for Atlético that’s to eat Depo for breakfast.

The champions haven’t lost at home for 26 games [twenty wins, six draws] and it’s over a decade since Depo last took a point at the Calderón on a day when Diego Simeone was on the bench, but as a 75th minute sub rather than as boss.

Also on the same bench that day was Toché – now 31, now playing for Depo and currently their equal top scorer with two. Which tells you just about all that’s needed. Depo have four goals on the road [six games] and twelve all season. Meanwhile during Atlético’s last seven home games they’ve won the lot, scored 23 times and looked increasingly powerful. During that run Mandzukic has five, Griezmann four, Raúl García three, Koke two and Godín two. Cholo Simeone’s reign has been defined by his team winning games like this when Madrid and Barcelona are away from home and there’s just the sniff of an opportunity to close the gap at the top. Take your pick [Griezmann], but back the champs.

Atlético 1/6, Draw 6/1, Deportivo 16/1 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

Valencia v Barcelona. Sunday 8pm

There’s no getting around the fact that, traditionally, this is Apache territory for Barça. Across their decorated history they’ve lost to Valencia at the Mestalla in: the 1961 Inter City Fairs Cup final first leg 6-2; the 1980 Cup Winners Cup quarter final first leg 4-3; the 1999 Spanish Supercup second leg 1-0; the 2000 Champions League Semi Final first leg 4-1, the 2008 Copa Del Rey semi final 3-2. Major defeats. But it was nearly as seismic last season at the Camp Nou when Valencia won 3-2 – three points which if Barcelona had taken, it now transpires, they’d have won the title.

The deduction is that despite Barcelona’s nine goals in their last two games and Valencia’s derby defeat to Levante last week there’s no way that an away win is a ‘gimme’.

Luis Enrique’s team appear to have found their best form of the season, or at least their most clinical finishing. Turgid in the first half against Sevilla last week they erupted via Leo Messi’s record-breaking second half and then trampled all over APOEL in Cyprus. But their manager has a disturbing unwillingness to play the same XI consistently, often changing the midfield and back four.

For Barça two key figures are Gerard Piqué and Messi. The latter has two hat tricks in two matches and appears both electric-quick and happy in his football. The former has put together three games, for Spain v Germany, and the last two club wins, where he’s played with confidence, form and passed the ball superbly.

Perhaps for Valencia it’s Diego Alves and Álvaro ‘the Beast’ Negredo. The keeper reserves his very best form for Barça – I’ve seen him make umpteen indescribably good saves in games where he stands between the Catalans and a humiliation for his side. Negredo scored his last goal in Spanish football against Barcelona [2-0 ahead, 3-2 defeat with Sevilla] and knocked the Blaugrana out of the cup with a goal and an assist for the Andalucians in 2010.

The most intriguing game of the weekend, both teams will score, Negredo will get off the mark, Messi will get another couple, Valencia have the capacity to win but Barcelona’s extraordinary goal power suggests they’ll do no worse than a score draw and quite possibly win 3-2.

Valencia 9/2, Draw 16/5, Barcelona 4/7 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

Sevilla v Granada. Sunday 4pm

The theme here is: ‘define crisis?’. After their defeat in Holland to Feyenoord on Thursday Sevilla, by their demanding standards, feel like they are in free-fall. They’ve won just once in five matches, tumbling from top equal with Barcelona on Matchday 9, to fifth and seven points off leaders Madrid today. In the Europa League if they lose their last group game [at home] to HNK Rijeka the holders will be eliminated.

At which point Granada can assume their Monty Python ‘Four Yorkshiremen’ personality and sneer: ‘That’s nothing! You’ve got it easy … we’d lick the sweat off a tramp’s socks to have it that good’.

Joaquín Caparrós’ team has scored just twice since September and, in fact, seven la Liga players have scored more than Granada’s entire squad this season. No, not just Messi and Ronaldo but guys like Celta’s Larrivey and Sunday afternoon’s threat – Carlos Bacca.

To add to the woes both Riki and Rochina are out injured, further damaging Caparrós’ ability to return to the club he did so much to ‘grow’, and register a needed win. Sevilla have to marshall energy quickly after their defeat in Rotterdam.

Granada’s main problem is their striker El-Arabi who hit twenty goals over the previous two seasons but just one this. Perhaps it’s his moment? For Sevilla Kevin Gameiro’s return isn’t yet yielding the goals he’s due so the responsibility falls squarely on Bacca.

Sevilla 4/9, Draw 10/3, Granada 13/2 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

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Graham Hunter: How a Barca comeback could bag you a 19/1 winner in this week’s La Liga preview

Posted on January 18, 2015 by SoccerCapper

Valencia v Real Madrid – Sunday 4pm

Although you have to be a bit careful with your pronunciation, it’s an inescapable truth that football loves a bit of rancour.

Games with an ‘edge’, ‘bad blood’. Grudges.

Even though the last three Valencia Priméra División titles were won by coaches who were Real Madrid ‘purebloods’ (Alfredo di Stéfano in 1970/71 plus Rafa Benítez in 2001/2 and 2003/4) the animosity felt by Los Che towards Los Blancos has pushed this clash into the bronze medal position behind the Madrid derby and El Clásico. In terms of rancour.

Mestalla Stadium

Aside from two big clubs locking antlers every rutting season the special spice actually stems from the contentious move of Predrag Mijatovic from the Mestalla to Madrid as far back as 1996.

Valencia’s player of the season with 28 goals, and within a few months of becoming runner-up in the Ballon D’Or, he bought himself out of his [1,250 million peseta] contract and moved to the Bernabéu. Title first year, winning goal in the Champions League final the following. Cue increasing Valencian bitterness.

And football fans nurture grudges, keep them warm, hand them down to following generations.

Which is partly why there’s been a big internal debate at Los Che as to whether Madrid should or shouldn’t be given a guard of honour as they run out at the Mestalla on Sunday evening having made themselves World Club champions with their last game of 2014.

Valencia have a code – if their opponents have won the title, the Copa Del Rey or the Champions League they get applauded on to the pitch by Valencia’s players. The temptation, given that the World Club cup isn’t mentioned, was to set a hostile, ‘We’re Valencia, who the hell are you…?’ tone to the match.

Enzo Perez

The home side just spent their equal highest transfer fee to finally buy Enzo Pérez from Benfica [greeted by 8000 fans] and he’ll replace Javi Fuego in midfield.

Just to add to the match’s ‘bite’ it was Valencia’s 2-2 draw at Madrid last May which significantly helped cost Carlo Ancelotti’s mob the title.

For those who treasure numbers more than words six of the last seven of these Liga meetings at the Mestalla have resulted in five or more goals – 35 of them in total. Significantly, the only game in that run which did NOT yield five or more was the last time Valencia beat Madrid at home, 3-0 in 2009 thanks to the impact of Juan Mata, David Silva and David Villa.

Gareth Bale

Ronaldo, of course, and Benzema enjoy scoring against Valencia but if you want to look elsewhere Gareth Bale notched the goal of his career to win the Cup here last season, Isco was trained-up as a kid at the Mestalla but has never scored a Liga goal there while Álvaro Negredo was trained at Madrid and has three wins and four goals in 12 meetings with them since. At stake is Madrid’s run of 22 competitive matches unbeaten plus Liga leadership. Only four, not five, goals this time – and shared too!

Hunter’s Punt:

Gareth Bale to score anytime – evens

Valencia 5/1, Real Madrid 8/15, Draw 3/1 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

Real Sociedad v Barcelona – Sunday 8pm

So, imagine the scenario. Barça goes out for a right good bevvy with the lads on Hogmanay to celebrate the end of a damn awful 2014.

It’s good but wild and on New Year’s day heads are heavy, coffee is needed and there is talk of ‘hair of the dog’. Then Mrs Barça shrieks down the stairs ‘don’t forget you’ve got a game on Sunday’.

‘Who the bloody hell against?’ roars the hungover Barça from the sofa, ‘Just tell me it’s NOT Real Sociedad away … is it? ‘Please don’t let it be them …’

Think of this: across the decades Barcelona have been one of the world’s great clubs, consistently powerful. Yet only twice since the mid 1950’s have they won consecutive matches in San Sebastian.

Anoeta Stadium

No matter the gulf between the sides Real Sociedad somehow consistently come up with wins and draws. The last fifty years have seen only 12 away wins in 52 visits compared to twenty defeats and twenty draws. Indeed they’ve lost three and drawn the other in their last four Anoeta nightmares.

For those who’d like to think of another of those it may interest that neither Neymar nor Messi returned to training until Friday [with Luis Enrique’s permission] which would often be not soon enough to start. Perhaps the Barça coach views that subject totally differently. Equally, while La Real look beatable if Barcelona are on form it’s a stark fact that the Txuri-Urdin have beaten both Real Madrid and Atlético with high-octane performances already this season. The post-break training sessions have seen both Mikel González and Imanol Agirretxe back at work with the group but most attention will centre on whether Carlos Vela is fit to start [80/20].

David Moyes

This has the air of a Jack Spratt and his wife type of match. One of them could eat no fat, the other no lean. Barcelona consistently spend 45-60 minutes looking dull and sluggish in matches then [often] roar away with them or get late winners. On the other hand La Real don’t seem to have massive stamina and regularly start more brightly and then see opponents finishing with a flourish. Tempting to think of the match going lose-win for Barcelona in terms of half-time/full-time.

Hunter’s Punt:

Half-time/Full-time:: Real Sociedad/Barcelona – 19/1

A vital, vital match for the Blaugrana. Should they continue their recent habit of losing here and Madrid win at Valencia then Barça would probably be, at best, one more defeat away from kissing goodbye to the title. In January. Tempting to perm between Luis Suárez, Pedro, Messi [only three of his fifteen league goals away from home and no away goals since week 7 at Rayo], Alfie Finnbogason, Vela and Zurutuza for the goals. Over to ‘Mister’ Moyes.

Real Sociedad 7/1, Barcelona 1/3, Draw 9/2 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

Atlético v Levante – Saturday 3pm

Start the year by backing the champions to settle an old score.

Last May Levante kick-started the ‘just as well we’re wearing brown shorts anyway’ sequence of the La Liga run-in for Diego Simeone’s champions-elect with a 2-0 win – a sequence which saw Atleti squeak home despite only winning two of the last nine points on offer.

simeone_840

That defeat was in Valencia but even the equivalent of this match last season was only a well-contested 3-2 win for Los Colchoneros, causing Simeone to say on Friday:

“Levante are a tough bunch who know exactly how they want to try and play. “It’s a hard test for us and I expect a full, noisy stadium to try and inspire us.”

Stadium-noise and raucous support are usually to be taken for granted at the Calderón – there was a genuine ’12th man’ effect during the title win. But since the hooligan violence before the Depor match and efforts to squeeze the ‘Frente Atlético’ Ultras out there has been a seeping away of atmosphere, almost a divisive feel to the general mood. Perhaps New Year-old sentiments is what the manager most wants.

That, alongside the form they showed last time out in the second half away to Athletic when they hammered the Basques thanks to a Griezmann hat-trick [he’s zero for nine in matches against Levante in his career]. Mario Mandzukic and Koke both return from suspension but Miranda’s not fit and Fernando Torres doesn’t make this squad [paperwork]. Atleti keep on scoring from dead-ball situations so perhaps picking one of them for a first-goal isn’t a bad thought. “Atleti are intimidating at set-plays” admitted Levante coach Lucas Alcaraz before the match.

Gabi

As to the chances of a Gabi goal let’s just tell this straight as a die. Both he and Arda are at risk of missing next week’s huge match at the Camp Nou – a booking and they are suspended. Gabi is also one of 41 charged with fixing a match against Levante back in 2011, a match which saved his team, Zaragoza, from relegation thanks to Gabi’s two goals in a 1-2 win. Streetwise to leave him out for this one against Levante then? Perhaps … but would that be typical of the chin-out, ‘no-one pushes me around’ Cholo Simeone?

Perhaps it’s worth nothing that Levante have never won at the Calderón on league duty and they are third lowest scorers in La Liga, boasting the fine record of having failed to score in eight of their matches. David Navarro is suspended so 38 year-old Juanfran, sent off in this fixture last season, returns. Atleti lost their last home game of 2014. Unthinkable that they don’t put on a show and win by two clear here.

Hunter’s Punt:

Atletico Madrid -1 goal – 4/7

Atletico 1/5, Levante 12/1, Draw 11/2 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

Sevilla v Celta – Saturday 5pm

If you are perverse, if you hate the ‘obvious’ then this profiles as a guaranteed away win. Sevilla are Spain’s only team to get this far in the season unbeaten at home. The reigning Europa League champions haven’t lost at the Sanchez Pizjuan for sixteen matches. Celta, on the other hand, haven’t scored in the league for 575 minutes, losing all but one of their matches since the first day of November. Adding nicely to that stat is the fact that Nolito and Larrivey, authors of 12 of Celta’s 17 Liga goals thus far, are both suspended for this match.

Estadio Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan

So, there you have it. How can Celta possibly lose?

In fact since the Galicians returned to the Primera they’ve three wins and just one defeat to their higher-profile, more successful rivals.

To judge Sevilla’s readiness you’ll have to decide whether you’re a cup half-full/cup half-empty type of punter. Do they have the greatest chance of cobwebs given that they last played on December 14 because their match against Madrid was postponed? Or are they likely to be sharper, rested and fine-tuned, having been back in training since Boxing Day?

A special match for two diehard Celta fans in the Sevilla ranks, Denis Suárez and Iago Aspas, so football history suggests you back one of them for an ‘any-time’ goal. Back from injury, Charles should start up front for the visitors, Fabián Orellana gets the odd goal but for the romantics Borja Iglesias, prodigious in the youth team, debuts in the first team squad and if there’s to be a surprise it’d be kinda cool if he produced it. Form says home win though, perhaps 3-1.

Hunter’s Punt:

Sevilla to win 3-1 – 12/1

Sevilla 4/6, Celta Vigo 4/1, Draw 11/4 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

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Graham Hunter: How a swashbuckling Real Madrid could bag you a 10/3 winner, plus an 18/1 draw double in this weekend’s La Liga preview

Posted on January 18, 2015 by SoccerCapper

Real Madrid v Espanyol – Saturday, 3pm

Madrid are a bit like those of us who say: ‘I’m not a morning person’. Bleary, sluggish – but capable of erupting into a blitzkrieg of action after a wee coffee. The Serena Williams of the football world. Yeah?

At the beginning of the season they were a bit Rip Van Winkle in defeats to Atlético and Real Sociedad, looking short on turbo-power. Lacking a cutting edge. Carlo Ancelotti warned then that these effects were temporary, that his fitness work would click and that the players would impose their class. So it proved. They won five straight in the league hitting 25 goals.

Right now they are suffering similar effects to the early season torpor. The physical and mental demands of setting a record of 22 straight wins, the post Christmas-break sluggishness – these factors affected the last two defeats, 2-1 to Valencia and 2-0 to Atlético in La Copa.

The question is: will that spark return this afternoon?

Carlo Ancelotti

Twice since 2008 Espanyol have popped up with a 2-2 draw at the Bernabéu but generally they are punchbags in this fixture.

Their coach, Sergio González, was co-author of one of the biggest shocks at this stadium, when Deportivo La Coruña won the Copa Del Rey at the Bernabéu beating Real Madrid on the day of their 100th birthday back in 2002. In fact he scored. A repeat would be epic – but also an epic shock.

Sergio García is, by a distance, Espanyol’s best player – European Championship winner with Spain in 2008. Barça-trained as a kid and Catalan to the core he’d presumably fancy augmenting his record of only having scored twice against Los Blancos and not having won once in 15 attempts. Sergio Ramos is rested, Rafa Varane, an out-of-reach Manchester United target, will partner Pepe in defence while Álvaro Arbeloa will keep his place at right back as Carvajal is suspended.

El Blackoutico! Money-Back if there's a goal inside 15 minutes of Real Madrid v Barcelona

Perhaps the most tempting factor is that Cristiano Ronaldo is going to collect another Ballon D’Or trophy on Monday night and, showman that he is, you’d expect him to take personal responsibility for a win with the flurry of goals his game has been lacking for the last month. Madrid to win by a two goal margin (at 10/3), Ronaldo (2/1 to score first) and Varane (15/2 anytime) on the scoresheet.

Get stuck into the latest odds here: Desktop | Mobile

Malaga v Villarreal – Saturday, 5pm

Two happy stories bump heads. Málaga thought they had won the lottery but it all went a bit Viv Nicholson for them as the money which Al Thani promised started to run dry, salaries weren’t paid and a Uefa ban came thumping down on them. The crash and burn effect of such run-ins with sudden wealth can be horrific but, somehow, the seaside club has not only taken the body blow in its stride … Málaga are damn impressive.

Their youth academy has produced them a clutch of terrific young talents, players who not only wear the shirt with extra pride but who have clear, mercurial talent with which the local fans passionately identify – hence the terrific attendances at the Rosaleda. [La Rosaleda holds 30,000 and the average crowd this season is over 25,000]

@Teseo9Javi Welcome to home @MalagaCF pic.twitter.com/rQ0u81IhZr

— Álvaro Fdez Ortega (@ertottimlg) January 5, 2015

Samuel García, Samu Castilejo, Juanpi, Portillo Juanmi and Sergi Darder are all 24 or under and have all spent healthy amounts of time in Málaga’s own youth system. Roque Santa Cruz has moved on so now there’s an emphasis on Nordin Amrabat turning his marauding form into goals … and avoiding injury a bit more.

Villarreal’s verve has been such a refreshing presence in La Liga that their bouncebackability after one season demoted was mega-welcome. Last year was consolidation, this season Marcelino has them playing terrifically attractive football where Denis Cheryshev, Bruno and Luciano Vietto stand out.

The Yellow Submarine have scored in every single one of the 19 games they’ve played since losing 0-2 to Madrid in late September. They have scored in all but one of their 14 away matches this season and Villarreal have fifteen different scorers in all competitions. Málaga have scored in each of their last 14 matches so you might like a ‘both teams to score’ flutter at 4/5

Villarreal’s cavalier attitude cost them a win at Elche last week when from 2-0 up they drew 2-2 so perhaps their heavy programme [eight Europa League matches plus league and cup] is taking a toll. But back them to do no worse than a point in a score draw at 10/3, possibly an away win at 6/4.

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Celta v Valencia – Saturday, 7pm

‘Celta plays good football even though it hasn’t been going well for them over recent matches. ‘They are dynamic, they keep the ball well, they make chances – current results don’t reflect Celta’s real personality’.

Never truer words from Valencia coach Nuno Espirito Santo.

Nuno Espírito Santo respeta al Celta ▶ http://t.co/KSut7kapF3 pic.twitter.com/CANXIW94bB

— AS (@diarioas) January 9, 2015

Celta were good enough to beat Real Madrid at the dog-end of last season, draw at Atlético in September then record their first away win against Barcelona as ‘recently’ as November. After which, you’d guess, their coach Eduardo ‘Toto’ Berizzo must have dropped a consignment of mirrors.

Injuries, errors, bad luck and total confusion amongst his players about what those posts and nets are actually for – that’s been Celta since the win at the Camp Nou.

They are 665 minutes without a league goal. Sixty seconds more and there might be a numerical clue about what’s going on.

Just to torture Toto a bit more Celta remembered how to score in the Copa del Rey, seven in the last thee matches, but completely forgot how to defend in the midweek Cup tie against Athletic Bilbao which they lost 4-2 at home.

Joaquin Larrivey, leading scorer, is still banned as a result of mistaken identity [ref hears insult, ref waves red card, striker suspended for four games despite being innocent party] but at least Nolito is back in the squad after injury.

Joaquín Larrivey se perderá dos partidos de Liga y dos de Copa http://t.co/oxFX5ix3Ya #Comunio pic.twitter.com/Zh5egJeSZ3

— ComunioES Noticias (@EScomunio) December 29, 2014

Two defenders, Cabral and Planas are absent so, as such, Valencia have a chance of maintaining their push for glory with an away win.

But their personality is as changeable as Scottish weather. They thumped champions Atlético in October, then went and waved the white flag at struggling Deportivo in the next game, losing 3-0. They gave Barcelona a chasing one week then barely scrambled a draw at Granada next time out. And Los Che dismantled Rayo in the league on December 13, 3-0, but three days later only drew 4-4 at home against the same side.

Valencia lost in Vigo last season, Charles scoring twice and he is worth a look again having hit the net against Athletic in midweek (15/8 anytime). Álvaro Negredo (23/10 anytime) doesn’t mind a goal against Celta, three in two, and his two goals in twelves matches since signing for Valencia don’t fully reflect his effort, chances or form . Score draw at 16/5 anyone?

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Barcelona v Atletico – Sunday, 8pm

The key is Messi. No change there I hear you say. Fine, but consider this.

Leo Messi’s goal record against Atlético is 17 in 20 matches – not too shabby.

Now factor in the extra data.

It’s seven games since Messi scored against Los Rojiblancos, across two long years.

Do the arithmetic. He treated Atleti like rag-dolls before – scoring 17 times in 13 matches. Since Diego Simeone really got hold of his squad there’s been a total Messi drought.

Correspondingly, Barcelona are now six games without a win against the current Spanish champions – one defeat and five draws. Atleti have got their number and that number is 10. The one on Messi’s back.

Lionel Messi training Argentina

Barcelona are still, theoretically, competitive in this league because of their home form. Away from home they have become limper than a wet dish-rag. In the league at the Camp Nou they are averaging nearly four goals per game but here’s the key – Messi has scored 13 of his 15 Liga goals at the Camp Nou. If Atleti manage to clamp him with their defensive congestion charge then they’ve a chance of a draw or better.

If Messi, as electric and ‘involved’ as at any time this season when orchestrating the 5-0 Copa win over Elche on Thursday, wriggles free then Barça should win and strike a huge blow against the tidal wave of ‘crisis’ headlines which have engulfed them.

681x94_cashout_accas

Little vignettes proliferate across this game. Luis Suárez against his international team-mate Diego Godín should be herculean. Mario Mandzukic’s last visit to the Camp Nou didn’t yield a goal but did give a 3-0 win for his Bayern side – the Croat versus Gerard Piqué will be worth admission money. Ivan Rakitic has three goals in ten matches against Atleti which doesn’t make him prolific but it’s as many as he’s scored against any opposition in his career and it was against Simeone’s team he incurred one of only two red cards in his career. Xavi’s absence may mean the Croat playmaker joins Busquets and Iniesta in the midfield three. Finally, Antoine Griezmann. Again. Opened his account against Levante last week, netting twice having never scored against them previously. He has two goals in his last two meetings with Barça but hasn’t ever scored at the Camp Nou. Take your pick. But the win/lose equation centres on Messi.

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