GRAHAM HUNTER: They’ve room to improve but bank on Real Madrid and Barcelona this weekend

Posted on February 21, 2015 by SoccerCapper

Graham’s quick-firebets:

Barcelona to win 3-1 – 9/1
Valencia to win 2-1 – 8/1
Atletico to win 3-2 – 33/1
Real Sociedad to win 2-1 – 9/1
Cristiano Ronaldo to score and Real to win – 8/11

WIN ACCA:
Barcelona, Valencia, Atletico, Real Sociedad and Real Madrid all to win – 15/2

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Barcelona v Malaga – Saturday 3pm

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The standard expression is: A week is a long time in politics.

This weekend should prove that five months is an eternity in football. There was a shocking, shocking stat last time Barça went up against these lads from the Costa Del Sol capital – at La Rosaleda late last September. Luis Enrique’s team not only drew 0-0 but didn’t have a shot on target.

That was then, this is now. Back in September coach Javi Gracia could start with Camacho in midfield and Amrabat up front. Both suspended now from the team which has 66 bookings and five red cards in their 24 League matches. They’ll be missed.

Now Suárez, unavailable in September, is a major force for good in Barça’s ‘Goals For’ column – both those he tucks away and, more impressively still, those he either creates directly via an assist or via the tremendous job he does of taking players away from Messi and Neymar.

@leomessi & @luissuarez9 #igersFCB #FCBarcelona

A photo posted by FC Barcelona (@fcbarcelona) on Feb 15, 2015 at 2:26pm PST

Barcelona have scored 56 times in the subsequent 18 games, are Europe’s form side, bar none, and tend to thump Málaga at the Camp Nou. Not since Louis Van Gaal was the manager in late 1999 the current manager, Luis Enrique, only lasted 61 minutes and previous manager Pep Guardiola only managed 69 minutes have Málaga won at Barcelona. The intervening years are littered with four, five and six goal defeats, just twice has their been only a single goal margin.

Gracia says: “We’ll have to be very, very, very good to take a point but we’ll attack and counter-attack when we can”

So, once again, we probably aren’t debating the result (is my guess) – just its margin.
The visitors’ form has fallen off a cliff. One win in seven league matches since just before Christmas.
It should be a slaughter. But will it?

Take two things into account. Luis Enrique might ‘protect’ Neymar before the City game and Carlos Kameni just loves to thwart Barcelona. The Cameroon keeper has played this lot more times than any other team since arriving in Spanish football and not only won at the Camp Nou with Espanyol he has three 0-0 draws against Barça for Espanyol and Málaga.

Maybe, just maybe, Kameni has one of ‘those’ days, Barcelona hold something in reserve for Lancashire and the win margin is lower than it should be?

Messi has fourteen goals in his last ten matches, 12 in 14 against Málaga over the last ten years. For value have a look at Pedro, Rafinha and Rakitic again – although they are outsiders compared to the Neymar-Messi-Suárez trident which is functioning so well. In fact I spent part of Thursday interviewing a very happy, very confident Suárez. Great goal last week, another this I’d bet.

Graham’s Bet: Barcelona to win 3-1
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Cordoba v Valencia – Saturday 5pm
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You’re probably all too young to remember it but there used to be a US comedy show called ‘Soap’ which, as you may be able to deduce, took the mickey right out of soap-operas. It’s where Billy Crystal made it big. The voiceover at the beginning used to detail who was related to whom, who was doing the dirty with whom, who hated whom, who secretly loved … ok, you get the picture.

The tagline used to be: ‘Confused? You won’t be after this episode of Soap!’ So it is with the sitcom: ‘Suspension!’ at Valencia.

André Gomes is back from suspension, while Enzo Pérez and Antonio Barragán are out because of it. The week before it was Nico Otamendi and Joao Cancelo suspended but now Cancelo will replace Barragán at right back … because he’s, you’ve got it, suspended.

And just to continue the ‘Confused…?’ theme who was it that burned great chunks out of the Cordoba training ground? It’s a mystery, honest it is. But someone took the time to ensure that the team won’t be able to use their training pitch for a long, long time. Unless they pay local experts to renovate it…
Djukic’s team have been training in the stadium meaning the playing surface won’t be all that.

Bad news for the locals – Fede Cartabia, dashing winger and their best player I’d say, is on loan from Valencia so the ‘Clause of Fear’ as it’s called here kicks in. ‘No play!’ say Valencia.
Nuno has had los Che practising shooting all week so you’re obviously guaranteed that it’ll be a header that wins this [Negredo] but Parejo is hitting the net for fun and strikes from distance, Feghouli should start and love a long range effort as does the returning Gomes who’s no longer… suspended.
Away win, HAS to be for a Valencia trying to learn how to win on the road in order to reach the Champions league.

Graham’s Bet: Valencia to win 2-1
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Atletico Madrid v Almeria – Saturday 7pm
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Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Right? A safety pin through the nostril is a heavenly look for one guy, cashmere sweater and cravat for the next. Thus: Luis Enrique is obsessed, OBSESSED I tell you, by secrecy over training and team selection at Barcelona.

On the other hand Diego Simeone, similarly intense as a guy and a manager, practically sold state secrets by voluntarily naming Atlético’s starting XI for this Saturday night game early on Friday afternoon! It is:

Moyá; Juanfran, Godín, Miranda, Siqueira; Saúl, Tiago, Gabi, Arda; Griezmann, Mandzukic

As he was doing it I swear I could hear Lucho Enrique shrieking ‘are you flaming mad you idiot?!!!’ in horror. This has the makings of a good game. Juan Ignacio Martinez, know to everyone as JIM, is a real student of Rafa Benitez, gets his teams organised and tough to break down and he’s got a couple of really lively and threatening players in Thievy [who’s not the soundest temperament-wise] and Hemed [worth an ‘any-time’ punt] up front.

Atleti were simply posted missing last week but as Simeone pointed out they are a totally different side at home, in front of their rabidly supportive fans, and with the elegant Arda Turan in the side.
Unless Simeone’s team get ahead promptly there’s the possibility of a hangover from last week’d defeat to Celta – but with Arda back, Tiago fit again and no experimental tactical nonsense like the coach tried last week the Champions should punch their weight again.

Graham’s Bet: Atletico to win 3-2
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Real Sociedad v Sevilla – Sunday 11am
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Well now. David Moyes has a fan in Valencia owner Peter Lim and here’s a chance for the Scot to do the Singaporean a favour by defeating the fifth-placed side – Valencia’s main Champions League rivals.
La Real have been working hard this week. There have been a couple of double training sessions, the first of which prevented Moyes from going back to Lancashire and expert-analysing the Preston North End v Manchester United FA Cup tie on Monday night.

blog_moyes_hdr

What La Real did NOT have was a testing and draining Europa League tie on Thursday night followed by the long trip up north from Andalusia to the Basque Country and then a Sunday midday kick off. More, Sevilla’s Europa League tie with Borussia Moenchengladbach is now delicately balanced at 1-0 and the defending champions prize retaining the trophy very, very highly. Second leg next week – could some of Unai Emery’s men have the match in Germany as a higher priority than this one?

Perhaps, just perhaps, all this narrows the gap between the two sides slightly. Grzegorz Krychowiak, a titan for Sevilla in recent weeks, is suspended for his red card last week. Iborra might be worth looking at for a goal – he’s got himself in a cartload of scoring positions over the last few games.

So, make your own careful judgments but with Canales, Chory Prieto, Granero and Agirretxe all looking in form there’s a hint that La Real could take advantage of the situation and finally notch a win [there’s only been one of them since beating Barcelona on January 4]. IF you back them and they are ahead with ten minutes left mebbe Cash Out, there’s a long history of La Real letting a result slip away in the late stages of games this season.

Graham’s Bet: Real Sociedad to win 2-1
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Elche v Real Madrid – Sunday 8pm
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‘I’d like a piece of their crisis!’ was the tone of the Elche coach’s press conference before this match.

Asked, legitimately enough, whether this was the best time of the season to be hosting Madrid, Fran Escribá was invited to move away from the wall but didn’t want to dance. Elche have put two wins together on the trot when, previously, they looked like they couldn’t even spell the word if you gave them w_n as a starter clue.

Carlo Ancelotti

Los Blancos have lost three times this year and Carlo Ancelotti found himself, as per usual with this brutally demanding club, bang in the middle of a hurricane of doubts and criticism. But his rival this Sunday pointed out:

“They’ve one foot in the Champions League quarter final where they are defending champions, they are still league leaders and they just became World Club champions. That’s a very ‘Real Madrid’ kind of crisis”

Escribá looks like a talent. His “dream” is to go back and manage Atlético on his own [where he was assistant to Quique Sanchez Flores], so this is something of a job audition for the future. “It’s a good moment to face Madrid firstly because of how we are playing, with confidence. “Two months ago it’s possible that the players and people around the club might have said that an ‘honourable defeat’ was acceptable against Madrid. “Now my players feel strong – capable of winning”

Nice little atmosphere brewing – Elche are the ninth-best supported club in La Liga this season. Madrid will need to be up for it. If you back ‘shocks’ look at their hustle-bustle striker Jonathas and their dancing-feet winger Garry Rodrigues. Me? I think Madrid aren’t near their best yet but they are shaking off their lethargy and they won here last season in the 90th minute (1-2) thanks to Ronaldo. Something similar this time – Ronaldo and mebbe Isco? Ps: think there’s a Bale goal coming because he’s begun to work a good deal harder.

Graham’s Bet: Cristiano Ronaldo to score and Real to win – 8/11
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Graham Hunter: Real Madrid can’t afford to do anything but win

Posted on February 14, 2015 by SoccerCapper

Real Madrid v Deportivo Saturday 5pm

Madrid have been jeered by their own fans when Depor came to town before, albeit not often.

That was the infamous Copa Del Rey final when the original cast of the Galácticos were gifted the right to play the showpiece match at their own stadium, the Santiago Bernabéu, back in March 2002 because the 6th was their 100th birthday.

Depor came to town, wrapped up the final with very little trouble, 2-1, and the shock rocked Spanish football helping cost Vicente Del Bosque his job just over a year later.

This time the jeering and whistling will come in the form of a retrospective reprimand from the ‘hawkish’ Bernabéu

Losing, pathetically, at Atlético last week was sore enough for the fans.

But the spectacle played out over the last few days in the media as first photos and then a video from Cristiano Ronaldo’s birthday party on that Saturday night has corroded a lot of built-up goodwill between the team, Ronaldo and the fans.

Not a single Spaniard from the squad, nor Bale, Benzema, Varane, Chicharito or Kroos attended. But, as Ronaldo danced and sang with his Colombian pop-star pal, Pepe, Marcelo, Coentrao, Keylor, Khedira and James were present so you can count on hard-line Madridistas being outraged. And letting the team know it.

El Blackoutico! Money-Back if there's a goal inside 15 minutes of Real Madrid v Barcelona

Since losing eight goals at home to Madrid in September the following 19 games have shown Victor Fernández‘ long-standing managerial ability.

Depor have only won five but they’ve also drawn five and the fact that they’ve kept eight clean sheets in that time has meant they’ve gone from a low of last place to 11th today – five points off the relegation zone.

I suppose the very concept of a ‘shock’ result implies one it’s hard to see coming. So, a shock here?

Madrid out-of-form, missing key footballers in front of a skeptical, angry audience. Depor, a bit more sturdy but significantly short of the class that ‘holds out’ for 90 minutes at a venue like this.

If ever the modern, debilitated Depor had even a sniff of that shock then this is it.

But it’s too hard to believe in. Perhaps Madrid will look stodgy, perhaps Depor can frustrate.

However Ancelotti’s team simply CANNOT afford to do anything other than win here or the heavens will fall on their heads. Pablo Insua is suspended, Sidnei injured, José Rodríguez ineligible thanks to the terms of his loan from Madrid.

If you reckon they’ll score, look to Cavaleiro or Oriol Riera for Depor. But unless the home team win by two or three there’ll be hell to pay. Madrid will be: Casillas; Arbeloa, Nacho, Varane, Marcelo; Isco, Illarramendi, Kroos; Bale, Benzema, Ronaldo

Perm from Benzema, Kroos, Isco and the out of form Ronaldo. Marcelo is back from suspension but Pepe, Modric,Coentrão, Khedira Ramos and James remain out, injured or are seeking fitness.

Graham’s Bet: Madrid -3 13/8

Valencia v Getafe Sunday 11am

Back to beginnings.

Quique Sanchez Flores was not only an aggressive right back for Valencia for nearly 300 games in the 1980’s it was in his single previous season at Getafe coach that he did well enough to earn his shot at coaching Valencia.

That was when Los Che were reigning champions [04/05] and QSF had just been pinched, by Madrid-based Getafe, from the Real Madrid youth coaching system.

His Getafe beat the title-holders [then coached by Claudio Ranieri] at the Coliseum and lost 3-1 at the Mestalla but he’d done enough to inherit when Valencia got shot of the Tinkerman.

QSF only lasted two and a bit seasons but he did precisely what is now demanded of Nuno Espirito Santo – qualify for the Champions League.

Old Quique has football in every corpuscle.

He shares a birthday with Cristiano Ronaldo, Neymar and Carlos Tevez, his dad, Isidro, was a repeat trophy winner with Real Madrid, his Godfather was Alfredo Di Stéfano while he himself won the title with Los Blancos and went to Italia 90 in the Spain squad.

But he’ll be doing damn well to repeat Getafe’s 3-1 win at Valencia last season. They’ve only played at the Mestalla ten times in the league -eight defeats, that one win and a draw.

Quique Sanchez Flores

It’s a sign of the changing times at the Mestalla that only two Valencia players from that rarest of rare defeats last season will start on Sunday [Barragán and Parejo].

Nuno doesn’t fancy the lunchtime kick-off [midday here in Spain] so he fixed a closed-doors friendly against Zenit on Thursday at midday just to practice the ‘feeling’.

Valencia won 1-0 [Parejo scored again] and it looks like they’ll start Alves, Barragán, Mustafi, Otamendi, Gayá; Enzo, Fuego; Piatti, Parejo, Rodrigo DP; Negredo.

Geta did Valencia a huge favour last week, beating Sevilla, I’d expect them to repeat the good feeling this week by losing here.

None of those who’s goals won the first meeting this season [0-3 Valencia] will start: Alcácer, Rodrigo Moreno and André Gomes.

Parejo can’t stop scoring [already the highest total of his career], Negredo owes his boss a goal, Gayá, who’s fllying, is a wee ‘outside’ bet.

Álvaro is QSF’s repeat scorer. Five straight wins at home for Valencia in all comps since November, Getafe’s last Liga away win was in October. Back the home team by two.

Graham’s Bet: Parejo to score anytime and Valencia to win 16/5

Barcelona v Levante Sunday 4pm

Their main striker, David Barral, scores a hat-trick as often as Jose Mourinho admits: ‘You’re right, I was out of order’.

So it’d be nice to try and play-up Levante’s chances.

But I’m not sure that’s realistic. Since losing to Real Sociedad on January 4 Barcelona have played ten, won ten and scored 37.

There are patches of play where they are as electrically quick, as intuitive and as confident as at any time since the peak of the Pep Guardiola era. Not all the time, but regularly.

This season their La Liga goal-ratio is 62:13; historically they’ve played Levante eleven times at the Camp Nou, winning eleven and scoring 41.

So unless something seismic is about to happen let’s assume a home win …okay?

Luis Suarez

Perhaps the art is in determining the margin. Neymar’s rate of goals since losing at the Anoeta is nine in nine matches – but the last three games have seen him fluff really gaping chances, including a penalty against Villarreal in midweek. So do you back his goal-a-game record or feel critical because he’s not been properly clinical?

Messi should get 2+ goals here but thinking about Pedro, Xavi, Rafinha or Rakitic might bear fruit here because Luis Enrique will certainly try to rotate his first-choice XI throughout the match.

As for Suárez he continues unchanged. Exceptional in his team play, bursting with assists but finishing less ruthlessly than he’d like. Barcelona’s most regular score at home to Levante is 5 – perhaps they’ll have to settle for a slightly less impressive result this time?
Suárez, Messi, Pedro and Barral.

Graham’s Bet: Barcelona -3 10/11 and Messi to score two goals 4/5

Celta Vigo v Atlético Madrid Sunday, 8pm

Talk about some sort of curse. It’s not opening the Tomb of Tutankhamun, or running amok with a jack-hammer in a mirror factory.

But Joaquin Larrivey did his karma some sort of damage when he scored Celta Vigo’s first La Liga winner at the Camp Nou since World War II.

Prior to that historic night last Autumn the big Argentinian had seven goal in ten league games. Rocket-fuelled.

Since then, not one in 649 minutes and ten games. Three and a half horrible months.

Last season he scored against Atleti for Rayo and quite fancies a return date.

“I’m not sure if it’s true to say that I ‘miss’ the glory of scoring so long as the team wins but I’m hungry to start again and it’s a good battle against Godín and Miranda. “They are aggressive, tough and keep their concentration high for the whole game. “It’d be a great way to start another run of goals getting one against them this weekend”.

And he might be worth a look. Atleti are without Koke [injured], Raúl García and Arda Turan. Interestingly, for a centre half, tough-as-teak Godín will play with a broken nose, using a plastic ‘Phantom’ mask.

RT @diegogodin: Recién estrenando mi máscara. Ya pude entrenar y probarla pensando en el domingo. pic.twitter.com/fvJ065dJwk

— Atlético de Madrid (@Atleti) February 11, 2015

Can he be as effective, as fearless in every challenge?? Saúl, despite injuring his knee while making the third goal last week, should be good to start. So Cholo Better Call …. oh, you got there already…
Meanwhile El Cholo Simeone has been practicing this week with Mandzukic, Griezmann and Fernando Torres up front.

A statement of intent.

Celta, remarkably, haven’t won at home to Atleti since 2005 – losing 0-1. 1-3 [twice] and 0-2 in the four games since.

Those two sides shared four goals in the first meeting of the season and a result of that order doesn’t look impossible now that Celta, if not Larrivey, have remembered how to score the odd goal.

Look for Torres, Griezmann, Larrivay and Nolito as likely scorers. Good betting.

Graham’s Bet: Atleti win and Torres to Score 7/2
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Graham Hunter: Ronaldo-less Real to kick up a 9/1 winner, Barca to sneak by at 8/1and the best of the rest

Posted on January 30, 2015 by SoccerCapper

Real Madrid v Real Sociedad, Saturday 3pm

You’d be hard-pressed to find any Real Sociedad supporters who call this their ‘lucky’ season, or regard the last few months with much affection at all.

However the Guinness Book of Records stat that they’ve beaten Real Madrid, Atlético and Barcelona using three different coaches can show up a wee four-leaved clover effect if you look a little closer.

In the second game of the Liga season La Real went 2-0 down at home to Madrid before winning 4-2 – in a match where Cristiano Ronaldo was missing, injured.

By the time Asier Santana succeeded Jagoba Arrasate it was Spanish champions Atlético who were beaten – 2-1 having been behind by a goal.

Further examination is that La Real beat a ten-man team thanks to Guilherme Siquiera’s red card five minutes after half time.

Then, finally, Barcelona are put to the sword. The 1-0 win is David Moyes “happiest day” in football.

David Moyes

But, again, fate intervenes. Luis Enrique drops Leo Messi, Neymar, Dani Alves, Ivan Rakitic and Gerard Piqué all of whom you’d call automatic first team certainties.

Now it’s Madrid away and Ronaldo gets himself sent off so he’ll be missing the return fixture at the Santiago Bernabéu.

A wee hint that La Real are fated to pull off another almighty shock? Compared to all the other wins this would be the earth-shaker.

The Basques haven’t won at the Bernabéu since 2004 and the only player or sub on either of the team sheets from that day who’s even still at his club is Xabi Prieto. In fact the man who won last week’s Basque derbi against Eibar with that bizarre looping header also scored that day.

I suggest backing the 31 year old now if for no other reason than one of the more remarkable statistical scoring anomalies I’ve ever seen. Not prolific, Prieto has nevertheless scored at least three times as many goals against Madrid as against any other team in his long career. A maximum of three against anyone else, nine [in 14 games] against what is theoretically his most difficult opponent in Spain. Ronaldo has tended to be the missing element in Madrid’s defeats this season. Absent for the loss to La Real, benched for two defeats against Atlético. Whether him being out is sufficient to make a slightly tired-looking Madrid lose at home to a side which isn’t capable of many goals needs to be treated with skepticism. Geronimo Rulli has been an absolute diamond for David Moyes since he promoted the young Argentinian keeper but he’ll need to be superb if La Real are to pinch a draw. As will Iñigo Martínez who I suspect is playing for a move to Madrid at the end of the season. Odds against it but football’s a funny old game. 3-1 the European Champions. Benzema [4 in 7 and every one of them at the Bernabéu] loves a goal against the Txuri-Urdin.

Graham’s Bet: Real Madrid to win 3-1 at 9/1

Eibar v Atlético Madrid, Saturday 5pm

I’d say that Diego Simeone likes a moan … but he knows where I live.

Still, perhaps he has a case. This trip to the hostile Basque country will be Atlético’s ninth game in January having played eight, won five, lost three [to Barcelona], scored 11 and conceded nine. But I reckon there are other stats which are of equal concern to that narrow +goals tally.

Last season Atleti only saw two reds and 100 yellows in 46 League and Copa matches.

This season, in only 26 League and Copa matches they’ve seen five reds and 89 yellows. Vastly worse discipline.

Gabi [sent off in midweek] is already suspended this weekend for his fifth booking. Diego Godín, suspended for the last two games, returns against Eibar. But, here’s the rub.

At half time against Barcelona Diego Simeone opted not to chase the tie, not to chase the three goals they required in order to save his team’s legs, lungs and potentially save them more disciplinary problems. [The last bit didn’t work].

Why? Because he had to now give priority to the upcoming chances of retaining the league and reaching the Champions League final once again. He knows his players are flagging – mentally and physically. So, what will he do here selection-wise? Next weekend is the Madrid derbi our sixth of the season [Atleti winning 3 so far]. It’s at the Calderón and it’s imperative they win to close the gap at the top. But he has several players one booking away from a suspension against Madrid – Arda, Juanfran, Miranda and Raúl Garcia. It must worry Atleti fans and Atleti backers that their discipline has gone to pot.

Ipurua Municipal Stadium

So, back to his moans. The defeat to Barcelona finished at about 11pm on Wednesday this match kicks off 6pm Saturday. The Argentinian genuinely thought that if it were played on Sunday the extra recuperation for his players could be vital. So, to put faith in them or to back them to drop points?

Mandzukic didn’t play midweek so he must start. Griezmann was withdrawn at half time so ditto. Back either one for a goal. Both teams to score I reckon but Eibar …

This is virgin territory for them. There’s never been a Primera Division meeting between Eibar and Atlético at Ipurua. Two second division meetings yielded a win each – the first for Eibar robbing Atleti of a chance to get back to the top division, the second a 3-0 win starring Luis Aragonés as Atleti coach, Mono Burgos in goal and a very young Fernando Torres up front. Gaizka Garitano, now their coach, played for the Basques that day. Eibar don’t bend down for anyone and even made it tough for Atleti at the Calderón earlier in the season. Manu Del Moral has found the net easily in recent weeks. Worth a look. Okay, the champions might well win this, but it’s a banana-skin fixture.

Graham’s Bet: Both teams to score at 6/5

Barcelona v Villarreal,Sunday 8pm

Memories, memories. This has become one of Spain’s great fixtures. Overflowing with football. And the threat that the fluorescent boys will outshine the Blaugrana boys. From spring 2003 to spring 2005 across five matches Villarreal won three times and Barça managed two points out of fifteen. From April 2007 until January 2010, across six meetings, Villarreal won three and Barça only managed five points out of a possible eighteen. However not since mid 2008 when Jon Dahl Tomasson scored the winner have Villarreal taken three points at the Camp Nou. Those are all the stone-cold facts. Now for the coulda-woulda-shoulda.

Camp Nou

At the start of the season the Yellow Submarine did everything but torpedo Barcelona. They made more, better quality chances and Luis Enrique’s fledgling team got off the hook – particularly when Messi made the late winner for young Sandro.

Lumps were kicked out of some Barcelona players in midweek so you’d expect Xavi to start [might well be worth an anytime goal], perhaps Pedro too. Villarreal play such quick, attacking football that them scoring should be no shock – perm from Cheyshev, Musacchio and Vietto. But Barcelona to win … just. 2-1

Graham’s Bet: Barcelona to win 2-1 at 8/1

Málaga v Valencia, Monday 7.45pm

The seaside team against the see-saw team. Following their barnstorming win over Sevilla last week [as predicted] the emphasis is on Valencia to rid themselves of their biggest current flaw. Particularly away from home a step forward always seems to be followed by two backwards. For example, Valencia dismantle Spanish champions Atlético then lose, heavily, to Deportivo La Coruña who’ve recently shipped in eight goals at home to Madrid.

They give the the excellent Villarreal a bit of a doing but then take one point out of nine against Athletic, Levante and Barcelona. Even before crashing out of the Cup, Valencia win at Rayo but then concede four at home to the same team and only just manage to claw their way back into the tie having trailed 5-3 at home. Is it their mentality? Is it the fact that this is an almost wholly new team constructed at high speed this summer? They, unlike Cup quarter finalists Málaga, have had a free week to prepare and should be firing on all cylinders. As for other business, things could barely be better.

Getafe have stumped up the €600k they owed Los Che, Antonio Barragán and Pablo Piatti are both nearly fit again and Paco Alcácer just signed a new deal until 2020. This is a tie they simply must win and they have fourteen Liga scorers to choose from. But look to Parejo in the best scoring form of his career, Alcácer and Negredo to assure that.

Javi Gracia

As for Málaga their elimination at Athletic in the Cup leaves a clear stat emerging. Having scored in every single match since September Javi Gracia’s team have now failed to score in three of their last four matches. In La Liga Samuel Garcia and Amrabat are joint top scorers with just four. Gracia’s team look skilled, as if they have an ‘identity’ but they also look flat and short on gas.

This is a match which won’t be easy for Los Che, particularly given their weak away record, but it’s also one they MUST win if they are to remain credible challengers to quality for the Champions League next seasons. I take them to do that. 0-2

Graham’s Bet: Valencia to win 2-0 at 12/1
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Graham Hunter: Get Real with his 10/1 correct score punt on Madrid plus an 8/1 treble involving Barca, Valencia and Fernando Torres

Posted on January 24, 2015 by SoccerCapper

Córdoba-Real Madrid Saturday 3pm

The kind of match to watch out for. Córdoba spent months looking like they weren’t cut out for la Primera and their cowardly President sacked Albert Ferrer by emissary, and then text, rather than be brave enough to tell him to his face.

A pox on him I say.

When the Andaluz side lost heavily at the Camp Nou in December, the players got the mother and father and next door neighbour of all rollickings from their flint-hard aggressive coach, Miroslav Djukic who then told the world in general that his lads lacked ‘cojones’ and had simply turned up to swap shirts with the Barcelona stars.

At that stage they’d won just once and were in free-fall. Since the tongue-lashing they’ve picked up seven of the available nine points.

The European champions have had a week of dedicated training and preparation thanks to being out of la Copa – but these games, I guess, are the kind of David v Goliath moments when a small side desperate to stave off relegation sometimes somehow catches the big-guy complacent and dozy.

El Blackoutico! Money-Back if there's a goal inside 15 minutes of Real Madrid v Barcelona

If, and I stress IF, that’s your considered view on this test for Carlo Ancelotti’s mob then try this.

Nabil Ghilas is the striker Algeria left behind when they went to the Cup of Nations and he’s got a bee in his bonnet about it.

I’d have loved to have defend my country’s colours but since I moved to Spain they’ve ignored me and now I’m set on scoring against Madrid and winning to show them what I can do. I’ve shed six kilos since the start of the season and right now I’d not say that it’s a dream to score against Iker Casillas because when I’m on the pitch and in form I always believe I can beat anyone.

He’s top scorer with five – one of which won Córdoba their first victory away at Athletic Bilbao for 42 years.

But the two who stand out, quality-wise, are the pair who combined for last week’s 10-second goal against Eibar. Fede Cartabia, a flamboyant Argentinian winger on loan from Valencia, made it for Florin Andone – a 21 year old Romanian brought up near Barcelona. Ferrer loved the kid’s attitude and emerging ability but injury hampered his development.

Now he’s got three goals in five games and although the impoverished club charges him €50 he can barely afford [he’s on youth team wages] for each match shirt he keeps – he’s going to swap this one with a Madrid star come hell or high water. Preferably having beaten them.

Ronaldo, (above) despite knee pain, should start, Pepe is still injured so Rafa Varane plays and you’d imagine that Sami Khedira should deputise for Isco, also injured [and a loss].

Usually you can stand on Honest Carlo’s words and the Italian reckons his team benefitted from a dedicated week, are ready to perform and, thus, it’s probably time to back Goliath to duck the slingshot. 1-3. NB, a promising 24 year old Portuguese striker, name of Bebé is in the Córdoba squad. They say United are interested….

Graham’s bet: Real Madrid to win 1-3 @ 10/1

Luis-Enrique 840

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Elche-Barcelona Saturday 5pm

Keith Moon dies, Charlie Chaplin’s coffin is stolen and then recovered, Jamie Carragher, Gigi Buffon and Emile Heskey are all born, Dallas [JR, Sue Ellen and the Poison Dwarf] airs its first episode and Garfield is created.

The last time Elche scored against Barcelona.

Nine games across those Buffon-Carragher-Heskey years, an aggregate of 30-0 in favour of the Blaugrana during those 810 minutes.

Three of those matches have come this season with a 3-0 league win on the opening day complemented by an aggregate 9-0 thumping in the Cup where Fran Escribá’s side was clinically dismantled.

It doesn’t take a genius to work out that if, again I stress that word really heavily, you see something to set your little gambler’s heart going pitter patter in the way Elche play then it must be because of Jonathas.

The Brazilian striker is reminiscent of Diego Costa, albeit in 2009/10 with Valladolid, when he’d remorselessly harass defenders when he didn’t have the ball and wage war on them when he did.

Jonathas, already 25, won’t turn into a world class finisher like Costa did but he has power, height, aggression and reasonable technique.

As for Barcelona – will they be the group which drew 0-0 at Getafe and Málaga and surrendered 1-0 at Real Sociedad? Or will they repeat the urgency, unity and dazzling skill of last week’s 4-0 win at Deportivo la Coruña?

Lionel Messi 2013

Despite a monumental challenge in Madrid this Wednesday against Atlético in the second leg of the Cup quarter final, Luis Enrique’s named a strong squad, not resting a single key player.

So, for those who like to bet in-play the things to look for would be a) does Luis Enrique’s team press and mob the opposition … or give off a ‘can’t be bothered’ Kevin the Teenager approach to that blue collar work? The other thing, which for purely alphabetical reasons we’ll call b) is: how fast is the ball moving between players.

Recently Messi (above) and Co. have made the football fizz and zip between them and opposition [Elche, Atlético and Depor] simply haven’t been able to cope.

It’s not a time to back against Messi, he’s hotter than Johnny Torch, but there’s value in looking at Alba and Pedro. Alba simply knows where the goal is and pops up every so often at longer odds while Pedro might get more game time than normal in order to assure one of the ‘big’ three up front is particularly fresh for the midweek tie at Atleti.

Maybe we’ll get memories of ’78 – ticker-tape, the Argentinian World Cup, the debuts of 3-2-1 and Grange Hill plus that last Elche goal against Barcelona [though this lot have only put two shots on target against the Blaugrana in 180 minutes this season].

But even though Escribá and gang organized a 0-0 nil in this fixture against a knackered Barça last May it’s tough to see them doing anything other than shipping two or more goals this time.

Graham’s bet: Barcelona (-2 on the handicap) @7/5

Fernando Torres 800

Atlético-Rayo Vallecano, Saturday 7pm

This, for the uninitiated, is a Madrid derby. For the initiated, it’s a game without the crackle of excitement it would usually merit because Rayo’s boisterous, noisy, loyal and generally admirable fans are boycotting the game.

Pity. Paco Jémez’s team made life objectionably difficult for the Spanish champions on the first match weekend of the season

But it’d be remiss of me not to remind you that the last time Rayo beat their neighbours they were coached by Juande Ramos, Kasey Keller was in goal and Jimmy ‘Pichichi’ Hasselbaink was up front for Los Colchoneros.

In fact let’s stick with Jémez for a minute. Utterly dedicated to the Pep Guardiola school of football his team are more ‘front-foot’ than the forward half of a pantomime horse.

There are hints that a) he’s well enough thought of at Atleti that he might be next in the door whenever Cholo Simeone leaves but also b) that whether or not the Atleti job is on offer this summer Jémez, who’s asking for a bigger contract raise in order to renew than Rayo want to pay, may hit the road anyway.

Suffice to say that he’ll ensure his team try to put on a show today. Future employers may be watching. [A nice little vignette is that Jesus Muñoz, Jémez’s assistant, was room-mate to Atleti legend Fernando Torres when El Niño first broke into the Atleti team. Wouldn’t you just bet on Torres repaying the friendship with a goal to break Rayo hearts?]

Anyway, not to repeat an earlier point, Simeone’s champions have a testing mid-week match with Barcelona and you’d bet he’ll shuffle the pack in terms of a starting XI.

Raul Garcia should start, might score, both Koke and Arda need to prove fitness. Diego Godín is suspended so Manucho might just get a chance to add to his headed goal at Real Sociedad last week.

But Rayo really want to get Leo Baptistao fit enough to play, and score, against his former team.

Graham’s bet: Fernando Torres to score anytime @ 5/6

Nuno Espirito Santo 840

Valencia v Sevilla, Sunday 8pm

A downright corker.

Two sides, both economically challenged, locked in mortal battle for the fourth place in La Liga which can win you anywhere from €10m to €50m of Champions League revenue.

You want more!

Two sides who fought to a standstill in the semi final of the Europa League last season, until Stéphane Mbia popped up with one of those ‘where the hell did that come from?’ second-leg-94th-minute-away-goal winners.

More? Mas? As they say here in Spain.

Both sides have recently been thumped by Espanyol in the Cup – Valencia 2-0, Sevilla 3-1.

And, finally, you still want even more? Okay. Unai Emery, currently the coach of Sevilla, Europa League holder and sitting cosily in fourth position, did terrific work in charge of Valencia, helped them make huge profits on footballers who thrived under him and kept on getting Los Che champions league qualification. But he was perpetually undervalued – by the club, by the media, by the fans. He’ll be given a sometimes frosty, sometimes hostile welcome back at the Mestalla on Sunday night.

Two wins apiece in the last four of this Liga fixture in Valencia and Mbia’s on international duty so not able to repeat his feat.

Bacca often repays a backer, Gameiro’s form is on the rise and Valencia have been conceding headed goals of late so you may like to look at Pareja or Carriço.

As for the home side, Negredo played for Sevilla long enough to know their weaknesses and score against them, Álcacer is long overdue reward for his good movement and Andre ‘I shoot on sight’ Gomes deserves to hit the net more often for his quality of movement and work rate. Draw looks good, but Sevilla look a tad tired. Valencia to win by one goal.

Graham’s bet: Valencia to win @ 6/5 or Valencia to win by exactly one goal @ 11/4

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Graham Hunter La Liga preview: Why Real should out-gun Sociedad but Barca are no gimmes at Villarreal

Posted on January 19, 2015 by SoccerCapper

It’s week two of La Liga and the big guns have very different test as Barca and Real hit the road hoping to match reigning champions Atletico win over Eibar at the Calderón.

Villarreal v Barcelona, Sunday 6pm

Once Villarreal found out how to beat Barcelona for the first time, in April 2003, it began a 14 match run during which Barça only won four times, there were four draws while, both home and away, Villarreal won six.

The golden years of Pep Guardiola saw the contest veer firmly back in favour of the Camp Nou side but the gap has been narrowing over the last three results – two single-goal victories for Barça and a 0-0 draw.

In fact for the good of La Liga and Spanish football in general it’s a terrific time for this test to come around for Luis ‘Lucho’ Enrique’s (below) re-designed Barcelona side.

Luis-Enrique 840

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Their work ethic, during pre-season and in training, is vastly different from the laissez faire days of Tata Martino, the investment in the squad may not have bought premium beef but it’s better than the spam which was often served up last season.

However it’s nice and early for this project to be given a test like the visit to the Madrigal. Uncomfortable even.

Villarreal work with great intensity whether or not they have the ball, they break at speed, they are on the back of two thrilling Europa League results and, importantly, Cani is once again fit and available to add his nous and attacking aggression to the midfield. (He scored against both Barça and Madrid last season but how they missed him in the middle of the campaign when he was out for 12 straight games.)

At the back Villarreal fought Spurs off for Mateo Musacchio, they’ve signed the previously on-loan Sergio Asenjo (who’s good enough to compete for a place in the Spain squad) and it’s just the type of tight pitch and fervent ‘little town’ support to make this the equivalent of a well balanced FA Cup third-round tie.

Luis Suarez Uruguay resize

Above all, Villarreal play football. They are smart, quick, protective of the ball and will attack Barcelona. Six months from now, perhaps even six weeks from now, with all the new signings bedded in, Luis Suárez (above) available, Luis Enrique in greater command of what’s at his disposal you’d feel confident of backing Barcelona.

Right now it’s one of those ‘you never know’ games about which the rest of Spain is crossing it’s fingers. And singing the verse to Yellow Submarine.

Real Sociedad v Real Madrid, Sunday 8pm

Carlo Ancelotti840

Once Real Madrid would confront a visit to the Basque Country, in fact anywhere north of Catalunya, with a shudder of horror.

Defeat would be on the cards and what would be absolutely certain would be a night of Basque hostility, intensity, a test of mental and physical muscles – no quarter given.

Right now, ahead of their trip to the Anoeta this weekend, I’d guess that Carlo Ancelotti (above) Paul Clement and Fernando Hierro are wearing happy little grins.

Rogered in Russia

While Madrid were in Geneva dominating the Uefa gala, basking in the golden glow of adoration and their 10th Champions Cup their opponents on Sunday, Real Sociedad, were being rogered in Russia.

Five hour trip there, big new summer-signing Alfred Finnbogason missing injured, three-goal defeat, out of Europe, newly signed keeper Geronimo Rulli injured and likely out for two months, five-agonising-hour journey home. Welcome to the big(ish) time.

So La Real v Real shapes up as the perfect opportunity for Madrid to add to their ‘racha’ (run) of good results against the blue-and-whites.

It’s a decade since La Real beat Real and in their last six Liga meettings the capital club have pumped 26 goals past their rivals.

Right now the crowd are out of love with La Real, Jagoba Arrasate’s job is under threat, goals are terrifically hard to come by and the Txuri-urdin have lost a key man when they sold Chile’s World Cup keeper, Claudio Bravo to Barcelona.

ronaldo_freekick

Despite Madrid looking a bit slow, lacking in crisp, decisive passing and finishing last weekend there are positives. Ronaldo is nearer to fitness, the fact that Benzema broke his scoring drought against Cordoba and the fact that La Real have had a brutal week directs us towards an away win.

If it’s single-handed resistance you are looking for then think Xabi Prieto: he’s scored five times against Madrid in two recent matches – a 4-3 defeat and a 3-3 draw. And if you go ALL the way back to La Real’s last victory over Los Blancos, in May 2004, who scored two of the goals in the 4-1 away win?

Señor Prieto, that’s right.

You can follow Graham Hunter on Twitter @BumperGraham

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Graham Hunter: Why Real Madrid have a little in common with Chicken Licken this season

Posted on January 19, 2015 by SoccerCapper

Deportivo la Coruña v Real Madrid

Real Madrid’s opponents this weekend, Deportivo La Coruña, once represented perhaps the healthiest years in La Liga history.

They’d scout brilliantly, play superb football, regularly meet and beat teams like Manchester United, Arsenal and Milan. They were a force.

One of their most emblematic traits was that, at the Riazor in La Coruña (3pm, Saturday), Madrid just couldn’t beat them. For 18 long years there was the odd draw but also a regular flow of three, four and five-goal wins for Depo – often coached by an Atlético legend in Jabo Irureta, just to rub salt in the wound.

To put that kind of hex in context this was across a spell when Madrid reached and won three Champions League finals.

Biggest club competition? No problem.

Three points up in Galicia? Forget it.

Zidane v Keane

Roberto Carlos, Beckham, Figo, Zidane (above), Ronaldo never won at the Riazor while they were Galacticos.

The run from 1991/2 to 2009/2010 finally ended thanks to a 3-1 win inspired by two Karim Benzema goals, one of which is now infamous for a sublime Guti backheel into the Frenchman’s path when Guti seemed free to score himself.

Now Depo represent just about all that ails Spanish league football. Held together by player loans and bank debt there have been times in recent months while the team yo-yoed back and forward from the Second Division, when the club was a candidate to go out of business.

The last formal statement was last year when the total was €153m and they recently admitted owing €63m to the Spanish Revenue as part of that.

What has not changed since that January 2010 win for Manuel Pellegrini’s Madrid broke the jinx, however, is that the Riazor remains a place where Los Blancos need to sweat.

Since then there’ve been two whoppings at the Bernabéu, 11-2 aggregate, but a 0-0 draw and 1-2 away win courtesy of an 88th minute second goal for Jose Mourinho’s Madrid.

A cautionary tale about Real’s weaknesses

This weekend attention turns to Albert Lopo (above) if he starts. The big central defender has played all three league fixtures for Victor Fernandez, but the coach, who often put out winning Celta Vigo and Real Zaragoza teams against Madrid in his day, has been rotating the team significantly.

Why Lopo? He’s scored for both Espanyol and Depo against Los Blancos, the last a headed winner against a back five which sported Casillas, Ramos, Pepe and Marcelo.

Madrid fear the ball in the air more than Chicken Licken feared the sky falling on his head. More? Booked in all three of this season’s matches, Lopo hates a card. Just hates one.

Sent off 13 times in his career and booked 136 times he’s not the quickest and referee Pedro Pérez Montero sports a record of 18 reds in 55 Liga matches. One every three games.

Madrid to win, however. In both of their horror defeats, away to La Real and home to Atlético, they made oodles and oodles of good scoring chances but only put three of them away.

The way in which they hammered Basel in midweek and the relief, for Benzema, James and Bale to get on the scoresheet should de-stress their finishing. Worth noting, however, that their second half performance, just as against La Real and Atlético declined.

Ronaldo will be extra motivated to score at one of only two La Liga grounds this season where he’s not celebrated with a goal. Pepe is injured and Rafa Verane will start in his place.

IF Madrid were to lose then a sniff in the direction of next Liga coach to lose his job might be a forward investment.

Lionel Messi stat La Liga

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Levante v Barcelona

Munir made his Spain debut here a couple of weeks ago, Busquets and Pedro scored then too, against Macedonia, and the great majority of this squad has twice celebrated clinching the title on this ground in Valencia.

Happy hunting ground? Not necessarily so. Of Barcelona’s last seven Liga visits to the Ciutat De Valencia (8pm, Sunday) there have been four 1-1 draws. What I think makes that all the more significant is that the results have come under four different managers using significantly different XIs.

There’s something about this fierce, proud little community and the tight pitch, which was muddy and sluggish down the middle when Spain beat Macedonia back at the beginning of September, which forces Barcelona to be at their sharpest and most aggressive if they want three points.

Something which hasn’t, yet, been the case under the Luis Enrique revolution. Thus far Leo Messi has contributed four assists and scored two goals. Take them away [for the sake of argument] and Barcelona would have registered just one win, scored just one goal and would be under extreme pressure.

Levante don’t like scoring

No question, under ‘Lucho’ Barcelona are working harder, beginning to look more fluent and neither keeper, Claudio Bravo nor Marc-Andre ter Stegen, has had to make more than one significant save.

The pressing all over the pitch has helped see to that. But backstage after the 1-0 win over APOEL numerous players and staff used the word ‘espeso’ to describe their performance.

It’s the word you’d use if the sink pipe was blocked – i.e. not particularly fluid. Luis Enrique has used 22 of his 26 man squad, too many changes in too short a time, frankly.

Neymar hobbled out of the stadium on Wednesday and it’d be a surprise if he started. Time for Munir and Pedro again? NB it’s now 369 minutes since Levante scored a league goal… on that form you’d kinda fancy Barcelona to see out a good win, if they got the first goal.

Atlético v Celta Vigo

Cholo v Toto. No, it’s not code. It’s how this battle will be seen by many. Diego Simeone v Eduardo Berizzo. Two aggressive Argentinian street-fighters, with half a lifetime in common, doing battle for the first time as opposing coaches.

They played each other as kids for Newells Old Boys and Velez, they took lumps out of each other for Celta and Atlético as players, shared the national shirt of Argentina to good effect and both, in their fledgling years, coached at Estudiantes.

And perhaps, just perhaps, Toto has picked a good time to head back to Kansas.

Atlético lost only one game and conceded just five goals en route to last season’s Champions League final yet in Athens in midweek they lost to Olympiakos, conceded three times and looked as stretched as they’ve done in Europe for several years.

Mario Mandzukic is out for at least a fortnight after a reparative nose operation and you’d bet that Miguel Ángel Moyà will replace Jan Oblak in goal.

Tiredness was a word which Simeone didn’t allow to feature in Atlético’s dictionary last season… but might there be a trace of it this weekend at Vicente Calderon (7pm, Saturday).

Long journey to Athens, beaten in a sweaty, aggressive cauldron, long journey home – still no Simeone on the bench this weekend.

Heads you win

Celta like to play 4-3-3 in possession, 4-1-4-1 without the ball and, like Atleti are taught to press the opposition high up the pitch and to work like hungry dogs.

Atleti, without Mandzukic, will probably use Raul Jiménez and Antoine Griezmann up front leading to more breakaway counter attacks and a return to the ball played quickly over the top or into channel-runs as last season for Diego Costa.

Celta’s best player, Nolito, is fit again but might not start given that Celta host the Galician derby [v Depo] this week… but with Toto you never know.

Between them, the two sides have scored five headed goals already this season so a look at that for first goal, with perhaps Joaquín Larrivey [two goals already this season and a headed goal for Rayo against Atlético last season] or Diego Godín in mind might reward.

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Graham Hunter’s La Liga preview: Real Madrid should sink The Submarine and don’t be surprised to see red when Atletico meet Sevilla

Posted on January 19, 2015 by SoccerCapper

Villarreal [7th] v Real Madrid [5th] – Saturday 3pm

Villarreal 15/4, Real Madrid 4/6, Draw 3/1 – Bet here: Desktop | Mobile

Villarreal wins over Real Madrid come along about as often as a Scottish Independence referendum so it’s very tempting just to vote ‘No!’ here without listening to the debate.
The last time that fabled event took place Manchester City wasn’t even a gleam in Manuel Pellegrini’s eye and Real Madrid still heaped faith and optimism in Lassana Diarra and Royston Drenthe – whatever happened…… Never mind.

It was May 2009, just the second such triumph in their history and only three players from that night, Casillas, Bruno and Cani, can repeat this weekend. Each of them holds the potential to be a major participant.

Carlo Ancelotti (below), right now, is forcing all of us who pay attention to Spanish football to mimic him, in raising our left eyebrows like caterpillars ascending Alpe D’Huez for the Geometrid King of the Mountain’s title. Just over a week ago this most affable of Italian football godfathers began to snap and snarl at people who asked him about the goalkeeping situation. ‘No debate, I’m not getting into all that – Iker is the first team keeper and we won’t be rotating like last season’. Two games later he rotate the keepers.

Or… did he?

Carlo Ancelotti840

With Madrid’s home fans split down the middle over whether to chant in support of San Iker [Saint Iker] or whistle and jeer him, Casillas was left out against Elche. Rotated? Dropped? Keylor came in, did fine but basically had no work. Now Ancelotti says that he will not be playing one keeper in the Bernabeu and another in away matches but will not, either, confirm which of the two will be in the starting XI against Villarreal. [Iker I reckon]

So, what the hell is he up to?

As for Bruno he’s one of the most hard-working, agile and smart midfielders without a high profile in Spanish football. A local boy, he’s someone who could take advantage of the fact that while Toni Kroos is now the ‘organising midfielder’ he does have a tendency to go walkabout.

Then there’s Cani. Rested for Villarreal’s last game, 1-1 at Eibar, he has the aggression, height, know-how and ambition to produce something special on the big occasion, just as he did a year ago on Gareth Bale’s debut, here, in a 2-2 result which ultimately helped cost Madrid the title.

But, don’t ignore the obvious. Ronaldo (below) loves scoring at Villarreal – five in his last four visits – and he’s also hit seven in his last two Liga matches (4/9 to score anytime). The Submarine have three draws a defeat and a comeback win having trailed 0-2 at home to struggling Rayo to show for the weeks after shining in the Europa League qualifying. Imposing themselves and winning is costing them the world at the moment.

Gio Dos Santos is near to return, 20 year old ‘Lucky’ Luciano Vietto scored twice last week to open his account and Uche is working like a dog to supercede his injuries….. but it’ll take a strange twist of events if Madrid don’t add to their wee run of victories, even if at a reduced margin. Ronaldo (4/9 anytime) and Bale (10/11 anytime) to score and see them through.

Ronaldo celebrates

Barcelona [1st] v Granada [8th] – Saturday 5pm

Barcelona 1/8, Granada 20/1, Draw 7/1 – Bet here: Desktop | Mobile

Football is rock n roll, football grabs the senses, puts them in a high rev spin and returns them to you at the end of 90 minutes – football is a Ryder Cup-high every weekend. Football is king of sports. So let me make your adrenalin soar and your pulse rate rip through the Stock Aitken and Waterman hi-energy beats per minute.

Barcelona and Granada had 67% and 59% of possession in their midweek games … and neither team even managed one paltry effort on target. ‘Football, bloody hell’ [© SAF] Barcelona regularly struggle to beat Granada by more than a single goal and they lost to them last season [1-0] in a match where they bombarded the penalty area but could have been there until August without scoring.

More, Barça’s Messi-dependency has grown over the last year and a bit.

Lionel Messi 2013

If he’s on form, either as an assist-giver or scorer, Barcelona will beat most sides and become trophy contenders. If not, and he once again looked sluggish and tired in midweek even before Malága defender Weligton proved that not only can his parents not spell, he can’t read the rules of football [Clue: it’s NOT WWF] they huff and puff.

Does this paint as a possible banana-skin game for the home side?

Granada don’t concede much, they beat the Catalans last season, they’ve a healthy eight point total already and their coach, Joaquín Caparrós is one savvy dude with a wealth of La Liga know-how. Luis Enrique says: ‘I expect a complicated rival. ‘They are very strong defensively. ‘They work hard, they are smart at set pieces and they counter-attack well. ‘This’ll be the same as almost all our games this season’

Mebbe so. I’ve got a slightly different view. Granada not only were beaten at home in midweek [Levante] they were battered the previous game when winning in Bilbao on a day when they could and should have conceded about five. Barcelona were strangled all over the pitch by a super-industrious Malága midweek – it was one of those which looked like 14 men playing 11.

But the first thing which Caparrós targeted in criticising his team’s midweek slump was their intensity. Their work rate, their concentration but above all their intensity.

Iniesta-Spain-v-Ireland

If they repeat that and fail to learn from Malága’s excellence – they’ll be beaten. In Jhon Córdoba (5/1 anytime) and El Arabi (9/2 anytime), Granada have two big, quick strikers capable of running beyond Barcelona’s extremely high defensive line – can Bravo keep his goal secure [none conceded in the league thus far] and head towards a record? He’s 8/13 to keep a clean sheet.

Andrés Iniesta (above) hasn’t shone yet and needs to – this is just the type of game in which he might open his account (2/1 anytime) but Ivan Rakitic, who’ll take some of the free kicks and who’s not scared of a shot from distance, might add to the one he scored last week at Levante (2/1 anytime).

Sandro (10/11 anytime), if he gets more game time, looks a little sharper in front of goal than Munir (4/5 anytime) right now which is worth noting.

Atlético [3rd] v Sevilla [1st] – Saturday 7pm

Atletico 8/11, Sevilla 15/4, Draw 11/4 – Bet here: Desktop | Mobile

Recently this has been a game where the Spanish league has, politely, asked all participants and management to check their holsters, knuckle-dusters, coshes and tasers in with the security guards at a desk outside each dressing room. To merely brand it ill-tempered would be like saying that the Clanton and Earp brothers didn’t turn out to be socially compatible and that the Campbell’s weren’t great neighbours to Clan MacDonald.

The last six games between the sides have been Football at the OK Corral. They’ve produced 37 bookings, nine red cards [six of which have been straight reds] and five penalties. Very nearly a card of one colour or other every eleven minutes. All bar one of the games have been under the control of Diego Simeone (below) and Unai Emery.

simeone_840

But a couple of the game’s bad boys have moved on – Medel, Diego Costa, Filipe Luis for example. More, when this weekend’s ref, Snr Gonzalez Gonzalez was last in charge of the fixture it was like the Peace Games and white doves were released over the stadium at the end.Right in the middle of this run of undisguised ill-feeling he managed to see the 90 minutes through with only six bookings – ie no reds, no penalties. Can this ref keep things calm again?

Rumours that he put bromide in the players’ tea pre-match are quite unconfirmed.

So, this weekend. Sevilla are joint top, two points ahead of Los Colchoneros and Simeone’s side have looked irregular in draws with Celta and Rayo plus that Champions League defeat in Athens. But beware. Over these six back-alley skirmishes there have been 18 goals only five of which were scored by Sevilla who’ve managed no better than two draws and four defeats.

Raul-Garcia-Atletico

Carlos Bacca has been Sevilla’s touchstone for big goals this season [and last] but he didn’t score in either meeting with Atleti last term and was subbed off both times. Is he ready for this intensity this time? Is the slight slackness which Atletico are showing [they went behind against Celta at home last week and then gifted a really stupid penalty for the equalizer] the sniff of an opportunity which the Colombian requires? He’s 12/5 to score anytime if so.

Atletico are still scoring almost all their goals from set plays [six out of seven in the league], the majority headers, so it’s still worth thinking about Raul Garcia (above, 9/4 anytime), Miranda (9/1 anytime) and Diego Godín (8/1 anytime) while for Sevilla, Stephane Mbia (11/1 anytime) just loves a big goal when he arrives late in the box.

Two significant returns. Diego Simeone’s back on the touchline after his ban … will that quieten down the feud or ratchet it up? and Mario ‘Don’t call me the Phantom of the Opera’ Mandzukic is available again thanks to his 65 gram carbon fibre mask to protect his badly fractured nose.

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Graham Hunter’s La Liga Preview: Barca bounce back to form, Real run riot and a 12/1 shot

Posted on January 18, 2015 by SoccerCapper

Almería v Barcelona, Saturday 3pm

When Almería manager Fran Rico woke up on Thursday morning he got just about the best news possible.

No, not that Valencia and Sevilla were loaning them back Álvaro Negredo and Aleix Vidal so that the two ex-Almería strikers could get scoring practice against Barça but that the Catalan expedition had been stranded in Amsterdam over night thanks to a broken down plane.

Unlike the board, fans, journalists and players’ families, the team didn’t have to sleep in Schipol airport – being shipped off to a friendly hotel at about 2.20 am.

FRAN-TASTIC NEWS: The Almeria boss will have welcomed Barca’s midweek travel woes

But given the well-known post-Champions League malaise [big team plays midweek, slumps the next weekend] old Frankie Rich [Señor Rico] would have been rubbing his hands in glee.

Iniesta out, two Liga defeats on the trot, Mathieu struggling for fitness, ditto Luis Suárez re match-sharpness – now a broken plane and broken night’s sleep.

But well might he pray.

Barcelona’s functional hotel in down-town Almería is a business and convention centre [the glamour!] and that’s just what they’ll want at the Estadio Juegos Mediterráneos – taking care of business and sticking to convention.

Almería have never beaten Barcelona home or away – that’s the convention.

VERZA OUT OF TUNE: Almeria will need Verza to find his scoring touch to beat Barca

Last season the Andaluz team produced shocks – defeating Atlético, Valencia and Real Sociedad. But here’s the rub. Verza scored four goals across those three big scalp removals but he’s got just one this season.

Of Almería’s three other leading scorers last season, Rodri, Vidal and Oscar Díaz they are now scattered across 1860 Munich, Sevilla and Valladolid.

Defender Oscar Trujillo [Born Madrid 1987] promised to make the game: “Ugly and long” for Barcelona and Almería have been heavily practising corners [from which two of their eight goals have come this season] and free kicks as their main weapons on Saturday afternoon.

An early game after a tiring European trip against a team scrapping for survival and promising to make the game a bit Quasimodo might give you a hunch for Almería upsetting the odds.

But Barcelona showed a new attitude in Amsterdam, worked brutally hard and looked like a side which knew precisely where they’d gone wrong in the previous two matches.

Particularly the moving of Suárez to centre-forward, from right wing, made Barça look potent again. Messi’s movement and form was, suddenly, joyous. I think Luis Enrique’s side might tuck this one away – back Messi [a double], Rakitic and Suárez even if he gets one coming off the bench.

Almeria 14/1, Barcelona 1/5, Draw 11/2 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

Liverpool v Chelsea MBS

Real Madrid v Rayo Vallecano, Saturday 7pm

This is where you have to feel a bit of sympathy for Paco Jémez. A year and a week ago these two clubs met, at the Vallecas, and it was a fabulous contest – 3-2 to Los Blancos. Carlo Ancelotti was so impressed with how Jemez’s team played – tactics, possession, attacking verve, pressing – that he got in touch with the former Spain centre-back and asked if he could come watch Rayo train one day. What an astonishing compliment. Spin it as you like but within a month Madrid were playing 4-3-3, thrilling with their intensity and en route to winning two trophies.

“We’ve got to applaud a team with such an enjoyable playing style” Ancelotti said Friday. “Rayo are a great example of what Spanish football stands for. “Despite fighting against relegation they play well and they play attackingly. “It’s a great thing, very, very positive”.

A RAYO OF INSPIRATION: Madrid’s minnows inspired Ancelotti last season

From that day to this Jemez has had to cope with losing 19 players, signing another 19 [they released or sold 13 in summer 2013 and signed 18 making it a gross turnaround of 71 players in two summers] yet still produce attractive, winning, tactically daring and technically admirable football. That he’ll one day be given charge of one of La Liga’s ‘grand’ clubs must now be a given.

For the moment, how does he cope with the world’s most in-form side?

Madrid-trained Alberto Bueno has a record of a goal every five games in La Primera and hasn’t scored for five so he might be worth a fiver anytime. Leo Baptistao is not only Rayo’s best player but suddenly in touch with the swagger and confidence he lost at parent club Atlético.

But when Los Blanco’s biggest test is how to re-incorporate the fit-again Gareth Bale then you can take it that a] this’ll be a cracker to watch and b] Madrid will hit three +

Rayo haven’t won at city neighbours Madrid since 1996 [their only away win in this fixture] and their scoring at the Bernabéu is a numerical palindrome – scored 15, conceded 51.

Bale will score, count on it, and backing Ronaldo may only be for dummies now given his mildly acceptable 17 goals in 9 league matches but, just for info, he’s got eight in six matches against Rayo.

Real Madrid 1/14, Rayo Vallecano 25/1, Draw 11/1 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

Valencia v Athletic Bilbao, Sunday 6pm

You’d forgive the Athletic players if they take garlic, lucky white heather, silver bullets, wooden stakes, kryptonite, rabbits feet and a bundle of three-leaved clovers [clovii?] to Valencia with them. It’s not that their away record to Los Che is utterly atrocious – just that the Mestalla has been a killing field for their dreams. They’d not been to any cup final for quarter of a century before the Copa Del Rey pitted them with Guardiola’s Barcelona at the Mestalla in 2009. One nil up became 4-1 down – heartbreak for the heart-bustingly proud and noisy Basque support.

VAL-HELLA: Bilbao have endured their fair share of heartbreak at the Mestalla

Aready massively disadvantaged by the loss of ex-Valencia star Aritz Aduriz, Athletic are in search of a lucky break. Aduriz has seven in all comps, without him Athletic have three goals in La Liga. Then when they were fighting for their Champions League lives in midweek a mole popped its head above ground just in time to nod the ball over keeper Gorka’s boot so that Yacine Brahimi could score into an open goal.

As for Valencia they’ve racked up the A-Z of wins. Total domination, wins from a 15 minute power play, wins when they are on the ropes… the sign of a happy, fit, well coached, well stocked team.

Their last three wins have all been by 3-1 [back that correct score again here at 12/1] with Pablo Piatti serving up six goals for team mates in those matches. Valencia have [including an Elche own goal] scored from six set plays in those three games. Shkodran Mustafi [a new German centre half] can’t stop scoring so if Mr Power is dozing this weekend, odds-wise, the stopper is worth a little tickle again at 25/1 as is Sofiane Feghouli who’s back in form. Time for a Paco Alcácer [in the Spain squad] goal too.

Valencia 8/13, Athletic Bilbao 9/2, Draw 14/5 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

Real Sociedad v Atlético, Sunday 8pm

It’s not grim oop north as far as Atleti are concerned. They’ve scored eleven times while winning their last four visits to the Anoeta.

But, this time, it’s got to be an Antoine Griezmann story. Picked up as a hopeful French kid by Real Sociedad when he was nowt but a lad [13] he became far and away their most exciting, most prolific player of recent seasons bagging over a half century of goals … before Atleti came calling. It’s funny, he’d got goals against all La Real’s other major rivals – Athletic, Real Madrid, Barcelona, Sevilla, Valencia. Just not Atlético. But they put a €24m bet on him and although Diego Simeone’s latest comment on him was that he needed to become a ‘more complete’ striker the kid is learning. Four goals in total, two last week in the win over Cordoba – he’d got to be a storybook banker to score on his return ‘home’. “I won’t celebrate if I do..”

TAKE A-NOETA: Real Sociedad’s one home win this season was against Real Madrd

Warning to the Spanish champions? La Real’s only home league win was against … the European champions and they gave them a two goal start.

As for the Basques, they’d like this to be the game before David Moyes takes over. They have a back up plan [Pepe Mel] but it’s the Scot they are determined to persuade. “That Jagoba Arrasate has been sacked is a disaster of our [the players’] making” commented captain Xabi Prieto. Presumably of the football director’s making too – selling Griezmann [sixteen goals last season] and buying Alfred Finnbogason [eight appearances and not a single goal yet]

Griezmann, Koke, Prieto and Raúl Garcia might feature on the ‘goal anytime’ menu for many this weekend.

Real Sociedad , Atlético Madrid, Draw – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

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Graham Hunter: What David Moyes has done at Real Sociedad this week and my 11/2 tip to shock the champions

Posted on January 18, 2015 by SoccerCapper

Atlético Madrid v Málaga, Saturday 3pm

This is the definition of an intriguing wee fixture carrying far more history, and ‘sizzle’ than is immediately apparent.

The reigning champions against a side which has been brutally asset-stripped since Manuel Pellegrini left.

No-brainer, right?

Hold your horses. Since Málaga drew at home to Barcelona in late September (preventing Messi and Co from getting a single effort on target and making it seem like Javi Gracia’s mob had about 15 players on the pitch) they’ve played six times and won five. Fifteen points via five back-to-back victories – one short of the club’s all-time record. Interestingly, too, the Malagueños have only won away to Atlético three times in history – but two of them have been in the last five visits (since Jan 2010).

In fact, in those last five matches at the Calderón, Málaga have two single-goal defeats (2-1 each time), two wins (0-2, 0-3) and last season’s 1-1 draw.

On which point, that draw should make this a grudge match for Diego Simeone’s lads. On the penultimate day of the season Málaga had nothing to play for, bar pride, but led 1-0 until relatively late and battled like it was for their lives. Barça drew at Elche that weekend so a win for Atlético would have meant the title and an ability to rest key players (particularly the injured Diego Costa) at the Camp Nou and get them fit and fresh for the Champions League final against Madrid which they failed to win by a handful of seconds before collapsing, exhausted, in extra time. NB the Spanish for revenge is ‘revancha’.

Foto del partido #VamosMalaga pic.twitter.com/tmFyNziDWp

— Samuel Garcia (@samuel7garcia) October 19, 2014

Nordin Amrabat, Málaga’s leading scorer (three) is out injured and although he’s not prolific I like Samuel Garcia as an anytime goalscorer at 11/2. Scored a brilliant goal at Atlético in that 1-1 draw last May, and two crackers in Málaga’s last four wins. P.S. Málaga’s last two away wins have cost the opposition coaches their jobs – Albert ‘Chapi’ Ferrer at Córdoba and Jagoba Arrasate at Real Sociedad. But if Paddy offers you odds on Diego Simeone to complete the hat-trick – politely refuse to invest your money, okay?

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Eibar v Real Madrid, Saturday 5pm

Spanish football does many things well but has made a real botch-up of the Copa Del Rey. Cup ties (coming to a Sky Sports 5 midweek soon) are now home and away, ensuring that giant-killing is now as rare as finding a genuine, full-blooded, club-wielding, 15ft giant with a long beard and a stroppy attitude. So treasure this game. It’s as close to the magic of the FA Cup 3rd round as the Spanish game has.

The world’s best-known club, against one from a Basque town of 27,000 inhabitants. Played in a stadium which houses fewer than 6000 spectators, with several hundred watching from the terraces of tower blocks which surround the partially-open Ipurúa ground. This is Eibar’s first time in the top league in 74 years but they’ve played Madrid at home once before, in the Cup 10 years ago. A bonkers night which finished 1-1 but during which Iker Casillas had to excel.

The even better story, beyond the kitsch, is that Gaizka Garitano has got his side playing confidently, with great order and a dash of daring. The fact that Luka Modric is absent injured and Madrid’s central midfield needs re-jigging, will probably be better tested on bigger pitches than this. But elite coaches hate, just hate, that post International break threat of players having ‘relaxed’ and not yet being back in their club mindsets.

VULNERABILITY is the word which makes them lose sleep and snap irritably at the missus. Is this the moment to recommend that you back the total underdogs? I’m not certain Madrid (read Ronaldo) won’t cope. However if you wanted to favour Eibar then when they’ve had two weeks of planning, concentrated tactics and training, when Modric is out, when the game’s at Ipurúa and the referee has a record of Madrid only winning 17 of 31 games when he’s been in charge …. then there won’t be a better moment I’d venture.

Así celebró el capitán Mikel Arruabarrena su gol ante el Villarreal CF. (FotoVAVEL: Ricardo Larreina) pic.twitter.com/ozsM3lwvq1 — SD Eibar VAVEL (@Eibar_VAVEL) September 24, 2014

If the improbable is to happen Eibar would need their ‘pichichi’ Mikel Arruabarrena to score but not only should Madrid bring home the bacon, I’m sure they’ll score no matter how the game goes. Thus to win the Basques, who play in ‘Barça’ colours, would need a special ‘jack-in-the-box- goal’. Who better than Catalan, ex Barça B Abraham who scores once in a blue moon but hit an absolute pearler at Atlético this season?

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Barcelona v Sevilla, Saturday 7pm

I suggested a couple of weeks ago that Celta might win at the Camp Nou, and they did. When Barça failed to score that day it was the first time that had happened since Sevilla drew 0-0 there in October 2011.

That day the now pretty-much-forgotten Javi Varas seemed to have a personal grudge against Messi capped by saving his 90th min penalty.

Now it’s Unai Emery’s Sevilla who visit the Camp Nou and, like Celta, they have the pace, the technique, the attitude and the counter attack to win. Particularly following an international fortnight which can leave elite players sloppy and sluggish in its aftermath.

Messi will face Beto for the second time in 5 days pic.twitter.com/KEIsNnbQ8s

— Hzz. (@fcbtitto) November 22, 2014

Perhaps the best reason to suggest that won’t happen this time is, again, the Messi/Sevilla goalkeeper situation. Emery (who’s never beaten Barça as a coach) suddenly has doubts about the hero of last season, Beto, and the keeper has looked gaffe-prone. Messi keeps missing chances which he’d normally bury but he’s still getting goals and assists thus when he re-calibrates by a few millimetres and overtakes the all-time La Liga scoring record (two goals to overtake Zarra) then you’d guess a splurge of hitting the net will follow such a pressure release. More, Luis Suárez utterly changed Barcelona two weeks ago when they played poorly at Almeria but won. You’d take both teams to score, perhaps an M’Bia header for Sevilla but both Messi and Suárez to save some Catalan blushes.

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Deportivo v Real Sociedad, Saturday 9pm

Hail to the Scotia Nostra in Spain. Jack Harper, a talented young striker at Real Madrid, Ian Cathro, assistant coach at Valencia and now David Moyes in charge of Royalty. La Real have shown this season that when they play with pace and confidence they’ll give anyone a game. Fortunate beyond belief to squeeze past Aberdeen the effort absolutely knackered them and they’ve only managed to beat the Russian Cup finalists, the Spanish Champions and the European champions since.

David Moyes believes the @RealSociedad job is his biggest challenge & also believes #LaLiga is superior to the #BPL. pic.twitter.com/CNgJ6eiETS — Lineups (@LineupsApp) November 14, 2014

All week Moyes has worked hardest on two things – winning the ball back aggressively and quickly when it’s lost and the strategy of set plays.

La Real go to a ground where they’ve won just six times in 36 visits, just twice in the last 10.

Depo, in the hands of a talented coach in Victor Fernández (do the names Nayim, David Seaman, Paris and 1995 help remind you who he is) are short of goals, short of talent, really, but they whipped Valencia 3-0 when Los Ché turned up lacking in intensity and concentration.

Can a foreign coach who has had to work through an interpreter and has only really been in charge for eight or so sessions impose his wishes, conquer La Real’s notoriously fragile confidence away from home and squeeze goals out of the under-performing Carlos Vela, Imanol Agirretxe or Alfred Finnbogason? Yes, by jove, yes he can! No worse than a score draw, Vela and Agirretxe to help out there and possibly even a 1-2 away beginning. Go on, Moysie.

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Graham Hunter La Liga Preview: A potential 10/1 Real Madrid blank and goals all round between Barcelona and Valencia

Posted on January 18, 2015 by SoccerCapper

Málaga v Real Madrid. Saturday 7pm

I’m sure that there are many who have a punt based on superstition, hunches – call it what you will. If you are one of that relentlessly intuitive band of gamblers then you’ll have a cheeky wee fiver on Real Madrid not scoring at Málaga on Saturday at 10/1.

Reason? Carlo Ancelotti’s team has won fifteen straight matches in La Liga, the Champions and Copa del Rey and in doing so they’ve equalled the all-time record throughout Real Madrid’s history.

It’s only happened twice before – under the great Miguel Muñoz in 1960/61 during the Di Stefano, Puskas, Gento era when Los Blancos won five straight European Cups, and under Jose Mourinho in 2011/12.

The Muñoz team had just been knocked out of ‘their’ European Cup by Barcelona and took it out on Liga opponents. Fifteen straight wins. Fifty seven goals in the process.

The Mourinho team ended their run via a 1-3 home defeat to Barça but prior to that won five Champions League matches and ten Liga matches on the trot. Hold on…. fifty seven goals in the process.

THAT’s YOUR LOTTI: Will Real Madrid’s 15 game winning streak come to an end this Saturday? (pic: Inpho)

No, you’ll never believe it. Ancelotti’s fifteen wins on the bounce have yielded … go on, guess. Yes, fifty seven goals.

So if you believe in momentum and the power of a tremendously confident squad led by the irrepressible Cristiano Ronaldo then it’s money on Madrid to win at the Rosaleda and make all-time history.

But if you’re hung-up on signs and numerical patterns then Madrid have won their fifteen games, scored their 57 goals and .. that’s their lot.

A little more help you say? Málaga are sixth, close enough to the pack that if they’d won at Atlético at the weekend they’d have gone fourth equal. Madrid looked laboured for the first time in weeks while winning 1-0 at Basel midweek. Toni Kroos admits: “I’m tired” This should be their first firm test of playing without the injured Luka Modric against a team which knows how to stretch their midfield if they aren’t positionally shrewd. However perhaps the most persuasive factor is that Málaga can’t really afford to have one, never mind three, influential players missing. Amrabat and Juanmi [goals disappearing out the window] are both out injured while in midfield their natty little organiser, Camacho, is suspended.

Last week’s red for Samuel García has been rescinded … but is that really enough to balance out the losses? No, probably
not. Perm from Bale, Ronaldo and Isco, returning to his home ground, to see Madrid through.

PS, for anyone who hasn’t lumped on the league title yet each of the previous 15 game winning runs ended with Madrid winning the title. Hint, hint.

Malaga 8/1, Draw 4/1, Real Madrid 1/3 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

Atlético v Deportivo La Coruña. Sunday 11am

These midday kick-offs are a relative novelty in Spain – a football nation just waking up to the fact that there may, just may, be a reason why the Premier League, with less skill and flair, is economically dominant around the world. Now, key markets [Asia, the Gulf] will watch this game in their afternoon rather than [via Spain’s horrible 9pm Sunday kick-off] in the middle of the night.

There’s a knack to playing these early matches and that’s for Atlético that’s to eat Depo for breakfast.

The champions haven’t lost at home for 26 games [twenty wins, six draws] and it’s over a decade since Depo last took a point at the Calderón on a day when Diego Simeone was on the bench, but as a 75th minute sub rather than as boss.

Also on the same bench that day was Toché – now 31, now playing for Depo and currently their equal top scorer with two. Which tells you just about all that’s needed. Depo have four goals on the road [six games] and twelve all season. Meanwhile during Atlético’s last seven home games they’ve won the lot, scored 23 times and looked increasingly powerful. During that run Mandzukic has five, Griezmann four, Raúl García three, Koke two and Godín two. Cholo Simeone’s reign has been defined by his team winning games like this when Madrid and Barcelona are away from home and there’s just the sniff of an opportunity to close the gap at the top. Take your pick [Griezmann], but back the champs.

Atlético 1/6, Draw 6/1, Deportivo 16/1 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

Valencia v Barcelona. Sunday 8pm

There’s no getting around the fact that, traditionally, this is Apache territory for Barça. Across their decorated history they’ve lost to Valencia at the Mestalla in: the 1961 Inter City Fairs Cup final first leg 6-2; the 1980 Cup Winners Cup quarter final first leg 4-3; the 1999 Spanish Supercup second leg 1-0; the 2000 Champions League Semi Final first leg 4-1, the 2008 Copa Del Rey semi final 3-2. Major defeats. But it was nearly as seismic last season at the Camp Nou when Valencia won 3-2 – three points which if Barcelona had taken, it now transpires, they’d have won the title.

The deduction is that despite Barcelona’s nine goals in their last two games and Valencia’s derby defeat to Levante last week there’s no way that an away win is a ‘gimme’.

Luis Enrique’s team appear to have found their best form of the season, or at least their most clinical finishing. Turgid in the first half against Sevilla last week they erupted via Leo Messi’s record-breaking second half and then trampled all over APOEL in Cyprus. But their manager has a disturbing unwillingness to play the same XI consistently, often changing the midfield and back four.

For Barça two key figures are Gerard Piqué and Messi. The latter has two hat tricks in two matches and appears both electric-quick and happy in his football. The former has put together three games, for Spain v Germany, and the last two club wins, where he’s played with confidence, form and passed the ball superbly.

Perhaps for Valencia it’s Diego Alves and Álvaro ‘the Beast’ Negredo. The keeper reserves his very best form for Barça – I’ve seen him make umpteen indescribably good saves in games where he stands between the Catalans and a humiliation for his side. Negredo scored his last goal in Spanish football against Barcelona [2-0 ahead, 3-2 defeat with Sevilla] and knocked the Blaugrana out of the cup with a goal and an assist for the Andalucians in 2010.

The most intriguing game of the weekend, both teams will score, Negredo will get off the mark, Messi will get another couple, Valencia have the capacity to win but Barcelona’s extraordinary goal power suggests they’ll do no worse than a score draw and quite possibly win 3-2.

Valencia 9/2, Draw 16/5, Barcelona 4/7 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

Sevilla v Granada. Sunday 4pm

The theme here is: ‘define crisis?’. After their defeat in Holland to Feyenoord on Thursday Sevilla, by their demanding standards, feel like they are in free-fall. They’ve won just once in five matches, tumbling from top equal with Barcelona on Matchday 9, to fifth and seven points off leaders Madrid today. In the Europa League if they lose their last group game [at home] to HNK Rijeka the holders will be eliminated.

At which point Granada can assume their Monty Python ‘Four Yorkshiremen’ personality and sneer: ‘That’s nothing! You’ve got it easy … we’d lick the sweat off a tramp’s socks to have it that good’.

Joaquín Caparrós’ team has scored just twice since September and, in fact, seven la Liga players have scored more than Granada’s entire squad this season. No, not just Messi and Ronaldo but guys like Celta’s Larrivey and Sunday afternoon’s threat – Carlos Bacca.

To add to the woes both Riki and Rochina are out injured, further damaging Caparrós’ ability to return to the club he did so much to ‘grow’, and register a needed win. Sevilla have to marshall energy quickly after their defeat in Rotterdam.

Granada’s main problem is their striker El-Arabi who hit twenty goals over the previous two seasons but just one this. Perhaps it’s his moment? For Sevilla Kevin Gameiro’s return isn’t yet yielding the goals he’s due so the responsibility falls squarely on Bacca.

Sevilla 4/9, Draw 10/3, Granada 13/2 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

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Barcelona v Malaga – Saturday 3pm

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Cordoba v Valencia – Saturday 5pm BET NOW: MOBILE | DESKTOP

Atletico Madrid v Almeria – Saturday 7pm BET NOW: MOBILE | DESKTOP

Real Sociedad v Sevilla – Sunday 11am BET NOW: MOBILE | DESKTOP

Elche v Real Madrid – Sunday 8pm BET NOW: MOBILE | DESKTOP

Real Madrid v Deportivo Saturday 5pm

Valencia v Getafe Sunday 11am

Barcelona v Levante Sunday 4pm

Celta Vigo v Atlético Madrid Sunday, 8pm

Real Madrid v Real Sociedad, Saturday 3pm

Eibar v Atlético Madrid, Saturday 5pm

Barcelona v Villarreal,Sunday 8pm

Málaga v Valencia, Monday 7.45pm

Córdoba-Real Madrid Saturday 3pm

Elche-Barcelona Saturday 5pm

Atlético-Rayo Vallecano, Saturday 7pm

Valencia v Sevilla, Sunday 8pm

Villarreal v Barcelona, Sunday 6pm

Real Sociedad v Real Madrid, Sunday 8pm

Rogered in Russia

Deportivo la Coruña v Real Madrid

A cautionary tale about Real’s weaknesses

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Levante v Barcelona

Levante don’t like scoring

Atlético v Celta Vigo

Heads you win

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Villarreal [7th] v Real Madrid [5th] – Saturday 3pm

Barcelona [1st] v Granada [8th] – Saturday 5pm

Atlético [3rd] v Sevilla [1st] – Saturday 7pm

Almería v Barcelona, Saturday 3pm

Real Madrid v Rayo Vallecano, Saturday 7pm

Valencia v Athletic Bilbao, Sunday 6pm

Real Sociedad v Atlético, Sunday 8pm

Atlético Madrid v Málaga, Saturday 3pm

Eibar v Real Madrid, Saturday 5pm

Barcelona v Sevilla, Saturday 7pm

Deportivo v Real Sociedad, Saturday 9pm

Málaga v Real Madrid. Saturday 7pm

Atlético v Deportivo La Coruña. Sunday 11am

Valencia v Barcelona. Sunday 8pm

Sevilla v Granada. Sunday 4pm

Cordoba v Valencia – Saturday 5pm
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Atletico Madrid v Almeria – Saturday 7pm
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Real Sociedad v Sevilla – Sunday 11am
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Elche v Real Madrid – Sunday 8pm
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