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Graham Hunter: Barcelona and Real Madrid can overcome tricky tests to set up this 5/2 La Liga acca

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Cordoba v Barcelona – Saturday, 3pm

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How Barcelona, and in particular Luis Enrique, view this game can be judged by the squad. Córdoba are relegated, having scored only 21 goals in their 34 games thus far. While the vast majority of people have been talking about Spain’s neck-and-neck run-in for the title this has been considered a ‘gimme’. Turn up, look at the ball-to-flag distance and collect the three points without having to putt.

Not Lucho. He sees a dogged rival in Real Madrid. He expects them to win at Sevilla. He sees a Córdoba free of any responsibility in this game, free to run till they drop and take risks if they choose too. He sees a Córdoba incapable of winning often but capable of only single goal defeats here to Valencia, Athletic Bilbao and Real Madrid.

Thus despite the midweek visit of Bayern Munich to the Camp Nou, despite the tantalizing prospect of reaching the Champions League final in his first season the Asturian coach has named every one of his important first team players – not choosing to rest or protect one of them. Thus he chooses from: Ter Stegen, C. Bravo, Piqué, Rakitic, Busquets, Xavi, Pedro, Iniesta, Suárez, Messi, Neymar, Rafinha, Mascherano, Bartra, Alba Adriano, Alves Mathieu.

There’s a decent likelihood that Messi, Suárez and Neymar start up front although only a banker-bet that two of them do so. Luis Enrique argued on Friday:

“Taking the foot off the pedal now would be like the marathon runner who gets to 24 miles with a record time but then starts to walk. Until we achieve the objectives there’s no relaxing and the objectives are to win the trophies. The league is in play at Córdoba”

It’s all about attitude. If his players repeat that of their coach they’ll win. But might it be a struggle? Feasible. The instinct to save just a little for a midweek Champions League match is often wholly subconscious.
Will Barcelona’s players conquer it? The guide so far this season says: ‘Yes’.
Much is being made of the fact that this is Barcelona’s first Liga visit to Córdoba since an infamous 1-0 defeat, held to have been scandalously reffed, in 1972 – a defeat which cost them the title.

Luis Enrique

I’m fairly sure 43 year old revenge won’t be a motif here, especially given the Cup tie here in 2012 [when Tito Vilanova put out a very strong side and only won 2-0 against the then Second Division side]
Córdoba coach Jose Antonio Romero reckons: “Anything can happen in a one-off game and we can’t take it as the starting idea that we’ll simply lose by 5-0. “I’ve beaten Barcelona in the Juvenil leagues and this is a dream come true”.

If his dream does come true then mark it as one of the biggest shocks in living memory. That would need Ghilas, Fede, Florin or Bebe to score.
Other than that bank on Suárez, Messi, Rakitic or Piqué to see Barcelona through, probably by two.

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Atletico Madrid v Athletic Bilbao – Saturday, 5pm

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The only way to start to eye this up is to state that the confirmed absence of Aritz Aduriz doesn’t mean it’s impossible for Athletic to win at the Calderón – just far, far, far, far, far less likely.

Aduriz, club-trotter, has loved being home after careers at Valencia, Mallorca and Valladolid scoring at much closer to one ever other game compared to one in three the rest of his career.

This season he’s not only been Athletic’s leading scorer by far, he’s a true leader – and appears to be improving technically with every year over thirty which passes.

Ernesto Valverde, shorn of his best player, takes to the Spanish capital: Iraizoz, Toquero, Aurtenetxe, Laporte, San José, Iturraspe, Kike Sola, De Marcos, Bustinza, Iago Herrerín, Iraola, X.Etxeita, Mikel Rico, Gurpegi, Viguera, Guillermo, Unai López, Williams

Hidden in there is the truly forgotten man of Basque football, Gaizka Toquero who scored both in a 0-2 win the last time the Basques took three points at Atleti – back in 2011. I can’t confirm rumours that Valverde asked Matt Le Tissier to stay and play this weekend when he collected his ‘One Club Man’ award at the San Mames at the Basque derby this week.

Simeone can choose from Oblak, Moyá; Juanfran, Miranda, Giménez, Godín, Siqueira, Gámez; Arda, Raúl García, Tiago, Mario Suárez, Gabi, Saúl, Koke; Mandzukic, Raúl Jiménez, Fernando Torres and Griezmann.
Atleti have shown the pain of elimination from the Champions League with some stilted football – but they’ve kept on winning. Look for them to do that again via Griezmann, Mandzukic or Raul García. Should be a cracker, intense, no quarter asked or given – worth watching as well as having a punt on.

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Sevilla v Real Madrid – Saturday, 7pm

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The game of the weekend, potentially even of the season. And these meetings are complete roller-coasters.
Recent seasons have seen regular Sevilla home wins [seven of them since 2003] – this is a place where Real Madrid need to fear going. Yet los Blancos have also recorded two consecutive 2-6 Madrid wins when they made Los Rojiblancos look like cardboard cutouts – in May and December 2011. These are explosive, there are often red cards, the Nervion produces a volcanic atmosphere and it’s survival of the fittest. This time there are so many additional angles it’s hard to know where to begin.

Obviously the foremost is the fact that by kick-off Barcelona may well have increased their lead to five points.
IF they haven’t, IF they don’t dispatch Córdoba, then a win here would put Madrid top and completely in charge of their own destiny. Match Barça’s points from then on and it would be Madrid’s title.

Zidane with Ancelotti

Should Barça have won then this match reverts to being a referendum on whether Madrid have the ‘cojones’ to cling on at the top and force Barcelona to win at the Calderón in a couple of weeks time. Just for the record Madrid led 0-1 here last year and then lost 2-1 to two Carlos Bacca goals – the second of which was created by an utter peach of an assist from Ivan Rakitic who’s now at Barcelona.
Ironic. [NB it’s the same referee this weekend as then]

The other key thing which hangs on this match is that Valencia dropped two points in midweek at Rayo meaning that they and Sevilla are tied for the fourth Champions League place – separated only by Valencia’s favourable head-to-head. Unai Emery’s team need to keep on winning – starting here. A massive Uefa cash-pot is at stake.
It’s fifteen months and since they lost at home and their 41 points at the Sánchez Pizjuán is their second best ever – six off the all time record set in 2006. Two more points and they’ll have reached their highest ever Primera points total.

To the game. Sevilla kept Trémoulinas, Reyes, Mbia and Bacca clear of a booking at Eibar so all are free to play with Vitolo the only major injury doubt. Ancelotti has Bale back but does he displace Chicharito – all goals and assists in the last few weeks? [Bale on the bench more likely]

It’s tempting to call this a Bacca v Ronaldo shoot-out. The Colombian’s in his best ever season for goals and assists and won this fixture with a brace. Ronaldo has just one in five but his record against Sevilla…. 18 in 12 matches and seventeen of those in the last eight.

Madrid will probably use Ramos in midfield, he loves a headed goal, Sevilla love to nod a couple in themselves and Iker Casillas doesn’t thrive on dealing with an aerial assault. No sitting on the fence – not one of the three available results here would be a surprise, home win, away win, draw.

Perm from Ronaldo, Chicharito, Ramos or Mbia, Bacca, Iborra for your ‘anytime’ goals.
Look for goals galore, best bet a score draw but my guess is that Madrid, just, have the will and the way to keep their title challenge alive.

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Valencia v Eibar – Sunday, 8pm

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Don’t be fooled by the ‘big guys good at home, little guys weak on the road’ narrative here – there’s masses resting on this one. The little Basque team didn’t win hearts and minds earlier this season because they were cute and charming. Not a bit of it.

They played smart, organised football and were worth watching. They are still attempting to play quite nice football but like a first time Iron Man competitor nearing the tape most of their involuntary muscles are threatening to give way. Eibar haven’t won in 16 matches, have taken a single point on the road since mid January.

But the fact remains that they are alive in either a three, or perhaps four, team mini league fighting relegation. It’s between Depor, Almería, Eibar and possibly Levante. The Mestalla looks an unlikely place to unleash the beast inside – but they’ve nothing to lose.Eibar are like the guy in the old joke who takes a bath once a year every year whether he needs it or not.

The’ve scored five times in their last fifteen – a goal every three matches whether they need it or not.
Gaizka Garitano, who’s spent much of the week in the spotlight thanks to walking out of a press conference at Almería due to the moronic behaviour of a couple of local journos, won’t be pleased that Mikel Arruabarrena, probably his most reliable striker, is suspended.

The stress on Valencia to thump the visitors and assure themselves of three points grew exponentially after Los Che dropped two points at Rayo and let Sevilla right back into the race for fourth place.
Nuno Espirito Santo and his guys have been a real breath of fresh air in this league but their continuity depends on reaching the Champions League.

“The result at Rayo wasn’t what we wanted but playing that kind of football makes me sure we’ll win the remaining four matches and I’m not giving up on the fight to finish third”

is Nuno’s message.

Dani Parejo lost us bucks by missing his penalty at the Camp Nou the other week but keeps repaying faith with, by far, his best scoring season ever. Another in midweek. He, Paco Alcácer and Feghouli are all worth consideration – as is the feasibility of Valencia winning by two clear goals. One of these days, I hope, Eibar will convert neat, adventurous play into a win – but at the Mestalla? Doesn’t look likely.

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Espanyol and Barca to draw, Atletico and Real Madrid to win – 9/1

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Graham Hunter: An 8/1 shot and a goal-lovin’ La Liga acca to set up your week

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Deportivo vs Sevilla, Saturday 3pm

Referee J.A. Teixeira Vitienes

Nutty Nigel Farage would like this one – if there was a Spanish UKIP they’d be riveted.

Domestic priorities or European involvement? That is the question.

To explain: Last season Sevilla drew Spanish opponents twice on the way to winning the Europa League.

Of all their ties these were the toughest. Now fate has handed them Villarreal in the Europa League this season.

Last year in that competition Sevilla lost at home [the horror] to hated city rivals Betis – but beat Los Verdiblancos in the second leg then went through on penalties.

They were getting pumped by Valencia in the second leg of the semi final, to the point that, 3-0 down, Los Che had one foot and six toes of the other boot in the Torino final. Until M’Bia popped up with a 94th minute away goal and put Unai Emery’s mob in the final. Which they won.

That was the last Europa League final without direct entry into the Champions League as a by-product prize for the winner.

Right now, Sevilla’s getting into next season’s Champions League via La Liga isn’t totally out of the question – but it’s heavy odds-against because the seven-point gap which Valencia has established on them in fourth to fifth place is augmented by Los Che holding the head-to-head advantage.

Spain works on the ‘how did you do against each other’ rule when it comes to separating teams who finish on equal points. A 1-1 draw at the Nervion on Matchday1 and then a 3-1 home win for Valencia means that the gap is, effectively, eight points with 13 games left.

Thus, with the Europa League last 16 first leg away at Villarreal this Thursday you COULD argue that Emery should put ALL his emphasis on the European match and let a ‘skeleton’ side take care of the Depor test as best they can. 

Rest some stars for the European match because victory in that competition is the better route to the vast Champions League revenue But, sadly, it doesn’t work like that. Valencia could, quite feasibly, lose at Atlético this weekend – meaning that the gap COULD be down to four points by late Sunday night.

Equally, Villarreal [against whom Sevilla play three times in 11 days between Europe and La Liga] are breathing down Sevilla’s neck in sixth.

“The League is our great priority” says Emery. “Depor play well, are FAR better than the first time we played them this season and this kind of match is where you gain your credibility and your form.”

So Emery needs to put out a side to win this match. In fact, this is a game which, against appearances, could drastically alter Sevilla’s season. His squad shows that everybody who’s fit travels: Sergio Rico, Barbosa, Diogo, Coke, Navarro, Arribas, Pareja, Kolo, Krychowiak, Mbia, Iborra, Banega, Vitolo, Reyes, Deulofeu, Denis, Aleix, Bacca, Gameiro, Iago Aspas.

Aspas is just back from injury but as a diehard Celta man would love a goal here. Bacca and Gameiro always present as likely candidates but Iborra and Mbia do pop up in scoring positions. Sevilla have only lost once in eight visits to the Riazor and should be fit to draw or win again. Depor welcome back Cavaleiro wide left and should start with Oriol Riera up front.

Despite three games without scoring the home side DO have the capacity for what would be a mini-shock. But Emery’s various teams have faced Depor ten times – eight wins and two draws for the Basque. That needs to continue. 1-2 (Paddy Power odds: 8/1)

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Athletic-Real Madrid, Saturday 5pm

Referee Undiano Mallenco

How much do you believe in the power of positive emotions? Historically this was a tough place for Madrid. Anti-Spanish sentiments, powerful, aggressive teams, a hostile stadium – Los Blancos have lost significantly more than they’ve won here.

Even a decade ago there was a handful of Athletic wins in a row – but aside from last season’s 1-1 daw it then became like a point dispensary for Madrid. Turn up, take three.

But Athletic have kept a clean sheet in five of their last six League and Cup games, including Wednesday’s thrilling win at Espanyol which put them in the Copa Del Rey final. Again!

Athletic have a throaty, passionate, trophy-hungry support. IF you allowed them they could probably sell 60,000 tickets to the Final against Barcelona on May 30. The natural place to have the game, neutral venue huge capacity, is Madrid’s Bernabéu.

But Florentino Pérez once again fears the prospect of Barça winning and the FC Barcelona anthem/flag soaring high in the air above Madrid’s spiritual home. In 2012 when this arose he posted a ‘Gone Fishing, back in 15 days’ sign on the stadium door, locked up and buggered off so that the Spanish Federation couldn’t host the identical final there. Thus it’ll be this time too.

The stadium will be having it’s ‘once a millennium exorcism’ that day. Or some such. Athletic’s fans can bugger off as far as Florentino’s concerned.

What that guarantees is that Madrid will get an especially hostile, particularly sustained toasting from the Basque crowd – something from which the home side can draw conviction and energy.

Madrid aren’t hitting ramming speed right now – but the pieces are beginning to click again. Ronaldo’s just squeezing out the odd goal, Modric is fit to get some minutes again [although not till Schalke in midweek], Pepe’s return to central defence has liberated the two full backs to move into midfield much more often and Bale is starting to look more focussed, more consistent in his work ethic.

But Athletic have that massive emotional buzz from having reached the final, have suddenly become harder to beat and Aduriz, what an utter gem, is in the middle of a 17 goal season despite having turned 34.

More and more Etxeita is looking like a very, very promising centre half and, generally, there’s a sense of order, stability and purpose.

Do you figure that their form, the fact that their centre forward is scoring [seven in his last eight League and Cup matches] and they are keeping clean sheets narrows the gap in class sufficiently?

NB Athletic have lost eight games at home this season.

A draw wouldn’t shock me but Madrid must still start as narrow favourites.

Ronaldo was sent off here last year, just after making the first goal for Jesé, and once more the spotlight will be on him: goals to save his team or temper to indicate that he’s still frustrated by his form? [He has 14 in 11 league matches against them]

2-2 or 2-3. Should be a cracker. (Paddy Power odds on 2-2: 13/1)

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FC Barcelona-Rayo, Sunday 11am

Referee Gil Manzano

Rayo Vallecano don’t do draws. Sadly they don’t really do defending either.

Twenty three games since they last played in a stalemate – but only two La Liga sides, both of whom are in the bottom four, have conceded more goals.

Thus, if you are going to pick a result here it must be a Barça win – irrespective of that home defeat to Celta a couple weeks ago.

Barça’s Cup semi final in midweek was a net gain – they won to qualify for the May 30 final and Neymar, out of form for several matches, scored twice.

The setback, however, is that Busquets’ ankle damage may keep him out for a month.

Luis Enrique has altered the playing style at Barcelona, such that the team can play more directly, with less filigree in midfield.

But Busquets has remained a key organiser and midfield gatekeeper. His loss is not unimportant.

Either Mascherano or Rakitic can comfortably play in central midfield – how the coach chooses will be interesting.

Rayo have won more on the road than at home, scored almost as many on the road as at home and they have a fluent, quick counter-attacking style which can certainly bother Barcelona in the same manner as Celta [0-1] and Málaga [0-1].

But can they defend, press and harass like those sides? I don’t think so.

Barça have a rare clear week and Luis Enrique can afford to put out something close to his first choice XI because the Man City game [10 days] and Clásico [14 days] are in the distance.

Even though you never know who this unpredictable coach will ‘rotate’ it’d be foolish to ignore that Leo Messi loves the kind of space Rayo will give him or that Luis Suárez has seven goals in his last eight.

‘Outside’ bets would be that occasional scorers Rakitic, Xavi and Rafinha will get game time.

Rayo’s principal threats, Bueno [four last week], Manucho, Baptistão, Trashorras and Kakuta have 22 games against Barcelona between them. All without a goal. Barça to win by three or more.

(Paddy Power odds on Barca to win by three goals: 7/2) 

  • Match betting

Atlético-Valencia, Sunday 8pm

Referee Jaime Latre

Both these sides can play – superbly when things click for them.

But there’s another side to this match. Particularly given the fact that Valencia have added to the tension by sneaking up to within a point of the champions in third place.

Between them these sides have seen 14 red cards this season [seven each] – suspensions have come thick and fast and this time it’s advantage Valencia.

Miranda and Antoine Griezmann are both out because of bookings last week, something which Cholo Simeone could certainly have done without.

The Argentinian is in the midst of a major campaign from his club to extend his contract and their Managing Director called him: ‘our most important player’ last week.

They want to make him the highest paid man at the club, they want a deal which stretches beyond his current limit of 2017. Simeone’s central objective is to stay … IF Atleti convince him of their ambition, their budget and the level of competitiveness.

For all of that it’s imperative that Los Colchoneros continue to play Champions League football next season – something upon which this match can have a major impact.

In the meantime El Cholo and Croatian striker Mario Mandzukic are doing a gentle recreation of how Pep Guardiola fell out with the same Croat last season. Intense, disciplined, ‘my way or the highway’ coach – haughty, sulky, ‘I know better’ striker.

Without Griezmann that may well throw the pressure on Fernando Torres.

Enzo Pérez was Los Che’s big new winter signing – he has six yellows in eight league games. Here’s his view on intensity v dirty.

“Dirty is when you leave the boot into a challenge when you know you’re not going to get to the ball, there’s no place for that.

“Playing  intensely has nothing to do with damaging your opponents. We won’t go out to put the boot in, nor will Atleti. I get booked because I’m in the engine room, cutting out passes, tackling and I do it with fervor. I’m a hot-head, I get after referees – I know it costs me but I’m not going to change.”

Valencia’s strikers lack goals [none of them have more than three] but Parejo is in record scoring form as is Piatti.

For the Champs, Arda, Raúl Garcia, Torres and Mandzukic [if forgiven] need to come to the party.

Atleti have only won 5 of the last 12 home meetings with Valencia in the league and this one paints like a draw … but will no Miranda, no Griezmann possibly tilt it the visitors way?

It’s your call. But expect fireworks. Particularly for Referee Santi Jaime Latre in only his 15th La Liga match during which time he’s averaging over seven bookings per game.

(Paddy Power odds on a draw: 29/10)

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Graham Hunter exclusive: Why La Liga is a two-horse race – but there may be a Cup in the new-look Atletico

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So the joke goes: an anteater walks into a bar wearing an Atlético Madrid scarf and the barman says to him: Why the long odds?.

You can take 14/1 off Paddy Power for los Rojiblancos to defend their title and while it’s probably common sense to offer them as third favourites against the vastly reinforced Barcelona and Madrid – those odds for a defending champion is an unusual sight.

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Particularly after the club splurged it’s greatest ever outlay on a single transfer binge – touching €98m gross once the delayed operation for Ángel Correa (whose heart anomaly needs to be defined and corrected) is completed.

Moreover,  this club, in recent years, must be in the top three of world football for spotting the right players, whether expensive, cheap or free, to be affordable, the right ‘fit’, winners and with a major sell-on value.

They have a fabulous track record over the last four or five years. Fabulous.

Thibaut-Courtois-800

To put flesh on this summer’s bones, manager Diego Simeone has added exciting French winger/second striker Antoine ‘Greased Lightning’ Griezmann, Mario Mandzukic, Correa, Benfica keeper Jan Oblak, Mexican striker Raúl Jimenéz, back-up keeper Miguel Ángel Moya and flying wing-back Guillherme Siqueira.

Of the 14 departures the most significant are Diego Costa, Thibaut Courtois (above), Filipe Luis, Diego Ribas and David Villa.

Putting the squeeze on …

Simeone (below) justifiably enjoys the reputation of a man-manager who is able to squeeze every last drop of attitude and commitment out of his footballers – something which may be handy with Mandzukic.

As such it’s feasible that he can handle the impact of this hemorrhage / transfusion operation of players in and out more quickly and more successfully than most.

The age and quality of their recruits plus the block of important footballers who’ve been retained (Miranda, Godín, Gabi, Koke, Juanfran, Raúl Garcia for example) suggests that there might be a trophy in Atlético.

Also that they should be capable of doing some damage to the ‘big two’ in one-on-one situations. But the title? No.

diego simeone, atletico madrid manager

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To me the key is that Atlético won La Liga by a hairsbreadth last season.

Twelve single goal wins (18 across all competitions), clinching the title on the last day at the Camp Nou where just one more goal from Barcelona, in a weak season, would have given them the crown. Hairsbreadth.

Throughout the season they were constantly in debt to Costa for those single-goal victories – winners against Milan, Madrid, Levante and Athletic in Europe, La Liga and the Copa Del Rey are examples. Equally, Courtois saved them over and over and over again.

Up for the Cup …

Good luck to the armada of new strikers and to goalkeeper Oblak.

But it’s just not feasible for them to reproduce what Simeone has lost in a season when there’s been the disruption of 23 moves either in or out. Last summer I tipped Simeone’s lot as likely title winners.

Trust me again when I say nothing better than a cup competition this time around.

Barcelona-800

So, who else outside Los Rojiblancos MIGHT do damage to Madrid and Barça?

Last season was a finger in the eye to the ‘disengage brain and open mouth’ pundits who know nothing about La Liga. ‘Not competitive, two horse blah, blah, yawn, halfwit comment…’ was too often the stereotypical comment.

Beyond Atlético winning the title, Madrid and Barcelona lost points home and away to Levante, Real Sociedad, Granada, Getafe, Elche, Villarreal, Sevilla and Celta Vigo while the clubs who took points off BOTH the big two were Athletic, Osasuna, Valencia and Valladolid.

So 13 clubs were able to trip the big two up. Competitive.

Sadly, I believe, things have changed. Most weeks I’ll go into more depth about the individual clubs who catch the eye in La Liga but suffice to say now: Osasuna and Valladolid have been relegated, Levante, Getafe, Real Sociedad, Athletic, Sevilla, Celta, Atlético have all lost either their best or second best player and/or their manager.

Ronaldo celebrates

Elche and Granada might be around a similar level but won’t be putting their life savings on taking major scalps again while it’s arguable that Villarreal and Valencia might be more competitive this time around.

Madrid and Barcelona will inevitably slip up here and there but I’m convinced that, this season, it actually is a one v one battle to succeed 2014 champions Atlético.

You can follow Graham Hunter on Twitter @BumperGraham

 

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Graham Hunter La Liga preview: Why Real should out-gun Sociedad but Barca are no gimmes at Villarreal

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It’s week two of La Liga and the big guns have very different test as Barca and Real hit the road hoping to match reigning champions Atletico win over Eibar at the Calderón.

Villarreal v Barcelona, Sunday 6pm 

Once Villarreal found out how to beat Barcelona for the first time, in April 2003, it began a 14 match run during which Barça only won four times, there were four draws while, both home and away, Villarreal won six.

The golden years of Pep Guardiola saw the contest veer firmly back in favour of the Camp Nou side but the gap has been narrowing over the last three results – two single-goal victories for Barça and a 0-0 draw.

In fact for the good of La Liga and Spanish football in general it’s a terrific time for this test to come around for Luis ‘Lucho’ Enrique’s (below) re-designed Barcelona side.

Luis-Enrique 840

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Their work ethic, during pre-season and in training, is vastly different from the laissez faire days of Tata Martino, the investment in the squad may not have bought premium beef but it’s better than the spam which was often served up last season.

However it’s nice and early for this project to be given a test like the visit to the Madrigal. Uncomfortable even.

Villarreal work with great intensity whether or not they have the ball, they break at speed, they are on the back of two thrilling Europa League results and, importantly, Cani is once again fit and available to add his nous and attacking aggression to the midfield. (He scored against both Barça and Madrid last season but how they missed him in the middle of the campaign when he was out for 12 straight games.)

At the back Villarreal fought Spurs off for Mateo Musacchio, they’ve signed the previously on-loan Sergio Asenjo (who’s good enough to compete for a place in the Spain squad) and it’s just the type of tight pitch and fervent ‘little town’ support to make this the equivalent of a well balanced FA Cup third-round tie.

Luis Suarez Uruguay resize

Above all, Villarreal play football. They are smart, quick, protective of the ball and will attack Barcelona. Six months from now, perhaps even six weeks from now, with all the new signings bedded in, Luis Suárez (above) available, Luis Enrique in greater command of what’s at his disposal you’d feel confident of backing Barcelona.

Right now it’s one of those ‘you never know’ games about which the rest of Spain is crossing it’s fingers. And singing the verse to Yellow Submarine.

Real Sociedad v Real Madrid, Sunday 8pm 

Carlo Ancelotti840

Once Real Madrid would confront a visit to the Basque Country, in fact anywhere north of Catalunya, with a shudder of horror.

Defeat would be on the cards and what would be absolutely certain would be a night of Basque hostility, intensity, a test of mental and physical muscles – no quarter given.

Right now, ahead of their trip to the Anoeta this weekend, I’d guess that Carlo Ancelotti (above) Paul Clement and Fernando Hierro are wearing happy little grins.

Rogered in Russia

While Madrid were in Geneva dominating the Uefa gala, basking in the golden glow of adoration and their 10th Champions Cup their opponents on Sunday, Real Sociedad, were being rogered in Russia.

Five hour trip there, big new summer-signing Alfred Finnbogason missing injured, three-goal defeat, out of Europe, newly signed keeper Geronimo Rulli injured and likely out for two months, five-agonising-hour journey home. Welcome to the big(ish) time.

So La Real v Real shapes up as the perfect opportunity for Madrid to add to their ‘racha’ (run) of good results against the blue-and-whites.

It’s a decade since La Real beat Real and in their last six Liga meettings the capital club have pumped 26 goals past their rivals.

Right now the crowd are out of love with La Real, Jagoba Arrasate’s job is under threat, goals are terrifically hard to come by and the Txuri-urdin have lost a key man when they sold Chile’s World Cup keeper, Claudio Bravo to Barcelona.

ronaldo_freekick

Despite Madrid looking a bit slow, lacking in crisp, decisive passing and finishing last weekend there are positives. Ronaldo is nearer to fitness, the fact that Benzema broke his scoring drought against Cordoba and the fact that La Real have had a brutal week directs us towards an away win.

If it’s single-handed resistance you are looking for then think Xabi Prieto: he’s scored five times against Madrid in two recent matches – a 4-3 defeat and a 3-3 draw. And if you go ALL the way back to La Real’s last victory over Los Blancos, in May 2004, who scored two of the goals in the 4-1 away win?

Señor Prieto, that’s right.

You can follow Graham Hunter on Twitter @BumperGraham

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Graham Hunter La Liga: Barcelona are toughening up whilst Ronaldo will be toughing it out

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Barcelona v Athletic Club, Saturday 3pm

Ten straight defeats at the Camp Nou and 27 goals conceded plus Leo Messi scoring against them in each of the last six times the sides have met in Barcelona doesn’t present a statistic which suggests there’s any real threat to the Catalans here.

But that ain’t how Luis Enrique sees it. The Barça playing legend hasn’t even tried to return this side to the brand of football it played under Pep Guardiola – their visions are similar but not identical.

However, like Guardiola did in his day, he has taken football’s equivalent of a cattle-prod and galvanised a completely different attitude around the Camp Nou and the Joan Gamper training ground. Not only is there a greater intensity and ferocity about daily work it’s beginning to show that everyone, Messi included, realizes that this coach will drop anyone who’s not fully committed and concentrated. Witness Messi racing back, robbing the ball and starting the move which led to him creating the goal-assist for Sandro two weeks ago in Villarreal.

Barcelona-800

More, Luis Enrique fears the FIFA/UEFA virus as much as Guardiola ever did. Most managers worry about injuries and jet lag being the main ‘hangover’ effects from the international break. Enrique and Guardiola view it differently. They fear that things are more relaxed with the national teams, that concentration and intensity can be reduced and those ‘lower’ standards can be brought back to the first Liga game after national team appearances. In the brief training sessions with all his forces re-united he’s hammered home the idea that victory against Athletic is utterly vital. The concept of a Madrid derbi draw and three more points for Barcelona to open a healthy lead over the pair of them is what’s on his mind.

Mascherano returns and while Vermaelen is close to playing Mathieu may miss out so that the Argentinian partners Piqué at the back. Andrés Iniesta’s two week break to help him recover from knee pain should leave him in optimum shape so that Barcelona line up: Bravo: Alves, Piqué, Mascherano, Alba: Rakitic, Busquets, Iniesta: Pedro, Messi, Neymar.

Real Madrid v Atlético Madrid, Saturday 5pm

DerbiMadrileno
The fact that Madrid absolutely battered their city rivals three times last year may sink a little further into the background than would be normal ahead of a massive ‘Derbi Madrileño‘. That was in a brutal 5-0 aggregate Copa semi final win earlier this year – a tie which Álvaro Arbeloa’s attempt to physically intimidate Diego Costa probably cost the former his World Cup place once Vicente Del Bosque announced his displeasure at what he’d seen – plus the 4-1 Champions League final victory.

The reason all that might not be taken as the definitive guide is that Atleti, under Diego Simeone, have become a regular thorn in the side for Los Blancos. Jose Mourinho’s last game in charge was the Copa final, at the Bernabéu in May 2013 and Simeone’s men won 2-1. Last season the first Madrid derbi was at Madrid’s stadium and Atleti won 1-0 [Diego Costa scoring in both those triumphs] while this season a late Raúl Garcia goal, from yet another ball into the box which Madrid couldn’t defend, gave Los Rojiblancos the 1-1 platform to go on and win the Supercopa in the second leg at the Calderón [1-0] a couple of days later.

Post that defeat where Mario Mandzukic started what’s become something of a scoring run [two more for his country during the international break] of four in his last four games Sergio Ramos admitted that not only he but all the Madrid team went out [against Atleti!!!] not as focussed, not as ‘up for’ the opening minutes as they should have been. A shocker.

How Madrid cope in midfield, after being completely overrun there in the last hour at the Anoeta, last time out is a key. Will Gareth Bale be dropped back into a three with Kroos and Modric? Will Ancelotti opt for the 4-2-3-1 formation which his squad seems to be crying out for?

Ronaldo celebrates

Ronaldo missed the first half of the defeat to Atleti last month and was excused international duty because of knee pain. But his rehab work has included six hours a day every day and he’ll start, refreshed, for the European Champions. Carvajal is out and that may allow the potentially incendiary return of Arbeloa at right back. Atlético profile as: Moyá: Juanfran, Miranda, Godín, Siqueira; Tiago, Gabi; Koke, Raúl García, Arda; Mario Mandzukic

Ernesto Valverde (Athletic Coach):

“It’s great to have a team which believes it can go anywhere and win. We have all our guys who went away for internationals back fit and only [striker] Guillermo’s back pain is a problem for his fitness. Barcelona might be [as you say] a team which concedes goals from dead ball situations and we are good at scoring from them to the point that our keeper [Gorka] headed in from one this season! “But to score you have to win lots of corners and attacking free kicks which means playing well and earning them. “That’s our goal”.

The Best of the Rest

Celta Vigo v Real Sociedad, Saturday 9pm

La Real deserve to be the team on everyone’s lips this weekend. 2-0 down to 4-2 up against Real Madrid last time out … can they reproduce the last 60 minutes of form in that match at the Balaidos. They’ve lost there once in nine visits and drew 2-2 last season. Coach Jagoba Arrasate and several of his players have hinted sufficiently at a problem that it becomes the main theme. Over the last few days they’ve all talked about needing to show the confidence, aggressive mentality and intensity which can, by hook or by crook, bring away wins.

The idea is pressing high up the pitch and using a four-man ‘diamond’ midfield. Their big money summer signing, Alfredo Finnbogason, has recovered from his shoulder injury but won’t be ready for this match. Carlos Vela, in theory their star player, is finally training fully and is a likely starter in Vigo. Rising star David Zurutuza, superb both in their curtailed Europa League campaign and in the defeat of Madrid, and a valuable source of goals, has a knee problem and will be a doubt until just before the game.

michaelkrohndehli

Celta have only lost two of their 11 home games in 2014 so far and it’ll be interesting to see how new coach Eduardo Berizzo copes with the fact that [already missing Oubiña and Augusto] nine of his men are coming back to the club after international duties of one kind or another. A plus is that one of those, the Dane Martin Krohn-Dehli, trained fully and seems to have overcome knee pain stemming from his performance against Armenia.

Valencia v Espanyol, Sunday 4pm

Even during an international break we’ve had the chance to get to understand Los Che’s new coach Nuno Espírito Santo better. After his promotional visit to Singapore, with Rodrigo and Dani Parejo, to help new [nearly all signed now] owner Peter Lim promote the club the Portuguese insisted on a number of brutal training sessions. A week ago the Valencia squad put in a two hour shift which ended with bleep test sprints. Every last millilitre of water laid out for the training session was drained.

nunoespiritosanto

His concept is that Valencia must become La Liga’s most athletic team, in pressing and in the speed of their attacks. However Thursday’s session couldn’t start until 18.30 because of the 40 degree heat in Valencia and tactics, not stamina, were the priority. Rodrigo should return on the right in a 4-3-3 formation of Alves: Gayá, Otamendi, Vezo, Barragán: André, Fuego, Parejo: Rodrigo, Alcàcer, Piatti. Alcàcer should be on a high, debut goal for Spain and a new contract on the horizon, while Gayá was kicked a number of times on duty with Spain U21 and if he starts he may not play 90 minutes. There’s a real buzz of optimism around the Mestalla now and it’ll be a surprise if Los Che don’t win … although will the last period of match evidence some leg weariness?

Granada v Villarreal, Sunday 8pm

Granada_homeground

The absence of Uche up front for Villarreal is now compounded by the fact that Gio Dos Santos picked up an injury in a friendly with Mexico during the international break and will now miss up to seven games given that he’ll be out for three or four weeks. During the break The Yellow Submarine’s 22 year old Catalan striker Gerard Moreno hit a hat trick against Celtic in a charity friendly [4-2 win] and looks a shoe-in to make his La Liga debut. Unfortunately Granada have the same problem as striker El Arabi returned from Morocco duty injured – Ortuño is likely to be his replacement. While coach Caparrós has been working on correcting defensive errors with Dimitri Foulquier and Allan Nyom, the former missed training on Thursday with a high temperature. New signing Luis Martíns is a likely debutant so long as he passes his delayed club medical.

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Graham Hunter’s La Liga preview: Real Madrid should sink The Submarine and don’t be surprised to see red when Atletico meet Sevilla

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Villarreal [7th] v Real Madrid [5th] – Saturday 3pm

  • Villarreal 15/4, Real Madrid 4/6, Draw 3/1 – Bet here: Desktop | Mobile

Villarreal wins over Real Madrid come along about as often as a Scottish Independence referendum so it’s very tempting just to vote ‘No!’ here without listening to the debate.
The last time that fabled event took place Manchester City wasn’t even a gleam in Manuel Pellegrini’s eye and Real Madrid still heaped faith and optimism in Lassana Diarra and Royston Drenthe – whatever happened…… Never mind.

It was May 2009, just the second such triumph in their history and only three players from that night, Casillas, Bruno and Cani, can repeat this weekend. Each of them holds the potential to be a major participant.

Carlo Ancelotti (below), right now, is forcing all of us who pay attention to Spanish football to mimic him, in raising our left eyebrows like caterpillars ascending Alpe D’Huez for the Geometrid King of the Mountain’s title. Just over a week ago this most affable of Italian football godfathers began to snap and snarl at people who asked him about the goalkeeping situation. ‘No debate, I’m not getting into all that – Iker is the first team keeper and we won’t be rotating like last season’. Two games later he rotate the keepers.

Or… did he?

Carlo Ancelotti840

With Madrid’s home fans split down the middle over whether to chant in support of San Iker [Saint Iker] or whistle and jeer him, Casillas was left out against Elche. Rotated? Dropped? Keylor came in, did fine but basically had no work. Now Ancelotti says that he will not be playing one keeper in the Bernabeu and another in away matches but will not, either, confirm which of the two will be in the starting XI against Villarreal. [Iker I reckon]

So, what the hell is he up to?

As for Bruno he’s one of the most hard-working, agile and smart midfielders without a high profile in Spanish football. A local boy, he’s someone who could take advantage of the fact that while Toni Kroos is now the ‘organising midfielder’ he does have a tendency to go walkabout.

Then there’s Cani. Rested for Villarreal’s last game, 1-1 at Eibar, he has the aggression, height, know-how and ambition to produce something special on the big occasion, just as he did a year ago on Gareth Bale’s debut, here, in a 2-2 result which ultimately helped cost Madrid the title.

But, don’t ignore the obvious. Ronaldo (below) loves scoring at Villarreal – five in his last four visits – and he’s also hit seven in his last two Liga matches (4/9 to score anytime). The Submarine have three draws a defeat and a comeback win having trailed 0-2 at home to struggling Rayo to show for the weeks after shining in the Europa League qualifying. Imposing themselves and winning is costing them the world at the moment.

Gio Dos Santos is near to return, 20 year old ‘Lucky’ Luciano Vietto scored twice last week to open his account and Uche is working like a dog to supercede his injuries….. but it’ll take a strange twist of events if Madrid don’t add to their wee run of victories, even if at a reduced margin. Ronaldo (4/9 anytime) and Bale (10/11 anytime) to score and see them through.

Ronaldo celebrates

Barcelona [1st] v Granada [8th] – Saturday 5pm

  • Barcelona 1/8, Granada 20/1, Draw 7/1 – Bet here: Desktop | Mobile

Football is rock n roll, football grabs the senses, puts them in a high rev spin and returns them to you at the end of 90 minutes – football is a Ryder Cup-high every weekend. Football is king of sports. So let me make your adrenalin soar and your pulse rate rip through the Stock Aitken and Waterman hi-energy beats per minute.

Barcelona and Granada had 67% and 59% of possession in their midweek games … and neither team even managed one paltry effort on target. ‘Football, bloody hell’ [© SAF] Barcelona regularly struggle to beat Granada by more than a single goal and they lost to them last season [1-0] in a match where they bombarded the penalty area but could have been there until August without scoring.

More, Barça’s Messi-dependency has grown over the last year and a bit.

Lionel Messi 2013

If he’s on form, either as an assist-giver or scorer, Barcelona will beat most sides and become trophy contenders. If not, and he once again looked sluggish and tired in midweek even before Malága defender Weligton proved that not only can his parents not spell, he can’t read the rules of football [Clue: it’s NOT WWF] they huff and puff.

Does this paint as a possible banana-skin game for the home side?

Granada don’t concede much, they beat the Catalans last season, they’ve a healthy eight point total already and their coach, Joaquín Caparrós is one savvy dude with a wealth of La Liga know-how. Luis Enrique says: ‘I expect a complicated rival. ‘They are very strong defensively. ‘They work hard, they are smart at set pieces and they counter-attack well. ‘This’ll be the same as almost all our games this season’

Mebbe so. I’ve got a slightly different view. Granada not only were beaten at home in midweek [Levante] they were battered the previous game when winning in Bilbao on a day when they could and should have conceded about five. Barcelona were strangled all over the pitch by a super-industrious Malága midweek – it was one of those which looked like 14 men playing 11.

But the first thing which Caparrós targeted in criticising his team’s midweek slump was their intensity. Their work rate, their concentration but above all their intensity.

Iniesta-Spain-v-Ireland

If they repeat that and fail to learn from Malága’s excellence – they’ll be beaten. In Jhon Córdoba (5/1 anytime) and El Arabi (9/2 anytime), Granada have two big, quick strikers capable of running beyond Barcelona’s extremely high defensive line – can Bravo keep his goal secure [none conceded in the league thus far] and head towards a record? He’s 8/13 to keep a clean sheet.

Andrés Iniesta (above) hasn’t shone yet and needs to – this is just the type of game in which he might open his account (2/1 anytime) but Ivan Rakitic, who’ll take some of the free kicks and who’s not scared of a shot from distance, might add to the one he scored last week at Levante (2/1 anytime).

Sandro (10/11 anytime), if he gets more game time, looks a little sharper in front of goal than Munir (4/5 anytime) right now which is worth noting.

Atlético [3rd] v Sevilla [1st] – Saturday 7pm

  • Atletico 8/11, Sevilla 15/4, Draw 11/4 – Bet here: Desktop | Mobile

Recently this has been a game where the Spanish league has, politely, asked all participants and management to check their holsters, knuckle-dusters, coshes and tasers in with the security guards at a desk outside each dressing room. To merely brand it ill-tempered would be like saying that the Clanton and Earp brothers didn’t turn out to be socially compatible and that the Campbell’s weren’t great neighbours to Clan MacDonald.

The last six games between the sides have been Football at the OK Corral. They’ve produced 37 bookings, nine red cards [six of which have been straight reds] and five penalties. Very nearly a card of one colour or other every eleven minutes. All bar one of the games have been under the control of Diego Simeone (below) and Unai Emery.

simeone_840

But a couple of the game’s bad boys have moved on – Medel, Diego Costa, Filipe Luis for example. More, when this weekend’s ref, Snr Gonzalez Gonzalez was last in charge of the fixture it was like the Peace Games and white doves were released over the stadium at the end.Right in the middle of this run of undisguised ill-feeling he managed to see the 90 minutes through with only six bookings – ie no reds, no penalties. Can this ref keep things calm again?

Rumours that he put bromide in the players’ tea pre-match are quite unconfirmed.

So, this weekend. Sevilla are joint top, two points ahead of Los Colchoneros and Simeone’s side have looked irregular in draws with Celta and Rayo plus that Champions League defeat in Athens. But beware. Over these six back-alley skirmishes there have been 18 goals only five of which were scored by Sevilla who’ve managed no better than two draws and four defeats.

Raul-Garcia-Atletico

Carlos Bacca has been Sevilla’s touchstone for big goals this season [and last] but he didn’t score in either meeting with Atleti last term and was subbed off both times. Is he ready for this intensity this time? Is the slight slackness which Atletico are showing [they went behind against Celta at home last week and then gifted a really stupid penalty for the equalizer] the sniff of an opportunity which the Colombian requires? He’s 12/5 to score anytime if so.

Atletico are still scoring almost all their goals from set plays [six out of seven in the league], the majority headers, so it’s still worth thinking about Raul Garcia (above, 9/4 anytime), Miranda (9/1 anytime) and Diego Godín (8/1 anytime) while for Sevilla, Stephane Mbia (11/1 anytime) just loves a big goal when he arrives late in the box.

Two significant returns. Diego Simeone’s back on the touchline after his ban … will that quieten down the feud or ratchet it up? and Mario ‘Don’t call me the Phantom of the Opera’ Mandzukic is available again thanks to his 65 gram carbon fibre mask to protect his badly fractured nose.

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Graham Hunter’s La Liga Preview: Pop quizzes, Godfather references and a break down of the three biggest games

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Valencia (2nd) v Atlético Madrid (3rd) – Saturday 3pm

Win this and Atlético’s last few days will have been like the climactic end-game in the Godfather when Michael Corleone hacks down every single one of his would be rivals.

Both Valencia and Sevilla legitimately have their eye on clawing points from the big three and, who knows, possibly testing Atlético’s chin with a few hooks and jabs across the season. Probe for weaknesses.

But Diego ‘El Cholo’ Simeone was back from his ban last weekend. The man in black walked the line again. Or prowled. Result? Sevilla were ripped to shreds – 4-0.

simeone_840

Midweek Atlético went toe-to-toe with the runaway Italian champions in the Champions League and cut Juve down to size too.
The Tattaglias and Barzinis down. Just Moe Greene left.

Valencia. They shouldn’t be credible for third place but if Peter Lim’s takeover is confirmed and if Jorge Mendes keeps putting his formidable transfer market power at Valencia’s disposal then you never know.

Paco Alcácer has four goals and a goal assist in his last five games while Rodrigo, a Real Madrid youth product, would love to send one into Atlético’s ribs.

They’ll face Miguel Ángel Moyà who’s time as Valencia’s keeper was plagued by both injuries and doubts about his top level mentality – will he fluff his return lines or steal the show?

Atlético continue to produce set-play gems and, importantly, to win the second ball around the box. Both centre backs, Mandzukic, Raúl García and the wonderful Arda all look like scoring value in, potentially, a 2-2 draw.

  • Valencia 17/10, Atletico Madrid 13/8, Draw 11/5 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

Rayo Vallecano (11th) v Barcelona (1st) – Saturday 5pm

A match between two clubs in a race to see which one can be first to resemble Pep Guardiola’s Barcelona.

The Catalans spent well over €100m in the summer.
Paco Jémez has had to cope with incorporating 17 new players, swapped, borrowed or found down the back of the sofa. You’d think that the visitors might get there first.

But it’s Rayo’s desire to reproduce the best of the Guardiola ideal at Vallecas which tells you this should be a corker of a game.

So successful is Jémez that in 2013 Rayo ended Barcelona’s 317 game run since 2008 when they had always dominated possession. But despite owning the ball for 54% of the time they still lost 4-0.

Rayo don’t have a Petrodollar billionaire owner like PSG but their scouts will have seen the Parisians showing, in winning 3-2 on Tuesday, that if you run at the Blaugrana full backs, if you get quality crosses into the box – fun things can result.

Leo Baptistão has not only scored four times [two off his right foot, one off his left and one header] in two consecutive wins over Athletic and Levante, but he’s precisely the quick footed, hard running striker who might cause danger.

LeoBaptistao

Worth a look for a goal as is Alberto Bueno [Bertie Good] who has four in six and who won the 2006 European U19 Championship with Juan Mata and Gerard Piqué for Spain against Scotland.

Jordi Alba, Andrés Iniesta and Pedro are all notably lacking form for Barcelona who are neither invulnerable nor as intimidating now as they once were.

But Rayo’s attacking, front foot, ‘un-park the bus and drive it through the opposition defence’ will also allow space for Leo Messi, Neymar, Munir and possibly even Xavi who looks fresh and with a free kick goal in him pretty soon.

There should be goals, entertainment and three points for the league leaders despite the whiff of a shock.

  • Rayo Vallecano 8/1, Barcelona 1/10, Draw 9/2 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

Real Madrid (5th) v Athletic Bilbao (16th) – Sunday 8pm

Okay – quick quiz question. What links multimillionaire Thomas Gravesen, celebrity PSG fan David Beckham and racehorse owner Michael ‘Go on my son’ Owen?

Answer – they all started for Real Madrid the last time Athletic Bilbao won at the Bernabéu.

Nearly a decade ago.

Not a good for anyone who’s tempted to oppose Madrid based on the fact that this is last season’s fourth-placed club meeting the side which finished just a place above them.

And, just like in real life, the news gets worse and worse.

During that decade Madrid [home and away] have scored three or more goals against Athletic on 13 occasions. Defences on top… etc.

Right now the Basque club: sit a point off the bottom three, have only beaten Levante in La Liga, who ARE in the bottom three, this season; was beaten on its last trip to Madrid, ten days ago against Rayo, and its chief goal threat, Aritz Aduriz, has only ever scored once against Los Blancos – four and a half years ago for Mallorca.

gravesen_bilbao

After Athletic lost 2-1 to BATE on Tuesday their coach, Ernesto ‘The Ant’ Valverde savaged them: “We were super-weak, lacking in intensity and virtually unrecognisable”

Madrid, after 15 goals in three league games, centre their concerns around the rampant Cristiano Ronaldo.

He left the Ludogorets midweek win with a sore Achilles, victim of a studding, and thus whether or how he plays is of extreme interest. Last time he was absent for Madrid… they lost.

There is one interesting glimmer for the Basques – that 0-2 win back in February 2005 was coached by Valverde during his first spell in charge.

What’s that? You want another straw to cling to?

Fine. Madrid conceded YET another set piece goal to a header against Ludogorets in midweek, Aduriz’s only goal against Madrid was a header and he’s one of Europe’s finest exponents of the nod to the net.

More? Referee Alex Hernández Hernández in his two seasons in Spain’s elite has been in charge of Madrid three times – and they’ve lost twice.

To Malága and Celta.

And he sent two of Athletic’s opponents off in his first term in the big time.

That aside it looks like Madrid should score three, that Karim Benzema’s on bouncy form and is worth an ‘anytime’ punt [as is Ibai Gomez for the visitors] and that one of Spain’s champions league representatives might even be in a relegation position come late Sunday night.

  • Real Madrid 1/5, Athletic Bilbao 13/1, Draw 11/2 – Bet Now: Deskop | Mobile

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Graham Hunter’s Sunday La Liga Preview: An angry Diego Simeone and a manager on the verge

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ATLÉTICO v ESPANYOL – Sunday, 11am

Three years ago Diego Simeone was roaring Espanyol on in this fixture. I mean ROARING. Glued to his television in Argentina he knew that Gregorio Manazano was on the verge of being sacked and the he was next in line. Espanyol gave Atlético a good rogering, Manzano’s team lost the next one limply and Simeone took over just in time for Christmas. A shedload of trophies, a Champions League final and consecutive wins at the Bernabú later Atlético fans have reason to be thankful [part three] to Espanyol.

However, today, Simeone is roaring AT his players.

It’s a Messianic micro-climate at Atleti. Players believe 110%, GIVE 110% or they can kiss his loyalty [and their place in the team goodbye]. Last time out they were pumped [for fifteen minutes] at Valencia but thereafter played well, might have drawn – but didn’t. In Messianic football environments – under Mourinho, under Guardiola, under Luis Enrique … under Simeone – international breaks are to be feared and hated. Not just for injury, nor tiredness/jet-lag. But because players relax. They see international team mates, they shrug off the harness of club responsibility and often it takes them a week or so to: ‘get in character’ again. [Copyright ® Jules Winfield, our man in Inglewood]

So when he didn’t like Atleti’s training intensity this week their volatile Argentinian leader ripped into them. “Your national teams matter **** all to me. “ANYONE I feel isn’t showing enough attitude and intensity will be dropped, no matter who it is!”

diego simeone, atletico madrid manager

Means it too. So here’s your dilemma. In picking a result which is more likely a) he’s hammered them as a precautionary measure based on the fifteen dozy minutes in Valencia and nearly two weeks away on international duty or b) there’s a serious problem and Espanyol have a serious shout of an upset?

Atleti keeper Miguel Angel Moyà admitted yesterday: “In the dressing room here they’ve warned me that Espanyol’s a team we traditionally find very hard to beat”.

I bet on a). Espanyol are beginning to show stamina and character, Kiko Casilla is in a sweet spot and Sergio Garcia always responds to big games like this. But the champions to edge it, possibly 2-1. Right time for Raúl Garcia and Arda to come to the party.

  • Atletico Madrid 1/3, Espanyol 10/1, Draw 7/2: Bet Now

DEPORTIVO v VALENCIA – Sunday, 4pm

And on the subject of times gone by….. In 1992 Nuno Espirito Santo met a disco manager in Porto. Name of Mendes, Jorge Mendes. Licensed to sell drinks then. Players now. Four years later Nuno become Mendes’ first client, Depo signed him … and after a decent career here Nuno is – still a client of the, now, most powerful agent in the world, coach of Valencia and about to inflict damage on poor old Depo.

Paco Alcácer can’t stop scoring or making, Valencia play with energy and fluency, Los Che haven’t lost here since 2003 – six wins and two draws making up that record. André Gomes trained apart over the last couple of days but should be fit to emphasize his importance in midfield again. Depo have a decent sized injury list, are rock bottom and defeat could, feasibly, mean ‘Adios’ for Victor Fernandez. If Valencia wish to fulfil their no1 aim of being in the Champions League next season this MUST be an automatic three points for Nuno’s boys. Rodrigo, Alcácer both look like banker scorers but Los Che have ten different players, defence, midfield and attack, who’ve scored in La Liga. Take your pick.

  • Deportivo 10/3, Valencia 5/6, Draw 5/2: Bet Now

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Graham Hunter’s La Liga Preview: The first El Clasico of the season heralds the return of Suarez and the best of the rest

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Real Madrid v Barcelona Saturday 5pm

Given that Barcelona won only 12 times in 74 years away to Real Madrid until 2003 it will come as a shock to the unwary, and the stuff of nightmares to Florentino Pérez, that Madrid have won only five of the last 17 Clásicos at the Bernabéu.

Without wishing to ignore Ronaldinho or Etoo, this is testimony to what the era of Xavi, Iniesta, Puyol, Victor Valdés Messi and Piqué has been like. Strong, talented, unquenchably hungry. But also, centrally, an era where Barcelona have largely dominated possession and Madrid, if their opponents are on form, become positionally ragged.

It’s not the end, yet, but it’s the beginning of the end. Valdés and Puyol are gone. A few weeks ago Xavi would have been an outsider to start based on Luis Enrique’s extremely sparing use of the midfielder. Piqué admitted to me this week that he’s facing the biggest challenge of his career right now. The challenge to keep his place.

Real Madrid lose at home to Barcelona - 2005

These last ten years have seen 33 Clasicos – in La Liga, La Copa, the Supercopa and the Chamipons League. At the Santiago Bernabeu, at the Camp Nou, at La Mestalla.

These behemoth matches have gifted us 112 goals – almost three and a half per game.

At which point I think it’s fair to look at the credentials of the two sides as they approach this particular Clásico. In theory it’s irresistable force v immoveable object.

Madrid [for which read Cristiano Ronaldo] are scoring at an unparalleled rate. Forty three times this season they’ve hit the net [all comps] while ‘immoveable’ Barça [for which read Claudio Bravo] have yet to concede a goal in La Liga.

Put it all together and the ten year, 112 goal stat tells you that more often it’s the force which is irresistible and the object which is moveable. There have only been ten clean sheets in the last 33 meetings between the sides [in fact only 7 scoreless draws since 1928, and there will NOT be one on Saturday]

Which somewhat puts the focus on one of the battles featuring a Clasico debutant this weekend. Claudio Bravo. Excellent so far this season he’s been only partly responsible for the zero goals conceded given that Barcelona have been pressing like Italian farmers during the olive harvest. But he’s produced several key saves.
Something which has been in short supply in his previous meetings with either Real Madrid or Ronaldo.

A Bravo Decision

Claudio Bravo's record versus Real Madrid

Since his debut in 2006 Bravo has:
Played Madrid ten times.
LOST nine
CONCEDED thirty
CONCEDED AWAY fourteen
CONCEDED TO CR7 ten goals in six meetings
WON never.

Doesn’t mean that the horrific run can’t end now that he’s with Barcelona .. but it’s a nasty, nagging thought to carry with you into enemy territory.
His tormentor, Ronaldo took eleven games to score two goals v Barça … and has eleven in thirteen thereafter.

Does Suárez start. Instinct says yes. Football’s conservatism tells you no. The Barcelona players all say he’s ripping it up in training. Luis Enrique seems enchanted with him. He scored two against England in his penultimate competitive match not long after having a surgeon hack about in his knee. He’s remarkable.

But for how long would he last, stamina-wise? Did Pedro do enough against Ajax to correct the impression that he’s been out of form this season.

For Madrid how much does Bale’s absence matter? It’s remarkable that the only Clásico they won last season, the Cup final, was without Ronaldo. That Bale gallop and goal will live long in the memory but won’t be repeated this weekend.

Lionel Messi beats Xabo Alonso

Messi ripped Madrid up again last season – scoring two penalties. An art at which he’s looked increasingly jittery since. Iniesta got the other goal in that stunning 3-4 Barcelona win – he, too, has had an underwhelming season until playing blisteringly well against Ajax.

Worth backing ‘anytime’ are Isco, in his best form at Madrid and very capable of scoring, Benzema who had two in this fixture last season, laid on the opening goal in the Cup final and rocketed a shot off the bar in the Camp Nou Clásico, and Neymar.

In the league last season, only he had as much influence as Messi in Clásicos scoring one, making two and winning a penalty. This season he’s been muscular, quick and much more focussed.

For the ‘over three goals’ mob, I agree. Final score 2-2, Neymar and Benzema, Messi and Isco to feature on the scoresheet.

  • Real Madrid 7/5, Barcelona 15/8, Draw 5/2: Bet Now

Valencia v Elche, Saturday 7pm

Right, quiz question. You are betting in play, Elche get a penalty against Valencia – what’s gonna happen?

First of all, so long as he’s not been injured or red carded Edu Albacar will take it. His career stat is thirteen out of thirteen converted. “I know there’s likely to be a day when I miss but I want to be able to retire with the boast that I scored every penalty I took”.

In this instance there’s a little bit more of the old ‘irresistable force, immoveable object’.

Diego Alves, recalled to the Brazil squad this week, is back for Valencia having missed the defeat in la Coruña with gastroenteritis. Alves has saved 16 of the 35 penalties he’s faced in Spanish football. Taking into account the couple which have also gone wide or hit the woodwork the stats say that if you face Alves it’s about 50/50 whether you score or not.

Alvaro Negredo is fit again but only makes the bench. Valencia missed their young Portuguese midfielder André Gomes dramatically in that loss to Depo and his return should be influential. Each team won the home version of this match last season – Valencia will do so again this.

  • Valencia 4/11, Elche 17/2, Draw 7/2: Bet Now

Sevilla v Villarreal, Sunday 6pm

Last time these two teams met here there was a bit of the ‘after you Claude’ feel to the match. Sevilla had the Europa League final in view and Villarreal just needed one point to clinch a return to Uefa competition in their first season after promotion back to La Liga. There was pretty football but few chances, almost no tackles and not a single booking – after the previous two encounters had yielded fifteen yellows and two reds.

Estadio Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan
Europe was on the agenda this week and it might give the narrowest edge to a strong Villarreal away performance. They were at home while thrashing Zurich 4-1 while Sevilla had to fight out a draining 0-0 draw at Standard Liege. The Yellow Submarine more rested as a result – it’s a narrow call. Both Mbia, who should start, and Kevin Gameiro, who’s still finding match tempo after five months out but who should come on in the second half [he has a goal and a shot off the post in his two comeback matches] look nice for a ‘goal anytime’. For Villarreal Gio Dos Santos is the obvious candidate for a goal against the club who helped him kickstart his career after his nightmare at Spurs. Bruno Soriano too, ‘who should definitely be playing for Spain’ according to his manager, Marcelino, is in fine form and might be worth a punt.

  • Sevilla 21/20, Villareal 5/2, Draw 5/2: Bet Now

Getafe v Atlético Madrid, Sunday 8pm

In theory this should be meat and drink to the Spanish champions. Off the back of potentially their best performance of the season, even including two wins over Madrid, and a short trundle across the Spanish capital to face a team which is neither their footballing nor their physical equal. But Geta’s aggressive Romanian coach Cosmin ‘Don’t You Dare Take A Bad Performance Back Into MY Dressing Rom’ Contra doesn’t agree with me.

“They are under the pressure of having to win all the time to fight to retain their title. “We just want to make it tough for the champions. “See if they have a bad day and we have a good one. “They played differently last season, they’ve brought in 12 new guys and they are still adapting. “They aren’t the same as they were last year”.

Which is just as well given that Getafe lost 9-0 on aggregate to Atleti last year.

For los Rojiblancos the fact that Griezmann finally got a goal having hit the bar, the post, defenders and some invisible forcefield for weeks when shooting at goal might release some of his anxiety and you’d not bet against him adding another. If after his two cracking goals in a minute for Geta to win at the Anoeta on Monday you fancy Abdoul Yoda to repeat the feat just remember that two is the magic number. The most he’s ever scored in a season for Servette Sion or Astra Giurgiu before moving to Madrid. In fact he has ten in all matches since July 2008. So good luck with that.

  • Getafe 6/1, Atletico Madrid 8/15, Draw 11/4: Bet Now

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Graham Hunter’s La Liga preview: A 4/1 shot that could make the Barcelona v Celta Vigo game more interesting this weekend

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Granada v Real Madrid, Saturday 3pm

Joaquin Caparrós is generally a manager who’ll keep a team in a league position above expectations, who isn’t shy about using youth team products and whose work methods are demanding enough that, often, the coaches who come after him at a given club can benefit greatly from a properly-run and motivated environment.

However, if he’s the guy you are looking for to regularly giant-kill Madrid or Barcelona then probably better look elsewhere.

Even at Sevilla and Athletic in eras when, arguably, they might have taken more scalps Madrid would regularly put four or give past his sides and only lose once in a blue moon.

It is sad to say but the impression has grown, over the seasons, that he lacks belief in his own (or his squad’s) capacity to knock over the big guys. Like he’s a little lost in admiration.

Not an impression diminished yesterday when he admitted: “The problem is that Madrid arrive at the top of their form and they are impressive. They’ve so many ways to beat you – via all-out attack, counter-attack, strategic tactics, set plays or individual brilliance. All I ask is that we don’t let them walk all over us.”

  • Madrid have 11 different scorers this season. Ronaldo’s scored more on his own than most decent teams have this term and the tale of the tape reads: Madrid – Scored 33, Granada – Scored 6.

El Blackoutico! Money-Back if there's a goal inside 15 minutes of Real Madrid v Barcelona

You do the arithmetic. Rested players like Ronaldo, Kroos, Modric Iker, Pepe and Sergio Ramos all return and there’s little to suggest they won’t return from Andalucia with three points and, likely, three more goals. With Liverpool on the horizon you can bet Ancelotti will use all three subs and Chicharito’s goals-to-minutes ratio is very good.

Granada 12/1, Real Madrid 2/9, Draw 5/1 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

Atlético Madrid v Córdoba – Saturday 5pm

Los de Córdoba got a point last week, the equaliser handled into the Real Sociedad net by Newcastle flop Xisco. The goal came with three minutes left and it marked new coach Miroslav Djukic’s debut in charge after succeeding the dreadfully treated Albert Ferrer.

You could cook up an idea that this was a breakthrough moment, if you really, really tried. But the moment will be broken this weekend.

Not only are Córdoba away to the Spanish champions, they catch Atleti in that ‘bear with sore paw’ mood. The Spanish league awards were announced about 12 hours before the Ballon D’Or long lists and los Colchoneros were not only badly ignored, they were treated humiliatingly. Thibaut Courtois, Diego Godin, Miranda, Filipe Luis, Koke, Gabi, Diego Costa – were all completely ignored in the domestic awards and only Courtois, Costa and Diego Simeone are on the FIFA long-lists.

Bet your bottom dollar the ‘we’ll show all of them’ mentality has been stoked up to ramming speed over the last couple of days.

  • Atleti are being branded ‘violent’ and the fact that 90% + of their goals come from set plays is being mocked and diminished as an achievement. That, too, will fuel their anger.

Djukic likes his team to defend as a block, he’s an intense coach in the very same style as Simeone. But Atleti are beginning to find their tempo, Antoine Griezmann has the monkey off his back via a goal last week, both Godin and Miranda remain good set-piece bets to score and the champions should put Cordoba firmly in place.

Atletico Madrid 1/5, Cordoba 12/1, Draw 11/2 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

Fred and Neymar

Barcelona v Celta Vigo – Saturday 7pm

The last time Celta won away to Barcelona it was two months before the attack on Pearl Harbour, the US hadn’t entered World War II and the Camp Nou was 16 years away from hosting its first match.

Not all that encouraging if you are thinking of putting all your piggy bank savings on the Galicians to inflict only Barca’s second league defeat of the season.

But then there’s the ‘Football, bloody hell!’ factor (© Alex Ferguson)

Banana skins should be yellow-ish, not sky blue like the Celta jerseys – yet perhaps that’s precisely what Celta represent if there are any ‘we’re feeling sorry for ourselves’ feelings left over on the good ship Barcelona after the Clasico mauling.

For starters, this is the club Luis Enrique coached to 9th place last season before answering the calll ‘home’. How traditional it would be for Eduardo ‘Toto’ Berizzo to inspire his squad with: ‘HE thinks he’s too good for you all… YOUR work got him to the Camp Nou and a big fat salary. ‘And he didn’t take any of you with him!! ‘Well, we’ll show that git!!’

It’s the stuff of a thousand team talks. But occasionally it works.

For those who look for ‘signs’ before a shock Barcelona’s apocalyptic horseman in that scenario would be Nolito (4/1 anytime). Raised and trained at the Camp Nou, always promising but almost never given a chance, the striker has been one of those glorious late bloomers.

After joining Benfica he found his goal boots. Now at Celta it was under Luis Enrique that he kicked on again.

  • Nolito got 14 in 35 last season, he has five in nine this term and Spain’s assistant manager Toni Grande recently admitted that he and Vicente del Bosque are tempted to pick him for the national team when it faces World Champions Germany in Vigo in a couple of weeks’ time.

“We won’t change our style which is to pressure high up the pitch, to try to ‘own’ possession and to attack,” Berizzo promises. “Try to defend at the Camp Nou and the game can feel like it’s eternal.”

No Iniesta for Barcelona, injured, but perhaps the up-side is Luis Suárez’ Camp Nou competitive debut. His stats currently read: two goals, two goal assists in his three matches for his new club. What odds on him hitting the net just to spice up his already extraordinary story?

Meanwhile, Neymar (above) has 11 goals in 11 starts this season – no reason he shouldn’t continue that run. But a risky, nerve-testing match for Barcelona should they be at anything less than their best against Toto’s team.

Barcelona 1/8, Celta Vigo 20/1, Draw 7/1 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

Athletic Bilbao v Sevilla – Sunday 11am

Speaking of the Ballon D’Or … surely the least excusable omission from the managerial long list, particularly as Jose Mourinho is there after a fallow year, is Sevilla boss Unai Emery.

Not only did he coach his side to the Europa League title last season, often playing thrillingly and eliminating 10 opponents to do so, if you take the Spanish league from February until this weekend then Emery’s Sevilla have won the highest points total (54) and currently sit equal top of the league – jointly with Barcelona.

What’s intriguing is that one of Sevilla’s few set backs, as they surged up the league last Spring, as they fell just short of making it into the Champions League was at Athletic.

The Basques were cooking by gas then and rather trampled on a tired Sevilla 3-1 with goals from Susaeta, Iker Muniain and the Manchester United-bound Ander Herrera.

Here’s the rub.

  • Athletic have had a miserable term and their 1-0 win at Almeria last week was their first three-pointer since August. They’ve only scored six while in midweek Sevilla put out a second XI in the Copa and thrashed Sabadell 6-1 away.

Now Athletic are coached by Ernesto Valverde whose job should be well safe. But it’s an election year in Bilbao and president Urrutia was down watching training on Thursday. He needs to present a winning ticket to the voters in the summer. Unai Emery is a Basque. And successful. IF his Sevilla were to win at the new San Mames then the pressure Valverde is under will increase and the thoughts that Emery could be tempted to come back to the Basque country would too.

Bacca, Aduriz, Gameiro and Iturraspe shape up as worthwhile ‘anytime’ scorers.

Athletic Bilbao 11/8, Sevilla 2/1, Draw 23/10 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

Villarreal v Valencia – Sunday 4pm

Two sides who are huge fun to watch. For Villarreal, given that Castellón won’t come out to play (stuck in the 4th division) this is their local derby match. It’s also a meeting where there are goals – 40 in the last 12 times the Yellow Submarine have played Los Che.

Away wins are also rare, only two ever when Valencia travel the hour journey north, the last one seven years ago.
Valencia are buzzing. Takeover complete, Peter Lim finally in charge and Álvaro Negredo fully fit again. They scored all three goals from set plays last week, four of their last six came this way, and Pablo Piatti, their tiny Argentinian wide-boy, is on the form of his life. He’s created all four of them.

Perhaps given that Villarreal still are without their tremendous, powerful centre half, Mateo Musacchio, and Victor Ruiz won’t play becuase of the €300,000 clause which Valencia put in his contract when selling him to their neighbours, the set-play is something to have a tickle at.

  • Otamendi, Paco Alcàcer, Dani Parejo and Mustafi all have headed goals for Los Che this season.

Between them the two sides have 23 different scorers this season so one could fancy both teams to score and Valencia to take home no worse than a point.

Villareal 11/10, Valencia 12/5, Draw 12/5 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

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